铝类产业日报 2025/8/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,770.00 45.00 | +140.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,184.00 -11.00 | +46.00↑ -19.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 248,343.00 | +11056.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 193,845.00 | +10870.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 13,250.00 | -800.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 103,364.00 | +14952.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,622.00 | +29.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 478,725.00 | -800.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 18, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures fluctuated and declined, basically giving back the gains since August 6. Considering the exchange's cooling measures, the loosening of the coking coal spot market, and the US expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, the futures of coke and coking coal may face pressure and shift to mid - high level oscillations in the future. Attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the stock market and risk appetite on black - series commodities [5][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On August 18, for the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures, the J2601 contract closed at 1702 yuan/ton, down 1.56%; the JM2601 contract closed at 1187.5 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. The trading volume of JM2601 was 1,808,732 lots, and the open interest was 716,091 lots, an increase of 56,595 lots. The capital inflow was 470 million yuan, while the J2601 had a capital inflow of 11 million yuan [5]. - **Spot Market**: On August 18, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Heze increased by 30 yuan/ton, while other regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Technical Indicators**: On August 18, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2601 contracts of coke and coking coal showed a divergent decline, and the green bars of the daily MACD of the 2601 contracts of coke and coking coal enlarged for two consecutive trading days [7]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: On August 15 (local time), the US government announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including 407 derivative products in the list, which took effect on August 18. On August 14, the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of the JM2601 contract of coking coal futures and adjusted the handling fee rate of coking coal futures contracts [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of coke, the coke output of independent coking plants continued to rise slowly to a new high since mid - June, while the coke output of steel mills further decreased to a new low since early February. The port coke inventory declined from a new high since the end of May, and steel mills and coking plants further reduced their inventories. The profit per ton of coke turned positive after 12 consecutive weeks of losses, and the sixth round of price increase of coke spot was implemented on August 14. In terms of coking coal, from January to July, China's coal and lignite imports decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding by 1.9 percentage points; from January to June, China's coking coal imports still showed a large decline of 7.4% year - on - year. The inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines decreased significantly in the past 8 weeks, with declines of 48.4% and 33.0% respectively. The inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills declined, and the port inventory reached a new low since early July last year. With the cooling of replenishment by steel mills and coking plants, the prices of individual coking coal spot markets declined [10]. 3.3 Industry News - In July, the national raw coal output was 38.099 million tons, a new low since May 2024, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. - As of now, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving a total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. - From April 2024 to July 2025, the "two new" policies boosted the retail and manufacturing industries, with the manufacturing sales revenue increasing by 5.8% year - on - year. - From April 2024 to July 2025, the sales of daily household appliances, audio - visual equipment, furniture, and sanitary ware increased significantly year - on - year, and the sales of service - type robot manufacturing increased by 51.1%. The new energy vehicle sales increased by 81.7% year - on - year. - In July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 66.8 million tons of crude steel, 61.73 million tons of pig iron, and 69.11 million tons of steel, all showing year - on - year and month - on - month declines. - In the first half of 2025, Jizhong Energy's revenue was 7.293 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.87%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 348 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 65.24%. - Since July, the external long - term contract thermal coal shipments of Shaanxi Coal Transportation and Marketing Group increased by 10.17% month - on - month. From January to July, Shaanxi Coal Group shipped 9.64 million tons of coal to Chongqing, including 7.91 million tons of thermal coal, accounting for 46% of Chongqing's thermal coal imports. - On August 15, China sued Canada at the WTO for its import restrictions on steel and other products. - In the first half of August 2025, the reference prices of all types of Indonesian thermal coal decreased. - In the 2024 - 25 fiscal year, the raw coal output of Australia's New Hope Corp was 16.382 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33%. - In the first half of 2025, the net loss of Russia's Raspadskaya expanded to 199 million US dollars from 99 million US dollars in the same period last year [12][13][14]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants, the production and inventory of sample mines, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [15][16][17][26][27][34].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies in China has effectively supported consumption expansion, investment stabilization, transformation promotion, and improved livelihoods, with noticeable policy effects emerging throughout the year [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth - The consumer goods replacement policies have significantly stimulated consumption, with retail sales of communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture increasing by 26.9%, 19.3%, and 18.1% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies also saw a growth of 21.7%, indicating sustained rapid growth in these sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Growth - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 19% year-on-year in the first quarter, contributing 64.6% to the overall investment growth [1] - Investment growth in sectors closely related to the "two new" initiatives, such as consumer goods manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, manufacturing technology upgrades, and raw materials manufacturing, rose by 13.5%, 8.9%, 7.2%, and 4.3% respectively [1] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - There are ongoing issues such as imbalances in the "two new" initiatives across different regions and sectors, and the need for improved efficiency in subsidy applications [1] - The government is urged to implement comprehensive measures to address these challenges to avoid negatively impacting policy effectiveness [1] Group 4: Coordination and Support Mechanisms - Local governments and relevant departments are encouraged to strengthen responsibility awareness and ensure the smooth implementation of the "two new" initiatives [2] - A national information platform is proposed to facilitate data sharing and improve the efficiency of subsidy applications and fund disbursement [2] Group 5: Financial Support and Regulation - There is a call for accelerated review and disbursement of allocated funds to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises and ensure subsidies reach consumers effectively [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide preferential loans and simplify application processes to lower financing costs for consumers and businesses [3] Group 6: Public Awareness and Engagement - Local governments are tasked with promoting the progress and benefits of the "two new" policies through various outreach activities, ensuring effective communication and community engagement [3]

Group 1 - Xi Jinping met with the President of Serbia, the leader of Myanmar, the President of Cuba, the President of Venezuela, and the Prime Minister of Slovakia during his visit to Moscow for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War [1][4][5][6][7][8] - Xi Jinping concluded his state visit to Russia and attended the 80th anniversary celebration of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, returning to Beijing on May 10 [2][9][21] - Brazilian President Lula will visit China from May 10 to 14 at the invitation of Xi Jinping [3][10] Group 2 - The summer grain production is entering a critical period, with various regions enhancing field management to ensure stable grain production [5][12] - The People's Bank of China established a service consumption and elderly re-loan program with a total amount of 500 billion yuan, aimed at boosting financial support for key service consumption sectors and the elderly industry [16] - The new policies continue to support local consumption and stabilize growth, with improvements in service processes enhancing market vitality [11]