编辑 张锦嫣 制作 礼牧周 金惠景谈及丈夫李在明，并说每晚都和丈夫一起敷一片面膜。金惠景说这些品牌积极回应市场需求，她 期待韩中美妆产业多交流、多合作。 1月7日，韩国第一夫人金惠景抵达上海一美妆活动现场，现场体验多款产品。活动现场50多家韩妆品牌 搭台展出，产品包括护肤、彩妆、个护等全品类。 ...

1月7日，韩国第一夫人金惠景抵达上海一美妆活动现场，现场体验多款产品。活动现场50多家韩妆品牌 搭台展出，产品包括护肤、彩妆、个护等全品类。金惠景谈及丈夫李在明，并说每晚都和丈夫一起敷一 片面膜。金惠景说这些品牌积极回应市场需求，她期待韩中美妆产业多交流、多合作。 ...

去年以来，美国居民收入增长趋缓，中低收入群体因成本上升及担忧就业和经济前景不确定性而精打细 算，控制支出。9月经通胀调整后的实际个人可支配收入仅增长0.1%，实际个人消费支出环比增长0%， 个人储蓄率高达4.7%，对消费需求的抑制仍在持续，价格也将相应受到抑制，通胀下行趋势仍将延 续。美国11月ISM服务业PMI指数显示，11月服务及材料支付价格指数从10月70降至65.4，为今年4月以 来最低，尽管仍处历史较高水平，但印证了服务通胀降温的趋势性判断。更加重要的是，尽管美国通胀 高于2%目标已持续4年多，但长期通胀预期特别是市场指标仍较为稳固地锚定在2%附近，为最终实现 通胀目标提供了保障。 从2022年3月开始，美联储为降低通胀连续加息直至2023年7月，很多经济学家包括美联储都预测美国经 济将因此衰退，失业率大幅上升，但当时衰退并未发生。进入2024年后，美国通胀有所反弹和顽固，同 时就业走弱，经济降温趋冷，衰退论再次浮现。明年将会如何？笔者认为，可以分别从通胀和增长两个 方面分析。 从通胀看，美国商务部12月5日公布因联邦政府关闭延迟的9月PCE通胀数据显示，美国9月PCE和核心 PCE价格指数同比均增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dazhonglin, a leading chain pharmacy, is facing compliance and growth challenges amid a recent scandal involving the misuse of medical insurance cards and a strategic shift towards cosmetics and personal care products [1][2]. Group 1: Compliance Crisis - A recent investigation revealed that some Dazhonglin stores misclassified everyday items as medical devices to bypass insurance restrictions, indicating significant internal control failures [2]. - The scandal has implications for Dazhonglin's strategy to expand its cosmetics and personal care product lines, as it raises concerns about compliance in a tightening regulatory environment [2]. Group 2: Growth Anxiety - Dazhonglin has expanded its store count to over 16,000, but the traditional growth model of opening new stores is being challenged by e-commerce competition and stricter insurance regulations [3]. - In the first half of 2024, Dazhonglin closed 285 stores while only opening 152 new ones, indicating a shift from quantity to quality in its growth strategy [3]. - Despite a 25.97% increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2024, revenue growth was only 1.71%, suggesting reliance on franchise operations and new product categories for growth [3]. Group 3: Capital Setbacks and Model Dilemmas - Dazhonglin has faced capital challenges, including the termination of a planned private placement and withdrawal of a convertible bond issuance, reflecting market skepticism about its expansion strategy [4]. - The industry is experiencing a transition where old business models are failing while new ones are not yet stable, complicating Dazhonglin's restructuring efforts [4]. - Although Dazhonglin has developed a three-tier logistics network and is advancing its O2O (online-to-offline) business, uncertainties remain regarding the effectiveness of its transformation amid compliance and supply chain challenges [4]. Conclusion - Dazhonglin's difficulties mirror broader challenges in the chain pharmacy industry, where companies are forced to adapt to declining insurance benefits and online competition while grappling with compliance, supply chain, and capital issues [5]. - The management's ability to balance short-term growth with long-term compliance and establish sustainable models in new business areas will be critical for future success [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.961 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 405 million yuan, a significant increase of 149% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 231 million yuan, up 92% year-on-year [2][6]. - In the third quarter of 2025 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 140 million yuan, marking a 285% year-on-year growth, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 9.59 million yuan, up 108% year-on-year [2][6]. Revenue Performance - The beauty and personal care categories saw significant growth, with the personal care segment achieving revenue of 606 million yuan (up 14% year-on-year), and the beauty segment soaring to 354 million yuan (up 272% year-on-year) in Q3 2025. The innovation and overseas segments reported revenues of 158 million yuan (up 5% year-on-year) and 365 million yuan (down 3% year-on-year), respectively [12]. - Average selling prices for personal care, beauty, innovation, and overseas segments increased by 4.75%, 85.22%, 12.51%, and 9.84%, respectively, indicating a recovery in sales volume alongside significant price increases [12]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2025 was 61.48%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by the recovery in average selling prices and improved product mix [12]. - The reduction in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios contributed to a combined decrease of 2.4 percentage points, aiding the company in turning around its operating profit to profitability in this quarter [12]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to complete four core tasks starting from the second half of 2024: defining direction, clarifying governance, boosting morale, and eliminating burdens. The results from recent promotional activities are anticipated to yield positive outcomes for certain products and brands [12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 0.68 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 1.06 yuan, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs is gradually diminishing in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders. Nike's latest quarterly performance exceeded market expectations, signaling a recovery point, which is expected to improve supplier outlooks [1][5]. Brand Apparel Insights - In September, the retail sales of clothing increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth acceleration of 1.6 percentage points [1]. - E-commerce performance in October showed positive trends across all categories, with outdoor products leading growth. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories included: sports apparel at 0%, outdoor apparel at +19%, leisure apparel at 0%, home textiles at +1%, and personal care at +2% [2]. - Leading brands in sports apparel growth included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, October saw a year-on-year decline in textile exports from China (-9.1%) and Vietnam (-1.0%), with apparel and footwear exports from China down by 16.0% and 21.0% respectively. However, PMI indices for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam showed increases, indicating a stable manufacturing environment [3]. - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies are optimistic about future revenue, with orders visibility extending to six months for certain firms. Companies like Yu Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see order recovery in Q4, with companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group positioned to benefit from tariff stability and Nike's recovery [5][6]. - In the brand apparel sector, the long-term growth potential of the sports and outdoor segment is highlighted, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, as well as non-sport brands benefiting from a "brand upward" strategy [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the beauty and personal care sector, recommending a "buy" rating for high-growth companies with strong brand power and innovative product offerings [2][3]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing a slow recovery, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Personal care products and innovative channels continue to perform strongly, while the cosmetics sector shows signs of slowing growth due to domestic brand competition [1][2][3]. - For 2026, the overall beauty and personal care market is expected to remain stable, but further differentiation among companies is anticipated. The report emphasizes the importance of selecting high-growth targets with product and channel innovations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the beauty and personal care sector saw revenues and net profits increase by 2.7% and 4.9% respectively, with personal care outperforming cosmetics and medical aesthetics [12][31]. - The cosmetics sector experienced a slight decline in revenue, with a 0.4% decrease year-on-year, while net profit fell by 2.3% [31][33]. Personal Care Sector - The personal care segment achieved revenues of 52 billion yuan and net profits of 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 5.7% respectively. The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 41.1% [12][16]. - Companies like Ruoyuchen reported impressive growth, with a 123% increase in revenue and a 73% increase in net profit in the third quarter [12][28]. Cosmetics Sector - The cosmetics sector's revenue for the first three quarters was 308 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.4% and 2.3% respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue drop of 0.5% but a significant profit increase of 50.8% [12][31]. - The report highlights the importance of individual company strategies and product life cycles in determining performance within the cosmetics sector [13][48]. Medical Aesthetics Sector - The medical aesthetics segment reported revenues of 75 billion yuan and net profits of 27 billion yuan, with a slight revenue decline of 0.7% but a profit increase of 14.5% year-on-year [12][52]. - The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 1.8% and a remarkable profit growth of 96.6%, although underlying performance was affected by increased competition and integration challenges [52][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth companies with strong brand power, such as Ruoyuchen, Shangmei, and Maogeping, as well as companies with stable fundamentals and potential for marginal improvement like Dengkang Oral and Shanghai Jahwa [2][3]. - It also suggests monitoring companies that are expected to reach a turning point, such as Runben and Jinjian Biological, which may present investment opportunities [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty and personal care industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The beauty market in China showed steady performance in Q1-Q3 2025, with retail sales of cosmetics growing by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the overall retail sales growth of consumer goods at 3.3% [4][5] - The high-end segment is expected to outperform the mass market, with projected CAGR for high-end skincare and makeup at 9.6% and 10.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.2% and 6.7% for the mass market [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the beauty market maintained stable demand, with monthly retail sales growth fluctuating, peaking at 8.6% in September [4][5] - The personal care segment performed well, with revenue reaching 52.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [16] Segment Analysis - Cosmetics segment revenue was 299.9 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02%, while net profit decreased by 2.5% [16] - The medical beauty segment saw revenue of 74.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7%, but net profit increased by 14.5% [16] - The personal care segment's revenue growth was driven by product innovation and expansion, with notable performances from companies like RuBen and RYTHM [16] Brand Competition - The competitive landscape is stable, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu gaining market share, particularly in platforms like Tmall and Douyin [11][12] - The report highlights the increasing strength of domestic brands due to their brand power and local advantages [12]

Core Insights - A series of international perfume brands are engaging with Chinese audiences through the autumn exhibition, Notes Shanghai and Beauty Shanghai, held from October 18 to 19 at the Shanghai West Bund International Exhibition Center [1][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The fourth edition of Notes Shanghai and the inaugural Beauty Shanghai are being held concurrently, themed "Heritage" and "Standards of Beauty," respectively, creating a platform for deep integration of the fragrance and beauty industries [1][5] - The first day attracted nearly 4,000 professional visitors, with expectations to draw over 8,000 professionals and more than 15,000 consumers throughout the event [1] Group 2: Exhibition Highlights - Notes Shanghai showcases nearly 300 boutique fragrance brands from 30 countries and regions, featuring both international classics and niche brands, as well as emerging Chinese brands [4][5] - The original formula of a historic perfume, presented by the world's first perfume archive (Osmothèque), is being exhibited for the first time in China, generating significant interest among industry professionals and fragrance enthusiasts [4] Group 3: Special Exhibitions and Forums - Nine special exhibitions cover various themes, including the history of perfume, ingredient exploration, olfactory art, brand storytelling, and cultural expression, providing a sensory journey for both professionals and the public [5] - Beauty Shanghai features nearly 200 quality brands, focusing on high-quality skincare, makeup, and personal care, and discusses how brands can define new industry heights through product, cultural, and creative strengths [5][6] Group 4: Industry Integration - The joint hosting of Notes Shanghai and Beauty Shanghai represents not only a spatial collaboration but also a fusion of concepts and industries, creating a vibrant picture of contemporary sensory culture in China [6] - The exhibitions aim to connect brands, channels, buyers, and consumers, showcasing the collective rise of Chinese brands in terms of cultural and brand strength [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of keeping pace with market trends and customer needs to maintain its technological and product competitiveness [1] Group 1: R&D Strategy - The company has established three major R&D centers focused on clean health, water health, and lifestyle health [1] - Each R&D center specializes in specific product categories: clean R&D focuses on cleaning appliances, lifestyle R&D on personal care and sports health, and water health R&D on water purification products [1] - The R&D centers conduct demand research, market analysis, new product development, product promotion, and improvements to ensure quality while enabling rapid product development iterations [1]