报告日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：资本市场改革新部署 证监会副主席陈华平 1 月 11 日在第三十届中国资本市场论坛上表示，将持续完 善长钱长投的制度环境，合力推动各类中长期资金进一步提高入市规模比例；不 断增强对科技创新企业服务的精准性、有效性，纵深推进科创板创业板改革，深 化再融资改革；进一步提升监管执法有效性，持续健全投资者教育服务和保护体 系，坚持依法从严监管，突出打大、打恶、打重点，从严惩治各类恶性违法行为。 美国财政部长贝森特透露，美国最早或于本周解除针对委内瑞拉的额外制裁，以 推动石油出口。贝森特将于本周会晤国际货币基金组织和世界银行负责人，商议 两大机构与委内瑞拉重新建立合作关系的相关事宜。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、铜 贵金属：贵金属再度反弹。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 购金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄金长期上行趋势有望延续。白银和铂金兼具金融和 工业属性，除受到宏观因素驱动外，还受到供需缺口的额外支 ...

研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F3108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 中国成品油周报 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 供应端，本周全国炼厂开工上行0.4个百分点至70.6%，主营开工环比上行，春节前提高负荷提前提产汽油；山东地炼开工率环比小幅下跌，神驰 化工等两家地炼进入全厂检修，大部分炼厂开工稳定。本周主营增调汽油，汽油产量环比上行，柴油产量小幅下行。地方炼厂汽柴油产量均下 行。柴汽比上行0.01至1.49。需求端，山东炼厂周均产销率，汽柴均回落，未达产销平衡。汽油产销下行2个百分点至97%；柴油产销下行1个百 分点至95%。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油1095万吨，环比22万吨（ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, with expectations that demand growth will exceed non-OPEC supply growth post-2027, suggesting a potential bottom for oil prices this year [1][4]. Core Insights - The oil market outlook has improved slightly, with investors showing a more favorable view on oil, while maintaining a cautious stance on natural gas [3][4]. - The natural gas market faces challenges due to an influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, with significant pressure anticipated from 2027 to 2029 [1][12]. - The overall activity level in the U.S. onshore oil and gas sector is expected to remain stable in 2026, with WTI crude oil prices potentially stabilizing around $40 per barrel [7]. - Canadian energy companies are gaining attention, with reduced selling pressure on Canadian oil stocks, particularly Suncor Energy, despite recent volatility due to geopolitical factors [9][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Market - Investors are slightly more optimistic about the oil market, with expectations of demand growth surpassing non-OPEC supply growth after 2027 [1][4]. - ConocoPhillips and Chevron are highlighted as companies to watch, particularly in relation to the evolving situation in Venezuela [5]. Natural Gas Market - The U.S. natural gas production is expected to grow at over 3%, but the LNG market is facing significant supply challenges [1][12]. - The report emphasizes a cautious outlook for natural gas, with a focus on the potential impacts of supply influx on pricing [12]. U.S. Onshore Oil and Gas Activity - The report anticipates that overall activity levels in the U.S. onshore oil and gas sector will remain stable in 2026, with no significant adjustments expected [7]. - The report notes that if WTI prices drop to the $40 range, the industry activity is likely to remain relatively stable [7]. Canadian Energy Sector - Canadian oil stocks are experiencing reduced selling pressure, with Suncor Energy being a notable player despite recent challenges [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of Canadian companies in the global energy landscape, particularly in terms of technological innovation and sustainability [8]. Refining Industry - The global refining capacity is expected to grow at a slower pace than refined oil demand, leading to a structurally tighter market [22]. - The report suggests that the refining sector will perform well in the next 6 to 12 months, although it may face consolidation pressures [22].

报告同时指出，埃克森美孚旗下博蒙特、贝敦、巴吞鲁日等大型炼油厂近期及持续推进的升级改造项 目，将逐步提升产品产出率，并扩大高附加值燃料及基础油料的产能占比。瑞银认为，即便未来油价走 弱，这些升级投资叠加审慎的资本开支策略，仍将支撑公司下游业务盈利能力稳步提升。 目前，瑞银维持对埃克森美孚的"买入"评级，12个月目标价为145美元，较公司近期股价存在超20%的 上涨空间。瑞银表示，当前埃克森美孚的估值倍数低于历史均值，未能充分反映其炼油及一体化业务的 收益韧性与盈利潜力。 以Manav Gupta为首的分析师团队测算，埃克森美孚在全球15座炼油厂合计拥有每日近410万桶的炼油产 能。这一规模优势不仅能为公司收益提供稳定性支撑，还可对冲原油价格下跌带来的风险。瑞银估算， 炼油利润率每提升1美元/桶，埃克森美孚能源产品部门的年利润就能增加约8亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银分析师指出，埃克森美孚(XOM.US)的全球炼油业务目前被投资者严重低估， 在本十年剩余时间内，该业务有望为公司带来可观的收益增长与现金流提振。 瑞银测算，在行业周期处于中段的情况下，埃克森美孚炼油资产的息税前利润可达约63亿美元，其中美 国墨 ...

公开简历显示，田宏斌，高级工程师，工程硕士。他曾任中国石化股份公司广州分公司副总经理、党委 常委，中国石化股份公司广州分公司总经理、党委副书记，中国石化集团资产公司广州分公司总经理， 中国石化股份公司广州分公司代表、党委书记等职，于2024年5月任中国石化股份公司炼油事业部总经 理。 据官网介绍，中国石油化工集团有限公司是上下游、产供销、内外贸一体化特大型能源化工集团公司， 注册资本3265亿元人民币。公司是中国最大的成品油和石化产品供应商，世界第一大炼油公司、第二大 化工公司，加油站总数位居世界第二，近年来在《财富》世界500强企业排名中始终位居前列。 来源：长安街知事微信公众号 转自：北京日报客户端 据中国石化报1月9日消息，根据中央组织部任职决定，田宏斌同志任中国石油化工集团有限公司副总经 理、党组成员。 料图 田宏斌 资 ...

【导读】大型科技股走势分化，亚太卫星盘中涨超 20% 后回落 中国基金报记者 储是 此外，港交所推出六只新的股票期权类别。另有三只新股今日在港交所上市。 港股震荡收涨 科技股走势分化 1 月 9 日，港股三大指数震荡小幅收涨。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨 0.32% ，报收于 26231.79 点；恒生国企指数和恒生科技指数分别上 涨 0.1% 、 0.15% 。 周线方面，本周（ 1 月 5 日至 1 月 9 日），恒生指数累计下跌 0.41% ，恒生科技指数累计下跌 0.86% ，恒生国企指数累计下跌 1.31% 。 今日，恒生科技指数小幅收涨 0.15% ，成份股走势分化。哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴、京东集团分别上涨 3.14% 、 2.72% 、 2.6% ；腾讯控 股、网易、百度、美团分别下跌 0.81% 、 1.28% 、 2.07% 、 2.48% 。其中，腾讯控股和阿里巴巴今日成交额均超过百亿港元。 | 9961.HK | | | 0.0410 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 哔哩哔哩-W | 223.400 | 3.14% | 13.71亿 | | 9626.HK | | | ...

Group 1 - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil Group has been approved by the State Council, marking a significant move in the central enterprise restructuring efforts [2] - Sinopec is the world's largest refining company and the leading aviation fuel producer in China, while China Aviation Oil is the largest aviation fuel procurement and service company in Asia, providing fuel support to numerous airports [2] - The integration aims to streamline the entire supply chain from crude oil refining to aircraft refueling, potentially reducing costs and enhancing energy security for China's aviation industry [2][3] Group 2 - The collaboration between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil is expected to facilitate the commercialization of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), addressing the industry's need for carbon reduction and climate change mitigation [3] - The restructuring is part of a broader trend of accelerated mergers and acquisitions among central enterprises, with several significant consolidations occurring during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned enterprises to enhance their core functions and competitiveness [3][4] Group 3 - Experts highlight that while the merger is a crucial first step, the real challenge lies in achieving effective integration and synergy between the two companies [4] - The restructuring faces challenges in ensuring national energy security and advancing the dual carbon goals, with stakeholders keenly observing the outcomes [4]

The stock benchmarks are poised to open marginally higher on Friday, after four straight ‍sessions of losses on renewed US tariff concerns, as investors ​await a US Supreme Court ruling on the ‌legality of the levies later in the ​day.The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,998.50 points as of 8:02 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 would open above Thursday’s close of 25,876.85.Nifty and Sensex have lost 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, in the last four sessions, after US President Donald ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil Group aims to enhance the integration of the aviation fuel industry chain, reduce supply costs, and accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of aviation energy supply, thereby improving international competitiveness [1][4][8]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Demand - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's aviation fuel demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 4%, reaching around 50 million tons by 2030 and about 75 million tons by 2040 [3]. Group 2: Innovation and Integration - The merger is expected to facilitate the construction of an innovative system for aviation fuel technology, accelerating the integration of the innovation and industry chains [4][6]. - The restructuring will leverage Sinopec's research and development capabilities in oil products and China Aviation Oil's market supply advantages, promoting the integration of the aviation fuel industry's innovation and supply chains [6]. Group 3: Sustainable Development - The merger will support the high-quality development of sustainable aviation fuel industries and assist the aviation sector in its green and low-carbon transition [8][10]. - Sustainable aviation fuel technology is recognized as a primary route for reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector, which is one of the most challenging areas for emissions reduction in transportation [8]. - Sinopec is the first company in Asia to have independent research and production capabilities for bio-jet fuel, which will accelerate the research, use, and continuous iteration of sustainable aviation fuel technologies post-restructuring [10][12].

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