各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎参加我们今天晚上新消费篇这个之小熊电器深度报告的一个解读汇报首先说回到新消费今年市场热点关注度都比较高我们其实对家电新消费的思考也相对比较早在今年的三月中旬的时候就已经发了一篇关于小家电今年的 国补叠加平台反内卷然后整体的小家电相对来说今年的利润率有望经营困境反转所以这是我们在今年三月中旬的时候去观察到的从抖音平台以这个提升品牌商家的这个Li这个投流转化然后呢在这个佣金或者是这个退货率相关可以支持整个的 退货推广引发的费用的退补这些整体来讲对今年的品牌商家们整体经营环境上还是比较有利的再加上两会一开始今年的人大代表包括市场监管总局也都表态今年针对平台的整治内卷包括平台的减退款的规则全网最低价的这种比价规则平台的数量收费现象 今年都将加大监管的这种方式和手段所以在这样的一个大背景之下的话小家电整个的行业我们认为将会有望走出以前的一个叫困境过去的困境是在于要么就投流花了大量的费用但是最后就是有规模但是没有利润这个现象在24年演绎到了一个比较极致的状态小家电领域几乎所有的品牌几乎都陷入到了一个利润率的低谷 有的在亏损有的在一个点到两个点这个利润率的一个低的这么一个困境当中要么就是陷入到一种就 ...

直接为准的,所以中国的时间,就是FOB那个海运发出的时间,其实只有两个月的时间窗口,是不是可以这样理解?主持人:"可以这么理解,然后如果是这两个月,它客户可以在比如说5月12号以后,我刚才聊过是5月13号、14号、15号这有一批订单了嘛对吧,那也许客户会在5月20几号再下一批订单,就赶在这90天的窗口之内,这个也是来得及的。 所以时间也是非常紧张的然后再请教一下就是说在此之前就是说 一个月就是大家有能观望的时候因为看到就是美国的竞争关税特别高临时性的把货物放到保税仓或者临时性的货物先加拿大那个路径然后放仓库里面因为加拿大的话他有规则在一定时间内那个出境的话他可以退税的我不知道就是我们采用过这个方式没有啊哦这个方式我们没有采用我们品牌是没有采用这个方式的 这是短期的行为,我们总归制定了一个比较偏长期的行为,因为中美现在这样的一个关系情况下,实际上不太可能以后中国跟美国的关税是10%,其他国家也是10%,不太可能。 很可能是比如说中国就30%或40%东南亚某些国家是10%差个20个点的一个关税差如果像我们的品类小家电有20个点的关税差的时候是不是大部分的产品美国的需求因为这20个点的关税差就不适合在长期来说不适合 ...

我们这一次中期策略会的一个线上的系列那跟我共同组组主持电话会议的还有我们组的李翰宇那我们先有请吴总给我们做一个简单的一个开场介绍和最近的一些经济情况的分享有请 好的感谢各位老师支持小熊电器也非常感谢国泰海通组织这一次的一个策略会我先简单介绍一下公司的一个近况吧那么最近小熊的关注度也起来了那么大家应该比较关心的是小熊近期的这个业绩改善的原因那么其实回望整个2024年包括我们今年的一个秋一其实公司的一个业绩是走了一个V型的一个走势那么去年 刚开始Q1是业绩比较不错的当时大家还在沉浸在这个疫情刚恢复之后这种比较蓬勃的这个消费力那么所导致的这个业绩其实还是表现的比较不错但是进入Q2、Q3就是公司的一个业绩和利润都有一定的下滑但进入初四这个业绩的拐点就开始显现了那么当时也推了就是各种的一些国股包括公司 也是在Q2Q3这个时候去做了很多这种调整那么公司在这个Q4这个节点就公司的这个收入端还有这个利润端这种增速就是持续的会有一些改善那么进入25Q1公司的这个收入也实现了这个双位数的增长利润率也回归到了这个8到10个点的这个区间 那么呃这其中啊其实有小熊自身的努力还有就是啊整个行业竞争环境的一个改善的一个原因那么首先呢就是最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 9.6 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% to 63% [2]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by about 25% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in growth anticipated for Q2, where revenue is expected to increase nearly 40% compared to Q1 [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation, which is expected to drive profitability improvements [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 196.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.1%, 16.1%, and 14.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 19.20 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 138.2% [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 3.34 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [4] Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing internal growth while external sales are under pressure, with a stable outlook for the second quarter [4][13] - Domestic sales are benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to positive retail and shipment growth, while external sales face challenges due to high base effects and tariff disruptions [13][14] - The overall performance of listed home appliance companies is expected to remain stable with revenue growth driven by structural upgrades and efficiency improvements [13] Summary by Sections White Goods - Domestic sales growth is accelerating, while external sales are declining due to high base effects and tariff disruptions [2][14] - In April and May, air conditioner shipments increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with domestic sales up 9.5% and external sales down 6.3% [2][14] - Revenue growth for white goods companies is expected to be around double digits, with profit margins showing slight improvement [2][22] Kitchen Appliances - Kitchen appliance demand is improving due to national subsidy policies, with online retail sales growth for range hoods and gas stoves between 10%-20% [2][38] - However, the real estate sector continues to exert pressure, particularly on integrated stove companies [38] - Traditional kitchen appliance companies are expected to see improved profit margins due to declining raw material prices [38] Black Goods - The black goods segment is experiencing structural upgrades, with television sales and revenue increasing by 9.7% and 14.5% respectively during the 618 shopping festival [3][49] - Panel prices have begun to decline, which is expected to improve profitability for black goods companies [49] Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is seeing a recovery in kitchen small appliances, with online retail sales for kitchen small appliances growing by 25% during the 618 period [4][57] - However, external sales are facing short-term pressure due to tariffs and overseas factory setups [57] - Companies like Roborock and Ecovacs are expected to see significant revenue growth, with Roborock projected to grow by 40% [72]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianji New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., is forecasting a significant loss for the current reporting period, although it shows an improvement compared to the previous year [1]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders in the range of 50 million to 65 million yuan, compared to a loss of 127.72 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be between 50 million and 65 million yuan, compared to a loss of 128.28 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.10 to 0.13 yuan, improving from a loss of 0.25 yuan per share in the same period last year [1]. Performance Review and Causes - The primary reason for the loss is attributed to the oversupply in the lithium hexafluorophosphate market, leading to low sales prices that do not cover costs [1]. - The company's other two main business segments, including phosphate chemical products from its subsidiary Xinte Chemical, showed slight profitability, while the small home appliance segment remained stable [1]. - The company has made significant progress in reducing costs and controlling expenses in its lithium hexafluorophosphate business, contributing to a substantial reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point level, indicating potential upward momentum in the market [1][10]. Market Performance - As of the midday close on July 14, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3525.4 points, up 0.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10671.48 points, down 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index at 2190.82 points, down 0.74% [1][2]. - The overall market saw over 2600 stocks rising, indicating a relatively balanced performance between gainers and losers [2]. Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector led the gains, followed by precious metals, small home appliances, humanoid robots, and the power sector [4]. - Conversely, the diversified financial sector was sluggish, with cultural media and real estate sectors showing weakness [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in machinery, electrical equipment, and automotive sectors, while outflows were noted in computing, non-bank financials, and media sectors [6]. - Specific stocks such as Siyuan Electric, Greenland Holdings, and Xiangyang Bearing saw net inflows of 8.63 billion, 7.38 billion, and 7.26 billion respectively [7]. - On the outflow side, stocks like Dazhihui, Dongfang Caifu, and BYD faced sell-offs amounting to 11.1 billion, 9.1 billion, and 7.77 billion respectively [8]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the Shanghai Composite Index's breakout above 3500 points could open further upward space, with long-term funds continuously buying into bank-led dividend sectors [10]. - The market is advised to focus on sector rotation opportunities, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, computing power chains, PCB, and solid-state batteries [10]. - Technical analysis highlights the importance of the 3490-point support level for the Shanghai Composite Index, with potential buying opportunities if the index dips [10].

A股小家电板块震荡走强，科沃斯封板涨停，石头科技涨超6%，北鼎股份、ST德豪、爱仕达等均涨超 2%，新宝股份等跟涨。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance sector is expected to show strong performance in Q2 2025, with leading brands like Midea, Haier, and Gree projected to achieve double-digit growth due to stable profitability and market share gains. In contrast, second-tier brands may experience single-digit declines or marginal growth [1][3][4]. Key Insights and Arguments White Goods and Components - The white goods and components sector is anticipated to demonstrate robust operational resilience, with leading companies expected to achieve over 10% year-on-year growth. In contrast, second-tier white goods companies are likely to see weak performance, with revenue and earnings projected to decline slightly or grow marginally [4]. - Midea Group is recommended as a top pick, with expected revenue and earnings growth of over 15%. Haier is also expected to achieve double-digit growth due to strong domestic air conditioning performance and stable overseas business [4]. Home Appliance Performance - The overall performance of the home appliance industry in Q2 2025 is promising, with strong domestic demand driven by national subsidy policies. The air conditioning market saw a 36% increase in online retail volume, with Midea and Haier gaining market share [5]. - The kitchen small appliance sector is recovering, with a 25% growth during the 618 shopping festival, driven by improved average prices and sales volume [10]. Cleaning Appliances - The cleaning appliance sector is benefiting from national subsidy policies and global market share gains. Companies like Ecovacs and Roborock are experiencing strong revenue growth, while the price increase by a competitor has led to a decline in market share for others, providing growth opportunities for leading brands [1][6]. Black Goods - The black goods sector is stable, with an increase in Mini LED penetration driving price increases. TCL Electronics and Hisense are expected to see revenue and performance growth due to product structure optimization and overseas market expansion [1][13][15]. Export Manufacturing - Export manufacturing companies like Ousheng Electric and Lek Electric are expected to gradually recover their performance in Q3 and Q4 2025, benefiting from well-established production capacity in Southeast Asia [12]. Additional Important Insights - The air conditioning market remains competitive, but leading companies are managing costs effectively without sacrificing profit margins. The small appliance sector is seeing improved profitability due to capacity clearing and marginal improvements in traffic costs [2]. - The kitchen appliance sector is facing pressure from real estate completion demands, but national subsidy policies are providing support. Traditional products are stable, while integrated stoves are experiencing significant declines [17][19]. - Companies like Bull Group are facing growth pressures due to a weak macro environment, although their new energy and overseas business segments are growing rapidly [21]. - Ecovacs is projected to achieve a net profit of 485 to 515 million yuan in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 56% to 66%, driven by strong domestic market performance and international sales [7][8]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance expectations and strategic insights across various segments of the home appliance industry.