转自：武汉发布 近日 "快递停运"冲上微博热搜 引发网友热议 不少人表示有点"焦虑" 圆通速递、申通快递、韵达快递客服均表示，春节期间快递不停，且未收到加价通知。 中国邮政速递物流客服表示，快递运送全年无休，但有可能会出现上门取件加价情况，具体规定需看后续通知。 中通快递客服称，目前暂未接到停运通知。另外，正常情况下，春节期间不会收取资源调节费。 京东物流则回应，根据春节期间快递流量情况，部分站点可能会出现排班情况，且会产生资源调度费，具体需以站点为准。 此外，顺丰速运、德邦快递客服均回复春节期间不停运，但运输费用会有调整。 同时，快递企业提醒：因节日期间资源调配受限、极端天气变化等多重因素，快件时效或将受到不同程度影响。 对此，多家快递企业 相继发布春节期间服务安排 宣布将继续提供收派服务 全力满足节日期间的寄递需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, indicating a potential "golden era" for airlines due to improving demand and supply constraints [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which may impact shipping dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of the shipbuilding sector, with recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as the dollar strengthens [2]. - The report notes that VLCC freight rates remain high, with a slight increase of 2% week-on-week, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand in the oil shipping market [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a growing trend in international travel [2]. - The express delivery industry faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates have shown a week-on-week increase of 2%, with current rates at $124,743 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have decreased by 3% and 7% respectively [2]. - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates, particularly in the context of the Middle East and the Black Sea region [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with airlines expected to benefit from increased capacity allocation to international routes and a favorable oil price environment [2]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading firms, with ZTO Express and YTO Express being noted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. - The report suggests that despite uncertainties, the competitive landscape will favor established players [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic have shown resilience, with a reported increase of 2.27% and 4.75% respectively in recent weeks [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management opportunities [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the transportation sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as SF Holding and China Southern Airlines [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is seeing improvements with DSV's integration of DB Schenker progressing ahead of schedule, and a focus on smart logistics is recommended for Hai Chen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a slight decrease in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from manufacturers. Recommendations include China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport indices are on the rise, indicating a potential increase in oil transport demand [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with significant increases in truck traffic on highways and a notable rise in the dividend yield of major public road operators [6][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.8% during the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.2% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping Ports - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% week-on-week and down 20.7% year-on-year. The Shanghai export container shipping index (SCFI) was at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% week-on-week and down 33.2% year-on-year [21]. 2.2 Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a 6% increase and international routes a 9% increase [56]. 2.3 Rail and Road - In December 2025, national railway passenger volume was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while road freight volume was 3.797 billion tons, up 0.62% year-on-year [77][79].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the operational status of various express delivery companies during the upcoming Spring Festival, highlighting that most companies will continue to provide services but may implement additional charges due to increased demand and resource allocation challenges [2][4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that it will operate year-round but may introduce additional charges for pick-up services, with specific details to be announced later [4]. - JD Logistics indicated that during the peak period from January 19 to February 23, 2026, it will impose a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg on express heavy cargo, depending on the station [4]. - SF Express announced that it will charge a resource adjustment fee during the Spring Festival from February 16 to February 23, with reports of price increases in certain areas [5]. - YTO Express stated that it will maintain normal operations except for certain regions affected by third-party logistics or weather, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [5]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with some areas experiencing delays and potential price increases [6]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Companies are preparing for potential delays in delivery times due to limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [6]. - Different express delivery companies may have varying operational statuses based on local conditions, with some branches still awaiting specific instructions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "express delivery suspension" trending on social media has caused public anxiety, prompting multiple express delivery companies to announce their service arrangements during the Spring Festival, ensuring continued delivery services to meet holiday demand [1]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that delivery services will operate year-round, but there may be additional charges for pick-up services, with specific regulations to be announced later [1]. - JD Logistics indicated that due to peak delivery volumes, some stations may implement scheduling changes and resource adjustment fees, with a peak resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg applicable from January 19 to February 23, 2026 [1]. - SF Express and Debon Express both stated that they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, but transportation costs will be adjusted, with SF Express planning to charge resource adjustment fees during the holiday period [1]. - YTO Express announced that from February 15 to February 23, they will ensure service continuity and network stability, with normal operations in most regions except for certain areas affected by third-party logistics or weather [2]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [2]. - Zhongtong Express stated they will ensure customer delivery needs are met, with staffing adjustments based on local conditions, although some locations may not guarantee timely delivery [2]. - Shentong Express also confirmed normal service during the holiday, with possible adjustments to delivery fees based on local conditions [2]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Express delivery companies warned that delivery efficiency may be impacted by limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [3].

Core Insights - The rapid development of rural e-commerce in China has established a three-tier electronic commerce service and logistics distribution system at the county, township, and village levels, significantly contributing to farmers' income and rural consumption [1] Group 1: Rural E-commerce Development - By 2025, the national rural online retail sales are expected to grow by 6.7% year-on-year, while agricultural product online retail sales are projected to increase by 9.9% year-on-year [1] - The integration of logistics and e-commerce has made rural life more convenient, allowing for better quality of life and increased economic activity in rural areas [1] Group 2: Case Study - Inner Mongolia - In Inner Mongolia, a new model combining passenger and freight transport has been implemented, allowing rural residents to receive packages directly in their villages, thus reducing the need for long-distance travel [3] - The collaboration between postal services and local bus companies has led to a significant increase in delivery efficiency, with an average of 4,000 packages being transported daily across seven townships and 94 villages by the end of 2025 [4] Group 3: Case Study - Liaoning - In Liaoning, rural supermarkets have become package collection points, enhancing the convenience of e-commerce for local residents and increasing the number of elderly individuals engaging in online shopping [5][6] - The integration of package delivery services with local businesses has resulted in a 30% increase in revenue for rural supermarkets [6] Group 4: Case Study - Shanxi - In Shanxi, live-streaming e-commerce has significantly boosted the income of local fruit farmers, with one farmer reporting sales exceeding 30,000 yuan in a single day through live broadcasts [7][8] - The county has developed over 1,000 e-commerce enterprises, creating employment for over 60,000 people, and has implemented logistics subsidies to reduce shipping costs for local farmers [9][10] - By 2025, the e-commerce sales of agricultural products in Shanxi are expected to reach 2.5 billion yuan, with live-streaming sales accounting for 25% of this figure [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential for a "golden era" in aviation [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes India's potential reduction in oil imports from Russia, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which could impact shipping dynamics [3]. - The strengthening of the US dollar is expected to benefit the shipbuilding sector, with Q1 performance anticipated to improve [3]. - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for significant growth due to historical high passenger load factors and increasing international travel demand, despite supply constraints [3]. Summary by Sections Transportation Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.90%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.23 percentage points [4]. - The aviation sector saw the highest increase at 8.15%, while the raw materials supply chain services experienced a decline of 2.10% [4]. Shipping and Freight Rates - The VLCC average freight rate rose slightly by 2% to $124,743 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates remaining stable at $134,282 per day [3]. - The report notes fluctuations in various shipping rates, with Suezmax rates declining by 3% to $94,768 per day and Aframax rates down by 7% to $91,146 per day [3]. Aviation Sector - The report highlights the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [3]. - It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as more capacity is allocated to international routes, marking a turning point for the industry [3]. Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to gain market share [3]. - SF Express is noted for its structural adjustments and potential bottoming opportunities [3]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national rail freight reaching 76.1 million tons, a 2.27% increase week-on-week [3]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend stocks and undervalued stocks with potential for market capitalization management [3].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether express delivery services will be suspended during the Spring Festival has garnered attention, with major companies confirming they will continue to provide services during this period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post will continue to provide services from February 15 to 23, allowing users to submit collection requests through various online channels and providing customer service via a dedicated hotline [1]. - SF Express will ensure the operation of express delivery services during the Spring Festival, adjusting service fees for certain shipments, with additional resource adjustment fees applied during the holiday [1]. - YTO Express will maintain service availability during the Spring Festival, with normal operations in most regions, except for areas affected by third-party logistics disruptions or weather conditions [2]. - Shentong Express will adjust operations based on local conditions, with most areas expected to have normal collection and delivery services, advising users to confirm specific times with local outlets [2]. - Zhongtong Express will also ensure stable logistics support during the Spring Festival, while JD Logistics commits to providing comprehensive logistics safety and service coverage, including same-day and next-day delivery options [3]. Group 2: Service Adjustments and Fees - SF Express will charge a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.5 yuan/kg for shipments over 20kg from January 19 to February 15, with additional fees during the holiday period [1]. - JD Logistics will implement a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg for express heavy goods during the Spring Festival [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "express delivery suspension" trending on social media has caused public anxiety, prompting multiple express delivery companies to announce their service arrangements during the Spring Festival, ensuring continued collection and delivery services to meet holiday demand [1] Group 1: Company Responses - SF Express and Debon Express confirmed that they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, although transportation fees will be adjusted. SF Express will impose a resource adjustment fee from February 16 to February 23, with some areas experiencing a price increase of 10 yuan [4] - China Post Express Logistics stated that they will operate year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, with specific regulations to be announced later [5] - JD Logistics indicated that service availability may vary based on express delivery volume during the Spring Festival, with potential resource adjustment fees depending on the station [5] - YTO Express announced that from February 15 to February 23, they will ensure service continuity and network stability, with normal operations in most regions except for certain areas affected by third-party logistics suspensions or weather conditions [9] - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-province and 4-5 days for inter-province deliveries [9] - Zhongtong Express stated they will reasonably ensure customer delivery needs and maintain smooth logistics support, with variations in service based on local conditions [9] - Shentong Express affirmed they will operate normally during the Spring Festival, with possible adjustments to service arrangements and fees based on local circumstances [9] Group 2: Service Impact and Adjustments - Express delivery companies warned that service efficiency may be affected by limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [8]