Economic Overview - In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, while the service production index rose by 5.8%[1] - External demand showed unexpected strength with exports growing by 7.2%, surpassing the expected 5.9%, while internal demand weakened with retail sales increasing by only 3.7% compared to 4.8% in June[1] Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June and further to 3.7% in July, primarily driven by a slowdown in goods sales[1] - The sales growth of "trade-in" subsidy products fell from an average of 17.5% to 12.7%, indicating a significant impact on overall retail performance[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth dropped from 2.6% in June to 1.6% in July, with construction investment showing negative growth for the first time since August 2020, at -0.8%[1] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased from 7.5% in June to 6.2% in July, highlighting a divergence in investment performance across different sectors[2] Future Outlook - Despite potential pressures in Q4 due to high base effects and demand front-loading, there are three supporting factors for consumer growth in the second half of the year: gradual recovery in dining growth, the release of childbirth subsidies, and consumer loan interest subsidies[1] - The construction sector is expected to face continued pressure in August due to adverse weather conditions, but policy-driven financial tools may provide support in Q4[2]

Group 1 - In July, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, while service retail remained stable with a 5.2% increase from January to July [1][2] - The sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, 14.9% respectively in July [2] - The demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products has increased, leading to a year-on-year growth of 13.7% for sports and entertainment goods and 8.2% for gold and silver jewelry in July [2] Group 2 - The tourism and cultural service retail sector experienced robust growth, driven by increased travel demand during the summer, with double-digit growth in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services from January to July [2] - Online retail and emerging consumption trends are developing positively, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail from January to July, and new consumption models like live streaming shopping gaining traction [3] - The government plans to continue implementing measures to boost consumption, focusing on expanding goods consumption while fostering new growth points in service consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - A new company, Xuzhou Hukai Commerce Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 10,000 RMB, indicating a focus on a wide range of retail and wholesale activities in various consumer goods sectors [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Song Liuqing [1] - The registered capital of the company is 10,000 RMB [1] Business Scope - The company operates in general projects including daily necessities sales, clothing and accessories retail, and labor protection products sales [1] - It also engages in internet sales (excluding items requiring licenses), wholesale of textiles, clothing, and household goods, as well as sales of maternal and infant products [1] - Additional areas of operation include sales of daily ceramics, paper products, stationery, teaching models and tools, office supplies, adult products (excluding drugs and medical devices), and various types of medical devices [1] - The company is involved in the retail of home appliances, lighting fixtures, edible agricultural products, fresh fruits, building materials, and light building materials [1] - Other sales activities include pet food and supplies, livestock, metal tools, fertilizers, musical instruments, tires, wood, furniture, toys, gardening products, bags, gift flowers, packaging services, advertising design and agency, and pre-packaged food sales [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the China Retail Prosperity Index (CRPI) for August is 50.1%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, signaling a return to the expansion zone [1][3] - The analysis highlights that the increase in the CRPI is supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, including subsidies for trade-ins and childcare [1][3] - The rapid development of instant retail, which integrates online and offline shopping, is noted as a key focus in the current retail market [1] Group 2 - The commodity operation index stands at 49.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from last month, indicating a recovery in offline consumption [3][6] - The rental operation index is at 52.1%, slightly down 0.3 percentage points, but remains in a high prosperity range, driven by diversified service consumption during the summer [3][14] - The e-commerce operation index is at 49.8%, showing a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a contraction in this sector [3][23] Group 3 - The sales index for commodity operations is at 50.9%, up 2.7 percentage points, indicating improved expectations for offline retail sales [8][10] - The profitability index for commodity operations is at 50.0%, up 2.1 percentage points, suggesting a positive outlook for profitability in August [10] - The main operational cost index for commodity operations is at 48.4%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating rising cost expectations [12] Group 4 - The average single-store rental income index is at 54.2%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a positive trend in rental income expectations for rental operations [16] - The shop rental rate index is at 54.4%, slightly down 0.6 percentage points, indicating stable demand for commercial space during the summer [19] - The comprehensive operational cost index for rental operations is at 48.3%, down 0.3 percentage points, suggesting increased cost pressures [21] Group 5 - The e-commerce physical sales index is at 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in online retail sales expectations [25] - The e-commerce average transaction price index is at 51.0%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a shift in online consumption structure [27] - The e-commerce total product count index is at 49.2%, down 1.8 percentage points, indicating low inventory replenishment willingness among e-commerce businesses [28] Group 6 - The overall analysis for August indicates that the CRPI for offline commodity operations and e-commerce operations are closely aligned, while the rental operation index remains high due to summer consumption [32] - Both online and offline average transaction prices have risen, with offline at 49.1% and online at 51.0%, supported by government policies [34]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption" marks a shift in policy focus from goods consumption to service consumption, emphasizing the cultivation of supply rather than merely stimulating demand [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Opinions" outline 19 specific measures across six areas to enhance consumer capacity, cultivate demand, and improve the specialized service capabilities of financial institutions [1] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area, mentioned 13 times in the document, while goods consumption is referenced only twice [1] Group 2: Economic Context - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, showing a 2.6 percentage point improvement from December of the previous year, while service sector growth was more subdued at 6.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from December [1] - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of the old-for-new consumption policy will weaken, indicating limited growth potential for goods consumption, whereas service consumption still holds significant potential [2] Group 3: Supply-Side Focus - The "Opinions" emphasize the importance of optimizing supply alongside expanding demand, aiming for a virtuous cycle in production, distribution, and consumption [2] - Future policies may focus on increasing financing support for consumer enterprises and investing in service consumption infrastructure, including facilities for culture, sports, healthcare, and community services [3] Group 4: Consumer Confidence - The primary constraint on consumer growth is not financial access but rather macroeconomic pressures and cautious consumer sentiment regarding employment and income [4] - The "Opinions" propose measures to support employment and income growth, enhance consumer confidence, and improve financial services for small and micro enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, emphasizing the importance of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Financial Support - The guidelines identify three key areas for financial support: commodity consumption, service consumption, and new consumption [3][4]. - In commodity consumption, financial institutions are encouraged to provide various financial services for replacing old products, with a focus on supporting the recycling of old vehicles and appliances [3]. - For service consumption, the guidelines stress the need for personalized financial products and services, particularly in sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care [4]. Group 2: Strengthening Financial Supply - The guidelines propose enhancing the financial supply for both commodity and service consumption through a multi-layered financial service system, including credit support as the main channel [5][6]. - A specific measure includes a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility aimed at service consumption and elderly care, which can be accessed by major financial institutions [6]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Capacity and Supply Efficiency - The guidelines highlight the importance of increasing residents' income levels to stimulate consumption, alongside supporting entrepreneurship and wealth management [7]. - They also address the need to improve consumption infrastructure and supply chain efficiency, particularly in logistics and distribution [7]. Group 4: Optimizing the Consumption Environment - The guidelines emphasize the importance of a favorable consumption environment to boost consumer confidence, focusing on payment services, credit systems, and consumer rights protection [7].

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry in China shows signs of structural shifts with a slight decline in the retail prosperity index, indicating a need for improved consumer spending capacity [1] Retail Industry Overview - The China Retail Prosperity Index (CRPI) for June stands at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining expansion for ten consecutive months [1] - The decline in the CRPI suggests that while online retail has seen significant growth due to events like the "6.18" promotion, overall consumer spending remains insufficient [1] Sector Performance - The three main categories of the retail sector show varied performance: - The merchandise operation index is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] - The leasing operation index is at 51.3%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [1] - The e-commerce operation index is at 50.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [1] Merchandise Operations - The sales index for merchandise operations is at 49.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating weakened expectations for offline retail [2] - The profitability index for merchandise operations is at 49.0%, down 2.3 percentage points, reflecting low profit expectations for June [1][2] Leasing Operations - The average single-store rental income index is at 52.8%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in revenue expectations for leasing businesses [2] - The shop rental rate index is at 52.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, but still in the expansion zone, suggesting a decrease in rental activity [2] - The operational cost index for leasing businesses is at 50.0%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating improved cost pressure [2] E-commerce Operations - The total sales index for e-commerce is at 51.8%, up 1.2 percentage points, driven by the extended "6.18" promotional activities [3] - The online total product count index is at 51.3%, down 0.7 percentage points, showing stable inventory intentions among e-commerce businesses [3] - The e-commerce cost index is at 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a reduction in cost pressure due to government policies [3]

中新社北京6月6日电 中国商业联合会6日发布数据显示，6月份，中国零售业景气指数(CRPI)为50.1%， 较上月小幅下降0.4个百分点，连续10个月维持在扩张区间运行。 数据显示，商品经营类景气指数为49.5%，成为影响综合指数下行的主要因素。分析认为，受"618"线上 促销活动和"以旧换新"政策等因素影响，线上零售增幅明显扩大，本月消费市场呈现线上线下结构性转 移特征。综合景气指数小幅回落，表明消费能力尚需提升。 CRPI是反映当期零售业经营预期变化情况的综合指数。从行业分类看，6月零售业三大分类指数出现分 化。商品经营类指数为49.5%，较上月下降0.9个百分点。分析认为，6月份气温开始升高，线下商品零 售逐渐进入经营淡季，叠加"618"线上促销力度加大对线下商品零售产生分流效应，商品经营类企业预 期明显变弱。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 该联合会分析认为，CRPI三个分指数对比显示，6月份线上线下商品零售出现明显分化，电商经营类指 数明显上升，受"618"促销活动预期影响，线上商品经营预期有所改善。数据显示，6月租赁经营类景气 指数受平均单店租金收入、商铺出租率和经营场所增减分指数影响持续下行，但仍维持 ...

2025年6月6日，中国商业联合会发布6月份中国零售业景气指数(CRPI)。6月份，中国零售业景气指数(CRPI)为50.1%，较上月小幅下降0.4个百分点，连续10 个月维持在扩张区间运行。数据显示，商品经营类景气指数为49.5%，成为影响综合指数下行的主要因素;电商经营类景气指数为50.8%，较上月上升0.8个百 分点。 分析认为，受"618"线上促销活动和"以旧换新"政策等因素影响，线上零售增幅明显扩大，本月消费市场呈现线上线下（300959）结构性转移特征。综合景 气指数小幅回落，表明消费能力尚需提升。 一、中国零售业景气指数运行情况 从行业分类看，6月零售业三大分类指数出现分化。商品经营类指数为49.5%，较上月下降0.9个百分点;租赁经营类指数为51.3%，较上月小幅下降0.5个百分 点;电商经营类指数为50.8%，较上月上升0.8个百分点。 (一)商品经营类CRPI分析 商品经营类指数为49.5%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，降至荣枯线以下。分析认为，6月份气温开始升高，线下商品零售逐渐进入经营淡季，叠加"618"线上促 销力度加大对线下商品零售产生分流效应，商品经营类企业预期明显变弱。 构成商品 ...

中国商业联合会分析认为，"五一"假日消费有利于商品经营类企业发挥线下优势，扩大经营规模，5月 线下商品零售预期相对较好，假期外出购物依然是家庭消费的重要选择。 电商经营类指数为50.0%，较上月微降0.1个百分点，电商经营类企业总体处于稳定发展期。。构成电商 经营类CRPI的2个正向分指数电商实物总销售额和电商在线总商品数处于临界点以上，1个正向分指数 电商客单价水平和反向分指数电商经营总成本处于临界点以下。电商实物总销售额指数为50.6%，较上 月下降1.3个百分点。电商在线总商品数指数为52.0%，较上月微降0.5个百分点，表明本月电商经营类 企业备货意愿保持稳定。电商客单价水平指数为48.9%，较上月小幅上升0.6个百分点，分析认为，商品 客单价水平上升，呈现积极的消费趋势。电商总成本反向指数为49.3%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，表明 电商经营类企业成本投入有所减少。 5月零售业景气度呈现如下特点：CRPI各项分指数对比显示，5月零售业整体表现向好，商品经营类指 数明显回升，表明线下商品经营预期有所改善；数据显示，5月租赁经营类景气指数受平均单店租金收 入和经营场所增减影响出现下行，表明租赁经营类企业 ...