1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The long - term expectation of the nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside potential [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, and steel prices will fluctuate at a low level [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing but the total amount is low, and the short - term trend is sideways [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Affected by production cut news, attention should be paid to the upside space [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should also be paid to the upside space [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,635 yuan. There were also detailed data on prices, premiums, spreads, and profits in the industrial chain [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of the 2507 and 2509 contracts showed different changes compared to previous periods. There were also data on warehouse receipts, basis, and prices of various lithium - related products in the industrial chain [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. China's automobile export volume is expected to grow, which may affect lithium demand [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of the Si2509 and PS2508 contracts. Also included were data on spreads, basis, prices, profits, and inventories in the industrial chain, as well as raw material costs [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: A solar cell and module manufacturing plant in Indonesia jointly established by Longi Green Energy was launched, which will increase Indonesia's solar energy production capacity [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US economic soft data shows signs of weakening, with the labor market remaining stable overall. The Fed maintains the current policy rate but emphasizes future economic uncertainty, raising inflation expectations and lowering economic growth forecasts. There are stagflation risks, and macro - pressure persists [3]. - Fundamental situation: Nickel ore prices stay high, with most Indonesian ferronickel plants in a cost - upside - down state, and some plan to cut production. Traditional terminals remain weak, stainless - steel prices decline, suppressing steel mills' restocking. New - energy consumption performs well, and overall demand is slightly weak. Supply shows signs of narrowing, but the export window is open, keeping supply at a relatively high level [3]. - Future outlook: With the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and the potential rise in global crude oil prices, US inflation pressure may increase. Fundamentals may be revised, mainly driven by production - cut expectations due to low corporate profits. Consumption may remain stable, with traditional sectors weak and the new - energy sector potentially having an increase. Nickel prices may rebound slightly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price decreased from 119,690 yuan/ton to 118,280 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,410 yuan/ton; LME nickel price fell from 15,069 dollars/ton to 15,011 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58 dollars/ton [5]. - LME inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 681 tons to 21,669 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price decreased from 947 yuan/nickel point to 942 yuan/nickel point [5]. - Stainless - steel inventory increased from 91.7 tons to 92.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [5]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: Philippine nickel ore prices rose, while Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices declined. The acceptance of high - priced ore by downstream is weak, and July pre - sales transactions are scarce [6]. - **Ferronickel**: High - nickel pig iron prices dropped. Chinese ferronickel production in May increased, and imports decreased. Indonesian ferronickel production in May increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. Ferronickel may face the most pressure in the industry chain, with high upstream costs and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Nickel sulfate**: Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices decreased. June production is expected to decline year - on - year and month - on - month. Ternary material production increased. Downstream inventory decreased, and upstream inventory increased. Nickel sulfate prices may continue to be weak [8]. - **Macro and fundamentals**: US economic soft data weakened, with consumption and output growth rates declining. The Fed maintains the current interest rate policy but raises inflation expectations and lowers economic growth forecasts. In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is stable in June, but smelter production schedules decline. In terms of consumption, new - energy vehicle sales in the first half of June increased year - on - year, but the growth rate in the second week weakened. Inventory shows a mixed trend, with LME inventory increasing and SHFE inventory decreasing [8][9][10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia lowers the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade in June by about 1.19% compared to the first - phase [14]. - Indonesia plans to punish a nickel park suspected of violating environmental regulations, which may affect some major nickel suppliers [14]. - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution plan to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North America, aiming to recycle valuable metals from battery waste [14]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic expectations are somewhat divided. The US manufacturing PMI has a revision expectation, but the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment expectation is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost support logic still exists, and the price may be corrected as the rumor about the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines is unconfirmed, but macro - disturbances need to be watched out for [3][11]. - On the fundamental side, last week, the rumor that the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines might be increased to 3.2 billion tons hit the previous strong cost - support expectation, and the nickel price hit a new low. After the rumor was unconfirmed, the main contract significantly reduced positions, pushing up the price. The supply of Indonesian laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the spot premium stays at a high level. The demand side has no incremental expectation, and the supply may remain high driven by export profits [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121100 | 122780 | - 1680 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15237 | 15594 | - 357 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 199380 | 198636 | 744 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22057 | 22250 | - 193 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Ore The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remains at $48.5 per wet ton, and that in Indonesia remains at $40.8 per wet ton. The rumor of increasing the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines has not been confirmed, and the short - term cost - support logic still applies [6]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 952 yuan per nickel point to 955 yuan per nickel point. In May, the expected output of Chinese ferronickel was about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The import volume of domestic ferronickel in April was about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The expected output of Indonesian ferronickel in May was 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of +16.9%/-0.47%. Domestic steel enterprises have production - control expectations, and stainless - steel production may be suppressed. In addition, some stainless - steel plants and ferronickel plants in Indonesia are expected to reduce production, and the traditional consumption area may be sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,015 yuan per ton to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan per ton. In May, the expected output of nickel sulfate in terms of metal was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of -20.51%/0.39%. In June, the output of ternary materials is expected to increase month - on - month, about 64,600 tons in total, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of +30.95%/+1.36%. The consumption increment in the new - energy field is not clear, and it is difficult to have an obvious driving force for price increase [8]. 3.2.4 Macro - level Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but was later postponed. The market generally believes that Trump's tariff policy will still show the characteristic of "starting high and ending low". The US core PCE in April was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure has eased, which may boost the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [3][9]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - level - Supply side: In May, domestic production capacity was stable, and smelter production scheduling declined. The expected output of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons. The export scale of domestic electrolytic nickel in April was about 17,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150.3%. As of May 30, the export profit of Chinese nickel was $53.99 per ton. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has a strong willingness to buy at low prices [9]. - Terminal consumption: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 53.5%. The consumption increment of new - energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to heavy - duty trucks and electric boats [10]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,057 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 193 tons, and the LME inventory is 199,380 tons, a month - on - month increase of 744 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 221,437 tons, a month - on - month increase of 551 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The 2.5 - billion - yuan lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou Dalong is expected to start trial production this year, with an estimated annual output value of 10 billion yuan after full operation [12]. - Guangxi Jinchuan Company has developed a new method for producing nickel sulfate [12]. - Trump postponed the decision on imposing a 50% tariff on the EU [12]. - The US International Trade Court initially blocked Trump's tariff measures, but the decision was postponed [12]. 3.4 Later Outlook The macro - economic expectations are divided, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost - support logic still exists. Since the rumor about the approval quota is unconfirmed, the price may have a small - scale rebound, but macro - disturbances need to be vigilant [11].