过去一周，市场围绕明确的数据和政策节点快速完成定价，而进入下周后，宏观驱动开始发生转移。在 短期缺乏同等分量新变量的情况下，市场更倾向于反复消化已公布信息，并评估其对中期逻辑的影响。 交易层面关注的焦点正在发生变化，包括利率路径是否已被充分计入价格，通胀与增长风险的权重是否 需要重新平衡，以及不同资产之间是否出现阶段性错位。在这一环境中，行情更容易表现为反复拉锯， 而非趋势快速延伸。 随着时间进入12月中下旬，年末流动性对市场的约束开始更加清晰。部分机构进入风险控制与仓位调整 阶段，新增资金入场意愿下降。在这种环境下，市场往往呈现出几个特征：短期波动更容易被放大，关 键技术区间的重要性上升，趋势延续能力减弱，震荡频率相应提高。 从整体结构看，下周市场更可能延续分化运行。风险资产在情绪修复与年末谨慎之间反复切换，缺乏推 动其持续走强的新增变量；避险资产仍具配置价值，但在缺乏新的风险事件前，更可能维持高位整理。 外汇市场方面，主要货币对或进入区间博弈阶段，波动更多来自资金流向与仓位调整，而非宏观方向的 重新选择。 综合来看，下周并非缺乏交易机会，而是对节奏管理提出更高要求。在宏观变量相对有限、流动性逐步 收紧的背 ...

金价在盘中继续呈现承压走势，在4200美元下方窄幅波动，尽管缺乏明显的空头动能，但上行意愿也相 对有限。随着市场风险偏好改善、主要股指维持稳健表现，黄金的避险支撑有所削弱，而美元自前期低 位温和回升，也为金价带来短线压力。整体来看，短期驱动偏弱，但潜在的宽松预期使金价仍具一定支 撑力量。GTC泽汇认为，在多重因素交织影响下，市场短线更倾向于区间整理而非趋势性突破。 近期多项经济数据继续强化宽松预期的逻辑。11月私营部门就业人数意外减少3.2万，与此前增幅形成 鲜明对比，叠加其他经济指标表现趋缓，使市场普遍押注下周政策利率将再度下调25个基点。低利率环 境有助提升无收益资产的相对吸引力；在美元反弹有限的情况下，黄金的中期支撑结构仍相对稳固。与 此同时，外部环境仍存不确定性，使得部分投资者在配置上保持审慎，这在一定程度上限制了金价的深 度回调。市场的关注焦点逐渐集中至即将公布的PCE物价指数，以判断未来的政策路径，而资金面与情 绪在数据落地前都趋于谨慎。GTC泽汇认为，短期市场难以形成强方向，数据发布前的观望氛围将占据 主导。 从交易层面来看，周度初请与企业裁员数据仍将提供短线波动，但其影响力有限。整体市场关注点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is at a crossroads of monetary policy shifts and fiscal sustainability, facing unprecedented complexities due to diverging views within the Federal Reserve and increasing market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [2]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for larger rate cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates, indicating a lack of consensus [2][5]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly, dropping from 90% to approximately 70% [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high, with September inflation reaching its highest level since January, driven by rising prices of essential goods [3]. - The ongoing government shutdown has hindered the collection of critical economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3]. - Tariff policies are contributing to rising consumer costs, with estimates suggesting that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs [3]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 143%, a historical high [5]. - Concerns over high fiscal deficits and excessive bond issuance are leading some investors, like Bill Gross, to sell U.S. Treasury futures, anticipating rising yields [5]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategies - The bond market is expected to experience increased volatility due to multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and the upcoming presidential election [6]. - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to market uncertainties, with suggestions to shift towards longer-term bonds to mitigate exposure to short-term policy fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices fluctuating around $4000 per ounce, influenced by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - The recent drop in international gold prices from a historical high of $4390 per ounce to $3987 per ounce, a nearly 9% decline, was primarily due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar [3][5] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are still in an overbought territory, indicating a need for further adjustment despite recent stabilization [5] - Demand for gold has temporarily weakened as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases with a stronger dollar, leading to reduced investor interest [5] Group 2: Long-term Support Factors - Long-term support for gold remains strong due to persistent inflation, with the U.S. core PCE index still above the 2% target and long-term inflation expectations around 2.5% [3][6] - Central banks globally, including those in Russia and India, have increased their gold holdings by a total of 126 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a significant boost to the gold market [3][6] - Geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the dollar system also contribute to long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid speculative buying in the short term and consider accumulating gold if prices fall below $3800 per ounce, as this level represents a long-term support point [8] - For long-term investment, gold should be included as part of an asset allocation strategy, with a recommended allocation of 10-15% to hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation [9] - The upcoming price movements will reflect a battle between short-term expectations and long-term trends, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investment in gold [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "Rebound"; soda ash is rated as "Oscillation" [2]. - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Upward"; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillation"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Rebound"; gold and silver are rated as "Correction"; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is rated as "Oscillation" [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Weak Oscillation"; logs are rated as "Strong Oscillation"; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "High - level Oscillation"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Oscillation with a Bearish Bias" [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Rebound" [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Rebound"; PX, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See"; PTA and MEG are rated as "Short at High Levels" [9]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The overall supply of iron ore is increasing, demand is relatively low, and port inventories are entering a stocking cycle. Coal and coke prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and high iron - water production. The supply - demand structure of rolled steel has weakened, and glass prices have rebounded at low levels [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation. The stock market shows different trends, and the bond market rebounds slightly. Gold prices may correct in the short term [4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly, while log prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate at high levels. The soybean market is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pig prices are expected to continue rising, driven by supply - demand changes and market sentiment [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely. PX prices follow oil prices, PTA and MEG are suitable for shorting at high levels, and polyester products show different trends [9]. 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recent spot trading is weak, and the basis continues to narrow. Global shipments and arrivals are increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It rebounds in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of iron - water production [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Environmental inspections have led to a decline in coking coal supply, and prices have rebounded strongly. Coke prices are under pressure, and inventories are increasing. Attention should be paid to iron - water production and supply - side trends [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, demand has weakened, production has increased, and inventories have started to rise. The overall demand is difficult to reverse seasonally, and prices may find support at the valley - electricity cost level in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The daily melting volume will first decrease and then increase. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventories are at a high level. Prices have rebounded at low levels, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It shows an oscillating trend [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices show different trends. The central bank's policy suggestions and economic data affect the market. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Although the logic driving the price increase has not completely reversed, prices may correct in the short term due to factors such as interest - rate and tariff policies [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stabilizing, costs are decreasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are increasing, to - be - arrived volumes are expected to decrease, and costs are providing support. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. The supply of soybean oil and palm oil is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Others**: The soybean market is weak due to favorable weather and high production. Domestic imports are large, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side sentiment is strong, and prices are rising. The average transaction weight is decreasing, and prices are expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand shows a structural recovery, and inventories are in different states. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, supply is increasing, and prices follow oil prices [9]. - **PTA**: Costs are oscillating after a decline, and the supply - demand situation is weakening in the medium term. Prices follow costs in the short term [9]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are low, and the supply - demand situation is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. Prices are affected by the general market atmosphere [9]. - **PR**: Driven by cost factors, the market may adjust with a bullish bias [9]. - **PF**: Terminal performance is average, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the gold price trend remains upward despite fluctuations caused by tariff expectations, with a strong focus on inflation resilience and long-term interest rates [5] - Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating around a cost level of $9,350 due to tariff uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [6] - Aluminum prices are projected to rise, supported by strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [6] - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to tight supply and stable demand from the steel sector [7] - Rare earth prices are under short-term pressure but are expected to recover as export controls ease and mining quotas are issued [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,668.39, with a weekly high of 5,020.22 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price declines: Copper down 1.03%, Aluminum down 1.39%, Zinc down 2.93%, Lead down 1.23%, and Tin down 6.73% - Precious metals experienced mixed results: Gold up 0.41%, Silver down 0.93%, Platinum down 9.60% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: Copper down 11,442 tons, Aluminum down 12,499 tons, Zinc down 12,099 tons, Lead down 4,080 tons, Tin down 106 tons, and Nickel down 681 tons [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are on an upward trend, driven by resilient inflation and trade tensions, particularly with the potential for increased tariffs on Europe [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating tariffs, with a price center around $9,300 [5] - Aluminum prices are forecasted to rise due to strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [5] - Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, supported by better-than-expected export recovery [6] - Rare earth prices are under pressure due to increased imports, but long-term investment opportunities are suggested as supply constraints may tighten [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - LME copper increased by 0.62%, while aluminum decreased by 0.60%. Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.98% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 14,348 tons, and aluminum inventory decreased by 11,426 tons [26]