Core Viewpoint - As of February 2, 2026, Yara International (000893) closed at 52.16 yuan, down 6.89%, with a trading volume of 195,500 lots and a transaction amount of 1.047 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's main revenue reached 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.363 billion yuan, up 163.01% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin stood at 58.91%, significantly higher than the industry average of 19.95% [5] Group 2: Market Activity - On February 2, 2026, the net outflow of main funds was 13.33 million yuan, accounting for 1.27% of the total transaction amount [2] - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 76.68 million yuan, representing 7.33% of the total transaction amount on the same day [1][2] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced a consistent net outflow from main funds, totaling 51.72 million yuan [2] Group 3: Financing and Margin Trading - On February 2, 2026, the financing balance was 6.91 billion yuan, with a net financing purchase of 31.94 million yuan [3] - The margin trading balance stood at 703 million yuan, indicating active trading behavior [3] - The company has seen a cumulative net purchase of 41.12 million yuan over the past three days [3] Group 4: Industry Comparison - Yara International's total market value is 48.513 billion yuan, ranking 4th in the fertilizer industry [5] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 26.7, significantly lower than the industry average of 93.3, ranking 12th [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is 10.97%, outperforming the industry average of 6.37% [5]

冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --2月尿素月度报告 发布日期：2026年2月2日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 观点： 供应端：近期日产位于19-21万吨附近波动，气头装置1月2月集中复产中，按照目前日均产量测算，1月份产量预计在628万吨，高于往年同 期水平。尿素厂内库存呈现去化趋势，低位库存支撑尿素价格，随着农需的不断拿货，叠加前期出口消化的货源，尿素走货流畅，库存压 力不大，预计2月月内受假期的影响，库存阶段性累库。受买涨不买跌情绪的影响，本月代发订单不断增加，且临近过年，上游工厂吸单压 力增大，预计春节前待发不断提高。 需求端：农业需求逐渐准备进入旺季阶段，随着期货盘面的上行，经销商拿货增加，工业需求方面，由于今年过年时间偏晚，1月份复合肥 工厂开工率处于不断走高的阶段，月末受环保预 ...

【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，震荡偏弱。前期待发支撑，部分上游工厂大颗粒报价 上涨，山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1710-1760 元/ 吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，近期日产位于 19-21 万吨附近波动， 气头装置 1 月 2 月集中复产中，按照目前日均产量测算，1 月份产量预计在 628 万吨，高于往年同期水平。尿素厂内库存呈现去化趋势，低位库存支撑尿素价 格，随着农需的不断拿货，叠加前期出口消化的货源，尿素走货流畅，库存压 力不大，预计 2 月月内受假期的影响，库存阶段性累库。受买涨不买跌情绪的 影响，本月代发订单不断增加，且临近过年，上游工厂吸单压力增大，预计春 节前待发不断提高。农业需求逐渐准备进入旺季阶段，随着期货盘面的上行， 经销商拿货增加，工业需求方面，由于今年过年时间偏晚，1 月份复合肥工厂 开工率处于不断走高的阶段，月末受环保预警的影响，开工略有下降，目前还 有两周即将进入春节假期，开工负荷回升受限，预计月内先抑后扬，开年后逐 渐进入农耕旺季，下游工厂对于尿素需求将进入年内高峰期，其他下游工厂也 逐渐进入放假前夕阶段。2 月中旬春节假期影响，需求端阶段性回 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening and wide fluctuations, with notable performance in the electric grid equipment, liquor, banking, and photovoltaic equipment sectors, while precious metals, fertilizers, mining, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.90 times and 52.86 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][15]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 26,069 billion, which is above the median of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][15]. - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a slight decline, but the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs remain in the expansion zone, reflecting ongoing structural optimization in the industry [3][15]. - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering opportunities in certain consumer sectors [3][15]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On February 2, the A-share market opened low and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4,103 points before retreating [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,015.75 points, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,824.35 points, down 2.69% [8]. - Over 80% of stocks declined, with only the electric grid equipment and liquor sectors showing slight increases [7]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely maintain a slight fluctuation, advising investors to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [3][15]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in the electric grid equipment, liquor, banking, and photovoltaic equipment sectors [3][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on urea is a correction. The production volume of Chinese urea production enterprises increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly next week. The increase in the next cycle is expected to be limited. [2] - Domestic demand: Mid - stream traders' enthusiasm for chasing high prices has weakened. Before the Spring Festival, mid - stream and compound fertilizer factories are expected to make rigid purchases, not chasing high prices but buying on dips. Exports currently have a small impact on the urea market. [2] - Overall, spot transactions are neutral. Urea inventory is expected to enter a stage of oscillatory pattern, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. [2] - In the short term, due to weakening macro sentiment and small - scale urea reserve releases suppressing speculative signals, futures and spot prices are expected to correct. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Unilateral strategy: Weak in the short term and strong in the medium term. It is recommended to observe the spot trading volume and go long on dips. The upper pressure for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Inter - period strategy: The 5 - 9 spread is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long position in the spread on dips in the medium term. [2] - Inter - variety strategy: None for now. [2] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices from 2018 - 2026. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][13][15][16][17][18][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025, it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the expected new production capacity is 6.51 million tons. [22] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. [24] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show the trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output from 2018 - 2026. [25][26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. Calculations of the full cost and cash - flow cost of fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with charts showing the full cost trends of urea in different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [27][28][29][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [32][33][35][36][37] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Data on monthly net imports (exports) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, along with charts showing export profits and export volumes. [38][39][40] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. Different regions have different demand patterns for different crops at different times of the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. [44][45][47] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the trends of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2026. [51][52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the trends of production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2026. [55][56][57] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the trends of export volumes of plywood, OSB, and real - estate construction and completion areas. [58][59][60][61] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 944,900 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease. As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 144,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a 7.46% increase. [2][65] International Urea - Charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price in Brazil from 2018 - 2026. [69][70][71][72]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated a review process for tariffs on phosphate fertilizers imported from Morocco and Russia, which has garnered significant attention in the international agricultural and fertilizer markets [1][2] Group 1: Review Process - The review will officially start in March 2026 and is part of a five-year review mechanism mandated by U.S. trade regulations, with a maximum review period of 360 days [1] - This review pertains to the countervailing measures imposed on Moroccan phosphate products since February 2021, following a complaint by Mosaic Company in 2020 [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The initial countervailing duty rate was set at 19.97%, significantly affecting the price competitiveness of Moroccan phosphate products in the U.S. market [1] - In 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce revised the duty rate for OCP Group to 2.12%, although the countervailing measures remain in place [1] Group 3: Focus Areas of the Review - The review will assess whether the removal of current tariffs could harm the U.S. domestic fertilizer industry [2] - It will evaluate the impact of existing tariff policies on U.S. agricultural production costs and fertilizer price levels [2] - The review will also consider the long-term effects of these measures on the competitive landscape of the U.S. domestic market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The development of humic acid water-soluble fertilizers, derived from natural organic materials, is gaining national attention as a key support for the transition to efficient ecological agriculture, with a projected market size of 43 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 17.3% year-on-year increase [1][7]. Industry Overview - Humic acid water-soluble fertilizers, also known as liquid fertilizers, are designed to improve soil structure, enhance microbial activity, and increase organic matter content, thus protecting the ecological environment [1][7]. - The industry is supported by government policies aimed at promoting green agricultural transformation, with specific mentions in key documents such as the Central No. 1 Document for 2025 [1][3]. Market Size and Growth - The market size for humic acid water-soluble fertilizers is expected to reach 43 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1][8]. - The production of humic acid in China is projected to reach 3.01 million tons in 2024, marking a 4.5% increase from the previous year [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The industry exhibits a "head concentration, long tail dispersion" competitive structure, with leading companies like Yuntianhua dominating the high-end market due to their resource advantages and technological accumulation [9]. - Key players in the industry include Yuntianhua, Stanley, and Batians, among others, with varying degrees of market share and product offerings [9][10]. Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards standardized and strategic development driven by national policies, which will enhance product quality and environmental standards [11]. - There is a shift towards functional composite and customized products, with companies focusing on developing high-end products that meet specific agricultural needs [11][12]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with leading firms expanding their market share through mergers and strategic partnerships, while smaller companies face competitive pressures [12].

能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、 期货市场：尿素期货大幅下挫，最终报收 1790（-24/-1.32%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价坚挺，收单转弱，河南出厂报 1710-1720 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1740-1760 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1750-1760 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1650-1670 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1740-1750 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1590-1630 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 30 日，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增 加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价窄幅波动，市场情绪平稳，成交尚可，厂家收单跟进。山东地区主 流出厂报价坚挺，市场情绪表现亢奋，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料库存充裕，成品库 存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货，新单成交转 弱，省内尿素厂收单零星，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主；河南地区市场情绪尚 可，出厂报价明稳暗降，贸易 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings has announced that its 700,000-ton synthetic ammonia project at the Shencheng base has entered the commissioning phase, utilizing advanced water-coal slurry gasification technology to enhance its operational efficiency and environmental performance [1] Group 1: Project Development - The synthetic ammonia project is designed to ensure self-sufficiency in raw materials for compound fertilizer nitrogen [1] - The project aims to improve the cost competitiveness and risk resistance of the company's nitrogen industry chain through technological upgrades and industrial synergy [1] - The commissioning of this project is expected to drive stable development in the company's core compound fertilizer business [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.9% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.75 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.8%, with notable increases in zucchini (9.1%), cabbage (6.4%), and cucumber (5.4%) [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products saw slight increases, with carp, yellow croaker, and crucian carp rising by 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Overall wholesale prices of meat increased, with pork priced at 19.09 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.4%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [1] - Poultry product prices fluctuated slightly, with eggs increasing by 4.3% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits remained stable, with citrus, bananas, and pears increasing by 1.7%, 0.9%, and 0.3%, while watermelon, grapes, and apples decreased by 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with flour remaining stable, while soybean oil, peanut oil, rice, and rapeseed oil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly decreased, with zinc, copper, and aluminum falling by 2.1%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber decreasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices showed a minor decrease, with channel steel, ordinary medium plates, and rebar priced at 3547 yuan, 3637 yuan, and 3363 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices fluctuated slightly, with urea decreasing by 0.1% and compound fertilizer increasing by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices showed minor fluctuations, with thermal coal and smokeless lump coal priced at 777 yuan and 1138 yuan per ton, both down by 0.3%, while coking coal increased by 1.2% to 1047 yuan per ton [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly increased, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel rising by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials saw slight increases, with sulfuric acid rising by 1.1%, while soda ash, polypropylene, and methanol decreased by 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2]