热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,311 | +17↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1427498 | +10408↑ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -8,155 | -1248↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | +5↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 139537 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 146 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | +10.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,340.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,190.00 | 0.00 | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 19.00 | +3.00 ...

12月25日至26日，全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开，会议总结2025年和"十四五"时期工作，分析把 握新形势，研究"十五五"时期重点任务，并面向2026年部署十方面重点工作。 其中，"全力巩固工业经济稳中向好态势"是下一年工作的首要任务，明年将加大绿色产品、潮品、适老 产品等供给，系统培育中国消费品名品方阵。同时，推进"人工智能+制造"专项行动，培育一批重点行 业智能体、智能原生企业。 另外，本次全国工信会议对于传统产业、新兴产业、未来产业都作出了详细部署。传统产业方面，将推 动"数智赋能"，新兴产业和未来产业方面，明年将打造集成电路、新型显示、新材料、航空航天、低空 经济、生物医药等新兴支柱产业，还将开展未来产业重点细分赛道创新任务揭榜挂帅，完善具身智能、 元宇宙等的创新发展政策。 巩固稳中向好态势居首位 会议强调，2026年要围绕实现"十五五"良好开局，聚焦重点、抓住关键，突出抓好十个方面重点工作， 其中居于首位的便是"全力巩固工业经济稳中向好态势"。记者注意到，去年全国工业和信息化工作会议 上，居于首位的重点工作表述为"全力促进工业经济平稳增长"。 从"促进平稳增长"向"巩固稳中向好态势"转变之间的 ...

国家统计局12月27日发布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿 元。国家统计局有关负责人表示，总体看，规模以上工业企业利润延续增长态势，工业新动能的支撑作 用进一步显现。 累计增速连续4个月保持增长 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁介绍，1—11月份，规模以上工业企业利润延续8月份以来的增 长态势，工业经济转型升级有序推进。 看利润增速，1—11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，自今年8月份以来累计增速连续4 个月保持增长。从三大门类看，1—11月份，制造业实现利润总额50317.9亿元，增长5.0%；电力、热 力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额8054.4亿元，增长8.4%；采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同 比下降27.2%，降幅较1—10月份收窄0.6个百分点。 "从行业看，自今年以来，钢铁行业盈利状况改善明显，叠加低基数因素，行业利润同比大幅增 长；在市场需求增加、营收增长较快的带动下，有色行业利润保持两位数增长。"于卫宁说，1—11月 份，规模以上原材料制造业利润增长较快，同比增速达16.6%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.0 个百分点。 ...

本报讯 （记者郭冀川）12月25日至26日，全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开。会议总结2025年和"十 四五"时期工作，分析把握新形势，研究"十五五"时期重点任务，部署2026年重点工作。 会议指出，2025年，工业和信息化系统认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，顺利完成全年目标任 务。 工业经济稳中有进。工业经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，展现强大 韧性和活力。预计全年，电信业务总量和软件业务收入分别同比增长9%和12%左右，数字产业业务收 入同比增长9%左右。 一是全力巩固工业经济稳中向好态势。深入实施新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，支持工业大省挑 大梁。加大绿色产品、潮品、适老产品等供给，系统培育中国消费品名品方阵。着力稳定制造业有效投 资。继续保持烟草行业稳健发展。 二是持续提升产业链韧性和安全水平。实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动，推动特色优势矿产资源 产业高质量发展，深入实施产业基础再造工程，办好产业转移发展对接活动。 三是加快提升产业科技创新能力。攻克一批带动产业发展的核心技术，做强一批高水平制造业中试平 台，打造全国制造业中试服务网络。加快培育全国一体化技术市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need to implement the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council to boost domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation in the face of complex external environments and economic pressures [1] Group 1 - The industrial enterprises' profit data for January to September 2025 indicates ongoing economic challenges [1] - There is a focus on promoting both domestic and international dual circulation to enhance market vitality and development expectations [1] - The goal is to ensure stable and healthy development of the industrial economy [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need to implement the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council to address the complex external environment and economic pressures [1] Group 1 - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to promote a stable and healthy development of the industrial economy [1] - There is an emphasis on stimulating market vitality and boosting development expectations in the face of ongoing economic challenges [1]

Overall Economic Perspective - The industrial economy shows steady progress, with industrial production increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, and a month-on-month increase of 0.64% [4][3] - The manufacturing sector continues to advance towards high-end development, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growing by 10.3% year-on-year in September [4] Consumer Sector - The retail sales growth rate slightly declined to 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, influenced by the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy [5][11] - Restaurant income growth was only 0.9% year-on-year, with a decline in revenue from large-scale dining establishments [5][11] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September 2025, with real estate investment continuing to decline, down 13.9% year-on-year [6][24] - The sales area of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [6][21] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually improve as macroeconomic stability and consumption policies take effect, with the liquor industry showing signs of bottoming out [10][11] - Key companies in the sector, such as Wei Long and Ximai Foods, are recommended for investment due to their growth potential [10] Retail Sector - The retail sector maintained steady growth, with online retail sales increasing by 9.8% year-on-year from January to September 2025, while offline retail growth showed signs of slowing down [18][19] - The performance of optional consumption categories, such as cosmetics and jewelry, remains strong, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [17][19] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in sales and investment, particularly in lower-tier cities [21][24] - Recommendations for investment focus on companies with strong credit ratings and those that can adapt to changing consumer demands [25] Agricultural Sector - Haida Group reported a 13.24% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong feed sales [26][27] - The company is planning to spin off its subsidiary for a separate listing, which is expected to enhance its overseas business development [28][29] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance company, Yingshi Network, achieved steady growth in revenue and profit, with a focus on AI capabilities [31][32] - The company is expanding its product applications and enhancing its cloud platform services, indicating a positive growth trajectory [33] Chemical Industry - Lianlong's Q3 net profit increased by 24.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in profitability and a focus on high-quality development [35][36] - The company is advancing its projects in anti-aging agents and lubricating oil additives, which are expected to stabilize growth [36][38]

Core Perspective - The rise of high-education individuals entering the live streaming industry reflects a structural transformation in society and the job market, driven by changing individual value demands and the emergence of new occupational forms [3][11][13] Group 1: Employment Challenges - The employment difficulties faced by high-education graduates stem from a structural mismatch between supply and demand, rather than an oversupply of talent [4] - In 2024, the number of college graduates in China is expected to exceed 11.79 million, creating a historical high, while traditional job markets are experiencing a structural contraction [4][10] - High-education graduates often have rigid career expectations, favoring state-owned enterprises and large corporations, which do not align with the evolving job market [4][10] Group 2: Opportunities in Live Streaming - The live streaming industry offers a new outlet for high-education individuals, allowing them to convert their cultural capital and professional skills directly into economic capital [6][10] - The low entry barriers and high flexibility of the live streaming industry align with the career value demands of younger generations, who prioritize self-fulfillment over job stability [7][10] - Successful cases of high-education individuals in live streaming create a demonstration effect, encouraging others to view it as a low-risk, high-reward alternative [9][10] Group 3: Social and Economic Implications - The phenomenon of high-education individuals entering live streaming is indicative of a broader shift from an industrial economy to a digital economy, characterized by personalized and diversified job forms [11][13] - The live streaming industry's rise is a response to the limitations of traditional employment systems and reflects a reconfiguration of social resources [13] - Future developments in digital technology are likely to lead to the emergence of more new occupational forms, necessitating a focus on providing support and security for new professional groups [13]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial economy in Zhangqiao District is showing positive growth, with significant increases in industrial production, investment, and key industry performance, indicating a robust economic outlook for the region [3][4]. Industrial Performance - Zhangqiao District has a diverse industrial base, with 31 major categories and a total of 666 subcategories, making it a traditional industrial hub in Jinan [3]. - The industrial added value in the district increased by 5.1% in the first half of the year, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the GDP growth [3]. - The total output value of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 65.85 billion yuan, ranking second in the city [3]. Investment Trends - Industrial investment in Zhangqiao District reached 6.46 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for one-seventh of the city's total and showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [3]. - Manufacturing investment was particularly strong, totaling 4.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, representing 65.5% of the total industrial investment [3]. - Technological transformation investment amounted to 4.22 billion yuan, making up about 20% of the city's total and ranking first in the city [3]. Key Industries and Growth - Fourteen industries in the district achieved positive growth in the first half of the year, with notable performances in automotive manufacturing (23.704 billion yuan, up 3.44%), metal products (7.538 billion yuan, up 8.59%), and beverage and refined tea manufacturing (1.877 billion yuan, up 21.23%) [4]. - There were 39 enterprises with output growth exceeding 10%, and 12 enterprises with growth over 50%, solidifying the foundation for stable industrial growth [4]. Future Outlook - The district plans to continue exploring new growth points in the industrial economy, focusing on operational stability and expansion [4]. - Efforts will be made to support and cultivate over 40 small and micro enterprises, aiming to grow the number of billion-yuan enterprises and establish a sustainable enterprise structure [4]. - The strategy includes strengthening leading industries and optimizing industrial chains through both internal development and external attraction, fostering a collaborative industrial development model [4].

Core Points - The meeting summarized the "Industrial Over 100 Billion, More Beautiful City" concentrated attack action and outlined the work for the second half of the year, aiming for high-quality development in the Yihe New District [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development - The Yihe New District has taken the lead in Linyi City this year, proposing the overall requirement of "pragmatic innovation, leading the way" to drive high-quality development [1] - Key economic indicators have shown significant improvement, achieving the set targets through collaborative efforts from various levels and departments [1] - The focus for the second half of the year includes enhancing industrial economic operations, accelerating project construction, and strengthening the entrepreneur team to boost industrial economy [2] Group 2: Urban Quality Improvement - The goal is to enhance urban quality by creating a modern new city characterized by "vitality, livability, and ecology" [1][2] - Plans include building a cross-border e-commerce gathering area and expanding foreign investment channels to strengthen the open economy [2] Group 3: Innovation and Reform - Emphasis on practical innovation and collaboration among departments to enhance service and governance, fostering a competitive atmosphere [3] - The approach includes reform thinking, forward-looking strategies, and a focus on problem-solving within professional fields [3] Group 4: Recognition and Awards - The meeting recognized 10 projects with the "Ten Good Projects" honor and awarded several units and individuals for their contributions to project services and advancements [5]