期货研究报告 | 金融工程研究 本周宽基指数二八分化上行，双节前建议 降低权益敞口或对冲风险或布局做多波动 03 未来策略研判 率策略 （ 2025年09月22日-2025年09月26日） ——招期金工股票策略环境监控周报 ·研究员-卢星 ·联系电话：13120557519 ·luxing1@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0022829 2025年09月28日 目录 contents 权益市场回顾 01 策略环境监控 02 2 核心观点 | | | 从今年累计收益看，表现最好的三个指数是微盘股指数（+65.84%）、创业板指数（+47.16%）和科创50指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （+46.71%），而表现最弱的三个指数是中证红利（-2.27%）、上证指数（+14.21%）和沪深300（+15.63%）。 | | | 指数月度表现 | 展望后市，我们认为近期期权情绪维度显示中证1000，沪深300，中证500情绪上看跌，叠加机构出金等有可能 | | 总体情况 | | 预示市场有可能进一步调整，投资者短期需要做好风险应对。我们建议在仓位层面，股票多头策略整体 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Barra Style Factors - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture the performance of various style factors in the equity market, such as momentum, size, and residual volatility[12][27] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the returns of different style factors over a specified period. For example, the momentum factor return is calculated as: $$ \text{Momentum Factor Return} = \frac{\sum (\text{Stock Returns} \times \text{Momentum Scores})}{\sum \text{Momentum Scores}} $$ where the momentum scores are derived from the past performance of stocks[12][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the performance of different style factors, providing insights into market trends and investor behavior[12][27] 2. Model Name: Excess Return Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model monitors the relative performance of small and mid-cap indices against a large-cap benchmark to capture market style rotation signals[86] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the rolling 20-day excess returns of indices such as CSI 2000, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 relative to the CSI 300. For example: $$ \text{Excess Return} = \text{CSI 1000 Return} - \text{CSI 300 Return} $$ The model then tracks the percentile rank of these excess returns over a three-year period to identify significant deviations[86] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to detect market style rotations, aiding in strategic asset allocation decisions[86] Model Backtest Results - **Barra Style Factors**: - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly return 0.61%, monthly return 0.96%, annualized Sharpe ratio 2.20[12][27] - **Size Factor**: Weekly return 0.56%, monthly return 1.71%, annualized Sharpe ratio -1.78[12][27] - **Residual Volatility Factor**: Weekly return -0.48%, monthly return -0.77%, annualized Sharpe ratio -1.65[12][27] - **Excess Return Monitoring Model**: - **CSI 1000 vs. CSI 300**: 20-day rolling return -3.32%, 3-year percentile 17.0%[86] - **CSI 2000 vs. CSI 300**: 20-day rolling return -4.78%, 3-year percentile 15.1%[86] - **CSI 500 vs. CSI 300**: 20-day rolling return 1.21%, 3-year percentile 66.7%[86] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: The momentum factor captures the tendency of stocks that have performed well in the past to continue performing well in the future[12][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: The momentum score for each stock is calculated based on its past returns over a specified period, typically 12 months. The factor return is then computed as: $$ \text{Momentum Factor Return} = \frac{\sum (\text{Stock Returns} \times \text{Momentum Scores})}{\sum \text{Momentum Scores}} $$ where the momentum scores are derived from the past performance of stocks[12][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The momentum factor has shown consistent positive returns, indicating its effectiveness in capturing market trends[12][27] 2. Factor Name: Size - **Factor Construction Idea**: The size factor captures the performance difference between small-cap and large-cap stocks[12][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: The size score for each stock is calculated based on its market capitalization. The factor return is then computed as: $$ \text{Size Factor Return} = \frac{\sum (\text{Stock Returns} \times \text{Size Scores})}{\sum \text{Size Scores}} $$ where the size scores are derived from the market capitalization of stocks[12][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor has shown mixed performance, reflecting the varying investor preferences for small-cap versus large-cap stocks over time[12][27] Factor Backtest Results - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly return 0.61%, monthly return 0.96%, annualized Sharpe ratio 2.20[12][27] - **Size Factor**: Weekly return 0.56%, monthly return 1.71%, annualized Sharpe ratio -1.78[12][27] - **Residual Volatility Factor**: Weekly return -0.48%, monthly return -0.77%, annualized Sharpe ratio -1.65[12][27]

Group 1 - The Alpha momentum strategy outperformed the HS300 index with a cumulative increase of 2.23% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, resulting in an excess return of 0.85% [2][8] - The Alpha reversal strategy, however, underperformed the HS300 index, with a cumulative increase of only 0.55%, leading to an excess return of -0.83% [2][12] - The industry Alpha portfolio showed no excess return, with both the industry Alpha portfolio and HS300 index increasing by 0.56% during the same period [3][27] Group 2 - The report outlines market trend predictions based on the performance of Alpha momentum and reversal strategies, indicating that if both strategies outperform the index, the market is in a bull phase [4][20] - If neither strategy shows a clear advantage over the index, the market is considered to be in a bear phase or a transition from bull to bear [4][20] - The report suggests that the current market shows signs of upward momentum, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to fluctuate between 3790 and 3930 points in the upcoming week [5][22] Group 3 - The investment strategy involves selecting the top five industries based on Alpha values for momentum and the bottom five for reversal, with a one-month holding period for the constructed industry Alpha strategy [26] - The report emphasizes a rolling investment strategy, selecting stocks from the top-performing industries to form a portfolio of 30 stocks [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing focus on "fixed income +" funds, particularly those utilizing quantitative strategies to enhance returns amid a declining bond market and a stable stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The "fixed income +" funds are gaining attention from investors, with a notable shift towards quantitative strategies that aim to capture equity alpha [1]. - Wu Di, the General Manager of the Specific Strategy Investment Department at GF Fund, emphasizes the importance of a quantitative alpha strategy model to optimize stock selection and convertible bond allocation [1][3]. - The investment style of Wu Di is characterized by "stability" and "precision," focusing on small wins to achieve larger victories through meticulous management [2]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The fund "GF Xinhe" recorded a return of 13.50% in 2024, with a maximum drawdown of only 1.03%, showcasing strong performance in its category [2]. - Over the past year, "GF Xinhe" achieved an 8.11% return, and a 13.82% return over the past two years, ranking among the top in its peer group [2]. Group 3: Quantitative Integration - The integration of quantitative strategies into "fixed income +" funds is becoming a trend, with teams adding quantitative research personnel to enhance stock selection [3][4]. - The introduction of quantitative models allows for comprehensive coverage of market themes and the construction of cost-effective portfolios based on data analysis and factor modeling [3]. Group 4: Risk and Return Management - Balancing returns and drawdowns is a primary challenge in the mid-to-high volatility "fixed income +" strategy, with a focus on the speed of drawdown recovery and the relationship between returns and drawdowns [5]. - Wu Di's team emphasizes four optimization paths: strict credit risk control, maintaining high liquidity assets, diversified investments, and dynamic allocation of high cost-performance assets [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the deep integration of quantitative strategies with active management may become a significant trend in the industry, as market conditions continue to evolve [5]. - The company aims to further explore the synergy between quantitative methods and multi-asset strategies to enhance risk control and provide better investment experiences for clients [5].

Core Insights - GemW, an intelligent trading platform developed by CoinW, has launched a partner program aimed at strategy creators, KOLs, and professional traders, providing tools, exposure, and revenue sharing to help creators build personalized Alpha strategy dashboards and achieve systematic dissemination and monetization of their strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Partner Program Overview - The GemW partner program focuses on empowering early strategy creators and fostering a creator-driven trading ecosystem, offering tools and exposure opportunities along with an incentive mechanism to build active communities around quality strategies [5][6]. - Partners can earn performance-based rewards by publishing strategies and sharing expertise, assisting users in making quicker and more informed decisions in a volatile on-chain market [5][10]. Group 2: Features and Benefits - The platform provides a comprehensive solution for strategy creators, including tools for one-click following of quality strategies, real-time trading signals, and a secure trading environment backed by CoinW's infrastructure and MEV protection [4][6]. - Partners receive official certification, access to analytical tools, and a revenue-sharing model with up to 50% fee sharing, supporting real-time settlements and a dual reward system [5][6]. Group 3: Incentive Mechanisms - GemW offers targeted incentives for partners, such as a welcome reward of 10 USDT for each new user invited, and high-performing partners can receive activity toolkits valued up to 2,000 USDT for hosting trading challenges and invitation events [8][9]. - Custom growth support is available for top partners, including co-branding activities and full support from official resources, with upcoming features like real-time following data and automated reward systems to enhance partner influence and revenue [10][11]. Group 4: Future Developments - GemW plans to introduce several partner-exclusive tools, including real-time following updates, automated reward systems, strategy subscription features, and performance rankings to further assist creators in monetizing their influence and cultivating loyal communities [12][13]. - The platform aims to bridge the gap between ordinary users and professional traders, leading a comprehensive revolution in on-chain trading experiences [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "barbell strategy" of combining dividend stocks and small-cap stocks, which has gained popularity in recent years, but warns of its potential weaknesses as more investors adopt it [2][3]. Summary by Sections Barbell Strategy Overview - The barbell strategy consists of dividend assets and small-cap stocks, which have significantly outperformed in the past [2]. - A recent report by Lin Rongxiong from Guotou Securities suggests that the barbell strategy may become ineffective, drawing parallels with the four phases of the Japanese stock market [3][4]. Historical Performance Analysis - The basic barbell strategy, using the CSI Dividend Index and CSI 2000 Index with a 50% allocation each, has shown an excess return of approximately 2.5 percentage points since 2016, but has not consistently outperformed during bull markets [5][7]. - The enhanced version of the barbell strategy, which assumes a 5% excess return from small-cap stocks, has increased annualized excess returns to nearly 5 percentage points, yet still underperformed in certain years [8][11]. Dividend Strategy Insights - The CSI Dividend Index has a geometric average return of 6.86%, significantly better than the overall market, driven by a disciplined "reverse investment" mechanism that helps investors avoid emotional trading [22][23]. - The appeal of the dividend strategy lies in its ability to provide stable returns and act as a defensive measure during market downturns [38]. Small-Cap Strategy Insights - The small-cap factor has historically been viewed as a source of excess returns, but recent studies suggest that its performance may be more of a temporary anomaly rather than a consistent advantage [25][28]. - The true value of small-cap stocks lies in their potential for generating alpha through quantitative strategies, rather than relying solely on beta [33][37]. Conclusion - The barbell strategy is characterized as a balanced approach, with dividends providing stability and small-caps offering growth potential through alpha generation [38][39]. - Accepting the strategy's occasional underperformance is essential for long-term asset appreciation and maintaining a calm investment approach [39].

Group 1 - The A-share market in the first half of 2025 experienced a rebound despite facing mid-term tariff shocks, with significant trading volume and volatility providing a favorable environment for quantitative strategies [3][6][14] - The return of small-cap stocks has set the tone for quantitative strategy performance, with the ChiNext and CSI 2000 indices outperforming larger indices like the CSI 300 [6][10][18] - The overall A-share environment has been friendly to quantitative strategies, characterized by significant volatility and trading volume exceeding one trillion, which supports high-frequency trading strategies [14][15] Group 2 - Alpha products and managers performed well in the first half of 2025, with most long products achieving positive returns, particularly in quantitative stock selection [16][17] - The average return for quantitative stock selection products exceeded 12%, benefiting from the favorable small-cap market environment [17][19] - New quantitative strategies are emerging, with the CSI 2000 index showing strong performance due to its small-cap focus and lower competition compared to traditional indices [28][29] Group 3 - The risk associated with small-cap stocks needs close attention, as they have shown extreme trading heat and significant divergence from larger indices, indicating potential for a market correction [32][39] - The macroeconomic environment, policy support, liquidity conditions, and technological advancements are driving the performance of small-cap stocks, but caution is warranted due to high valuations and the presence of loss-making companies [34][36][37] - The correlation between quantitative products and small-cap stocks suggests that while there are benefits, there is also a need for careful risk management to avoid potential downturns similar to past market events [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - This week, major broad - based indices declined. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.04%, the CSI 2000 index dropped 1.09%, the STAR 50 index declined 1.11%, the CSI 500 index decreased 1.19%, the CSI All - Share index went down 1.21%, the SSE 50 index dropped 1.37%, and the ChiNext index fell 2.95%. The equity market as a whole oscillated downward, and the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" led to a decline in overseas risk assets. There is downward pressure on domestic risk assets next week. Dividend - related assets are expected to be relatively resilient in the short - term [8]. - For equity strategies, a cautious and defensive approach is maintained. The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is unfavorable for risk assets. Although the crowded trading risk in the TMT sector has been lifted, the current valuation is still high, and there is a significant risk of retracement in the short - term. There is also pressure on the liquidity premium of small - cap stocks to narrow. It is recommended to prevent retracement risks in small - cap and TMT sectors and track their valuation digestion process [8]. - For option strategies, a neutral attitude is held. Financial option strategies can be standard - allocated. In the face of event shocks, volatility is likely to remain high. Selling option strategies carry high risks, while buying option strategies and option arbitrage strategies have trading opportunities [9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Equity Market Review - **Stock Market Review**: Broad - based indices declined this week, with reduced volatility and decreased market activity. Large - cap stocks saw a decline in trading volume, and 32.3% of industries had positive returns, with the public utilities sector leading [8]. - **Futures Market Review**: As of April 3, 2025, from the perspective of quarterly - contract hedging, the basis of IF widened, while the bases of IC and IM converged. The estimated impacts on the average returns of neutral products from each contract's hedging were 0.01%, - 0.01%, and - 0.08% respectively [8]. - **Option Market Review**: As of April 3, 2025, the implied volatility of each index increased this week, which is beneficial for the performance of buying option strategies and option arbitrage strategies [8]. Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment**: Overall, this week, the intraday liquidity and volatility of stocks decreased marginally, and there was a net outflow of funds, which is unfavorable for the accumulation of intraday Alpha [8]. - **Trading Alpha Environment**: The cross - sectional volatility decreased marginally, large - cap stocks outperformed, and the balance of margin trading decreased marginally. There is a need to prevent the risk of retracement due to cooling market sentiment [8]. - **Holding Alpha Environment**: The environment is unfavorable for the accumulation and stability of holding Alpha [8]. - **Index Futures Hedging Environment**: Currently, the basis fluctuation has decreased, but the annualized discount is still significant, which is unfavorable for hedging cost control [8]. Future Strategy研判 - **Stock Strategy**: A cautious and defensive strategy is maintained. The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is unfavorable for risk assets. Although the crowded trading risk in the TMT sector has been lifted, the current high valuation still poses a significant risk of retracement in the short - term. There is also pressure on the liquidity premium of small - cap stocks to narrow. It is recommended to prevent retracement risks in small - cap and TMT sectors and track their valuation digestion process [8]. - **Option Strategy**: A neutral attitude is held. Financial option strategies can be standard - allocated. In the face of event shocks, volatility is likely to remain high. Selling option strategies carry high risks, while buying option strategies and option arbitrage strategies have trading opportunities [9].