新华财经北京11月3日电（王菁）近期，美联储降息并宣布将结束QT，IMF预测2030年美国债务率或突破143%，截至10月末中美利差进一步走阔至约230 个基点．．．．．．当下，美债市场正站在货币政策转向与财政可持续性的十字路口。 美联储在当地时间10月29日结束的货币政策会议上，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储今年以来第二次降 息，同时宣布将于12月1日正式结束缩减资产负债表（QT）的计划。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上却释放了复杂信号，他明确表示"12月再次降息并非板上钉钉"。这种看似矛盾的态度反映了美联储在当前环境下 的两难境地。 业内人士对新华财经表示，美联储内部共识似乎正在破裂，出现了六年以来首次的"双向异议"。在10月的投票中，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰主张更大幅度 的降息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德则倾向于维持利率不变。 这种分歧在近期进一步公开化，多位美联储官员表达了相反立场：达拉斯联储主席洛根和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德均明确表示反对进一步的降息，强 调"通胀压力依然存在，政策过早放松或削弱美联储对2%目标的承诺"。而美联储理事 ...

首先，美联储政策预期的变化是关键。尽管10月美联储降息25个基点，但鲍威尔暗示"12月降息并非板上钉钉"，市场对12月降息的概率预期从 91.6%骤降至67.8%。如果12月降息预期进一步降低，美元指数可能继续走强，黄金价格将面临压力。 其次，技术面的调整压力较大。近期，黄金价格从历史高点暴跌近9%，虽然已经企稳，但技术指标显示，金价仍处于超买区间，需要进一步调 整。此外，市场对黄金的需求暂时萎缩，因为购买黄金的机会成本随着美元走强而增加，投资者对黄金的需求有所减少。 利好因素：长期支撑依然存在 尽管短期面临压力，但黄金的长期支撑因素依然坚实。首先，通胀韧性持续存在，美国核心PCE仍高于2%的目标水平，长期通胀预期维持在2.5? %的区间，黄金作为抗通胀的"神器"，其配置价值依然凸显。其次，全球央行持续购金，俄罗斯、印度等央行在2025年前三季度合计增持了126 吨黄金，为黄金市场注入了强心针。此外，地缘政治风险、美元体系重构等因素，也为黄金价格提供了长期支撑。 11月的黄金市场，像一场即将拉开帷幕的大戏，每一个波动都牵动着投资者的心弦。当前，国际金价在4000美元/盎司附近震荡，国内金价虽受 汇率影响略有波 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "Rebound"; soda ash is rated as "Oscillation" [2]. - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Upward"; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillation"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Rebound"; gold and silver are rated as "Correction"; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is rated as "Oscillation" [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Weak Oscillation"; logs are rated as "Strong Oscillation"; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "High - level Oscillation"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Oscillation with a Bearish Bias" [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Rebound" [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Rebound"; PX, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See"; PTA and MEG are rated as "Short at High Levels" [9]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The overall supply of iron ore is increasing, demand is relatively low, and port inventories are entering a stocking cycle. Coal and coke prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and high iron - water production. The supply - demand structure of rolled steel has weakened, and glass prices have rebounded at low levels [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation. The stock market shows different trends, and the bond market rebounds slightly. Gold prices may correct in the short term [4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly, while log prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate at high levels. The soybean market is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pig prices are expected to continue rising, driven by supply - demand changes and market sentiment [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely. PX prices follow oil prices, PTA and MEG are suitable for shorting at high levels, and polyester products show different trends [9]. 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recent spot trading is weak, and the basis continues to narrow. Global shipments and arrivals are increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It rebounds in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of iron - water production [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Environmental inspections have led to a decline in coking coal supply, and prices have rebounded strongly. Coke prices are under pressure, and inventories are increasing. Attention should be paid to iron - water production and supply - side trends [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, demand has weakened, production has increased, and inventories have started to rise. The overall demand is difficult to reverse seasonally, and prices may find support at the valley - electricity cost level in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The daily melting volume will first decrease and then increase. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventories are at a high level. Prices have rebounded at low levels, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It shows an oscillating trend [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices show different trends. The central bank's policy suggestions and economic data affect the market. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Although the logic driving the price increase has not completely reversed, prices may correct in the short term due to factors such as interest - rate and tariff policies [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stabilizing, costs are decreasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are increasing, to - be - arrived volumes are expected to decrease, and costs are providing support. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. The supply of soybean oil and palm oil is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Others**: The soybean market is weak due to favorable weather and high production. Domestic imports are large, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side sentiment is strong, and prices are rising. The average transaction weight is decreasing, and prices are expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand shows a structural recovery, and inventories are in different states. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, supply is increasing, and prices follow oil prices [9]. - **PTA**: Costs are oscillating after a decline, and the supply - demand situation is weakening in the medium term. Prices follow costs in the short term [9]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are low, and the supply - demand situation is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. Prices are affected by the general market atmosphere [9]. - **PR**: Driven by cost factors, the market may adjust with a bullish bias [9]. - **PF**: Terminal performance is average, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [9].

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-03 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4668.39 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《黄金上行开始，持续关注黄金股投 资机会》 - 2025.05.26 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.26- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are on an upward trend, driven by resilient inflation and trade tensions, particularly with the potential for increased tariffs on Europe [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating tariffs, with a price center around $9,300 [5] - Aluminum prices are forecasted to rise due to strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [5] - Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, supported by better-than-expected export recovery [6] - Rare earth prices are under pressure due to increased imports, but long-term investment opportunities are suggested as supply constraints may tighten [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - LME copper increased by 0.62%, while aluminum decreased by 0.60%. Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.98% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 14,348 tons, and aluminum inventory decreased by 11,426 tons [26]