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请注意存款惊现“利率倒挂”农行5年期利率反超3年,存10万多拿1000
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 23:25
Core Insights - The recent phenomenon of "interest rate inversion" at Agricultural Bank of China, where the 5-year deposit rate exceeds the 3-year rate, reflects complex economic conditions and liquidity management strategies within the banking system [1][3] - This inversion is not isolated, as 17 banks across China have reported similar occurrences, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [3] - The inversion indicates banks' cautious outlook on the medium to long-term economic prospects, with expectations of further interest rate declines [4][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Inversion - Agricultural Bank's 3-year large deposit certificate rate is 2.05%, while the 5-year rate is 2.15%, leading to an additional interest of approximately 1000 yuan for a 100,000 yuan deposit over 5 years [1] - Over 35% of city commercial banks in China exhibit some form of interest rate inversion as of June 2025 [3] - The inversion is attributed to the current economic transition in China, with GDP growth stabilizing around 4.8% and the central bank implementing two interest rate cuts since early 2024 [3][4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The inversion reflects banks' strategies to lock in current funding costs amid expectations of declining future rates [3][4] - Agricultural Bank's long-term loans account for 67.3% of its total loans, indicating a preference for attracting long-term deposits [3] - The phenomenon is part of a broader trend observed globally, with 12 economies experiencing similar situations, particularly in Japan and the Eurozone [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The interest rate inversion presents an arbitrage opportunity for depositors, but families must consider their liquidity needs for future expenses [4][5] - Investors are advised to adopt flexible asset allocation strategies, including diversifying into various deposit products and considering fixed-income investments like government bonds [5][6] - Different banks are employing varied strategies to address the inversion, with some offering tiered deposit products to balance yield and liquidity [6]
拨云鉴粤——2025广东年中经济观察
作为中国经济"排头兵",广东正处于爬坡进阶关键期。上半年,广东GDP增长4.2%,连续三个季度回 升。关键指标暖意萌动,动能转换纵深演进,科创新质能竞涌,叠加印证了其强劲韧性、稳健底色和向 好态势。为解码广东经济破浪前行的密码,我们特别策划推出《拨云鉴粤——2025广东年中经济观察》 专题报道,锚定七大向新坐标(603040),透视广东经济高质量发展内在肌理。 广东求解消费密码:1.5亿人背后的新场景和新供给 【14版】竞逐新赛道 引爆"超级场景":广东机器人"上天入海"的进化密码 中国平安"五篇大文章"答卷更新,市场投下"信心票" 【15版】激活新消费 从中心城区到城市中心:禅城用岭南烟火让年轻人"买单" 【16版】开放新活力 一席开放的盛宴:从广交会到链博会,广东外资外贸双进击 第一批"好房子"来了,陶瓷企业率先开启"品质革命" 【17版】人才新红利 产教融合向深:广东如何练成"工程师大省"? 【18版】国企新使命 【19版】金融新质观 广东解题科技金融:国资创投引领,银行保险多元赋能 【20版】湾区新矩阵 解码东莞韧性:下好做优增量盘活存量一盘棋 解码广东国资向"新"力:靠科技支点挑起产业大梁 锚定"三 ...
加拿大央行连续第三次宣布维持基准利率不变 若经济恶化仍可能降息
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 22:29
加拿大央行在周三宣布维持基准利率在2.75%不变,为连续第三次会议按兵不动。此举符合市场和经济 学家的广泛预期。央行在声明中强调,尽管美国加征关税带来不确定性,若经济进一步走弱、通胀压力 受控,仍可能进一步降息。 此外,央行预计2025年通胀率将从年初预测的2.3%下降至1.9%,部分反映联邦政府取消碳税对消费者 的影响。 加拿大国家银行分析师表示,央行虽然没有明确释放9月17日会议将降息的信号,但当前政策措辞并未 终结宽松周期。加拿大帝国商业银行经济学家则认为,未来经济数据将比本次声明措辞更关键。 新闻发布会期间,央行高级副行长罗杰斯补充称,央行的资产负债管理计划保持不变,目标结算余额区 间仍维持在500亿至700亿加元之间。 麦克勒姆最后指出,尽管近期特朗普政府与多国达成部分贸易协议,缓解了全球贸易战风险,但这些协 议仍暗示美国并未重回"开放贸易"模式。他表示,加拿大出口至美国的有效关税率自年初以来已上升约 5个百分点,加美贸易局势的不确定性正抑制消费者与企业支出意愿。 行长蒂夫.麦克勒姆表示,核心通胀近期虽有反弹,但央行对其持续性并不确定。同时,加元升值正在 抑制进口成本,就业市场也出现缓和迹象,有助于 ...
广发银行做好普惠金融服务 让金融活水精准滴灌千企万户
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-30 22:05
Core Viewpoint - Small and micro enterprises are crucial for economic growth, job creation, and innovation, and Guangfa Bank is committed to enhancing financial support for these enterprises while aligning its development with social and economic progress [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - Guangfa Bank's inclusive finance loans for small and micro enterprises showed a positive trend in the first half of 2025, with loan growth exceeding the average growth rate of all loans by 2.08 percentage points [1] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued inclusive loans decreased by 32 basis points compared to the beginning of the year, and the non-performing loan ratio for these loans is below the tolerance plan value [1][2] - The bank has established a diverse range of inclusive financial products, including "Science and Technology Loans" and "Easy Loans," to meet the varied needs of small and micro enterprises [2] Group 2: Rural Revitalization Efforts - Guangfa Bank is actively involved in rural revitalization, with inclusive agricultural loans growing over 9% compared to the beginning of the year [3] - The bank has launched specialized financial products like "Agricultural Loans" and "Pineapple Loans" tailored to local agricultural industries, particularly in Guangdong [3] - By the end of June, the bank had issued over 310 billion yuan in loans related to the "Hundred Million Project," with nearly 70 billion yuan added in 2025 [3] Group 3: Coordination Mechanism for Financing - Following the establishment of a coordination mechanism for supporting small and micro enterprise financing, Guangfa Bank has implemented an action plan focusing on optimizing design, improving mechanisms, and enhancing service quality [6] - The bank has engaged with over 120,000 small and micro enterprises, providing credit exceeding 110 billion yuan to those on the "recommendation list" [6] - Guangfa Bank aims to strengthen its role as a central enterprise member by offering more precise products and efficient services to support the high-quality development of small and micro enterprises [6]
A股融资余额创逾十年新高 上证指数创今年以来新高
7月30日,A股市场震荡,三大指数表现分化,上证指数创今年以来新高,创业板指跌逾1%。整个A股 市场超1700只股票上涨,逾50只股票涨停。市场继续轮动,钢铁、石油石化、传媒板块领涨市场,一批 高位股调整。市场成交额为1.87万亿元,较前一个交易日小幅放量。 近期,A股市场持续走强,融资资金持续加仓。截至7月29日,A股融资余额报19684.21亿元,创逾10年 新高,7月以来增加超1300亿元。 分析人士认为,市场突破后,虽然分歧仍然存在,但对于指数的长期走势维持乐观判断,增量资金入市 有望驱动市场继续上涨。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 钢铁板块领涨市场 在7月30日大跌的股票中,基康技术跌逾11%,皓元医药跌逾10%,拓山重工(001226)、中钨高新 (000657)、中银证券(601696)、东信和平(002017)等跌停,均为高位股票。 尚艺投资总经理王峥表示,市场整体呈现分化形态。一方面银行板块推升指数,另一方面市场对于题材 板块的分歧较大。8月将正式进入中报密集披露期,上市公司的业绩不确定性引发调仓。 融资余额逼近1.97万亿元 数据显示,截至7月29日,A股融资余额报19684.21亿元,创逾十年新 ...
趋势力量在加强,7月31日,A股市场还能继续上攻吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 19:56
一、中美贸易战又升级!关税谈判终于有了一些结果,延期90天的消息是关键。这算是靴子落地了,而且是个好消息。对于A股市场来说,关税谈判延期其 实是个超预期的利好。毕竟,这种问题不太可能一次性谈成,后面肯定还会有多次接触。 只要双方关系不再升级,对A股市场的情绪就是个大大的利好。综合来看,这些利好对A股市场都很重要。现在主力资金在控制各大指数稳步创新高,市场 没有加速上涨,这种稳稳当当的节奏,其实才是最好的。 二、从技术上看,三大指数涨跌不一,沪指涨0.17%,深指跌0.77%,创业跌1.62%。 大盘出现了过山车行情,早盘大盘小幅低开,随后,银行、保险、煤炭、钢铁、石油等蓝筹股全线拉升,带动大盘开始大涨,沪市最高上攻到3636点附近。 随后开始突然跳水,沪市最低回踩2593点附近,尾盘虽然出现了回升,但内资大幅流出近500亿元。大盘收出了长长的上影线,说明3650点附近开始出现了 压力。 三、对于今日A股市场的宽幅震荡走势,个人认为是非常理想的。 从高点3636到日内低点3593点,40多点的宽幅震荡会有很好的震仓洗盘效果,另外严格来说,今日还是股海这几日预判的走势,围绕3600点上下震荡,只不 过今日振幅大一 ...
鲍威尔7月新闻发布会要点总结
news flash· 2025-07-30 19:20
1、货币政策 并没有针对9月FOMC货币政策会议做决定。 那些对7月美联储决议声明持异议的人将在未来一两天披露相关信息。 2、通胀 通胀朝着2%这一目标回落的过程已经过半。 服务通胀显著放慢,商品通胀正在上升。 5、去留问题 对于是否会在美联储主席任期届满之后继续担任理事,没有透露任何消息。 6、市场反应 并没有看到就业市场走弱。 4、关税 关税传导至价格的过程可能比之前预料的更慢。 判断特朗普关税对通胀的影响仍然太早。 当前所看到的仅仅是关税通胀的开端而已,预计后续发布的通胀数据将体现出更多的关税影响。 无法在通胀问题上单独划分出关税的影响。 某些公司将从特朗普关税中获益。 面临长期住房供应短缺问题,美国并没有建设足够多的住房。 3、就业 鲍威尔新闻发布会结束后,标普500指数跌0.35%,道指跌290点跌幅0.64%,纳指跌0.06%,半导体指数 涨0.54%,银行指数跌0.63%,罗素2000指数跌0.47%。 ...
大盘午后走强,A500ETF易方达(159361)、沪深300ETF易方达(510310)等聚焦A股核心资产
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-30 19:19
Market Performance - The market saw an afternoon rise with sectors such as CRO, special steel, and super hydropower gaining, while banking, insurance, and pork sectors adjusted [1] - By the close, the CSI A500 index rose by 0.5%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.4%, the ChiNext index surged by 1.9%, and the STAR Market 50 index climbed by 1.5%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.3% [1] Index Details - The CSI 300 index, composed of 300 large and liquid stocks from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, had a rolling P/E ratio of 13.5 times, with a valuation percentile of 57.0% since its inception in 2005 [2] - The CSI A500 index, made up of 500 stocks with good liquidity across various industries, recorded a daily increase of 0.5% and a rolling P/E ratio of 15.7 times, with a valuation percentile of 60.2% since 2004 [2] - The ChiNext index, tracking 100 large and liquid stocks in the ChiNext market, rose by 1.9% with a rolling P/E ratio of 35.1 times, and a valuation percentile of 20.3% since its launch in 2010 [2] - The STAR Market 50 index, consisting of 50 large and liquid stocks from the STAR Market, increased by 1.5% with a rolling P/E ratio of 146.1 times, and a valuation percentile of 99.6% since its inception in 2020 [2] Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which includes 50 large and actively traded stocks listed in Hong Kong, saw a decline of 0.3% and has a rolling P/E ratio of 10.4 times, with a valuation percentile of 63.1% since 2002 [3]
摩根大通固定收益全球主管米歇尔:预计美国的实际关税税率将定在18%到20%之间。
news flash· 2025-07-30 18:32
摩根大通固定收益全球主管米歇尔:预计美国的实际关税税率将定在18%到20%之间。 ...
【环球财经】加拿大央行宣布继续维持基准利率不变
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-30 18:13
新华财经渥太华7月30日电(记者林威)加拿大银行(央行)30日宣布,继续将基准利率维持在当前 2.75%的水平不变。 加拿大银行说,加拿大第一季度为应对关税问题而提前出口,经济实现强劲增长,但第二季度国内生产 总值可能下降约1.5%。这种收缩主要是由于提前出口后出口急剧逆转,以及关税威胁导致美国对加拿 大商品需求下降。多项经济指标表明,自1月份以来,加拿大经济供给过剩局面有所加剧。 今年3月,加拿大银行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至2.75%,4月和6月维持基准利率不变。 (文章来源:新华社) 加拿大银行说,尽管近几周美国贸易政策有所明朗,但美国贸易行动难以预测,贸易谈判仍充满变数, 新的行业关税威胁持续存在。 加拿大银行预测,在当前关税条件下,随着出口企稳和家庭支出逐步增加,加拿大经济增速今年下半年 将回升至约1%,但经济疲软将持续到2026年。若关税问题缓和,加拿大经济增长反弹速度更快;若关 税问题升级,经济将在今年内持续萎缩。 ...