作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨张铭心 图 源丨2 1世纪经济报道 梁远浩 摄 3月以来，人民币汇率月线上呈现稳中有升趋势。 月内，美元自高位回落，美国总统特朗普的关税政策落地不及此前市场预期，加之关税政策反 复导致市场对美经济前景担忧，美元指数持续走低，在岸、离岸人民币汇率自3月首个交易日 （3月3日）的7 . 2 9 3 1、7 . 3 0 2 6一度升破7 . 2 3。 3月1 7日、3月1 8日离岸和在岸人民币汇率分 别触及月内最高值 ，为7 . 2 2 6 2、7 . 2 2 1 6。 北京时间3月2 0日凌晨，美联储议息会议决定将联邦基金目标利率维持在4 . 2 5％至4 . 5％区间 不 变 。 同 时 ， 美 联 储 将 2 0 2 5 年 美 国 关 键 通 胀 指 标 PCE 同 比 增 速 从 1 2 月 预 估 的 2 . 5% 上 调 至 2 . 7%、核心PCE同比增速从1 2月预估的2 . 5%上调至2 . 8%。 点阵图显示，1 9位美联储官员中，有4位预计2 0 2 5年不降息，有4位预计将降息1次，9位预计 降息2次，2位预计降息3次及以上。中金公司分析称，点阵图显示2 0 2 5 ...

GUIDE 摘要 光大证券：市场虽然调整，但趋势并没改变； 华 泰证券 中信证券：预计美联储年内降息不超过2次； 华泰证券：坚定看好中国资产价值重估行情演绎。 光大证券 市场虽然调整，但趋势并没改变 光大证券表示，观望情绪升温，导致市场连续缩量。展望后市， 市场虽然调整，但趋势并没改变，预 计市场大概率延续震荡向上的态势 ；在连续缩量的背景下，热点轮动的风格或将继续。 中信证券 预计美联储年内降息不超过2次 中信证券研报称，美联储2025年3月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。本次点阵图显示今年 目标利率中枢为3.9%，与2024年12月会议点阵图持平，同时上调今年通胀预测和失业率预测、下调经 济增速预测。预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次。 坚定看好中国资产价值重估行情演绎 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘表示， 近期恒生指数表现依然强劲，且部分热点呈现扩散趋势，主 要受三重逻辑支撑 ：科技股企业盈利较强，经济初现企稳迹象，政策预期提振信心。展望未来，这 三重逻辑整体向积极方向发展的概率正在上升，港股相对收益仍有支撑。中长期而言，仍旧坚定看 好中国资产价值重估行情演绎。 免责声明 以上观点来自相关机构， ...

田门宏源证券 教你识破 6 角套路 近年来, "飞单" 事件屡见不鲜，部分案 件中投资者权益受损严重。那么,什 么是"飞单"，投资者如何识别和防范 "飞单",今天我们就来为您揭开"飞 单" 的真面目~ ,什么是飞单? 投资防骗指南 "飞車"是金融行业的一个通俗用语: "飞单" 行为一般都会向投资者承诺保本保 收益或预期收益,甚至承诺高收益低风险或 者高收益无风险,并要求投资者通过非金融 机构营业场所柜台、官网、官方APP等正规 渠道购买或者将购买资金直接划付到第三方 银行账户。"飞单"行为会严重损害投资者 资金安全,侵害投资者合法权益。 根据《证券公司代销金融产品管理规定》等 相关规定，证券公司应当对代销金融产品业 务实行集中统一管理，禁止证券公司分支机 构擅自代销金融产品。 下飞单的特点有哪些? "高收益"、"低风险" "飞单"的金融产品通常会被包装成"高收 益"、"低风险",但我们知道,在资本市场 中,风险和收益是相对应的,高收益往往意 味着高风险,所谓的"高收益低风险"有悖于 常理。实际上"飞单"产品往往不能按期兑付 收益,进而损害投资者的合法权益。 发行方可能存在风险 "飞单"的成因是一些机构希望证券 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it can be inferred that the banking sector is viewed positively with a performance increase of +1.42% on March 19 [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the banking sector has shown resilience and growth amidst market fluctuations, driven by a rebalancing of market styles and significant capital inflows [5]. - The overall market performance on March 19 indicates mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Index up by 0.12%, reflecting varied investor sentiment across sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 19, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.06%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 1.18%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 0.28%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.12% [3][4]. - The best-performing sectors included banking (+1.42%), utilities (+1.28%), automotive (+0.67%), home appliances (+0.6%), and non-ferrous metals (+0.26%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-2.47%), electronics (-1.59%), media (-1.51%), computing (-1.43%), and conglomerates (-1.17%) [3][4]. Bond Market Insights - The report discusses the bond market, indicating that the current tightening of liabilities among major banks may stem from a shift in the central bank's stance. The report suggests that the long-term yields may not have fully adjusted yet, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach an upper limit of 2.0%-2.1% and the 30-year yield at 2.3%-2.4% [6]. - It emphasizes that the behavior of financial institutions regarding wealth management and funds will be crucial in the upcoming market adjustments, as previous reliance on trust mechanisms is diminishing [6]. Credit Bond Market Analysis - The report notes that the Chinese bond market typically experiences rapid declines followed by prolonged recoveries. It highlights that the speed of recovery corresponds to the speed of adjustment, with lower-grade city investment bonds showing delayed recovery [8]. - The analysis indicates that the recent market downturn was influenced by a combination of factors, including tightening liquidity, policy signals from the central bank, and shifts in market sentiment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The spring capital market forum hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the emergence of new core assets in China, particularly in the domestic computing power chain, which are expected to expand to a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars [1][2]. Group 1: New Core Assets - The new core assets, including domestic computing power chains, cloud applications, edge AI, and physical AI, are identified as having the potential for a market value expansion to hundreds of billions [2]. - Approximately 30% of traditional core assets, such as LED, security, service robots, engineering machinery, integrated circuits, lithium batteries, national joint-stock banks, cloud services, and medical services, have already shown signs of operational recovery [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The A-share market is currently in a volatile phase, and a breakthrough requires the support of core assets rather than scattered themes [2]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 includes policy advancements in technology, supply-side reforms, and consumer promotion, which are expected to drive market growth [2]. - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for thematic investments in A-shares, driven by factors such as funding preferences, technological catalysts, and policy implementation [4][5]. Group 3: Consumption and Economic Policies - Consumption is highlighted as a second main investment theme alongside technology, with a focus on the "self-care economy" and "initial public offering economy" [4]. - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that monetary policy will support consumer demand recovery, while fiscal policy will aim to enhance social security and resolve debt issues [4]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a bull market phase, characterized by necessary asset allocation, significant available positions, and high valuation tolerance [7]. - The potential for further investment in Hong Kong stocks is substantial, with a theoretical capacity to increase by over 600 billion HKD [7]. - Valuation opportunities remain in various sectors, including internet, hard technology, automotive, and biopharmaceuticals, indicating room for profit margin recovery and valuation expansion [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaging in rural revitalization efforts, aligning with national policies and utilizing its financial expertise to support agricultural development and poverty alleviation initiatives [1][6]. Financing and Investment - The company is expanding financing channels to support rural revitalization, utilizing methods such as bond issuance and asset-backed securities to raise funds for poverty-stricken areas and agricultural enterprises [2][3]. - In 2024, the company assisted Hebei Province's agricultural group in issuing a targeted debt financing tool amounting to 250 million yuan, aimed at promoting agricultural concentration and scale [2]. - The total financing scale for real economy services reached 87.22 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase, with 2.467 billion yuan raised through rural revitalization bonds [3]. Talent Development - The company is implementing talent support programs to enhance financial literacy and professional skills in targeted rural areas, conducting various training sessions on investment and government funding [4]. - It has established partnerships with local party organizations to strengthen grassroots governance and promote community engagement in rural revitalization efforts [4]. Targeted Assistance Measures - The company has committed 7 million yuan in targeted assistance funds for key rural revitalization projects in Xintian County, alongside additional donations to support local agricultural initiatives [5]. - Since 2016, the company has executed 122 assistance projects in Xintian County, benefiting over 400,000 people and fostering the development of various agricultural industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of the 2025 non-public corporate bonds by Beijing Tongzhou State-owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd. indicates a strong financing capability and a positive outlook for future development in line with the Beijing urban sub-center plan [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond, referred to as "25 Tongzi 01," has an issuance scale of 660 million yuan, a term of 3+2 years, an AA+ rating, and a coupon rate of 2.24% [1] - The funds raised from this bond issuance will be used entirely to repay interest-bearing debts, reflecting a strategic focus on debt management [1] - This issuance marks the second approval for corporate bond issuance in 2023, achieving a new low in financing costs for the issuer [1] Group 2: Company Background and Future Prospects - Tongzhou State-owned Capital Company is authorized by the Tongzhou District government to conduct primary land development and manage state-owned assets in the district [1] - The company’s main business includes real estate sales, land consolidation, infrastructure construction, and management of related state-owned assets, highlighting its significant role and growth potential [1] - The future business development prospects are promising due to the implementation of the Beijing urban sub-center plan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after three years of economic structural transformation, the share of real estate and its industrial chain in China's economy has decreased from 18% in 2020 to 10%-11% in 2024, while the share of strategic emerging industries has increased from 11.7% in 2020 to 14.1% in 2024, demonstrating initial success in the transition from old to new economic drivers [1] Economic Policy Outlook - The 2025 Two Sessions will feature a monetary policy that focuses more on the broad price system, while fiscal policy will retain reasonable space to address external challenges and weak domestic demand in a low inflation environment [1] - CITIC Securities believes that monetary policy will utilize both total and structural tools to improve the wealth effect for residents, thereby gently restoring consumer demand [1] - Fiscal policy is expected to moderately expand, focusing on enhancing social security to increase residents' marginal propensity to consume, as well as addressing debt issues and expanding investment to support economic growth [1] Economic Growth Forecast - After years of structural adjustments and innovation accumulation, China's economy is poised for a rebound [1] - Considering the potential drag of tax increases on the economy, which may primarily manifest in the second and third quarters, along with trends in domestic demand, inventory cycles, and profit cycles, CITIC Securities predicts a "U"-shaped growth for the economy in 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to remain around 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The merger between Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. will result in Guotai Junan inheriting all assets, liabilities, businesses, personnel, contracts, qualifications, and other rights and obligations of Haitong Securities from the effective date of the merger [1] Group 1 - Haitong Securities' legal rights and obligations from documents signed before the merger will be inherited by Guotai Junan [1] - Guotai Junan will complete the registration of its name change and will conduct business and management activities under the new name [1] - Guotai Junan will continue to provide custody and operational outsourcing services previously offered by Haitong Securities [1] Group 2 - All asset management products previously managed by Haitong Securities, including public funds and private asset management plans, will have their custodian changed to Guotai Junan from the effective date of the merger [1] - Guotai Junan will inherit all rights and obligations as the custodian for these products, ensuring seamless custody services [1] - Guotai Junan will also continue to provide professional and efficient fund services as the fund service institution under relevant agreements [1]

文/梧桐兄弟 3月17日，湘财股份（600095）、大智慧（601519）分别发布《关于筹划重大资产重组的停牌公告》，湘财股份有限公司（以下简称"湘财股份"）与上海大智慧 股份有限公司（以下简称"大智慧"） 正在筹划由湘财股份通过向大智慧全体 A 股换股股东发行A股股票的方式换股吸收合并大智慧并发行A股股票募集配套资金 （以下简称"本次重组"）。 十年前的2015年，大智慧拟以85亿元收购湘财证券，后因合规性并购计划未果。此次是两家公司又一次"重组"。截至3月14日收盘，湘财股份股价报6.89元/股， 总市值为197亿元；大智慧股价报9.01元/股，总市值为181亿元。 成立日期：1994年3月25日 注册资本：2,859,187,743 元 | 今井 | I | 最高 | 10.00 | 成交量 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 6.89 | 最低 | - | 成交额 | I | | 换手率 | i | 市盈(TTM) | 171.25 | 总市值 | 197.00亿 | 本次重组的基本情况如下： 一、吸并方的基本情况 公司名称：湘财股份有 ...