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5月PMI数据点评:关注“抢出口”之下的预期差
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 15:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].
上升0.5个百分点!刚刚,重要经济数据发布!
证券时报· 2025-05-31 05:39
高技术制造业PMI连续四个月保持在扩张区间 5月份制造业PMI比上月有所回升。从13个分项指数来看,同上月相比,生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单 指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和生产经营活动预期指数上 升,指数升幅在0.2至3.7个百分点之间。 产成品库存指数、购进价格指数、出厂价格指数和供应商配送时间指数下降,指数降幅在0.1至0.8个百分点之 间。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示,生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升,表明在多项 政策综合效应下,企业预期趋向改善,生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 制造业PMI数据出炉。 5月31日,国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示,5月制造业采购经理指数(制造 业PMI)为49.5%,综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,分别比上月上升0.5和0.2个百分点,均比上月改善。非制造业 商务活动指数为50.3%,今年以来连续保持在50%以上,保持扩张。 分析认为,5月份制造业PMI指数出现回升,表明加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现,非 制造业继续在扩张区间平稳运行,细分指数变化显示,投资、消费 ...
制造业PMI回升至49.5%,企业信心保持稳定
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-31 03:11
装备制造业生产指数较上月上升超过4个百分点,升至54%以上,连续10个月保持在50%及以上。 随着稳增长政策落地显效,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)较上月回升,制造业景气水平有所改善,经济 运行回稳。 国家统计局5月31日发布的数据显示,5月份,制造业PMI为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个百分点;非制造业 商务活动指数为50.3%,比上月下降0.1个百分点;综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,比上月上升0.2个百分 点,我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.5%,比上月上升0.4个百分点,制造业企业对近期市场发展信心总体 保持稳定。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为,5月份PMI指数出现回升,表明加紧实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升,表明在多项政策综 合效应下,企业预期趋向改善,生产经营活动有回暖迹象。同时也要注意到,价格指数仍小幅回落,表 明市场供大于求格局仍较突出,需求收缩导致的宏观经济总量失衡尚未改变。 张立群强调,要着力加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础,特别要通过政府公共产品投资力度持续加大,显 著增加市场需求,增加企业订 ...
海航科技: 海航科技股份有限公司股东会议事规则(2025年5月修订)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-23 10:25
海航科技股份有限公司 股东会议事规则 (2025年第一次临时股东大会审议通过) 第一章 总则 第一条 为规范海航科技股份有限公司(以下简称"本公司"、"公司") 行为,保证股东会依法行使职权,根据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称 《公司法》)、《中华人民共和国证券法》(以下简称《证券法》)、中国证券 监督管理委员会发布的有关规章和《海航科技股份有限公司章程》(以下简称 公司章程)的规定,制定本规则。 第二条 公司股东会的召集、提案、通知、召开等事项适用本规则。 第三条 公司应当严格按照法律、行政法规、公司章程及本规则的相关规定 召开股东会,保证股东能够依法行使权利。公司董事会应当切实履行职责,认 真、按时组织股东会。公司全体董事应当勤勉尽责,确保股东会正常召开和依 法行使职权。 第四条 股东会应当在《公司法》和公司章程规定的范围内行使职权。 第五条 股东会分为年度股东会和临时股东会。年度股东会每年召开一次, 应当于上一会计年度结束后的六个月内举行。临时股东会不定期召开,出现 《公司法》第一百一十三条规定的应当召开临时股东会的情形时,临时股东会 应当在两个月内召开。上述期限内不能召开股东会的,应当报告公司所在 ...
渤海轮渡: 渤海轮渡集团股份有限公司2024年年度股东大会会议材料
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-22 10:16
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable operational performance in 2024 despite facing various challenges, with a slight decrease in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating effective cost management and strategic resilience [1][13][19]. Group 1: Company Operational Performance - The total revenue for 2024 was 1.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.12% compared to the previous year [13]. - The total profit reached 440 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8% [1][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 274 million yuan, an increase of 9.54% year-on-year [1][13]. Group 2: Board of Directors' Activities - The Board of Directors held 8 meetings in 2024, reviewing 40 proposals [1][3]. - The Board emphasized the importance of corporate governance and compliance with regulations to ensure sustainable development [1][3]. Group 3: Financial Indicators - The company's total assets at the end of 2024 were approximately 4.46 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.22% from the previous year [14][18]. - The asset-liability ratio increased to 14.85%, up from 11.60% at the end of the previous year, indicating a rise in financial leverage [14][18]. - Earnings per share rose to 0.58 yuan, a 9.43% increase from the previous year [14][18]. Group 4: Investor Relations and Governance - The company maintained active communication with investors through various channels, ensuring transparency and engagement [4][6]. - The Board plans to enhance investor relations management and protect the rights of minority shareholders [4][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company anticipates challenges in the market but remains optimistic about leveraging opportunities for growth in 2025, focusing on strategic initiatives and operational efficiency [19][20].
生产不弱,需求较稳:2025年4月经济数据点评
Tebon Securities· 2025-05-22 04:48
证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 5 月 22 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号:S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱:liants@tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱:chengy@tebon.com.cn 戴琨 邮箱:daikun@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 生产不弱,需求较稳 ——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点:2025 年 4 月宏观经济稳中向好,主要表现为制造立国推进下,工业 生产增长强劲,制造业投资继续高增,对冲房地产投资下滑的负向拖累;经济进入 "见龙在田"阶段,外部利空或逐步缓解,内部结构上地产的拖累也有望逐步减弱: 1-4 月,制造业投资维持强势表现达到 8.8%,基建投资达到 5.8%,有效对冲了 地产投资-10.3%带来的负向拖累。 以旧换新前置效果渐显,文旅出行支撑社零读数,1-4 月社零累计同比 4.7%。 关税疑云下生产不弱,或源于生产韧性和 T86 模式最后期限内抢 ...
宁波海运:公司股票交易价格近期波动较大 存在较高的炒作风险
news flash· 2025-05-19 08:49
智通财经5月19日电,宁波海运(600798.SH)发布风险提示公告,根据中证指数网发布的数据,交通运输 业、仓储和邮政业中水上运输业2025年5月16日滚动市盈率为9.50,公司最新滚动市盈率为20,706.36, 明显高于同行业水平。鉴于公司股票交易价格近期波动较大,存在较高的炒作风险,敬请广大投资者注 意二级市场交易风险,理性决策,审慎投资,切忌盲目跟风。 宁波海运:公司股票交易价格近期波动较大 存在较高的炒作风险 ...
宁波海运股份有限公司 关于公司获得政府补助的公告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 15:31
证券代码:600798 证券简称:宁波海运 公告编号:2025-020 宁波海运股份有限公司 关于公司获得政府补助的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ● 获得补助金额:人民币442万元 ● 对当期损益的影响:根据《企业会计准则16号-政府补助》的相关规定,上述收到的政府补助属于与 收益相关的政府补助,将对公司 2025 年度净利润产生一定影响。上述政府补助数据未经审计,具体的 会计处理及对公司相关财务数据的影响以会计师事务所审计后的结果为准。 一、获得补助的基本情况 2025年5月16日,宁波海运股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")收到政府补助款442.00万元,现将已收到 政府补助的具体情况公告如下: 单位:万元 币种:人民币 ■ 三、风险提示和其他说明 以上政府补助数据未经审计,具体的会计处理及对公司相关财务数据的影响以会计师事务所审计后的结 果为准。敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 宁波海运股份有限公司董事会 2025年5月17日 证券代码:600798 证券简称:宁波海运 公告编 ...
宁波远洋:最新市净率明显高于同行业平均水平
news flash· 2025-05-16 09:10
智通财经5月16日电,宁波远洋(601022.SH)发布异动公告,根据中证指数网发布的数据,交通运输业、 仓储和邮政业中水上运输业2025年5月15日平均滚动市盈率为9.61倍,行业平均市净率为1.12倍,公司最 新滚动市盈率为25.89倍,最新市净率为2.44倍,明显高于同行业平均水平。敬请广大投资者注意二级市 场交易风险,理性决策,审慎投资。 宁波远洋:最新市净率明显高于同行业平均水平 ...
四连板宁波海运:生产经营正常 无应披露而未披露的重大信息
news flash· 2025-05-16 09:10
四连板宁波海运:生产经营正常 无应披露而未披露的重大信息 智通财经5月16日电,宁波海运(600798.SH)发布股票交易异常波动公告。经自查和向控股股东征询,公 司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。公司生产经营正常,市场环境或行业政策没有发生重大调整。根 据中证指数网发布的数据,交通运输业、仓储和邮政业中水上运输业2025年5月15日平均滚动市盈率为 9.61,公司最新滚动市盈率为18,811.36,明显高于同行业平均水平。 ...