Core Viewpoint - US stock market experienced a slight increase, supported by gains in financial stocks, but overall gains were limited due to a decline in software stocks [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 32.26 points, or 0.07%, closing at 49,533.19 points; the Nasdaq increased by 31.71 points, or 0.14%, to 22,578.38 points; and the S&P 500 gained 7.05 points, or 0.10%, ending at 6,843.22 points [3][12]. - Financial stocks such as Citigroup and JPMorgan saw increases, with Citigroup up 2.7% and JPMorgan up 1.7% [3][12]. - Software stocks faced significant declines, with ServiceNow down over 1% (31% year-to-date), Autodesk and Palo Alto Networks down approximately 2% (23% and 11% year-to-date respectively), and Salesforce and Oracle down about 3% (30% and 20% year-to-date respectively) [3][12]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Trends - Concerns over artificial intelligence potentially replacing specific software providers have negatively impacted the software industry [5][12]. - A recent Bank of America fund manager survey indicated that the level of stock accumulation has triggered a contrarian sell signal, with the stock overweight ratio reaching its highest level since December 2024 [6][13]. - The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator currently reads 8.2, signaling a "sell" recommendation, suggesting that high market optimism may indicate overvaluation of stocks [6][13]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones both experienced declines over the past week, with the S&P 500 down over 1% and the Nasdaq down over 2% [7][14]. - Concerns regarding AI disruption have overshadowed recent consumer price index (CPI) data, which was milder than expected [7][15]. - Investors are awaiting further information on inflation trends, with a personal consumption expenditures report due soon [7][15]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials are assessing the potential impact of AI on economic growth and productivity, which is crucial for achieving growth without increasing inflation [9][17]. - Fed officials suggest maintaining stable interest rates until more evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target is observed [9][17].

软件行业受到打击，原因是市场担忧人工智能工具可能取代特定行业软件提供商。 来源：环球市场播报 北京时间2月18日凌晨，美股周二尾盘走高。受金融股涨幅支撑，主要股指在上周下挫后重新站稳脚 跟。但软件股普遍下跌。 道指涨89.24点，涨幅为0.18%，报49590.17点；纳指涨82.10点，涨幅为0.36%，报22628.77点；标普500 指数涨19.31点，涨幅为0.28%，报6855.48点。 投资者从今年已遭重创的软件股撤出，转而买入花旗集团和摩根大通等金融股。花旗股价跳涨近3%， 摩根大通股价上涨超过1%。 然而，ServiceNow股价下跌超过1%，2026年迄今跌幅约为31%。Autodesk和Palo Alto Networks下跌约 2%。前者今年跌幅达23%，后者下跌11%。Salesforce和Oracle股价下跌约3%，年内跌幅分别为30%和 20%。 iShares扩展科技软件行业ETF（IGV）交易下跌超过2%，年内亏损达23%。 Concurrent Investment Advisors首席投资策略师Leah Bennett在接受采访时表示："我们只需要时间来看看 这些公司的盈利 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a "V" shaped recovery after initial declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 300 points and the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 1.2% at one point [2][3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a key indicator for chip manufacturers, saw a decline of over 2% [6] - Software stock index ETFs plummeted by 3% [9] - Despite the overall downturn, the declines in tech stocks have moderated [12] AI Impact on Market Sentiment - The recent turmoil in the market reflects two conflicting fears regarding AI: one is the concern that AI could drastically disrupt various economic sectors, leading investors to sell stocks perceived to have any risk of being replaced; the other is skepticism about whether the billions invested in AI will yield significant returns in the short term [12][14] - Analysts noted that mentions of "AI disruption" in corporate earnings calls nearly doubled compared to the previous quarter, indicating heightened awareness and concern among management teams [14] Economic Data and Market Trends - Morgan Stanley's Chris Larkin indicated that the ongoing rotation in tech stocks and fears of AI disruption overshadowed recent employment and inflation data, suggesting that unless upcoming economic data presents a significant surprise, the current market trend may continue [15] - The market remains close to historical highs, but the volatility from sell-offs could disrupt upward trends, posing challenges for investors [15] Commodity Market Reactions - Oil prices experienced a sharp decline following indications of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Tehran and reduce geopolitical risk in the Middle East [17] - Silver prices fell over 4% and gold prices dropped more than 2%, as market anxiety eased with the potential for avoiding conflict with Iran [17]

888、666、188……专属炒股靓号来了！新年定制福利，开启马年投资好运>> 随着投资者重新评估人工智能领域的赢家和输家，一场规模超过2万亿美元的软件股市值调整正在进行 中，以英伟达 （NVDA） 为首的风向标公司成为讨论的焦点。部分策略师认为，这对选股者而言存在 选择性机会。 888、666、188……专属炒股靓号来了！新年定制福利，开启马年投资好运>> 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着投资者重新评估人工智能领域的赢家和输家，一场规模超过2万亿美元的软件股市值调整正在进行 中，以英伟达 （NVDA） 为首的风向标公司成为讨论的焦点。部分策略师认为，这对选股者而言存在 选择性机会。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

近期不少投资者被AI搅得心慌，一会儿怕软件股被颠覆，一会儿又想追风口。但机构研报给出了明确信号：高盛指出过去三个月软件 类股两年期前瞻性盈利预期已上调5%，即便处于AI担忧核心的板块，2026年每股盈利预期仍在上修，且四季度业绩实现两位数增长； Wedbush分析师也直言，当下对软件股的悲观情绪并不理智，AI的真实应用正加速落地。 但现实中，多数投资者炒股全靠感觉：看形态就抄底，见调整就离场，常常踩空或被套。其实，行情的核心是交易意愿，尤其是机构 的交易活跃程度——用量化大数据还原真实交易状态，就能跳出"靠感觉"的误区，辨清行情虚实。 一、靠走势判高低，全是马后炮 同样，量化数据显示，除了首次反弹有机构交易活跃信号，后续所有反弹都没有相关数据，机构交易活跃度未显现，反弹不具备持续 性，盲目入场只会陷入被动。二、上涨遇波动，别慌看数据 上涨途中的波动最磨人，尤其是大阴线出现，很多人会忍不住离场，错失后续行情。 但判断波动要不要慌，关键看机构的交易状态。 只要机构交易活跃度未下降，波动只是短期整理，行情仍有延续性。 看图3： 多数人炒股总在找高低点，看双底就觉得是入场时机，见跌多了就想捡漏，结果往往陷入被动。 这 ...

北京时间2月17日晚，美股周二早盘走低，主要股指延续了上周的下跌趋势。此前遭受重挫的软件股继 续走低。黄金白银普遍下跌。 道指跌140.68点，跌幅为0.28%，报49360.25点；纳指跌257.60点，跌幅为1.14%，报22289.07点；标普 500指数跌47.09点，跌幅为0.69%，报6789.08点。 周一美股因总统日休市。 周二衡量市场恐慌程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）升至20以上，最高触及22.50。上周交 易时段开始时，该指数还在17点左右徘徊。 周二美股开盘后，Meta Platforms、英伟达、Palantir、美光科技及闪迪等今年迄今表现强劲股票普遍下 跌。 由于担心人工智能工具可能取代特定行业的软件供应商，软件板块正遭受冲击。欧特克和赛富时继续下 滑。 由于市场对人工智能颠覆性影响的担忧冲击了软件、房地产、卡车运输和金融服务等行业，标普500指 数刚刚经历了连续第二周的下跌。标普500指数和蓝筹股道指上周均下跌超过1%，而以科技股为主的纳 斯达克综合指数跌幅超过2%。 摩根士丹利市场研究与策略财富管理团队主管Daniel Skelly表示："市场对AI颠覆的担忧情绪再 ...

最近不少人在聊，海外知名百亿级基金经理大幅调整持仓，清仓多数应用软件标的，转而重仓半导体、基础设施软件等领 域，还提醒投资者这类软件股面临AI带来的行业重构压力。很多人看到新闻，要么跟风看空，要么纠结要不要抄底，但其实 新闻只是市场波动的诱因，真正决定标的运行轨迹的，是参与交易的大资金的真实行为。与其跟着单一新闻观点走，不如用 量化大数据从资金、行为、概率等多个维度拆解市场，跳出单一信息的局限，看清背后的真实逻辑。 一、跳出单一维度，锚定核心变量 有时候标的会进入长时间的横盘状态，仅从价格维度看，很难判断后续走向，毕竟所谓的高位低位都是事后才能明确的。很 多人在横盘时会犹豫不决，不知道该等待还是离场，陷入两难的境地。但从量化大数据的维度看，就能透过横盘的表象，看 清大资金的真实态度。 绝大多数人选标的时，总绕不开热点、业绩、价格这几个单一标准，但实际市场里，看似亮眼的业绩未必能带来理想表现， 持续低迷的领域反而可能有超出预期的运行。这是因为这些都是表象，真正影响标的运行的核心，是参与交易的大资金的交 易特征。就像有的标的走势反复波动，几次调整后都能出现回升，很容易让人放松警惕，结果后续出现大幅调整，陷入被 动 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures declined amid light trading as investors returned from the Presidents' Day holiday, entering a week with reduced trading hours [1][7] - Concerns over ongoing AI spending and competitive pressures continue to weigh on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which saw futures drop by 0.7% [1][9] - European markets opened quietly, with most blue-chip indices rising, including the FTSE 100, which increased by 0.4% [2][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar rose to an 11-day high against a basket of currencies, supported by risk-averse capital flows as traders returned from the holiday [3][9] - Gold prices fell below $5,000 per ounce, with New York gold futures down by 2.2% to $4,937.40 [6][12] - Oil prices declined ahead of direct talks between the US and Iran, with Brent crude down by 0.9% to $68 per barrel [5][11] Economic Data and Expectations - Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, including the ADP employment data and inflation figures from the US and Japan, to be released later in the week [1][5] - The market anticipates the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and fourth-quarter economic growth data, which may provide insights into future interest rate cuts [3][9] Stock Performance - The Nasdaq index futures fell by 0.6% in pre-market trading, with most of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks declining, except for Amazon, which rose by 0.2% [1][7] - The Nikkei index closed down 0.2%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, with SoftBank shares dropping by 5.1% [2][7]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ Polar Capital基金经理Nick Evans在软件股被抛售前提前离场，他提醒那些想"抄底"的投资 者：多数软件股仍然充满风险，只有少数公司能够存活下来。 "我们认为，应用软件正面临来自人工智能生存性威胁（existential threat）。"Evans管理 的一只规模120亿美元的全球科技基金，过去一年业绩击败99%的同业，过去五年跑赢了 97%同行。 近期，市场担心Anthropic推出的Claude Cowork等先进AI工具将颠覆软件行业的商业模式， 相关股票大幅下跌。iShares扩展科技软件行业ETF（IGV）年内已累跌21.53%，半导体股却 因算力需求而大涨。 Evans认为，用于撰写文档、管理薪资等任务的"应用软件"风险尤为突出。除了持有少量微软 和部分看涨期权外，他已清仓该板块其他所有股票，包括SAP、ServiceNow、Adobe和 HubSpot。 "我们不会再买这些公司了，"Evans称，AI编程工具的能力已经强大到可以复制并修改大量现 有软件。这意味着，老牌软件公司如今不仅要面 ...

来源：智通财经 Polar Capital基金经理Nick Evans在软件股被抛售前提前离场，他提醒那些想"抄底"的投资者：多数软件 股仍然充满风险，只有少数公司能够存活下来。 "我们认为，应用软件正面临来自人工智能生存性威胁（existential threat）。"Evans管理的一只规模120 亿美元的全球科技基金，过去一年业绩击败99%的同业，过去五年跑赢了97%同行。 近期，市场担心Anthropic推出的Claude Cowork等先进AI工具将颠覆软件行业的商业模式，相关股票大 幅下跌。iShares扩展科技软件行业ETF（IGV）年内已累跌21.53%，半导体股却因算力需求而大涨。 此外，为了提振增长而收购AI初创公司，也会进一步加重财务负担。"我们认为，当前股价并未反映最 终价值的不确定性，也没有计入自由现金流面临的压力。" 当下，华尔街对于AI规模的争论仍在持续。摩根大通的策略师上周表示，近期的"极端价格波动"之后， 软件股可能反弹，他们更看好微软和ServiceNow。 Evans也称，并非所有软件领域都同样脆弱。今年1月，他增持了基础设施软件公司——这些企业为消费 者和企业应用提供底 ...