板块周涨跌情况： 过去5个交易日，上证指数涨跌幅为+1.40%，深证成指涨跌幅为+1.25%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为+1.54%，创业 板指涨跌幅为+1.50%。中信交通运输板块涨跌幅为-0.3%，涨跌幅位居所有板块第27位。过去5个交易日，交 通运输行业子板块以上涨为主。涨跌幅前三位的子板块为：航运（+1.91%），港口（+0.83%），公路 （+0.70%）。涨跌幅后三位的子板块为：航空（-2.74%），快递（-1.37%），铁路（-0.93%）。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘政治事件扰动剧烈，25H1油运运价宽幅震荡 2025H1，地缘政治事件扰动运价，1月美国对俄油轮实施大规模制裁，造成短期运价跳涨，而制裁带来的原油 合规运输需求提升使25Q1运价维持高位运行。Q2以来全球原油需求预 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) is nearing completion, with significant achievements in China's economic and social development over the past five years [1][2] - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with an increase of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta region [1][3] - The average economic growth rate over the past four years has been 5.5%, which is unprecedented for an economy of China's size [1][3] Economic Indicators - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 20 key economic and social development indicators, including GDP growth, labor productivity, urbanization rate, and R&D expenditure growth [2][3] - Specific targets include increasing the average education years of the labor force from 10.8 years in 2020 to 11.3 years by 2025 [3] - The digital economy's core industry value added is expected to reach 10.4% of GDP by 2024, surpassing the 10% target set for 2025 [3] Major Projects and Achievements - A total of 102 major projects have been initiated under the "14th Five-Year Plan," covering areas such as technology, transportation, and energy [4][5] - Significant infrastructure projects include high-speed railways and major airports, with notable achievements in scientific research and technology [5] - The plan has also led to the construction of approximately 780,000 affordable housing units, addressing housing issues for over 20 million people [6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand has been a major driver of economic growth, contributing 86.4% to the average growth rate, with consumption accounting for 56.2% [6] - The past four years have seen a continuous expansion in market consumption, particularly in technology-driven products and services [6] Innovation and R&D - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has emphasized technological innovation, with R&D expenditure expected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024, nearing OECD levels [7][8] - The number of innovative drugs in development has reached over 4,000, representing about 30% of the global total [8] Market Reforms - The government has reduced the market access negative list from 151 to 106 items, promoting fair competition and optimizing industrial layout [9] - Significant reforms in the energy sector have led to a market-oriented electricity trading system, with market transactions accounting for 63% of total electricity consumption by 2024 [9][10]

新华社北京7月9日电 第十二届世界高速铁路大会正在北京举行。在与大会同期举办的中国国际现代化 铁路技术装备展上，众多铁路"黑科技"集中亮相。 这里有"全球最快高铁列车"CR450动车组，有最高时速达600公里的超导电动高速磁浮样车，还有世界 首台双结构式硬岩掘进机"雪域先锋号"。展出的，不仅是飞驰的速度，更是创新的未来。 "全球最快高铁列车"，刷新高铁运营"速度线" 国家铁道试验中心展区，两列线条流畅、科技感十足的动车组列车引人瞩目。它们就是"全球最快高铁 列车"——CR450AF动车组和CR450BF动车组。 "CR450动车组标志着中国高铁科技实现了又一次里程碑式的跨越，持续巩固扩大我国高铁技术世界领 跑优势。"中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司首席研究员赵红卫表示。 去年12月，时速400公里CR450动车组样车正式发布。随后，动车组样车先后在国家铁道试验中心完成 220公里以下时速试验，并在渝厦高铁重庆东至黔江段跑出400公里时速，在沿江高铁武宜段更是跑出了 时速450公里的"超级时速"。 "运行试验证明，CR450动车组速度、能耗、噪声、制动距离等各项运行指标均达到设计预期。"参与 CR450BF动车组 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed varied performance, with the liquor sector rising throughout the day while the semiconductor sector experienced a decline in the afternoon [1] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance had market capitalizations of CNY 376.78 billion, CNY 356.91 billion, and CNY 1,017.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.75 billion, CNY 2.22 billion, and CNY 0.84 billion [3] - The stock prices changed as follows: China Life Insurance decreased by CNY 0.73 (-1.93%), China Pacific Insurance decreased by CNY 0.55 (-0.97%), and Ping An Insurance decreased by CNY 0.14 (-1.62%) [3] Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of CNY 1,782.39 billion, CNY 217.50 billion, and CNY 472.00 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.95 billion, CNY 2.00 billion, and CNY 2.48 billion [3] - Stock price changes included Kweichow Moutai increasing by CNY 2.38 (+1.35%), Shanxi Fenjiu increasing by CNY 0.82 (+0.68%), and Wuliangye increasing by CNY 2.77 (+0.20%) [3] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon had market capitalizations of CNY 238.96 billion, CNY 223.82 billion, and CNY 314.69 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.47 billion, CNY 1.23 billion, and CNY 2.64 billion [3] - The stock prices changed as follows: Northern Huachuang decreased by CNY 7.77 (-1.43%), Cambricon Technologies decreased by CNY 1.51 (-1.10%), and Hygon decreased by CNY 2.82 (-0.84%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 187.27 billion, CNY 1,790.16 billion, and CNY 280.83 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.97 billion, CNY 0.31 billion, and CNY 0.56 billion [3] - Stock price changes included BYD decreasing by CNY 1.08 (-0.33%), Great Wall Motors decreasing by CNY 0.08 (-0.36%), and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway increasing by CNY 0.03 (+0.53%) [3] Shipping and Oil Sector - COSCO Shipping Holdings, Sinopec, and PetroChina had market capitalizations of CNY 235.91 billion, CNY 688.67 billion, and CNY 1,570.32 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.77 billion, CNY 1.08 billion, and CNY 0.76 billion [3] - The stock prices changed as follows: COSCO Shipping Holdings remained unchanged, Sinopec decreased by CNY 0.09 (-0.59%), and PetroChina increased by CNY 0.01 (+0.12%) [3] Coal and Battery Sector - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and CATL had market capitalizations of CNY 185.95 billion, CNY 745.07 billion, and CNY 1,234.66 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.79 billion, CNY 0.69 billion, and CNY 7.95 billion [3] - Stock price changes included China Shenhua increasing by CNY 7.49 (+2.84%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry decreasing by CNY 0.22 (-0.58%), and CATL increasing by CNY 0.03 (+0.16%) [3] Other Sectors - Various sectors such as food and beverage, electronics, and pharmaceuticals showed mixed performance in terms of market capitalization and stock price changes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 12306 system is continuously optimizing its infrastructure and expanding resources to effectively handle peak ticket purchasing demands during holidays and major travel seasons [1] Group 1 - The demand for travel during holidays is concentrated and continues to increase [1] - The 12306 system is enhancing its processing capabilities to cope with peak traffic during events like Spring Festival, May Day, and National Day [1] - The efforts include ongoing system optimization and resource expansion [1]

Core Insights - The first cross-Caspian international freight train from Shanxi, China, carrying 106.26 tons of photovoltaic components, has successfully departed for Baku, Azerbaijan, marking a significant step in trade cooperation between Shanxi and Europe/Central Asia [1] Group 1: Trade and Logistics - The freight train consists of 50 carriages and utilizes an "iron-sea combined transport" model, covering a total distance of 6,915 kilometers by land and sea [1] - The journey includes crossing the Horgos port in Xinjiang, traversing Kazakhstan, reaching the Caspian Sea's eastern shore at Aktau port, and then transferring to a ferry to cross the Caspian Sea to Baku [1] - This new route reduces the overall travel time by approximately 10 days compared to traditional methods, with the entire trip taking about 20 days [1]

Financial Sector - The banking sector showed a general upward trend with notable performances from major banks such as China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance, with market capitalizations of 380.77 billion and 1,023.96 billion respectively [4] - China Life Insurance experienced a slight decline of 0.29% while Ping An Insurance decreased by 0.58% [4] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector displayed mixed results, with North Huachuang's market capitalization at 241.30 billion and a decrease of 0.32% [4] - Cambrian's stock price increased slightly by 0.13%, while Haiguang Information saw a decline of 0.49% [4] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector, led by BYD with a market capitalization of 1,790.49 billion, experienced a minor decline of 0.31% [4] - Great Wall Motors and China Railway High-speed also showed slight increases of 0.41% and 1.05% respectively [4] Energy Sector - In the energy sector, China Petroleum and China Petrochemical had market capitalizations of 1,588.62 billion and 693.52 billion respectively, with China Petroleum increasing by 1.28% [4] - China Shipping Development remained stable with no change [4] Coal Industry - The coal industry saw Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua with market capitalizations of 750.83 billion and 185.66 billion respectively [4] - China Shenhua's stock price increased by 4.03% while Shaanxi Coal remained unchanged [4] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector included major players like Haitian Flavor Industry with a market capitalization of 228.10 billion, which increased by 0.46% [5] - Other companies in this sector showed stable performances with minor fluctuations [5] Electronics and Pharmaceuticals - The electronics sector, represented by Hon Hai Precision Industry, had a market capitalization of 365.78 billion and a slight increase of 0.34% [5] - In pharmaceuticals, Hengrui Medicine's market capitalization was 529.06 billion, with a notable increase of 0.99% [5] Logistics and Medical Devices - The logistics sector, led by SF Holding, had a market capitalization of 2,415.92 billion, experiencing a decline of 0.88% [5] - In medical devices, Mindray Medical's market capitalization was 172.94 billion, with a minor decrease of 0.02% [5] Metals and Construction - The non-ferrous metals sector included Zijin Mining with a market capitalization of 247.51 billion, which saw a decline of 3.38% [5] - China State Construction had a market capitalization of 1,700.78 billion, with a slight increase of 0.67% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]

Group 1 - The 17th China International Modern Railway Technology Equipment Exhibition commenced on July 8 in Beijing [1] - The CR450 model, a new addition to the Fuxing family, has achieved a test speed of 450 km/h, providing a 10% margin for future operations at 400 km/h while maintaining standards for braking distance, noise, and energy consumption at 350 km/h [5] - The "Snow Domain Pioneer," China's first high-altitude, cold-weather, large-diameter hard rock tunneling machine, features advanced geological forecasting capabilities, allowing for real-time detection of adverse geological conditions up to 100 meters ahead without stopping [8] Group 2 - The world's largest tower crane model can lift materials weighing 600 tons to a height of 92.5 meters and has set 10 world records, currently utilized in major railway bridge construction projects [10] - The exhibition features 521 companies from 14 countries and regions, including major international players like Siemens, Alstom, and Westinghouse, showcasing the latest technological advancements in the railway equipment manufacturing sector [12]

Core Points - The successful restoration of power supply for four 110kV lines, including the 110kV Zhuangtang Line, marks a significant milestone in the construction of the Weishui High-speed Railway to Qingdao connection line [1][3] - The completion of the power line relocation facilitates the construction of continuous beams and other related works, accelerating the overall project timeline [1][5] Group 1 - The 110kV Zhuangtang Line, Zhuangjiang Line, Zhuangjiao Line, and Zhuangwang Line required simultaneous power outages for relocation, presenting significant coordination challenges [3] - The project team, including China Railway 10th Bureau, optimized construction plans and efficiently completed the tasks within 7 days, including the erection of 10 new towers and the installation of 32,800 meters of wire [3] - The 220kV Langkai Line and Island Lang II Line, as critical backbone lines, were also relocated to facilitate bridge construction, completing tasks in 10 days [5] Group 2 - The Weishui High-speed Railway to Qingdao connection line spans 108.78 kilometers with a design speed of 350 km/h, featuring four stations [5] - This connection line is part of the national "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed rail network, enhancing the rapid transit capabilities between Qingdao and other regions [5]