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有色金属行业报告:关税预期扰动不改黄金上行趋势
China Post Securities· 2025-06-03 02:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the gold price trend remains upward despite fluctuations caused by tariff expectations, with a strong focus on inflation resilience and long-term interest rates [5] - Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating around a cost level of $9,350 due to tariff uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [6] - Aluminum prices are projected to rise, supported by strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [6] - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to tight supply and stable demand from the steel sector [7] - Rare earth prices are under short-term pressure but are expected to recover as export controls ease and mining quotas are issued [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,668.39, with a weekly high of 5,020.22 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price declines: Copper down 1.03%, Aluminum down 1.39%, Zinc down 2.93%, Lead down 1.23%, and Tin down 6.73% - Precious metals experienced mixed results: Gold up 0.41%, Silver down 0.93%, Platinum down 9.60% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: Copper down 11,442 tons, Aluminum down 12,499 tons, Zinc down 12,099 tons, Lead down 4,080 tons, Tin down 106 tons, and Nickel down 681 tons [26]
有色金属行业周报
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 07:20
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows signs of upward momentum with a decrease in copper inventory and an increase in production rates, indicating a tightening supply situation [12][13] - The aluminum sector faces slight pressure due to the end of demand from the photovoltaic sector, with expectations of a demand test in June [12][14] - The gold market is experiencing reduced short-term safe-haven appeal due to easing inflation and fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [12][15] - The rare earth sector is expected to see a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices due to export controls and supply disruptions [12][36] - The antimony market is projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply, despite recent price corrections [12][37] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [12][38] - Tin prices are experiencing a decline due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [12][39] - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [12][40] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a positive turning point with expected supply tightening in June [12] - Aluminum faces demand pressure as the photovoltaic installation rush ends [12] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see price increases driven by supply constraints and central bank purchases [12] 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, with domestic inventory continuing to decline [13] - The smelting sector shows increased production rates, indicating a robust supply chain [13] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton, with inventory levels dropping [14] - The operational rate of aluminum processing remains stable, providing some support for future demand [14] 2.3 Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, influenced by U.S. inflation trends [15] - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating ongoing interest despite short-term price fluctuations [15] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing a robust upward trend due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [12][36] - Antimony prices are expected to recover as global supply tightens [12][37] 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for various rare earth elements are increasing, driven by export controls and supply disruptions [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [37] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [38] 4.4 Tin - Tin prices are declining due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [39] 4.5 Tungsten - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [40]