尿素2025年6月报： 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响，5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡，下旬回归实际供需矛盾，尿素产销转弱，价格高位回落，接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨，较上月底下调84元/吨，尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨，较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格（元/吨） 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差：5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，5月30日9-1价差70元/吨， ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 18 元至 1773 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 10 元至 1850 元/吨，多头持仓增加 10651 手至 18.36 万手，空头持仓增加 7278 手至 17.18 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.46 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.02 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | 期增加 3.12 万吨；开工 88.96%，较去年同期 80.07%提升 8.89%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 98.06 万吨，较上周增加 6.32 万吨，环比增 | | | | 加 | 6.89%。尿素港口库存 ...

观点：政策左右 南华尿素产业链数据周报20250602 尿素周报观点 供应：本周期部分企业检修：兖矿鲁南化工。本周期恢复的企业：江苏晋煤恒盛化工、云南大为制氨、安徽泉盛化 工。下周尿素日产量将在 20.5万吨附近。 张博（Z0021070） 尿素区域现货流通图 2 库存：截至2025年5月28日，中国尿素企业总库存量98.06 万吨，环比+6.32 万吨，中国主要港口尿素库存统计 20.5 万吨，环比+0.2 万吨。 需求：农业方面，麦收开展之后玉米肥追肥有启动预期，当前启动迹象暂不明显，仅零星跟进为主。工业方面，复 合肥开工有减弱迹象，后续生产结束，对尿素消耗有下降预期，出口方面，后续厂检有开展表现，短期内对市场心 态有提振作用。 现货：本周日山东1810（09基差-37），河南1800（09基差-47） 策略观点：假期内氮肥协会发布对6月的各区域的尿素出厂指导价建议为5月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导 价基础上浮100元，协会规定在作出调整之前不得擅自突破最高价。受此影响山东尿素工厂收单转好，现货调涨。预 计尿素价格短期呈现震荡运行的格局。基本面来看，在国内基本面与政策共同抑制下，尿素上方空间较为有限 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 爆炸事件导致康宽及 K 胺供需趋 紧，有望推动农药行业景气加速修 复，硝化棉价格或继续上行 看好 ——《化工周报 25/05/26-25/05/30》 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230124070001 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项 ...

大宗商品研究所 能源化工研发报告 尿素 6 月报 2025 年 5 月 30 日 【尿素月报】供需双旺，尿素宽幅震荡 第一部分 前言摘要 供应端：进入 6 月份，随着主流区域尿素出厂价格止跌，而当前原料无烟煤价格弱 势，当前尿素行业整体利润维持稳定，晋城地区 6800K 无烟小块出厂价 960 元/吨，阳 泉无烟块煤价格 800 元/吨，榆林沫煤延续下跌态势，5800 大卡含税出厂价大跌至 470 元/吨，烟块煤 6200 大卡含税出厂价大跌至 490 元/吨，尿素现货价格区间震荡，固定床 工艺生产完全利润 170 元/吨；水煤浆工艺生产利润位置 300 元/吨，气流床工艺利润 520 元/吨，预计 6 月份，随着国煤价平稳，尿素出厂价底部有支撑，预计利润将会维持。 进入 6 月份，国内西南、西北气头检修装置满产运行，煤头检修装置恢复，同时 4 月底 江苏恒盛顺利投产，尿素日均产量将进一步攀升，截至 5 月底，国内尿素日均产量高达 20.3 万吨附近，国内供应整体持续宽松为主，预计 6 月份国内尿素日均产量将维持在 20 万吨附近。 需求端：进入 6 月份，国内刚性需求仍有一定释放，东北地区春耕备肥基本结束， ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with watermelon, citrus, and banana decreasing by 6.7%, 1.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.13 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with eggplant, green beans, and cucumber decreasing by 5.5%, 3.8%, and 3.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.60 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.5%, while lamb remained stable and beef increased by 0.2% [1] - Wholesale prices of grain and oil showed a stable increase, with flour, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil rising by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly increased, with carp, crucian carp, and grass carp rising by 1.5%, 1.5%, and 1.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel dropping by 2.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively [2] - Coal prices experienced minor decreases, with coking coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 962 yuan, 1165 yuan, and 753 yuan per ton, down by 0.9%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Steel prices generally decreased, with rebar, ordinary high-speed wire rod, and channel steel priced at 3451 yuan, 3659 yuan, and 3666 yuan per ton, all down by 0.4% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices mainly declined, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.7% and 0.6%, while aluminum increased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly receded, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene decreasing by 1.6% and 0.4%, while sulfuric acid remained stable and soda ash increased by 0.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Guo Chemical plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement to invest in a 280,000 tons/year battery-grade refined phosphoric acid project, with a total investment of 1.194 billion yuan and a payback period of 6.55 years [1][9]. Company Overview - Liu Guo Chemical primarily engages in the production and sales of phosphate fertilizers and fine chemical products, being one of the largest integrated manufacturers in East China [5]. - The company has production capacities of 450,000 tons/year for monoammonium phosphate, 640,000 tons/year for diammonium phosphate, 300,000 tons/year for urea, and 1,550,000 tons/year for compound fertilizers [5]. Industry Context - Since 2014, China's phosphate fertilizer usage has declined from 8.4534 million tons to 5.3630 million tons in 2023, reaching a recent low due to government policies promoting modern agriculture and controlling traditional fertilizer usage [5]. - Phosphate and compound fertilizers are the main revenue sources for the company, generating sales revenues of 2.680 billion yuan and 2.183 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 42.88% and 34.93% of total revenue as of December 31, 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue has continuously declined from 7.549 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.251 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company has also decreased significantly from 237 million yuan in 2021 to 2.3 million yuan in 2023, with a slight recovery to 2.5 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross profit margin fell from 14.85% in 2021 to 8.05% in 2023, with a minor recovery to 9.36% in 2024 [6]. Strategic Shift - In response to ongoing pressures in the traditional fertilizer business, the company is transitioning towards high-value sectors, specifically producing and selling battery-grade refined phosphoric acid [8]. - The planned fundraising will significantly enhance the company's refined phosphoric acid production capacity, aligning with the growing demand from the rapidly developing electric vehicle and energy storage industries [9]. Market Dynamics - The refined phosphoric acid is a core raw material for lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are experiencing high growth in demand [9]. - However, the industry faces challenges with an oversupply of lithium iron phosphate battery capacity, leading to project terminations by other companies in the sector [10].

以下文章来源于全说能源 ，作者全说能源 全说能源 . 国际能源、石油和天然气问题分析和评论 文 | 全说能源 来源 | 全说能源 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 --世界银行《新冠大流行后的商品周期：一个新时代？》述评 55年间，石油等27种大宗商品价格平均4年变化一次，衰退期为52个月而繁荣期为38个月，三分之二处于同一周期，但新冠以来周期 更短。 专题研究的数据，来源于世界银行的数据库。 专题研究的主要术语和概念 峰值和低谷。局部最大值定义为峰值，局部最小值定义为低谷。 衰退和繁荣。 峰值和低谷之间的时间段称为衰退（或下降阶段），而低谷和峰值之间的时间段称为繁荣（或上升阶段）。繁荣和衰退，共 同构成了一个完整周期的各个阶段。一个完整的峰值到峰值（PP）周期，被定义为一个衰退之后随之到来的繁荣，而一个完整的低谷到低 谷（TT）周期被定义为一个繁荣之后随之到来的衰退。 作为一个观察、实践和研究世界石油和能源问题逾40年的人士，最关心并最想得到答案的问题是国际石油价格的变化有没有规律可言，这 肯定也是世界上无数同行最关心的问题。2025年4月29日，世界银行发布2025年4月《大宗商品展望》报告，其中附 ...

芭田股份分析师会议 调研日期：2025年05月23日 / 调研行业：化肥行业 参与调研的机构：博时、山西证券股份、国盛证券、海南省亿能 投资、东北证券股份等 | Gallia | | | --- | --- | | 11 2 12 200 2 110 | | | 1:给我们 = 影片面临官 = | | | 阿里巴巴佩尼 | | | 钢铁机之题。 8 | 图纸制图: 23 | | 20GB Millio Aller 19 | | | 海双集团 | | | 1 1 80.0 0 | 总机构建 23 | | LOGA: REGH, KETA: 1986 | | | 小麦具日 | | | 的研究次数:8 | 上机构馆:23 | | 定年代的:用者点击:我要的中:主要原因 | | | START SHILL CARD | | | 颜的集团 | | | 例体位次数 4 | 24/40 33 | | FININ EXIAN, BENN, LEWI | | | 極力集团 | | | · 例计以上的 8 | 品机构管 23 | 调研基本情况 调研对象：芭田股份 所属行业：化肥行业 接待时间：2025-05-23 上市公司接待人 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. aims to become a flagship leading listed company by focusing on internal management to address external uncertainties and implementing strategies to manage production and market operations effectively [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.333 billion yuan, while in the first quarter of 2025, the net profit reached 1.289 billion yuan [1] Operational Strategy - The company adheres to a strategy of "full load, quick turnover, low inventory, and risk prevention" to overcome challenges such as fluctuations in raw material and product prices [1] - The company is actively advancing the preliminary development of the Zhenxiong phosphate mine and progressing with the construction of the Kunyang No. 2 mining project and a 4.5 million tons/year phosphate flotation project [1] Resource Utilization - The phosphate flotation recovery rate has exceeded 95%, and the tailings grade has been reduced to below 6%, enhancing resource utilization capabilities [1] - The company has established a research institute to integrate internal R&D resources, focusing on efficient development of phosphate resources and cost reduction in fertilizer production [2]