Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology reported a revenue of 165 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year decline of 5% [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 11.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 29% compared to expectations of 2.48 billion yuan, primarily impacted by the new energy photovoltaic business [1] - For Q1 2025, TCL recorded a revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 13.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-over-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, a significant increase of 322% year-over-year [1] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - The display business achieved a revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an 18% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 329% year-over-year and 30% quarter-over-quarter [2] - The improvement in the display business was mainly driven by national subsidy policies, leading to a simultaneous increase in both volume and price of LCD panels [2] - The company maintained a strong position in the large-size panel market, ranking second globally, with the highest market share in 65-inch and 75-inch products, and an increase in the shipment proportion of 65-inch and above products to 58% [2] Group 2: Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company expects stable prices for large-size LCD panels despite a recent slowdown in customer orders, as production control measures will be implemented [2] - The company anticipates an acceleration in the expansion of mid-size IT and automotive businesses as the T9 production line reaches full capacity, which will further increase the revenue share from mid-size products [2] - The OLED business is expected to see continued improvement in profitability in Q2 2025 due to strong orders from high-quality clients and an increase in the shipment proportion of high-end OLED products [2] Group 3: Target Price and Ratings - The company maintains a target price of 5.80 yuan and a "buy" rating, with a 3% and 32% upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, respectively, to 6.84 billion yuan and 10.63 billion yuan [3] - The introduction of a profit forecast for 2027 is set at 13.73 billion yuan, with expected BPS of 3.20, 3.76, and 4.49 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - The target price is based on a 1.81x PB for 2025, reflecting a premium over the comparable company average of 0.86x, driven by an increase in global market share of LCD panel capacity [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that major Taiwanese semiconductor packaging and testing company ASE Technology Holding Co. and panel manufacturer AU Optronics are considering establishing manufacturing facilities in the United States to mitigate the impact of tariffs and enhance their competitive positioning in the market [1][2]. - ASE Technology's CFO indicated that the company is evaluating the opportunity to set up operations in the U.S. to support customer business development, although specific investment timelines and scales are not yet determined [1]. - AU Optronics is reportedly the first Taiwanese panel manufacturer to consider establishing a presence in the U.S., focusing on assembling modules or finished products rather than front-end panel manufacturing [1][2]. Group 2 - ASE Technology's direct shipments to the U.S. account for less than 10% of its electronic manufacturing services, and the company has not observed significant changes in customer order dynamics despite the tariff situation [2]. - The company expects a 9% to 10% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue for its packaging and testing business in the second quarter, with a projected gross margin increase of 1.4 to 1.8 percentage points [2]. - AU Optronics' revenue from direct and indirect sales to the U.S. is estimated to be around 10% to 15% [3].

Core Viewpoint - After years of patent disputes, leading companies in the panel (semiconductor display) industry, BOE and Samsung, may be approaching a reconciliation due to narrowing differences over advertising fees and potential collaboration opportunities in the LCD market [2][6][7]. Group 1: Patent Disputes and Market Dynamics - The patent litigation between Samsung and BOE has been ongoing for several years, with a notable deterioration in their relationship since 2022, primarily due to disputes over advertising fees and patent infringements [3][4]. - In 2021, BOE ranked second in the LCD market for Samsung's television screens, but the relationship soured in 2022 when BOE refused to pay the advertising fees demanded by Samsung, leading to a significant reduction in BOE's supply of LCD screens to Samsung [3][4]. - As of April 2023, Samsung Display initiated a new lawsuit against BOE in the U.S., marking the third legal action against BOE in two years, while BOE has also counter-sued Samsung for patent infringement [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Technological Advancements - The competition between BOE and Samsung in the OLED sector has intensified, with BOE's rapid development posing a significant challenge to Samsung's dominance in the OLED market [4][5]. - As of 2023, Samsung holds nearly 30,000 OLED-related patents, while BOE closely follows with approximately 28,000 patents, indicating a narrowing gap in technological capabilities [4][5]. - BOE has surpassed LG Display in the automotive OLED shipment volume and has successfully entered the supply chains of major smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, Huawei, and Apple [5]. Group 3: Potential Reconciliation and Future Collaboration - With major Korean panel manufacturers exiting the LCD market, Samsung and LG may become key customers for BOE's LCD products, prompting discussions of potential reconciliation [6][7]. - Samsung's strategy includes diversifying its LCD supply chain and improving its business relations in China, making reconciliation with BOE a priority [6][7]. - The upcoming discussions between BOE and Samsung are expected to address not only patent fee negotiations but also how to manage marketing costs associated with television sales, which could lead to a more collaborative relationship [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The panel industry has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with major companies like TCL Technology and BOE reporting significant revenue and profit growth, driven by demand for large-sized panels and favorable government policies [1][2][3]. Company Performance - TCL Technology reported Q1 2025 revenue of 40.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 322% [1]. - BOE achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10.27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.614 billion yuan, up 64.06% [1]. - Deepin Technology recorded Q1 revenue of 8.312 billion yuan, a 7.25% increase year-on-year, and turned a profit with a net profit of 96.41 million yuan [1]. Industry Trends - The panel industry experienced a "good start" in Q1 2025, with supply-side production adjustments and demand-side policies contributing to growth [1][2]. - The average utilization rate of the industry exceeded 80% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in production capacity [4]. - The trend towards larger panel sizes and the impact of government subsidies have driven demand growth, with main product prices performing better than in 2024 [2][3]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect a decline in terminal demand in Q2 2025 due to changes in the external trade environment, but companies are adapting through flexible production and capacity adjustments [1][4]. - The panel industry is shifting from competition based on scale and market share to a focus on high-margin applications, high-value products, and advanced technologies [7]. - TCL Technology and BOE are expanding their investments in OLED and MLED technologies, aiming to enhance their competitive edge and market presence [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The panel industry experienced a strong start in Q1 2023, but overall demand is expected to decline in Q2, leading companies to adopt a production-on-demand strategy to manage uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - TCL Technology reported a revenue of 104.3 billion yuan for 2024, a 25% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, improving by 62.4 billion yuan [4]. - BOE Technology's Q1 2025 revenue reached 50.599 billion yuan, a 10.27% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.614 billion yuan, up 64% [4]. - In 2024, BOE's revenue is projected to be 198.4 billion yuan, a 13.65% increase, with a net profit of 5.323 billion yuan, up 108.96% [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The panel industry saw a short-term surge in demand in Q1 2023, driven by tight supply and favorable policies, but is now facing a high-level decline in demand due to tariff policy disruptions and preemptive stockpiling [5]. - The demand for IT and mobile display panels remains strong, influenced by government subsidies and rising tariffs [5]. - The price of TV panels has slightly rebounded due to the tight supply-demand balance, but is expected to stabilize as production adjusts [8]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Investments - TCL Technology is increasing its stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Optoelectronics to 84.21% through a share issuance and cash payment totaling 11.562 billion yuan [6]. - BOE is exploring overseas market opportunities to mitigate the limited impact of tariffs on its exports to the U.S. [8]. - Both TCL and BOE are focusing on expanding their presence in emerging display technologies, including OLED and MLED [7]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The market share of major panel manufacturers, including BOE, TCL Huaxing, and Huike, is expected to rise to 66% in the global LCD panel supply market [7]. - The industry is anticipated to undergo consolidation, with BOE open to acquiring additional stakes to enhance competitiveness [9]. - Both companies have announced dividend plans, with BOE proposing a cash distribution of no less than 35% of its net profit and TCL planning to repurchase shares worth up to 800 million yuan [9].

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in holdings by major sovereign wealth funds, specifically the Norwegian Sovereign Fund and the Singapore Government Fund, raises concerns about the outlook for the panel industry and indicates a bearish sentiment towards the market [1][2]. Group 1: Norwegian Sovereign Fund - The Norwegian Sovereign Fund reduced its holdings in Innolux by approximately 31.9%, dropping from 11,735,166 shares to 7,279,581 shares, which decreased its ownership percentage from 1.29% to 0.88%, making it the eighth largest shareholder [1]. - The fund's decision to sell off shares is attributed to the downturn in the panel market following the pandemic, which led to Innolux's performance declining from its previous peak [1]. Group 2: Singapore Government Fund - The Singapore Government Fund decreased its holdings in Innolux by about 28.5%, from 91,746,766 shares to 57,281,07 shares, reducing its ownership percentage from 1.01% to 0.72%, thus becoming the tenth largest shareholder [2]. - Similar to the Norwegian fund, the Singapore Government Fund's reduction in holdings is linked to the negative shift in the panel market post-pandemic, impacting Innolux's financial performance [2]. Group 3: Other Shareholders - Other foreign institutional investors, such as Standard Chartered Bank, have also exited the top ten shareholders list, indicating a broader trend of reduced confidence in Innolux [2]. - Advanced Star Light Fund and Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund remain in the top ten shareholders, holding 1.31% and 1.2% respectively, suggesting some continued interest from specific investment vehicles [2].

2.毛利率及费用率：会计政策调整的影响 。本季度能看到公司的毛利率骤降，而销售费用单季度这算竟然为 "负数" ，这主要是公司对会计政策做了调整。 公司将 计提的保证类质保费用计入 "主营业务成本"，而不再计入 "销售费用"，这对本季度的数据影响大约在 21 亿元 。 如果不考虑该影响，公司本季度的毛利率将回升 至 15.7%， 而销售费用也将回到 8.6 亿元，相对符合公司的经营状况。受 2024 年年末面板价格有所降低的影响，毛利率环比也有所回落。 3.具体业务来看 ：显示器件和物联网创新业务是公司最大的收入来源，合计占比达到 95% 以上。其中 2024 年下半年显示器件业务同比增长 9.9%，主要受益于面 板出货量的增长；物联网创新业务同比下滑 22.4%，受经济面的需求扰动较大。 4.存货及价格变动 ： 京东方在 2024 年第四季度的存货减少至 233 亿元，环比下降 4.7%。 公司本季度存货/收入的比值继续下降至 0.43。随着存货状况的好转，面 板从 2024 年底开始价格再次上涨。而在面板涨价的带动下，公司在下季度的业绩仍将继续向好。 | | | | | Beijing Oriental E ...

集邦科技研究副总范博毓表示，由于整体需求回档，当下面板厂的态度比首季保守，也因此，4月电视 面板价格将由首季的涨价态势全面转为持平。 范博毓分析，4月电视面板需求开始修正，主要是品牌客户库存已增加到一定水位，加上川普政府的关 税措施后续仍充满不确定性，大多数品牌厂从4月开始下修订单，仅少数客户第2季增加面板需求。 集邦观察，主要电视品牌客户第2季采购量预估仅季增2%，较前一版本下修不少。考量近期电视面板报 价已从首季上扬格局转为平盘，随着需求走弱，后续报价走势承压，面板厂期望透过5月以产能调控策 略因应，借此让供需趋于稳定，以降低后续价格下跌风险。 面板市况急转直下，研调机构集邦科技（TrendForce）昨（21）日示警，电视需求本季起走弱，大多数 电视品牌本月下修订单，使得本季电视面板采购量恐仅季增2%，远不如预期。 展望后市，面板双虎同声认为美国关税政策是最大不确定性。群创董事长洪进扬坦言，关税议题确实让 客户们下急单抢拉货，但也可能导致下半年传统旺季需求受影响，面临"旺季不旺"压力。 法人指出，电视面板是目前面板业者最重要的出海口，随着电视品牌厂下修订单，将不利面板产业，群 创（3481）、友达（24 ...

【WitsView整理】 4月9日，友达、群创、彩晶、凌巨、铼宝、华凌6家台湾地区面板厂商公布 2025年3月营收，具体情况如下： 友达 友达光电公布2025年3月营收为新台币258.53亿元 （约人民币57.47亿元） ，同比增加21.93%。 2025年第一季度，公司营收约为721.02亿新台币（约人民币160.28亿元），同比增长21.23%。 | 项目 | 营业收入净额 | | --- | --- | | 本月 : | 25,852,917 | | 去年同期 : | 21,203,584 | | 增减金额: | 4,649,333 | | 增减百分比： | 21.93 | | 本年累计： | 72,101,871 | | 去年累计: | 59,477,331 | | 增减金额: | 12,624,540 | | 增减百分比： | 21.23 | | 备注/营收变化原因说明 : | | 群创 2025年第一季度，公司营收约为559.32亿新台币 （约人民币124.34亿元 ） ，同比增长10.77%。大 尺寸合并出货量共计2,508万片，较上季减少2.7%；中小尺寸合并出货量共计8,506万片，较上季增 ...

风险因素：政策执行力度不及预期；自然灾害导致农产品减产；粮食价格剧烈波动。 农林牧渔｜反制关税提振农产品价格，种植链直接受益 反制关税措施之下，农业种植产业链是稀缺的、直接受益的板块。第一，本轮关税风 暴再次凸显粮食安全的极端重要性。种源自主可控，已成为保障国家粮食安全的重中 之重。种业和粮食种植板块或将再受政策强力支持。第二，农产品价格或有提振，直 接带来种业、种植公司业绩增长预期；农产品加工板块预计也将出现结构性机会。 风险因素：关税政策再次调整风险；农产品价格超预期波动风险；产业支持政策不及 预期风险。 盛夏｜中信证券 农林牧渔和食品饮料行业首席分析师 S1010516110001 农林牧渔｜聚焦粮食安全与科技创新，夯实农业强国根基 规划文件定位为未来十年中央农村工作的顶层设计文件，是中长期农业产业政策的重 要风向标。规划聚焦粮食安全与科技创新，强调筑牢农业强国的物质基础与科技根 基。粮食安全方面，强调耕地保护与产能提升双管齐下。科技创新方面，种业被定位 为农业科技创新的重中之重，将成为发展农业新质生产力的主要方向。规划为种业、 粮食种植等板块提供了中长期政策红利和政策确定性。推荐种子和粮食种植板块。另 ...