风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，地方成建制连锁品牌仍然稀缺，看好存量头部机构持续扩大市场份额。 奢侈品：宏观经济影响奢侈品销售表现，景气略有承压，但部分抓住需求趋势的品牌表现突出，建议关注。 咖啡茶饮：行业景气度稳健向上，京东近期减少中小商家外卖补贴力度，关注平台补贴节奏变化对行业影响。 OTA：行业景气度稳健向上，旅游大盘稳健增长，OTA 渠道价值依旧不容忽视，携程海外业务"招兵买马"加速扩 张。 电商：电商大盘景气略有承压，阿里/京东/美团在电商&外卖&即时零售上的竞争依旧持续，近期部分地区国补暂 停;电商平台依旧处于"618"活动大促期，关注大促收官平台表现。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需相关的优质互联网资产，规模效应持续驱动盈利杠杆释放，行业高景气度维 持，我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台。本周 TME 拟全资收购喜马拉雅，音乐和长音频形成用户和内容互补。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：本周《Genius 法案》通过美参议 ...

2025/0609 湾财 2025/0615 ස || 车企集体承诺 供应商账期 THEFUFF IFA FE · 全面放开!广州拟取消住房限购限售,还降首付利率 行 810 · 新能源车企IPO放缓!一家暂停上市 ·大涨274%、市值超700亿! "全球智能影像第一股"来了 · 蜜雪冰城香港一门店被通报: 冰冻甜点大肠菌群超标70% · 全球首款L3级算力AI汽车亮相, 小鹏G7小订已破1万 ·颖通控股冲刺"中国香水第一股", 高度依赖品牌授权 bu 平安银行拉布布可 · 存款送Labubu、苏超VIP?银行"卷"出新高度 · 暴雨引外墙墙皮高空脱落? 华发在深项目遭业主投诉 · 全球最大!深圳室内雪世界预计四季度开业 · 要提的荣威新车库存近一年, 轮胎出厂已近三年!车主退定遭拒 · 打败专业律所,4人公司中标深圳政府千万大单? 公司新闻 · 降价保销售额? 星巴克连续十个财季降价,还要发力非咖啡饮品 【头条】 车企集体承诺60天账期,有望重塑汽车产业链竞争逻辑 作为整治汽车行业内卷的组合拳，工信部、国资委等国家部委就保障产业链供应链稳定、促进汽车产业 高质量发展作出一系列部署要求。 近日，以自主品牌为主 ...

6月13日，"龙城有意思・一起快乐咖啡"咖啡节第三季在深圳市龙岗区吉祥社区万科广场开启。这场由政府搭台、企业唱戏的城市消费盛宴，以"咖啡为媒・ 非遗焕新・科技破界"为核心，融合传统民俗、智能科技与咖啡文化，为市民打造沉浸式消费新场景。 传统与科技碰撞 演绎咖啡节高光时刻 Prop unit e 510 the p 意式手工冰淇淋 t | 2 100 minn ranth | I # 出版 ■ N receivening m USBANAJURAH 000000 回 HO OS BO 单位 度 87 手 超 在 第二 M FJ HAPPY (2 C 政府搭台完善基础设施，企业则在消费场景创新中担纲主角。荣耀新机华南首秀、小米彩虹车展与特斯拉赛博越野车展强势助阵，咖啡节秒变"潮流科技 展"；咖啡机器人在线炫技，摇臂咖啡仪式感拉满。粤港澳大湾区精品咖啡品牌与IP潮创摊位组成"咖啡文化矩阵"，从手冲单品到创意特调，从文创手作到 非遗糖画，构建起"咖啡+商圈+人文"的立体消费生态。 从街区焕新到经济提振 咖啡香里的城市升级密码 鸿基商业街作为活动核心区域，已从昔日老旧街区蜕变为"咖啡主题微旅游目的地"。260米长的街道 ...

整理 ｜ 李小霞 #Big News# 泡泡玛特IP珠宝店首店开张 泡泡玛特的业务版图继续扩张。 6月13日，泡泡玛特旗下独立珠宝品牌popop全球首店在上海港汇恒隆广场开业。该店集结了泡泡玛 特旗下HIRONO、SKULLPANDA、MOLLY、CRYBABY、LABUBU等热门IP的珠宝，价格区间在 319-2699元。 泡泡玛特创始人王宁表示："我们其实一直也希望能够通过不同的品类去拓展更多的可能性，珠宝是 我们一直在尝试的非常重要的品类。" 据悉，popop瞄准的是全球500亿美元的时尚珠宝市场，凭借现有70-75%的女性用户基础和IP品牌 力，有望在欧美市场获得更大份额。 近日，凭借labubu等热门IP，泡泡玛特股价持续走高，截至6月13日收盘，市值高达3600多亿港元， 王宁更是一跃成为河南首富。 不久前召开的业绩说明会上，王宁公布了2025年核心业绩目标：在2024年的基础上增长50%以上， 实现总营收200亿元的目标；海外市场成为第二增长曲线，2025年海外收入目标100亿元。 6月13日，永辉超市胖东来模式调改完成全国100店，江苏南京江宁万达广场店正式开业。 Zara母公司Inditex ...

Core Viewpoint - The coffee market in Jinan is experiencing an intensified price war, with major brands like Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, and Kudi Coffee significantly reducing their prices to attract customers [1][5][11]. Price War Dynamics - The price war has been ongoing for two years, with recent escalations noted in April and June 2023, as Starbucks joined the trend of lowering prices [1][5]. - Starbucks has reduced prices on several non-coffee products by an average of 3-5 yuan, with some items now priced as low as 23 yuan per cup [1][3]. - Luckin Coffee is offering promotional prices, with some drinks available for as low as 6.9 yuan per cup, leading to increased order volumes [3][4]. Market Competition - Jinan's coffee market is highly competitive, with over 2,600 coffee-related enterprises, including 366 established in the past year [9][11]. - The presence of multiple brands, including Starbucks, Luckin, Kudi, and local cafes, contributes to a dense market environment, particularly in commercial areas [9][11]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, often comparing prices across various platforms before making purchases, with some drinks now cheaper than bottled beverages [5][6]. - The trend of low-priced coffee has attracted new customers who previously did not consume coffee [5][6]. Business Strategies - Kudi Coffee has stated that the 9.9 yuan price point has become a significant price range in the industry, and they plan to maintain this pricing strategy for at least three years [6]. - Industry experts indicate that while low prices may boost sales, they also pose challenges related to supply chain management, service efficiency, and product quality [8][11]. Long-term Outlook - The ongoing price war is reshaping consumer expectations and brand loyalty, with a potential return to rational pricing in the long term [11]. - The industry may face a process of elimination, where only brands that can maintain quality and operational efficiency will survive [11].

进入中国市场25年来，主力产品首次降价，这对星巴克来说不是容易的决定。 面对快速增长的非咖市场，星巴克中国宣布自6月10日起，星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大系列共10款产品降价，以大杯规格计算，平均每杯降价5元。 2024年，星巴克新任CEO布莱恩·尼科尔（Brian Niccol）就曾表示，星巴克需要回归其可以让人们悠闲逗留的咖啡店的本源，同时重新思考定价问题。 思考了近1年后，降价终于落地中国市场。在是否降价这个问题上，星巴克中国近两年是纠结的。虽做过谨慎尝试，如通过发放优惠券间接降价，但这些尝 试似乎总是浅尝辄止。在竞争过于激烈的中国咖啡市场，即使不是从打价格战的角度出发，战略层面的反复横跳也绝非明智之举。从这个意义上说，星巴克 此次"实打实"降价的最大考验就在于战略的可持续性。 从这些层面看，降价应该不是星巴克针对中国咖啡市场价格战的短期回应。星巴克中国仍需要回答一些更根本的问题：作为市场的教育者，如何在消费者逐 渐成熟、本土竞争者崛起的时候仍能保持领先？星巴克又将如何定义"领先"？ 此外，当前这个时间节点也很微妙，除了在冰饮畅销季提升相关非咖产品市场竞争力的考虑，此时降价或许还与此前市场频繁传闻的星巴克 ...

Group 1 - Uganda's coffee production is on the rise, increasing from 7.8 million bags in the 2022/23 fiscal year to 8.2 million bags in the 2023/24 fiscal year, with export revenue soaring from $845 million to $1.144 billion [1] - The Ugandan government plans to allocate 30 billion shillings to the National Coffee Research Institute (NaCORI) by the 2025/26 fiscal year to support the development of high-yield, pest-resistant, and climate-adaptive coffee varieties, aiming to boost annual production to 20 million bags by 2030 [1] Group 2 - Despite agriculture providing employment for most of Uganda's population, its contribution to GDP has declined from 34.1% in 2000 to 24.9% currently, indicating low productivity and value addition in the sector [2] - The coffee industry presents a unique opportunity to reverse this trend and catalyze social and economic transformation, necessitating increased local value addition and investment in agricultural industrialization and strategic infrastructure [2] - The Luwero Coffee Project, led by Nonda Commodities in collaboration with Ingazi Group International and the Ugandan government, aims to process over 35,000 tons of coffee annually, becoming one of the largest coffee value addition centers in the country [2]

Group 1: Company Developments - San Yuan Foods launched a new IP "Beijing Milk Company" and opened tea shops, focusing on fresh milk and retail products priced between 10.9 to 25.9 yuan, with plans to add 5-6 more stores within the year [1] - PULL-TAB Coffee opened its first store in Singapore, featuring a unique pull-tab design and a variety of coffee products, including local flavor-infused creative coffee drinks, with plans to open 10-20 overseas stores in 2025 [2] - Tims Coffee increased its registered capital from 16,850 million USD to 16,990 million USD, indicating growth and expansion in the Chinese market [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The tea beverage market is highly competitive, and San Yuan Foods needs to enhance its fresh milk offerings and speed up market response [1] - The beverage industry is undergoing a digital transformation, as seven government departments in China issued a plan to accelerate the digitalization of the food and beverage industry, focusing on innovation and upgrading [6] - Nestlé Coffee exceeded its 2025 target by sourcing 32% of its coffee from farmers using regenerative agricultural practices, reflecting a strong appeal of such practices among coffee farmers [4] Group 3: Brand Reputation Issues - The tea brand "Grandpa Doesn't Brew Tea" faced public backlash for inviting a controversial influencer to an event, raising concerns about the brand's risk awareness and marketing strategies [3]

图片来源：视觉中国 星巴克中国正在采取与其他国家市场不同的战术。 去年9月正式上任的星巴克董事长、首席执行官Brian Niccol，主张从根本上改变公司战略。他上任后的 计划是——精简菜单、减少折扣、慢而有序的创新、缩减下一财年的新店数量以释放资金支持转型。 而星巴克未把中国市场放在该调整计划之中。当时Niccol坦言，中国市场竞争非常激烈，星巴克需要想 清楚如何在当下和未来实现增长。 近期的消息表明，星巴克中国正在走一条与全球市场不同的路。 财报或许是指引这家全球最大咖啡连锁品牌做出选择的关键因素——根据星巴克中国4月30日发布的 2025财年第二财季业绩报告，当季公司营业收入为7.397亿美元，同比增长5%。中国同店交易量增长 4%，止住了2024年以来持续的下跌趋势。作为对比，北美市场第二财季同店交易量下降4%。 中国市场的表现对这家公司而言愈发重要。而这片市场由于其独特之处，注定无法与其他市场采取相似 的战术。 6月11日消息，据英国《金融时报》报道，星巴克首席执行官Brian Niccol表示，星巴克可能出售中国业 务的股权，并称此事引起了"极大兴趣"。该公司正在寻找有兴趣将该连锁门店从约8000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coffee industry is experiencing a significant disruption due to an intense price war among delivery platforms, leading to a stark divide where large coffee chains thrive while small brands and cafes struggle to survive [1][5][10] Group 1: Impact on Large Coffee Chains - Major coffee chains are benefiting from the ongoing delivery subsidy war, with sales volumes skyrocketing. For instance, Kudi Coffee's sales reached 80 million cups on June 2 and surpassed 100 million cups by June 9 [3][4] - The average monthly sales for Luckin Coffee are projected to be 250 million cups, indicating a substantial increase in demand driven by aggressive pricing strategies [3] - The price of fast coffee has dropped significantly, with some products available for as low as 5.9 yuan due to various promotional discounts [2][3] Group 2: Challenges for Small Coffee Brands - Small coffee shops and independent brands are facing severe challenges, with reports of sales halving due to the competitive pricing of larger chains [5][8] - Many small brands are unable to compete with the scale and pricing of major chains, leading to a loss of market share and customer base [8][10] - The cost structure for small coffee shops is unsustainable under the current pricing pressures, with some reporting losses on each cup sold after accounting for delivery fees and marketing subsidies [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing subsidy war is reshaping consumer behavior, with many consumers now prioritizing low-cost coffee options over quality [10][13] - The market is witnessing a consolidation phase, where smaller brands may be forced out due to their inability to compete, while larger chains continue to expand their market presence [9][10] - Experts suggest that small brands need to differentiate themselves through unique products and services to survive in this competitive landscape [13]