s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指示 | 11/7 | 12/3 | 12/5 | 12/8 | 12/9 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 12 | 78 | 42 | 51 | -2863 | -2914 | - | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 142 | 88 | 92 | 81 | -2943 | -3024 | 1. | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 182 | 18 | -18 | ﮯ | -2943 | -2944 | - | | | 12-01 | 4 | -25 | -26 | -22 | -21 | | | | | 12-03 | -38 | -52 | -51 | -62 | -56 | 6 | | | | 01-02 | -16 | -9 | -11 | -18 | -15 | 3 | | | 4:11:1 | BU主力合约(01) | 3048 | 2952 | 2948 | 2959 | 2943 | -16 | | | ...

1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is affected by refinery device changes. The supply incremental is less than expected due to the delay and shortening of the Dangote refinery's gasoline device maintenance plan. The Al - Zour refinery's device delay provides support. The supply gap disturbance from South Sudan has subsided. Demand for winter power generation lacks a driver, and attention should be paid to winter temperatures and natural gas conditions in Europe and East Asia [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot window transaction price continues to decline, and the spot premium remains at a low level. It is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend in the fourth quarter. Russian exports are slightly affected by attacks, and Mexican exports have increased recently. The feed demand for fuel oil is expected to weaken due to the upcoming issuance of new crude oil quotas [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Low - sulfur: Monitor the impact of refinery device changes on supply. The winter power - generation demand has no driver yet, and focus on winter temperatures and natural gas in Europe and East Asia. The supply reduction in the Pan - Singapore region is less than expected [4]. - High - sulfur: The spot price is weak, and the fourth - quarter outlook is stable and bearish. Russian exports are slightly affected, and Mexican exports are rising. The feed demand for fuel oil is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Weak and volatile, not advisable to buy at low levels [5]. - Arbitrage: High - sulfur cracking fluctuates at a low level, and low - sulfur cracking is neutral [5]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: Energy facilities have recovered, and the overall refining capacity has increased. November exports increased by 17% month - on - month, and December exports are expected to rise [8][9]. - Mexico: Pemex's processing volume increased in October, and November exports were stable. High - sulfur supply is expected to decline marginally in the future [15]. - Middle East: Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil in 2026. November exports decreased slightly from the October high. Sanctions on Iran continue [17]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feed demand: New crude oil quotas are expected to be issued in November 2026, with a significant increase compared to the end of last year. Feed demand for fuel oil is expected to weaken [4]. - Marine fuel demand: Supported by the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships [26]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Pan - Singapore region: The expected excess supply is gradually decreasing as RFCC device operations increase [29]. - Nigeria: Supply is affected by the frequent changes in the Dangote refinery's maintenance time [32]. - Middle East: Device return times are all delayed, and the supply gap persists in the short term [35]. - Sudan: Energy facilities were attacked, and oil supply has recovered. Low - sulfur crude oil has been redirected to the Pan - Singapore region [38]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driver. Marine fuel demand is stable, and power - generation is less economical than natural gas [40]. 3.2.5 China's Low - Sulfur Market - The export quota for bonded low - sulfur fuel oil in the fourth quarter is tight. The production in October increased, with different trends among different refineries [45]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: The document provides price trends of Brent, HSFO380, LSFO, and their spreads with other products [49][50][53]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Include cross - region and cross - period spreads [56]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Include cross - region and cross - variety spreads [63]. - Natural gas - fuel oil ratio: Provides equivalent - calorific - value price data and changes [66]. - Cross - region freight: Shows freight trends between different regions [69]. - Singapore bunkering spreads: Presents spreads of HSFO and LSFO in Singapore [72]. - Fuel oil inventory: Covers inventory structures in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US [75]. - Northwest Europe inventory: Includes gasoline, diesel, and refined - oil inventories in ARA [82]. - US Gulf inventory: Covers gasoline, diesel, crude - oil, and Cushing crude - oil inventories in the US [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the base to consolidate [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-future: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is experiencing a slight rebound in spot prices and a bottoming process in the futures market. The current fundamental situation shows weak supply and demand. Although the downside space may be limited, a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, and the market is waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 8, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2602 was 2,955 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 195,139 lots, a decrease of 14,471 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 171,875 lots, an increase of 66,929 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,470 yuan/ton; South China, 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton [1] - Spot prices in North China, Shandong and South China rose slightly, while those in Sichuan and Chongqing fell. The overall supply and demand of asphalt remain weak, with potential for further decline in terminal demand due to cooling. Refineries with quotas have relatively good profits, but local supply competition is intense, suppressing spot prices. The lack of significant release of winter storage demand keeps market sentiment cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance and wait for the bottom to be consolidated [2] - Cross-variety: No strategy provided [2] - Cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - Spot-future: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.0815%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业出货28.06万吨，环 比增加7.06%,样本企业产量为50.2万吨，环比增加2.03%,样本企业装置检修量预估为82.6万吨，环 比减少4.61%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.9%，环比增加0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为9.2238%， ...

近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据12月8日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制， 自12月8日 24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨均降低55元。调整后，各省（区、市）和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格见附表。 中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供应，严格执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市 场监督检查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的行为，维护正常市场秩序。消费者可通过12315平台举报价格违法行为。 调整后，各省区市和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格 来源：国家发展和改革委员会网站、央视新闻 编审：李雪 | | 汽油(标准品) | 柴油(标准品) | | --- | --- | --- | | 实行一省一价的地区 | | | | 北京市 | 8520 | 7530 | | 天津市 | 8485 | 7495 | | 河北省 | 8485 | 7495 | | 山西省 | 8555 | 7550 | | 辽宁省 | 8485 | 7495 | | 吉林省 | 8485 | 7495 | | 黑龙江省 | ...

| E T 1 | 2 P | | --- | --- | | N | | | 1 | 1 90 1 | | D | | | 1 . | | | 2 | | 【沥青】 近期河北鑫海、温州中油、山东胜星等停产或转产渣油，克石化及辽河石化提产，整体供应微增。周度出货量 不足40万吨，环比减少3.4%，位于近四年同期低位水平。社会库环比小幅下滑，同比来看，自10月下旬出现由 减转增的拐点后同比增幅逐步扩大;炼厂库存环比小增，整体商业库存去化节奏明显放缓。BU走势承压。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月08日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 中国1-11月原油进口量同比增加3.2%。近期俄乌和平谈判维持僵局,关于基辅的安全保障及俄罗斯实控领土问 题 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Bohui Co., Ltd. (SZ 300839) held its 30th meeting of the fourth board of directors on December 8, 2025, to review the proposal for revising the "Working Rules of the Board of Directors Audit Committee" [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Bohui Co., Ltd. is as follows: self-produced refined petroleum products account for 99.16%, materials account for 0.57%, and trade accounts for 0.26% [1] - As of the time of reporting, the market capitalization of Bohui Co., Ltd. is 3.7 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from December 8, with a decrease of 55 yuan per ton for both fuels [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The average price comparison for the first ten working days before December 8 indicates a price drop, resulting in a new maximum retail price for gasoline and diesel across various provinces and cities [1]. - The new maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel in major cities include: Beijing (gasoline: 8520 yuan, diesel: 7530 yuan), Shanghai (gasoline: 8500 yuan, diesel: 7500 yuan), and Guangzhou (gasoline: 8565 yuan, diesel: 7565 yuan) [4]. Group 2: Market Regulation - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are required to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [1]. - Local authorities are tasked with increasing market supervision and strictly enforcing compliance with national price policies to maintain normal market order [1].

2025年12月8日国内成品油价格按机制调整 近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据12月8日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自12月8日24 时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨均降低55元。调整后，各省（区、市）和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格见附表。 中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供应，严格执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市 场监督检查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的行为，维护正常市场秩序。消费者可通过12315平台举报价格违法行为。 附：各省区市和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格 | 各省区市和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格 | | --- | | | | 单位:元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 汽油(标准品) | 柴油(标准品) | | 实行一省一价的地区 | | | | 北京市 | 8520 | 7530 | | 天津市 | 8485 | 7495 | | 河北省 | 8485 | 7495 | | 山西省 | 8555 | 7550 | | 辽宁省 | 8485 ...

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月08日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨， 减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。 上周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期 的最低位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不 大，里海管道联盟2号单点系泊严重受损，原油价格低位震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装 置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴 ...