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中信证券:关注年内两个关键时点 继续聚焦A股和港股核心资产
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-03-24 06:59
Key Points - The report from CITIC Securities highlights two critical time points in the year: the first is the external risk landing in early April, which is expected to create trading opportunities, and the second is the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. around mid-year, which will provide allocation opportunities for core assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Key Time Points - The first key time point is the external risk landing in early April, including the results of the U.S. trade policy memo and the clarity on "reciprocal tariffs." This is expected to lead to trading opportunities in the technology sector due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts [2][3] - The second key time point is the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. in mid-year, which may lead to the fourth round of economic stimulus in China since 2013, as the U.S. faces economic weakening and increased tariff pressures [2][8] Group 2: Trading Opportunities - Following the external risk landing in early April, the technology sector is anticipated to experience new trading opportunities, particularly in the context of the U.S. trade policy developments and the expected adjustments in the macroeconomic environment [3][4] - The report emphasizes that edge AI is likely to be a significant catalyst for market movements, with upcoming product launches, particularly from companies like Xiaomi, expected to boost market sentiment [4][10] Group 3: Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on core assets in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors such as domestic computing power, edge AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong [10] - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to sectors that may experience potential earnings surprises in Q1, including wind power components, engineering machinery, automotive electronics, and service consumption [10]