Core Viewpoint - As of August 7, 317 Hong Kong-listed companies have forecasted their first-half performance, with 182 companies expecting profit growth or a turnaround, representing nearly 60% of the total [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The overall performance of Hong Kong companies in the first half of the year shows characteristics of "profit recovery and structural differentiation" [1] - Sectors such as securities and futures, information technology, and industrials have exhibited high profit growth rates [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Hong Kong companies are expected to maintain a high profit growth rate due to overall market recovery, commercialization of AI technology, and the global strategic advancement of leading enterprises [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 6, 2025, yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.229%, the UK at 4.525%. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly terms. Japan's yield was 3.715% with a one - year change of - 0.686%, and Brazil's was 6.438% with a one - year change of 0.054% [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 6, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.690%, the UK's was 3.816%. Changes also differed in short - term and long - term periods. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.720% [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies showed various changes. Against the Brazilian real, it had a one - year change of - 2.70%, and against the South African rand, it was - 3.69% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Different indices had different closing prices and changes. The Dow Jones closed at 6345.060 on August 6, 2025, with a one - month change of 16.13%. The Russian index data was not provided, and the Hang Seng Index had a one - month change of 44.51% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: On August 6, 2025, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3457.120, and the US high - yield credit bond index was 1717.511 [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share index closed at 3633.99 with a 0.45% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4113.49 with a 0.24% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.32, and the S&P 500 was 26.89 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year rate) was - 0.51 with a - 0.04% change [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest A - share fund flow was 139.51, and the CSI 300 was 3.78 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17340.68, and the CSI 300 was 3076.75 [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF was - 16.49 with a - 0.40% spread [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Treasury Futures**: The T00 closed at 108.555 with a 0.06% increase, and the TF00 closed at 105.775 with a 0.04% increase [6]. - **Funding Rates**: R001 was 1.3482% with a - 12.00 BP daily change, and R007 was 1.4732% with no daily change [6].

Group 1 - The China Securities Association has initiated a special survey on the implementation of standards in the securities and futures industry, focusing on the "last mile" of standard application [1] - The survey aims to understand the compliance status of published standards and identify challenges in their implementation, providing a basis for more effective standard promotion [1] - The number of effective clients in the futures market has reached a historical high of 2.61 million, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, global tablet shipments reached 39 million units, marking a 9% year-on-year increase [2] - The Chromebook market has seen significant growth, with shipments reaching 11 million units in the first half of 2025, driven by educational initiatives in Japan [2] Group 3 - A new state of matter called "quantum liquid crystal" has been discovered, which could lead to the development of advanced quantum magnetic sensors for extreme environments [3] Group 4 - Kweichow Moutai is set to release a limited edition commemorative liquor priced at approximately 7,000 yuan per bottle [4] - Taobao is launching a new membership system that integrates various Alibaba services, enhancing user benefits across shopping, food delivery, travel, and more [4] Group 5 - Tencent's AI platform ima has introduced new features, including the ability to upload files to generate AI podcasts [5] - Geely's autonomous driving teams are undergoing restructuring, with plans to consolidate resources into a new entity, though details are still being finalized [5] Group 6 - NetEase experienced significant disruptions in multiple games due to internal server issues, affecting player access [6] - Haidilao has denied rumors of transitioning to a semi-self-service model, labeling them as false [6] Group 7 - Beingmate has stated that it has not raised prices on its products, despite reports of price increases in the market [7] - Qiangna Technology is seeking to raise funds at a valuation exceeding $1.3 billion ahead of a potential IPO [7] Group 8 - Longfor Group has completed a bond redemption of approximately 950 million yuan, bringing its total bond redemptions for the year to over 10 billion yuan [7] Group 9 - Dajia Property Insurance has faced penalties exceeding 1 million yuan this year, with recent fines for providing unauthorized benefits to clients [7] Group 10 - Shanghai Construction has successfully issued 1.5 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a 7-year maturity and a 2.29% interest rate [8] - Shandong Haihua plans to invest 2.32 billion yuan to acquire a 29% stake in Zhongyan Alkali Industry [8] Group 11 - Nuwai Co. reported a net profit of 637 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.47% [9] - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical achieved a net profit of 526 million yuan in the same period, up 10.70% year-on-year [9] - Zhongchong Co. reported a net profit of 203 million yuan, marking a 42.56% increase compared to the previous year [9] Group 12 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.96%, reaching a new closing high for the year, with over 3,900 stocks gaining [10] - The market saw significant trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.6 trillion yuan [10]

建立健全投资者保护工作机制。以金融体制改革为契机，切实加强与贵州金融监管局监管协作，充分发 挥各自优势，在投资者教育、纠纷多元化解、投诉举报处理、适当性管理等方面强化合作。健全行政监 管与自律监管协同工作机制，投教投保投宣各有侧重，常态化做好投资者保护工作。建立投资者保护审 查机制，在风险化解、制度制定、监管执法、信访处理、纠纷化解等工作环节，加强投资者保护有效性 审查。把妥善处理投资者投诉举报作为衡量监管工作有效性的重要标准，坚持快查快办、依法处理，积 极回应投资者诉求，投诉举报办结率达100%。 严厉查处侵害投资者利益的违法违规行为。把保护投资者合法权益贯穿落实到日常监管、稽查执法、审 理处罚各环节，落实监管"长牙带刺"、有棱有角要求，建立健全财务造假综合惩防工作体系，严厉查处 侵害投资者合法权益的违法违规行为。2023年以来，对保利联合（002037）、天成控股、高鸿股份、贵 州百灵（002424）4家上市公司信息披露违法行为移交立案调查，其中2家已作出行政处罚，罚款1405万 元；对18家上市公司、12家挂牌公司信息披露问题和8家中介机构未勤勉尽责采取行政监管措施。 督促上市公司切实履行主体责任。以增 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]

凝聚各方合力做好投资者权益救济工作。推动建立中证资本市场法律服务中心贵州调解工作站、贵阳市 中级人民法院证券期货纠纷调解工作站、贵阳仲裁委员会证券期货纠纷仲裁调解中心、贵州资本市场纠 纷人民调解委员会,率先在全国实现证券期货纠纷调解组织"四牌合一"，辖区证券期货纠纷多元化解机 制更趋完善。2023年以来，辖区调解组织共受理调解纠纷52件，成功调解35件，其中1件为全国首例未 经审判即调解成功的证券虚假陈述民事赔偿纠纷案。强化司法与行政监管协同,与贵州高院联合发布 《关于全面协同推进资本市场纠纷多元化解的会议纪要》，建立健全示范判决引导的全链条群体性纠纷 化解机制，提升"示范判决﹢专业调解﹢平行案件处理"机制运行的规范化水平。 建立健全投资者保护工作机制。以金融体制改革为契机，切实加强与贵州金融监管局监管协作,充分发 挥各自优势，在投资者教育、纠纷多元化解、投诉举报处理、适当性管理等方面强化合作。健全行政监 管与自律监管协同工作机制,投教投保投宣各有侧重，常态化做好投资者保护工作。建立投资者保护审 查机制，在风险化解、制度制定、监管执法、信访处理、纠纷化解等工作环节，加强投资者保护有效性 审查。把妥善处理投资者 ...

Group 1 - The article reveals the driving mechanism of foreign capital behavior and the dollar liquidity cycle on the differentiation of value and growth styles in A-shares through a dual-factor model of cross-border capital flow and global liquidity [23] - Cross-border capital flow framework indicates that the expansion of interest rate differentials and the surplus in the current account attract foreign capital to allocate to fundamentally strong large-cap value stocks [23] - Global liquidity spillover driven by the Federal Reserve's easing policies significantly enhances the valuation elasticity of small-cap growth stocks by lowering financing costs and increasing risk appetite [23] Group 2 - Since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014 and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2016, foreign capital has continuously increased its allocation to A-shares, with the market value share significantly rising [6] - The top 300 stocks held through the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect include 222 from the CSI 300 index, 62 from the CSI 500 index, and 10 from the CSI 1000 index, indicating a strong preference for liquid and fundamentally sound stocks [6] - The relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices reflects the interaction between the money market and the capital market, showing a clear negative correlation overall [8] Group 3 - The current account surplus is the main source of the international balance of payments surplus, with merchandise trade being the primary driver, reflecting the relative changes in domestic and foreign demand [11] - When domestic interest rates rise relative to foreign rates, arbitrage capital flows into bonds and stocks, boosting the domestic currency and attracting more foreign capital into A-shares [13] - The dual-factor model effectively captures style-switching opportunities, with a strategy annualized return exceeding 10% [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year's H1 economic data remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. July's PMI data was below expectations, with both supply and demand sides declining. New export orders and high - frequency port data indicated a potential weakening of the front - loading export effect, and future exports may face pressure. - In terms of funds, the increase in government bond issuance and maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, as well as fluctuations in the stock and commodity markets, had an impact on capital flow. However, the central bank's supportive attitude towards funds is expected to maintain overall liquidity in the future. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term. However, the recent positive sentiment in the stock market has suppressed the bond market, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: H1 economic data was resilient under tariff influence. July's PMI was below expectations. Overseas, the FOMC meeting showed a marginally hawkish stance from the Fed, the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a US rate cut in September increased. There were also important domestic and international policy events such as the Politburo meeting, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the announcement of the national childcare subsidy system [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1633.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y Treasury yield was 1.71%, down 3.17BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield was 1.95%, down 3.70BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit conditions [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [19][22][25]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - GDP: In Q2 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. - Price Index: In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - Export: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In June, industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. - Investment and Real Estate Data: In June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and real estate - related data showed continued adjustment [43][49][52]. - **Foreign Economy**: - US: Q1 GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 0.3%. In June, CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000. - EU: Q1 GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 [70][73][79]. 4. Liquidity - In June, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and the social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. - In July, the MLF balance was 535 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection through reverse repurchases was 6.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [84][90]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The latest 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, with corresponding week - on - week changes of - 1.29BP, - 5.66BP, - 3.17BP, and - 3.70BP. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [93]. - **Exchange Rates**: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided, only relevant data charts were presented [101].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures on July 30, 2025. It presents the market performance, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, international trade negotiations, and seasonal demand changes. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares showed an intraday upward trend, with all major indices closing in the green. The technology sector led the rally, while high - dividend sectors declined. All four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indices. With the market approaching the mid - report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of corporate earnings. It is recommended to gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with an exercise price of 6000 on the 08 contract [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock market was strong, and there were expectations of incremental policies from the Politburo meeting, causing treasury bond futures to decline significantly. Long - term bonds were more strongly suppressed by policy expectations, while the loosening of funds supported short - term bonds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The 2509 - 2512 contract inter - period spread may tend to rise in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, precious metals are in a state of shock consolidation. The market will gradually return to the influence logic of the US economic fundamentals. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels during the correction and buy silver at low levels above $38. The inflow of institutional funds into ETFs provides short - term support for prices [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures - **EC**: The main contract is in a weak shock state. The current mainstream shipping companies have announced their August prices, and the uncertainty has decreased. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is in a narrow - range shock, waiting for macro driving factors. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the demand shows resilience in the short - term. The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories are all increasing. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [13][15][16]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to be tight, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is low, supporting the price in the short - term. However, the market is expected to be slightly oversupplied in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term, with the main contract expected to trade between 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The terminal consumption in the off - season is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full. The supply is expected to decline slightly in July, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The Sino - US trade negotiations have started, and the market is waiting for macro guidance. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is affected by the off - season and the rise in price. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [23][24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the tin price has fallen from a high level. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [27][28][29]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment has gradually been digested, and the nickel price is in a weak shock state. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable in the electroplating and alloy sectors but weak in the stainless steel and nickel sulfate sectors. It is expected to be in a range adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market is in a narrow - range shock, and the demand is still dragged down. The supply is slightly reduced, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a range operation, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end. The supply is relatively high in the short - term, and the demand is stable. The whole - link inventory is increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [35][36][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The expectation of production restrictions has affected the steel price to strengthen. The cost has increased, and the profit of steel mills has improved. The supply is expected to be affected by production restrictions, and the demand is seasonally stable. It is recommended to try long positions as the steel price has broken through the previous high [40][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price. The global shipment volume has increased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the high - level iron water production. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [42][45]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has fluctuated greatly, and the spot price has increased steadily. The supply is tight, and the demand is strong. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [46][50][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. The supply is difficult to increase due to corporate losses, and the demand is supported by the recovery of iron water production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The bottom of US soybeans is well - supported, but the supply - demand situation suppresses the meal price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is high in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a weak state, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term price is not optimistic. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the far - month contracts and pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of long - short balance, and the price is in a shock state. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect is slowing down. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent policy auctions [61][62]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is also in a bottom - shock state. The international market has no new driving factors, and the domestic supply - demand situation is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased view after a rebound [63]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range - shock in the short - term and under pressure after the new cotton is listed. The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the demand is weak [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment space of the bond market in the future may be limited. Although the recent positive sentiment in the commodity and stock markets has suppressed the bond market and triggered a certain redemption negative feedback, considering the weak recovery of domestic demand and the expected continued loosening of funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. In the medium - to long - term, the bond market should be considered for long - position entry at low levels [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: The economic data remains resilient under the influence of tariffs. The economic growth in the second quarter slightly exceeded expectations, with production outperforming demand. After the tariff relaxation, exports improved, but the sustainability of the "rush - to - export" effect remains to be seen. In June, the CPI rebounded year - on - year, while industrial product prices continued to face pressure. Overseas, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "big and beautiful" bill, which is beneficial for boosting the U.S. economic growth outlook, but the relaxation of fiscal discipline in some developed countries may lead to an increase in long - term bond yields and risk spill - over effects [10]. - **Foreign Investment**: Foreign investment in RMB assets has generally remained stable this year. The scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds has increased, with the total amount of foreign - held domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, reaching a historically high level. In the first half of the year, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing the net - reduction trend of the past two years, especially in May and June when the net - increase scale reached $18.8 billion [10]. - **Social Security Reform**: The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will steadily promote reforms such as the national overall planning of endowment insurance and the delay of the legal retirement age, and cooperate with relevant departments to implement policies and measures for individual pensions [10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to June, the national general public budget revenue was 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, national tax revenue was 9.2915 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 2.2651 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The national general public budget expenditure was 14.1271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [10]. - **Bond Fund Redemption**: As the bond market continued to adjust, bond funds faced another redemption wave. This week, funds sold a large amount of bonds, with a single - day selling scale approaching 100 billion yuan. Since July, more than 30 bond fund products have announced large - scale redemptions and increased the precision of share net value [10]. - **International News**: In the 27th Japanese Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. The Bank of Japan believes that the trade agreement with the U.S. will reduce uncertainties and expects to have enough data by the end of the year to weigh an interest rate hike [10]. - **Economic Data**: The U.S. durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month. The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, and the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2 [10]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF, and 100 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposits. With 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan in MLF, and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, the net investment was 10.95 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.65% [11]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.74%, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 BP; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.99%, a week - on - week increase of 9.15 BP. The latest 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 BP [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, considering the weak domestic demand recovery and the expected continued loosening of funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. However, the recent positive sentiment in the commodity and stock markets has suppressed the bond market. At the current position, the adjustment space of the bond market is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to enter the market at low levels. The recommended strategy is to go long at low levels with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months [11][13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, TS contracts as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL through multiple charts, but no specific analysis is provided [16][19][22][25][28][33]. 3.3. Main Economic Data 3.3.1. Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [42]. - **PMI Sub - items**: In June, both the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry improved, with the production side outperforming the demand side. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, and the new order index rose 0.4 percentage points to 50.2% [48]. - **Price Index**: In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% [51]. - **Exports and Imports**: In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.13% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 16.74% year - on - year [54]. - **Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 4.8% [57]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.8%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 7.5%. The month - on - month decrease in second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.6% [60]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In June, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 303.64 million square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.0%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.33321 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion data in June decreased by 2.16% year - on - year, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [63][66]. 3.3.2. Foreign Economy - **U.S. Economy**: In the first quarter, the annualized U.S. GDP at current prices was 2.9977 trillion dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.3%. In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. The U.S. durable goods orders in June increased by 10.93% year - on - year. The number of non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.0, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8 [69][72][75]. - **EU and Eurozone**: The EU's GDP in the first quarter increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, and the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2. The Eurozone's CPI in June increased by 2.0% year - on - year [75][78]. 3.4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In June, the M1 growth rate was 4.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.3%. The social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New RMB loans were nearly 2.24 trillion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [83]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In June, the growth rate of government bonds in social financing continued to rebound, and the financing of the real - sector improved. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.06%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 21.30% [86]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In June, the MLF balance was 5.15 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net investment through reverse repurchases was 120.11 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.52% [89]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The table shows the changes in various interest rates, including repo rates, Treasury bond yields, and U.S. Treasury bond yields. For example, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 7.07 BP week - on - week, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 BP week - on - week [93]. - **Interest Rate Charts**: The report presents the trends of Treasury bond yields, U.S. Treasury bond yields, and the yields of UK, French, German, and Italian Treasury bonds through multiple charts [95][98]. - **Exchange Rate Chart**: A chart shows the trends of the Fed's target interest rate and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [99].