燃料油日报 | 2025-11-21 阿祖尔炼厂装置有望在近期重启 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨2.45%，报2553元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.06%，报3153 元/吨。 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，虽然短期有地缘与宏观因素的扰动，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃 料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，近期低硫表现强于高硫，但昨日再度出现逆转。一方面， 低硫燃料油市场不具备持续性走强的驱动，由于故障检修的阿祖尔炼厂部分装置有望在11月29日左右重启，科威 特11月低硫燃料油发货量截至目前为0，装置重启后将恢复供应。另一方面，高硫燃料油市场支撑因素仍存，尤其 乌克兰无人机持续袭击俄罗斯炼厂，导致其开工率下滑，近期燃料油发货量偏低，且美国制裁的影响可能还会进 一步兑现。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Russian and Ukrainian forces continues to escalate, with both sides claiming territorial control and engaging in military operations against each other [1] Group 1: Russian Military Actions - Russian military forces have maintained an offensive across the front lines, claiming control over Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and over 80% of the Volchansk area, as well as 70% of the territory in the Donetsk region known as Red Army City (Ukrainian name: Pokrovsk) [1] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported that they have fully controlled the miners' area in Red Army City and have initiated regular patrols in the region [1] Group 2: Ukrainian Military Actions - The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a new strike on the Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, aiming to weaken Russian military capabilities, confirming a precise hit that resulted in a fire in the secondary processing area [1] - Ukrainian forces reported that they repelled 38 out of 43 attacks launched by Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction on the same day [1] Group 3: Discrepancies in Reporting - The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff stated that the information reported by Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov to President Putin is provocative and not factual, asserting that Kupiansk remains under Ukrainian control [1] - The claims made by Gerasimov regarding Russian control over 80% of Volchansk and 70% of Pokrovsk were also disputed by Ukrainian officials, indicating a significant divergence in the narratives presented by both sides [1]

华泰证券研报指出，由于中国原油加工量的达峰及海外供给受到抑制，全球硫磺供给增长遇到瓶颈，而 需求侧无论是全球磷复肥的消耗扩张还是中国锂电池、尼龙、钛白粉等新材料领域的产能爬升，都带来 稳步增长。2024年我国硫磺表观消费量同比增长8.6%，进口量占比47%，同比增长12.7%。国内硫磺对 外依存度增加及全球性供需矛盾导致硫磺价格在2025年内（截至11月14 日）累计上涨152%至3930元/ 吨，中国石化依托炼油及天然气加工的能力，具备888万吨/年硫磺产能，是国内硫磺供应量最大的企 业。硫磺景气回升带动公司炼油板块景气回暖，叠加石化领域产能周期拐点，该行上调公司A/H评级 至"买入"，目标价7.60 元/6.26港元。 ...

Macro Insights - The growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in October slowed down year-on-year, influenced by a high base effect, but the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth continued to rise, indicating stronger growth in fiscal expenditure than the apparent rate [2][3] - The year-on-year growth rate of general fiscal expenditure (including general public budget and government funds) fell to -19.1% in October from 2.3% in September, while the adjusted month-on-month growth increased from 9.3% in September to 15.7% in October [2][3] Fixed Income Insights - In the second week of November, the real estate market showed a divergence between new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales slightly recovering but remaining low year-on-year, while second-hand home activity weakened [3] - Industrial freight volume remained strong, but production rates varied, with coking and blast furnace operating rates declining, while other sectors like oil refining and automotive remained stable [3] - The liquidity in the market was tight due to tax periods and the Double Eleven shopping festival, with the average DR007 and R007 rates rising to 1.49% and 1.50% respectively [4] REITs Analysis - The public REITs market experienced a downturn in the second half of the year due to high previous gains, stock market diversion, and rising interest rates, leading to a need for selective investment in quality assets [5] - Projects with stable fundamentals, such as rental housing and municipal environmental projects, are recommended for investment, while caution is advised for industrial parks and logistics warehouses [5] Power Equipment and New Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines to promote the healthy development of the wind power equipment industry, encouraging companies to enhance green and intelligent levels [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability in wind turbine manufacturing [6] Key Company Insights - GaoNeng Environment is positioned for a performance release period due to ongoing upgrades and capacity ramp-up in its metal resource recycling projects, contributing significantly to its revenue [7] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is expected to benefit from a recovery in the refining sector due to a global sulfur supply-demand imbalance, with a projected increase in sulfur consumption in 2024 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.60 / HKD 6.26 [7][5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in sulfur prices due to supply-demand imbalances, with prices rising by 152% to RMB 3930 per ton as of November 14, 2025. This trend is expected to benefit the refining sector of the company [1][4] - The report anticipates an 8.6% year-on-year growth in sulfur consumption in China for 2024, driven by demand from various sectors including lithium batteries and new materials [1][2] - The company is positioned as the largest sulfur supplier in China with an annual production capacity of 8.88 million tons, which is expected to enhance its profitability amid rising sulfur prices [4][5] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global sulfur supply is facing constraints due to peak crude oil processing in China and reduced overseas supply, while demand is steadily increasing from sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and new materials [1][2] - In the first nine months of 2025, China's apparent sulfur consumption reached 16.75 million tons, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with imports accounting for 47% of the total [2] Refining Sector Insights - The refining sector's growth is being challenged by structural changes in natural gas supply and a decline in independent refinery operations, leading to limited growth in sulfur production from crude oil [3] - The report notes that geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have tightened international sulfur supply due to reduced refinery operations and export bans [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 36.8 billion for 2025, with upward revisions for 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts to RMB 46.3 billion and RMB 54.6 billion, respectively [5][11] - The report provides a valuation based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.0x for A-shares and 15.0x for H-shares for 2026, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and transformation into new materials and non-oil businesses [5][12]

除了需应对竞争，资金问题也是项目落地的重要阻碍，尤其是在欧洲或中东地区。迈特拉解释，这些地 区的市场不确定性高，且工程、采购与建设(EPC)成本居高不下。 印度信实工业战略与计划负责人帕尔塔·迈特拉指出："当前石化行业正处于低谷期。低迷的原因之一是 全球新增产能集中。比如，中国目前至少有8个'原油制化学品'(COTC)项目正在推进，S-Oil韩国蔚山 的'沙欣项目'也即将启动。" 新加坡彭加兰能源综合体首席执行官阿尔温・鲍登表示："如今炼油厂转型已成为'富人的游戏'，除非 是资金雄厚的大型能源企业 ，但即便如此，也很难独自推进转型，往往需要联合其他合作伙伴，否则 根本无力推动项目落地。"他认为，行业已形成共识：未来的发展方向是 "将炼油厂改造或重建为高转 化率的原油制化学品装置"，但这一目标目前尚无法实现。 中化新网讯 近日，在新加坡举办的亚洲下游峰会(ADS)专题讨论中，行业高管们表示，亚洲炼油厂转型 正面临多重阻碍：转型成本过高、竞争压力大，且现有技术能耗高，而更先进的替代技术尚未具备商业 可行性。 ...

韩国商会指出，相关协会正积极寻求支持措施，包括政府财政援助、打造低碳产品市场以及建设零碳能 源基础设施，以助力行业向低碳转型。 作为回应，韩国贸易、工业和能源部(MOTIE)11月7日在声明中宣布，未来三年将提供2973亿韩元的贷 款支持，用于16个碳减排相关的设施投资和研发新项目。韩国贸易、工业和能源部表示："预计这将带 动总计9630亿韩元的新增民间投资。"该部门透露，今年上半年已通过首轮评选确定9个项目，8月启动 第二轮申报评审后又新增16个入选项目，相关贷款从本月起将由14家主要银行正式发放。新增入选项目 包括S-Oil公司(炼油及相关设施)、HD Hydrogen公司(燃料电池及设施研发)、SK Plug Hyverse公司(储氢 及设施)以及韩华海洋生态科技公司(造船及相关设施)。入选企业可获得最高500亿韩元(约合3520万美 元)的贷款，利率仅为1.3%。 中化新网讯 韩国商会近日表示，包括韩国石油协会(KPA)、韩国化学工业协会(KCIA)在内的8家行业协 会已联合致信韩国政府，担忧气候、能源和环境部当前提出的减排方案可能给石化行业竞争力带来沉重 负担。 根据政府官方政策简报，韩国气候、能源 ...

工厂被炸后的现实很快就摆在了大家面前。加油站陆续开始排起长队，油价也被悄悄推高，一些老百姓 开车成本上升，供暖公司也开始担忧冬天能否顺利度过。 货车和农机用油直接从这家大厂出来，供给紧了，运输和农业的日常也容易被殃及。这不仅是俄罗斯自 己的麻烦，周边的国家同样要再三琢磨，以免未来油不够用或者成本飞涨。整个区域的日子都随着这么 一颗炸弹变得不安稳起来。 俄罗斯的萨拉托夫炼油厂被无人机连续袭击，这事让不少人揪心，也让加油站的队伍一夜之间变长了。 事情发生在今年11月，乌克兰动用了无人机，两次盯上了这家产能巨大的炼油厂，结果核心的装置被炸 停，整个工厂只有等月底才能修好恢复生产。 原本这里一天能炼出十几万桶油，无论是加汽油还是烧暖气，都离不开它。工厂一旦断了生产，受影响 的不光是俄罗斯国内，连带着周边国家，比如白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦，都面临着供油减少的难题。 乌克兰的这波操作，算是打在了俄罗斯的痛点上。本来稳稳当当靠石油出口赚大钱的日子，现在被无人 机搅得一团乱。乌克兰选择炸炼油厂，不只是单纯想让俄罗斯亏点钱，更重要的是想让俄罗斯把防空体 系的注意力分散开。 本来这些高精尖的防御系统都冲着前线去的，现在不得不抽更多力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Korean industry is urging the government to reconsider the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target and the fourth phase of the emissions trading system, emphasizing the need for realistic reduction goals that consider industrial capabilities and competitiveness [1][2] Group 1: Industry Concerns - Eight major industry associations, including the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Korea Iron and Steel Association, have submitted a joint proposal to the government regarding the upcoming greenhouse gas reduction targets [1] - The industry expresses concern over three of the proposed reduction scenarios (53%, 61%, and 65%), stating that they lack specific pathways for reductions by sector and industry [1] - The industry argues that reasonable reduction targets should be supported by government financial assistance, low-carbon market development, and the establishment of zero-carbon energy infrastructure [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The industry estimates that during the fourth phase of the emissions trading system, the steel, refining, cement, and petrochemical sectors will need to purchase an additional 910 million tons of emissions rights [1] - At a cost of 50,000 KRW per ton, the total cost for these sectors would reach 50 trillion KRW, which could disadvantage Korean companies in international competition [1] - A representative from the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry stated that the industry is not avoiding its reduction responsibilities but seeks to establish a more realistic and feasible target system [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical is positioned as a leading integrated enterprise in the "refining-chemical-fiber" industry chain, focusing on technological innovation and green low-carbon upgrades to maintain its competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [2][8]. Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Hengyi Petrochemical achieved an operating revenue of 83.885 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.08% [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported total assets of 111.51 billion yuan and net assets attributable to shareholders of 24.458 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The Southeast Asian refined oil market is expected to see a growing supply-demand gap, with the International Energy Agency predicting oil demand in the region to increase from 5 million barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day by 2035 [3]. - The region's GDP growth is projected to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam expected to grow at rates of 5.1%, 6.1%, and 6.1% respectively, driving demand for refined products [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Insights - The polyester industry is anticipated to experience steady growth in downstream demand, with domestic retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The new capacity growth in the polyester sector is slowing, with only 650,000 tons of new polyester filament capacity added in the first half of 2025, leading to a higher market concentration among leading enterprises [4]. Group 4: Project Developments - The first phase of the Qinzhou project has successfully entered trial production, featuring a comprehensive integration of various production processes [6]. - The Brunei refining project is progressing smoothly, with updates to be announced in due course [6]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - As of June 30, 2025, Hengyi Petrochemical holds 566 effective patents, with 500 related to research and development, and 66 in intelligent manufacturing [7]. - The proportion of differentiated fibers in the company's product structure has increased to 27%, indicating a strong position in the industry [7].