人民财讯8月4日电，新疆众和（600888）8月4日在互动平台表示，公司年产240万吨氧化铝项目预计将 于2026年上半年建成投产，该项目区位优势明显，临近港口，铝土矿运输成本低，在行业内具有成本优 势，公司目前拥有18万吨电解铝产能，公司未来的氧化铝产品主要面向其他电解铝企业销售。 ...

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, August 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, with the relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of Shunda and Arufa mining rights, the supply is expected to increase. Along with the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the surplus pressure of alumina will intensify. For electrolytic aluminum, the production of replacement capacity in Yunnan will continue to rise, and inventory accumulation may continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. Before the peak season in September, downstream stocking is expected to gradually start. For aluminum alloy, following the logic of Shanghai Aluminum during the off - season, it is expected to shift to the expectation of spread repair in the 2511 peak season. In August, the pattern of the aluminum industry's supply - demand marginal strength is expected to shift from upstream to downstream, with opportunities for the convergence of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread and the expansion of the AL2509 - AO2509 spread. Attention should be paid to the progress of the alumina anti - involution policy and the inventory accumulation cycle of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 1. Price - In July, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 3222 yuan/ton as of July 31, a monthly increase of 7.9%. Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20510 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.3%. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 19950 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 4% [5][6] 2. Spread - In July, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 129 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum changed from a premium of 40 yuan/ton to a discount of 20 yuan/ton [5] 3. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in July will increase to 88270000 tons, with a production of 7500000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. After Shandong enterprises completed regular maintenance, they returned to normal operation, and the operation in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi remained stable, with the overall operation continuing to pick up. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 43830000 tons, with a production of 3730000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. After inventory accumulation at the alloy end, the ingot - casting volume of the upstream increased, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] 4. Demand - In the off - season, downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand rhythm, and the decline in the off - season operating rate converged. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% decline compared to June. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 1.9% to 63.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 0.86% to 69.5%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3% to 50%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1.34% to 61.8%. The processing fee of aluminum rods in Henan decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while in other regions, it increased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The processing fee of aluminum poles in Guangdong remained stable, decreased by 100 yuan/ton in Shandong, and increased by 100 yuan/ton in Henan and Inner Mongolia [3] 5. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in July, alumina inventory decreased by 11400 tons to 6015 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased by 21500 tons to 115800 tons; LME inventory increased by 104100 tons to 461000 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 22400 tons to 48000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory increased by 76000 tons to 544000 tons; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6500 tons to 147000 tons [3][5]

宏观：本周（7月21日-7月25日，下同）宏观面偏向利空。海外方面，美联储公布了最新的利率决议， 一如市场预期，该央行仍将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，美元指数仍保持强势，压制金属价 格。美国劳工部1日公布最新非农业部门就业数据，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至4.2%，当月 非农业部门新增就业岗位为7.3万，低于市场预期的11万。同时，美国5月和6月份非农业部门新增就业 岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别被大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万，显示美国就业市场明显降温。此 外，近期中美经贸团队就重大议题进行深入交流，同意推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反 制措施如期展期，并将继续沟通以稳定双边经贸关系。国内方面，中共中央政治局会议部署下半年经济 工作，强调宏观政策持续发力，实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策，并推动资本市场回稳向好。央 行召开2025年下半年工作会议，会议要求坚持稳中求进工作总基调，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，防范化 解重点领域金融风险。 电解铝： 供应：国内电解铝运行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust within a short - term range [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will run in a volatile and consolidating manner [4] Aluminum Ingots - In July 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from the previous period and a 5.8% decrease year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs will be evident [4] - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. The supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down, with the inventory likely to reach an inflection point from August to September [4] - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to move within a range, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [5]

Core Insights - In July, U.S. primary aluminum imports decreased by 40% month-over-month, marking the first full month of President Trump's doubled import tariffs on raw aluminum [1] - The total amount of unwrought aluminum imported in July was 171,132 tons, down from 286,303 tons in June [1] - The average import volume for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 304,236 tons, with Canada accounting for 70% of total imports during this period [1] - Domestic aluminum inventories in the U.S. are reportedly decreasing at a rate of 40,000 to 80,000 tons per month, with total estimated inventories around 400,000 tons [1]

金融期货早评 宏观：国内政策仍将积极有为 【市场资讯】1）美国 7 月非农新增就业 7.3 万远低于预期，前两月数据大幅下修 25.8 万； 7 月失业率回升至 4.2%，符合预期，前值 4.1%；时薪同比涨幅从上修后的 3.8%上涨至 3.9%。 美联储官员：就业市场风险可能增加，还没准备提高降息预期。"新美联储通讯社"：非农 就业降温为 9 月降息打开大门，尽管通胀仍令人担忧。2）美国 7 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 48， 创九个月最快萎缩，就业指数创五年多最低。3）特朗普：若不降息，美联储理事会应"接 手掌管"。美联储理事库格勒辞职，特朗普兴奋不已，有望提前插手利率决策、布局鲍威尔 接班人。4）非农数据疲软，特朗普甩锅：拜登任命的官员编制，罢免统计局局长；引发市 场对数据完整性担忧。5）特朗普 2.0 时期首次对俄罗斯军事威胁，称下令将两艘美军核潜 艇部署至相应区域。6）老百姓买国债的利息免税标准：每月不超过 10 万。7）"2025 暑期 档电影总票房突破 70 亿，单日票房创新高。8）欧佩克+同意 9 月增产 54.7 万桶/日，消息 称下月会议或再考虑增产。9）美国贸易代表格里尔：新一轮关税"基 ...

国联民生（601456）证券研报认为，中国宏桥作为铝产业链的全球龙头，兼具周期、成长和红利属性。 国内电解铝产能天花板和下游(电网、新能源汽车)需求韧性将驱动铝价中枢上移，电解铝供需缺口预计 将显现。短期内氧化铝价格将围绕成本波动，几内亚雨季可能影响铝土矿发运，支撑氧化铝价格震荡。 中长期，"反内卷"政策将放缓氧化铝新增产能，改善过剩格局。 受益于铝价上行周期和公司成本优势，中国宏桥盈利和分红持续增长。预计2025年股息率为8.0%，当 前股价对应市盈率8.5倍，具有吸引力。预计公司2025—2027年归母净利润分别为227.59/261.69/289.69 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - In July, the U.S. aluminum imports decreased by 40% month-over-month, totaling 171,132 tons compared to 286,303 tons in June, marking the first full month of increased tariffs on aluminum [1] - The U.S. maintains its aluminum tariffs at 50% despite reaching trade agreements with several countries in July [1] - The average aluminum import volume for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 304,236 tons, with Canada accounting for 70% of total imports [1] Group 2 - As of early 2025, approximately 74,900 tons of aluminum have arrived at the Port of New Orleans, with 24,900 tons through the Port of Baltimore and 35,400 tons through the Port of Los Angeles [2] - Since January 1, a total of 635,630 tons of aluminum have been received in the U.S. [2]

氧化铝及电解铝月报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 关注库存动向 铝价震荡调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 20 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，成本端几内亚雨季影响矿石发运或对矿 价形成支撑，同时烧碱价格企稳反弹，未来成本端对 氧化铝支撑预计较好。供应端，氧化铝产能提升，但 现货供应增速有限，呈现一定程度的结构性紧缺，交 易所库存短暂提升之后再度回落至极低位置震荡。消 息面"反内卷"产能优化消息后续仍可能助推市场情 绪，预计短时 ...

Core Viewpoint - Innovation International has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Huatai International as joint sponsors [1] Company Strategy - The company strategically establishes an integrated ecosystem of "energy - alumina refining - electrolytic aluminum smelting" in Inner Mongolia and Shandong [1] - The company benefits from Inner Mongolia's abundant electricity resources and low electricity prices, as well as Shandong's geographical advantage as a major import and transit port for bauxite [1] Production and Self-Sufficiency - The company achieves a high level of electricity and alumina self-sufficiency, with an estimated electricity self-sufficiency rate of approximately 88% in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average [1] - The alumina self-sufficiency rate is also projected to reach about 84% [1] Market Position - According to the CRU report, the company's electrolytic aluminum smelting plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, is the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China based on 2024 production [1] - The company ranks as the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China [1] Industry Overview - China possesses the largest electrolytic aluminum market globally, with the industry size expected to reach approximately RMB 897 billion in 2024, accounting for about 71% of the global market [1] - Global electrolytic aluminum consumption is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% from 2025 to 2028 [1]