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9月非农数据点评:迟来的指引,摇摆的降息
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 11:04
Employment Data Overview - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August[2] - The combined job additions for July and August were revised down by 33,000[5] Sector Performance - The private sector contributed 97,000 jobs, with notable gains in education and healthcare (59,000 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (47,000 jobs)[11] - Manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors continued to decline, with losses of 6,000, 3,000, and 25,300 jobs respectively[12] - The construction sector showed improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, reversing previous declines[12] Wage and Inflation Insights - Average hourly earnings in the service sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.0% increase[24] - Overall wage growth lacks significant upward momentum, indicating limited inflationary pressure from wages[24] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September non-farm data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, influencing interest rate decisions[4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though internal divisions within the Fed complicate the decision[26] - The recent data, while positive, may not be sufficient to shift the Fed's stance decisively towards rate cuts[26]
如何订立集体合同?
蓝色柳林财税室· 2025-11-24 09:17
Group 1 - The article discusses the establishment of labor relations between employers and employees from the day of employment, emphasizing the importance of collective contracts in defining labor conditions and rights [3] - Collective contracts can be negotiated between employees and employers regarding wages, working hours, rest periods, labor safety, and welfare benefits, and must be submitted for discussion and approval by employee representatives [3] - In the absence of a union, representatives elected by employees, guided by higher-level unions, can negotiate collective contracts with employers [3] Group 2 - After a collective contract is established, it must be submitted to the labor administrative department, which has 15 days to raise any objections; if no objections are made, the contract becomes effective [4] - Legally established collective contracts are binding for both employers and employees, with industry and regional contracts being enforceable within their respective areas [4] Group 3 - The standards for labor remuneration and conditions in collective contracts must not be lower than the minimum standards set by local governments, and individual labor contracts must meet or exceed the standards set in collective contracts [5] Group 4 - If an employer violates a collective contract and infringes on employee rights, the union can demand accountability from the employer; disputes arising from the execution of the contract can be resolved through negotiation, arbitration, or litigation [6]
爱沙尼亚2025年10月工业生产者价格同比上涨0.6%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-21 15:21
Group 1: Industrial Producer Price Index - In October 2025, Estonia's industrial producer price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year price increase of 3.5%, while manufacturing prices rose by 0.6% [1] - Energy production prices decreased by 1% [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Price Changes - Within manufacturing, the wood and wood products industry experienced a year-on-year price increase of 4.7% [1] - The food production sector saw a price increase of 2.9% year-on-year [1] - The machinery repair and installation sector's prices rose by 2.1% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, the coke and refined petroleum products sector experienced a significant price drop of 17.9% year-on-year [1] - Basic metals manufacturing prices decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [1] - The computer and electronic products manufacturing sector saw a price decline of 2.3% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export and Import Price Indices - In October 2025, Estonia's export price index increased by 1% year-on-year [2] - The import price index also rose by 0.7% year-on-year [2]
中金岭南:公司暂无锂矿资源
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-11-21 11:07
Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongjin Lingnan, announced on November 21 that it currently has no lithium mine resources, while providing details on its metal resource reserves as of the end of 2024 [1] Resource Summary - The company has the following metal resource reserves: - Zinc: 7.13 million tons [1] - Lead: 3.66 million tons [1] - Copper: 143,000 tons [1] - Silver: 6,607 tons [1] - Gold: 90 tons [1] - Nickel: 92,400 tons [1] - Gallium: 717 tons [1] - Germanium: 240 tons [1] - Tungsten: 16,500 tons [1]
MONGOL MINING11月21日斥资99.1万港元回购10.2万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 10:21
MONGOL MINING(00975)发布公告,于2025年11月21日,该公司斥资99.1万港元回购10.2万股。 ...
安哥拉将加快矿业许可证审批速度,以吸引更多投资
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 00:46
ANRM主席Jacinto Rocha表示,该机构将加强执法力度,支持多元化发展。在Moxico省和Cuando Cubango新发现的铜矿,以及在Namibe省发现的锂矿都需要更为严格的监管。 此举支持了安哥拉试图扩大其非石油矿产行业并吸引外国资本的意图。包括嘉能可(Glencore)、艾芬 豪矿业(Ivanhoe Mines)和泰兰纳资源公司(Tyranna Resources Ltd.)在内的多家公司都是活跃于该国 采矿业的国际勘探公司。 11月20日(周四),安哥拉将缩短采矿权授予时间,以便吸引更多投资进入该国的矿业部门。 矿业和石油部长Diamantino Azevedo在和矿产监管机构举行的一次活动上发表声明称,矿产监管机构必 须减少官僚主义,加强审查,并加快推出数字化采矿登记系统,以提升透明度。 Azevedo表示,安哥拉国家矿产资源局(ANRM)也应缩短许可证审批时间,但他并未具体说明目前的 审批流程需要多长时间,也未说明应缩短多少。 ...
撒哈拉以南非洲人口增长:到2050年每年需要新增2500万个就业岗位
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-20 17:29
(原标题:撒哈拉以南非洲人口增长:到2050年每年需要新增2500万个就业岗位) 报告指出,劳动力市场人口数量的增长主要是由于"独特的"人口结构变化。预计未来25年,撒哈拉 以南非洲将占全球人口增长的90%。 这一动态是在多重脆弱性背景下发生的:持续不断的冲突、日益 加剧的气候变化影响以及脆弱的公共财政。此外,该地区目前已难以为其现有劳动年龄人口提供足够的 就业机会。 为了大规模地为数百万进入劳动力市场的人口创造就业机会,撒哈拉以南非洲必须采用一 种基于发展中大型企业的新型增长模式。 此外,创造就业机会将取决于降低营商环境相关成本的能力。营商环境的改善将使现有企业能够发 展壮大,并鼓励在非洲市场建立新的高增长型企业。世行强调,具有创造就业潜力的关键行业包括农业 综合企业、采矿业以及旅游和酒店业。 为实现这一目标,必须消除阻碍私营部门发展的障碍。这需要 制定旨在改善基础设施、提升劳动力技能、营造更有利的营商环境以及加强政府及其机构能力的政策。 目前,鲜有具体战略能够帮助劳动力为未来的现实做好准备。预计到2030年,非洲人口将达到4.5亿, 而就业人口仅为1亿。 世行指出,中非、尼日尔、刚果民主共和国、索马里和安 ...
2025年10月经济数据点评:\三驾马车\承压,主要经济指标走弱
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-11-20 14:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].
1-10月第一、二产业固定资产投资完成额同比增速维持正增长 | 高频看宏观
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 12:58
Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 18, 2025, is 1.25, a decrease of 0.03 from November 11 [1][3] - Industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" fell by 0.21 and 0.03 respectively, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] Consumption and Retail - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, marking five consecutive months of decline; however, catering revenue increased by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8%, the highest level since June [25] Foreign Trade - In October, the total import and export value was 520.632 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth since March this year [25] - The import growth rate dropped from 7.4% in September to 1.0%, while the export growth rate fell from 8.3% to -1.1% [25] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][25] - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw their added value growth rates decline to 4.5% and 4.9% respectively, while the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water rebounded to 5.4% [2][25] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 18, the central bank net injected 465.1 billion yuan through open market operations, with a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [6] - The overnight interbank rate rose by 3 basis points to 1.58%, and the 7-day repurchase rate increased by 2 basis points to 1.54% [8][10] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first and third-tier cities decreased by 1.31% and 12.7% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a significant increase of 39.19% [41][42] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 9.02%, 5.04%, and 15.21% in first, second, and third-tier cities respectively [44] Shipping and Logistics - The coastal bulk freight index rose by 14.65 points to 1250.56, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 144 points to 2216 [37] - The container freight index for exports was 1094.03, up by 35.86 from November 7 [37] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index increased by 0.11 points to 99.59, and the RMB to USD exchange rate rose by 82 basis points to 7.1125 [50][52] - The VIX index rose by 7.41 points to 24.69, indicating increased market volatility [57]
海南矿业:股东海钢集团拟减持不超0.75%股份
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-20 10:20
每经AI快讯,11月20日,海南矿业(601969)(601969.SH)公告称,股东海南海钢集团有限公司因自身 资金需求,计划于2025年12月12日至2026年3月11日期间,通过集中竞价交易方式减持公司股份不超过 1,500万股,占公司总股本的不超过0.75%。减持股份来源于首次公开发行前取得的股份。 ...