最近，中国与巴西之间的"大豆采购"竞争悄然升温。虽然大豆看似是一种小小的农产品，但它背后却与全球粮食安全紧密相关，甚至涉及到国家的战略安 全。 这场较量的起点，可以追溯到中美贸易战。那时，中国几乎完全暂停了从美国进口大豆，转而寻找南美的供应商，最终把目光投向了巴西。然而，巴西却在 尝到甜头之后，迅速提高了大豆的价格。 巴西本应更加珍惜中国这个大客户，却反手"加价"——大豆的价格从每吨580美元一跃上涨至650美元，涨幅接近12%。这个价格比美国的大豆贵了整整66美 元一吨！价格一涨，国内大豆压榨企业面临了不小的压力。每加工一吨大豆，企业的亏损额超过200元人民币。许多油厂因此决定暂停从巴西采购，尤其是 12月和明年1月的订单，共计达800万吨。 在此背景下，巴西似乎认为，中国如此依赖自己，无法轻易找到替代供应商。的确，数据显示，中国在2025年前九个月从巴西进口了5210万吨大豆，占中国 大豆进口总量的66%，某些月份甚至高达93%。可巴西却忘了，中国早已不再是那个"只有你能供应"的中国了。 近年来，中国已经开始实施"大豆进口多元化战略"，不再将所有"鸡蛋"放在一个篮子里。阿根廷、乌拉圭、俄罗斯，甚至一些非洲 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have led to a significant shift in the soybean market, with Brazil initially positioned to benefit but ultimately mismanaging the opportunity [1][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, China has ceased soybean imports from the US due to increased tariffs, creating a gap that Brazil was expected to fill [1] - Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise from 95.7 million tons in 2015 to 177.6 million tons by 2025, surpassing the US's expected production of 116 million tons [3] - By September, Brazil accounted for 71.6% of China's soybean imports, while the US's share dropped to 22.8% [5] Group 2: Pricing Issues - Brazilian exporters raised soybean prices significantly, with prices at the Port of Paranaguá exceeding US prices by $66.1 per ton, marking a four-year high premium [9] - The price increase led to a situation where Chinese buyers decided to halt purchases, resulting in a complete stop of contracts for December and January [12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Argentina has emerged as a viable alternative for China, signing a 1.3 million ton soybean order shortly after negotiations with Brazil broke down [12][14] - The rise of Argentina and other countries like Uruguay and Paraguay indicates a diversification of China's soybean supply sources, reducing reliance on Brazil [16] Group 4: Future Implications - Brazil's overconfidence and price gouging may lead to a loss of market trust, with predictions that a decline in Chinese orders could leave a surplus of unsold soybeans [16][20] - The situation serves as a warning to commodity exporters about the importance of maintaining fair pricing and stable supply relationships in international trade [18][20]

Core Insights - Brazilian soybean prices have reached a premium of $66/ton over U.S. Gulf prices, the highest in nearly four years, indicating Brazilian exporters' confidence in their pricing power in the Chinese market [1][5] - However, this confidence was quickly challenged as Chinese buyers turned to Argentina, signing contracts for 1.3 million tons of soybeans within two days, demonstrating China's ability to adapt [3][12] Market Dynamics - Brazil's dominant position in the Chinese soybean market, with over 71% market share expected by August 2025, has led to overconfidence among exporters, who predict exports to China will exceed 110 million tons for the year [5][16] - The misconception that temporary market share equates to permanent pricing power is a strategic error for Brazil, as soybean is a highly standardized commodity where competitiveness relies on cost and supply stability [7][9] China's Response - China's procurement system is complex and robust, emphasizing food security as a national strategy, which allows for diversified supply sources and strong risk management capabilities [9][11] - The swift response from China to seek alternative suppliers like Argentina, Uruguay, and Russia highlights its proactive approach to supply chain management [12][16] Financial Strategies - Chinese companies utilize financial instruments such as futures markets for hedging, allowing them to lock in procurement costs and mitigate risks from price volatility [14] - The State Grain Reserve of China maintains sufficient soybean reserves to stabilize domestic prices during international price fluctuations, signaling that China is not desperate for high-priced imports [15][16] Lessons for Exporters - Brazil's experience serves as a cautionary tale for resource-dependent countries, emphasizing the importance of trust, stability, and win-win scenarios over short-term price manipulation [16][18]

Core Insights - The Yangling Agricultural High-tech Achievements Expo has attracted international exhibitors, showcasing a diverse range of products and enhancing trade opportunities [1][3][6] - Exhibitors from various countries, including Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, have significantly increased their product offerings and participation levels compared to previous years [1][4][6] Group 1: Exhibitor Experiences - An Afghan exhibitor, Anif, has progressed from bringing only two suitcases of products three years ago to nearly one ton of goods this year, including carpets and jewelry [1] - Sri Lankan exhibitor Anura has expanded his offerings to over a hundred types of tea, responding to customer feedback and aiming to strengthen ties with the Chinese market [3] - Pakistani exhibitor Ali has seen his product range grow from four or five simple jade items to a wide array of nearly fifty, reflecting the growing interest from Pakistani merchants in the expo [4] Group 2: Event Significance - The expo serves as a vital platform for trade and cultural exchange among the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with over 100 institutions and enterprises participating [6] - The event is positioned as a bridge connecting local markets with international opportunities, fostering economic and cultural collaboration [6]

大豆涨疯了，谁都没想到巴西大豆价格在短短6天里暴涨了20%，一度把我国采购商逼到了"暂停键"。 然而，地球另一端的中国市场，却上演了令人瞠目结舌的一幕。面对这股扑面而来的涨价潮，国内豆粕的现货价格非但没有跟风暴涨， 反而在短短一周内，从高点急转直下，价格直接跳水了700元/吨。 2025年10月下旬，国际大豆贸易市场突发震荡：巴西对华大豆报价在短短22天内从565美元 / 吨飙升至650美元 / 吨，涨幅高达15%，部分 出口商报价甚至一度触及79.9%的极端水平，创下巴西大豆对华出口历史最高价。 这一远超市场正常波动的涨价行为，让中国国内压榨企业陷入困境，每加工一吨大豆就要面临超过200元的亏损，而巴西帕拉纳瓜港的报 价更是比国际基准价高出近 美元/蒲式耳，贸易天平出现明显失衡。 就在市场担忧中国会被动接受高价时，一系列精准有力的应对措施迅速落地，130 万吨大豆订单毅然转向阿根廷，这场国际贸易博弈的 走向被彻底改写。 巴西大豆此次涨价并非偶然，多重因素的叠加推高了市场价格。 从供应端来看，南美洲遭遇百年一遇的干旱天气，导致巴西大豆主产区产量下滑，市场供应本就偏紧。 与此同时，巴西国内生产流通成本持续攀升， ...

Core Insights - Brazilian soybean exporters have raised prices to $650 per ton, a $70 increase from the previous month, making it more expensive than U.S. soybeans, leading to losses for Chinese processing companies [1][3] - In response, China has halted purchases of 8 million tons of Brazilian soybeans for December and January, instead signing a deal for 1.3 million tons from Argentina, filling the supply gap left by Brazil [3][5] Group 1: Price Dynamics and Market Reactions - The price increase by Brazilian exporters was based on a misjudgment of China's dependency, as Brazil accounted for 66% of China's soybean imports from January to September 2025 [3] - Brazil's price surge was influenced by the halt in U.S. soybean imports due to trade tensions, leading Brazilian exporters to believe they had a monopoly [3][5] - Argentina's sudden removal of a 26% soybean export tax has made its soybeans significantly cheaper, prompting a rapid response from Chinese buyers [5][7] Group 2: Strategic Responses from China - China has a strategic reserve of approximately 45 million tons of soybeans, sufficient to meet three months of consumption, and has already released 1.5 million tons to stabilize prices [7] - The diversification of soybean import sources has expanded from three to twelve countries, including increased imports from Russia and Uruguay, reducing reliance on Brazil [7] - Technological advancements in feed have reduced the proportion of soybean meal in animal feed, decreasing annual soybean demand by approximately 18 million tons [7] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Market Dynamics - The recent developments have highlighted the issues in the global soybean pricing mechanism, where China, despite consuming 60% of the world's soybeans, has been subject to pricing dictated by the Chicago futures market [8] - China's actions signal a shift towards a buyer's market, where both supply and demand sides will influence pricing rules, moving away from a seller-dominated market [8] - Argentina's increased exports to China not only stabilize its foreign exchange income but also enhance its long-term credibility in the Chinese market [8]

Core Insights - The international commodity market experienced a significant surge in soybean prices from Brazil, with a monthly increase of 20%, reaching historical peak levels in October 2023 [1] - Brazil's exporters raised soybean quotes for November shipments, showcasing their confidence in pricing power [1][5] - China's response to rising prices indicates a shift from being a passive buyer to an active player in the market, employing a multi-dimensional risk mitigation strategy [3][18] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brazil's soybean market share in China reached 71.6% from January to August 2023, reflecting a near-monopoly status [5] - Brazilian exporters underestimated China's market responsiveness, leading to a significant drop in domestic soybean meal prices by 700 CNY/ton within a week [6][10] - A record premium of 66.1 USD/ton for Brazilian soybeans over U.S. counterparts was noted, the highest in four years [8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Argentina's sudden removal of a 26% export tax on soybeans provided a competitive edge, making Argentine soybeans 80 USD/ton cheaper than Brazilian ones [12][14] - The withdrawal of a 130 million ton order from Brazil redirected most of the demand to Argentina, disrupting Brazil's pricing strategy [10][14] Group 3: Supply Chain Resilience - China's internal supply chain demonstrated resilience, with sufficient raw material inventory to sustain production for 43 days, exceeding the industry warning line of 35 days [20][22] - Structural reforms in demand, including a shift to lower protein feed, reduced soybean meal consumption by 5.7% despite an overall increase in industrial feed production [24] - Domestic soybean production strategies, including subsidies and high-yield varieties, stabilized planting areas at 14.2 million acres, ensuring a backup of approximately 9 million tons of import capacity [26][30] Group 4: Financial Risk Management - Chinese industry clients utilized the Dalian Commodity Exchange to hedge against price volatility, securing 8.5 million tons of future import costs [29][32] - The proactive risk management approach reflects a matured understanding of market dynamics, supported by national policy guidance [32] Group 5: Strategic Implications - The events of October 2023 serve as a comprehensive stress test for China's food security system, showcasing a multi-layered price firewall [34][36] - The evolving role of China in the global commodity supply chain indicates a transition from a defensive posture to an active management role in shaping market expectations [36][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's soybean procurement strategy from Brazil to Argentina due to rising prices and supply chain dynamics, highlighting the consequences of Brazilian sellers' greed and miscalculations in the market [1][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brazil's soybean exports to China were expected to reach a record high of 110 million tons in 2025, driven by a significant market share of 71.6% in the first eight months of the year [3][10]. - Brazilian sellers, overconfident in their market position, began hoarding inventory, anticipating higher prices, which led to a significant price premium of $66.1 per ton compared to U.S. soybeans [6][19]. - The Brazilian sellers' strategy backfired as Argentina announced the elimination of a 26% export tax on soybeans, making their prices more competitive [8][10]. Group 2: Strategic Procurement - Following Argentina's tax reduction announcement, Chinese buyers quickly placed orders for 130,000 tons of soybeans, demonstrating a strategic shift in procurement to ensure supply chain diversification [10][15]. - The decision to source from Argentina instead of Brazil reflects China's commitment to not relying on a single supplier and maintaining food security [11][13]. - The article emphasizes that the procurement of Argentine soybeans could yield an additional profit of 200 RMB per ton, showcasing the economic rationale behind the shift [15][19]. Group 3: Consequences for Brazil - Brazilian farmers who speculated on higher prices are now facing losses as their inventory remains unsold and prices begin to decline [17][19]. - The Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) has become silent after the unexpected loss of a major order, indicating a significant market shift [15][22]. - The article draws parallels between Brazil's situation and historical market dynamics, suggesting that overconfidence can lead to significant market share losses, as seen with OPEC in the oil market [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Kunming Henghong Trading Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1.33 million RMB, focusing on various agricultural and trading services [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of Kunming Henghong Trading Co., Ltd. is Wang Yu [1] - The company’s registered capital is 1.33 million RMB [1] - The business scope includes supply chain management services, production, sales, processing, transportation, and storage of agricultural products [1] - The company is involved in retail and wholesale of edible agricultural products and fresh meat [1] - Additional activities include the sale and maintenance of agricultural machinery, technology services, and domestic trade agency [1] Industry Summary - The establishment of the company reflects growth in the agricultural and trading sectors, particularly in supply chain management and agricultural product services [1] - The diverse range of services offered indicates a comprehensive approach to agricultural commerce, which may enhance market competitiveness [1]

巴西因贪婪失去了中国市场，中国两天内狂买130万吨阿根廷大豆！ 今年的这一记"耳光"，打得既响亮又有力。自5月以来，中国几乎停止了从美国购买大豆，而巴西的大豆占据了我们进口的大部分份额，超过了七成。眼看 着巴西即将成为中国的"独家供应商"，可他们却因为贪心，选择抬高价格，结果把自己推向了困境。 对于巴西来说，中国减少购买美国大豆，本应是一个天赐良机。今年1到8月，中国共进口了7300多万吨大豆，其中71.6%来自巴西，而美国的份额只有 22.8%。巴西方面计算认为，今年可以卖给中国创纪录的1.1亿吨大豆。然而，他们由于觉得自己掌握了话语权，开始肆意抬价。 巴西的"涨价"策略非常激进。巴拉那瓜港口的大豆价格，比美国墨西哥湾贵了66美元，这个差价是过去四年来的最高点。到了10月，巴西大豆的溢价更是上 涨至每蒲式耳270美分。 更让人惊讶的是，南美的大豆收获季节即将结束，巴西农民已经售出了四分之三的库存。剩下的那些，他们选择捂紧不卖，希望赌中美关系恶化，认为中国 只能依赖他们的大豆，从而等待价格再次飙升。 他们为什么敢这么做？因为他们觉得自己掌握了中国的"命门"。中国对巴西的投资巨大，建设了仓库、修建了铁路、改造了 ...