Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fifth Chang'an Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Exchange Conference focuses on advanced technologies in the two-wheeled vehicle and battery exchange industry, gathering over 300 key enterprises and 600 executives to discuss industry development. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was held on July 11, 2025, in Shenzhen, organized by various entities including Qidian Lithium Battery and Qidian Solid-State Battery [1] - The forum emphasized discussions on cutting-edge technologies such as lithium batteries, sodium batteries, high-rate charging, and new materials [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Star恒电源 has developed a comprehensive battery manufacturing and recycling business over 20 years, with production bases in Suzhou and Chuzhou, and international factories in Hungary and Indonesia [4] - The current production capacity is 2.25 GWh in Suzhou and 8 GWh in Chuzhou, with an upcoming expansion of 4 GWh [5] Group 3: Material Innovations - The company focuses on manganese-based materials, particularly lithium manganese oxide, which offers good ionic conductivity and stability, making it suitable for two-wheeled vehicles [5] - The first-generation single crystal Mn3O4 precursor material developed by the company enhances performance by 50% compared to traditional materials, reducing processing costs [5] - Lithium iron manganese phosphate is another material being explored, which has a voltage platform around 3.8V and is cost-effective [6] Group 4: Production Methods - Two main production methods for manganese-based materials are discussed: liquid phase methods (e.g., co-precipitation, sol-gel) and solid phase methods (e.g., high-temperature solid-state) [8] - Liquid phase methods offer better material uniformity but are complex, while solid phase methods are simpler and more cost-effective but may result in lower quality [8] Group 5: Advanced Technologies - The company introduced its seventh-generation technology, "Super Lithium S7," which combines the advantages of various manganese-based materials and has been successfully applied in over 200,000 vehicles [9] - The development of a precursor material platform aims to produce high-purity manganese oxides and transition metal oxides, with significant production capabilities planned for 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][51] Core Insights - In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 26.4% and 26.7% [41][45] - The lithium battery index has shown strong performance, with a 5.27% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.65 percentage points [4][13] - The solid-state battery industrialization process is accelerating, leading to structural incremental demand for materials and equipment in the industry chain [45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of July 10, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 6.69% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.78 percentage points [4][13] - The lithium battery industry chain has seen price fluctuations, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 63,400 CNY/ton, up 2.92% in the last two weeks [26][24] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of July 10, 2025, the prices of lithium carbonate and nickel have increased, while lithium hydroxide and cobalt have decreased [24][27] - The average price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 63,100 CNY/ton, down 1.25% in the last two weeks [26][27] Industry News - The China Automotive Association reported that in June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate that has slowed compared to previous months [41][45] - The global energy storage battery shipment volume for the first half of 2025 ranked the top ten companies, including CATL and EVE Energy [41] Company Announcements - Companies such as CATL and EVE Energy are focusing on solid-state battery materials and production capabilities, with significant advancements in their respective technologies [46][48] - Enjie Co., Ltd. has reported expected losses for the first half of 2025 due to declining profit margins in lithium battery separators [44] Weekly Insights - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that have technological and production advantages in solid-state electrolytes and new electrode materials [45][46]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the lithium battery industry [1][5]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown significant growth, with the index rising 15.16% in June 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 2.18% [5][9]. - In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.69% and a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [5][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and developments in solid-state battery technology [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The lithium battery index and new energy vehicle index both outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in June 2025 [5][9]. - A total of 98 stocks in the lithium battery sector rose, with an average increase of 11.19% [9][11]. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In June 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China accounted for 45.76% of total vehicle sales, marking a historical high for the month [16]. - The report projects continued growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by favorable policies and improved cost-performance ratios [16][20]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights significant partnerships and developments in the industry, including LG Energy Solution's supply agreement with Chery Automobile for cylindrical batteries [55]. - Xiaomi's plans for electric vehicle production and the establishment of a new factory are also noted, indicating a growing interest in the electric vehicle market [55][58].

Battery Industry - In the first half of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 986.47 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.29% [1] - The top 10 companies in lithium battery production include CATL, BYD, LG, Zhongchuang Xinhang, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, Ruipu Lanjun, Xiamen Haicheng, Samsung SDI, and Hive Energy [1] Energy Storage - Global energy storage battery production in the first half of 2025 was 258 GWh, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 106% [2] - The leading companies in energy storage battery production are CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Haicheng Storage, BYD, Zhongchuang Xinhang, Ruipu Lanjun, Guoxuan High-Tech, Envision Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, and Chuangneng New Energy [2] Lithium Iron Phosphate - Global lithium iron phosphate production in the first half of 2025 reached 163.2 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 66.6% [3] - The top 10 companies in lithium iron phosphate production include Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, Youshan Technology, Fulian Shenghua, Guoxuan High-Tech, Changzhou Lithium Source, Anda Technology, Taifeng First, and Dandeng Technology [3] NCM Materials - Domestic NCM (Nickel Cobalt Manganese) material production in the first half of 2025 was 32.1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [4] - The top 5 companies in NCM material production are Nantong Ruixiang, Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Bamo, Guangdong Bangpu, and Dandeng Technology [5] NCM Precursor - Domestic NCM precursor production in the first half of 2025 was 40.0 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [8] - The top 5 companies in NCM precursor production include Hunan Bangpu, Zhongwei Co., Huayou Cobalt, Lanzhou Jintong, and Greeenmei [8] Lithium Manganese Oxide - Domestic lithium manganese oxide shipments in the first half of 2025 reached 6.4 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [9] Lithium Cobalt Oxide - Domestic lithium cobalt oxide production in the first half of 2025 was 5.37 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [10] - The top 5 companies in lithium cobalt oxide production are Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, Tianjin Bamo, BASF Shanshan, Tianjin Mengguli, and Keheng Co. [11] Anode Materials - Domestic anode material production in the first half of 2025 reached 128.1 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 34.56% [12] - The top 12 companies in anode material production include Betterray, Shanghai Shanshan, Shangtai Technology, Zhongke Xingcheng, Guangdong Kaijin, Jiangxi Zicheng, Hebei Kuntian, Carbon One New Energy, Xiangfenghua, Guangdong Dongdao, Jinhui Energy, and Huiyang New Energy [12] Electrolytes - Domestic electrolyte production in the first half of 2025 was 941,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.57%; global production reached 1,005,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 46.71% [13] - The top 6 companies in electrolyte production are Tianci Materials, BYD, New Zobon, Zhuhai Saiwei, Xianghe Kunlun, and Shida Shenghua [14] Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Global lithium hexafluorophosphate production in the first half of 2025 reached 125,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 38% [15] - The top 5 companies in lithium hexafluorophosphate production are Tianci Materials, Duofluor, New Tai New Materials, Jiangxi Shilei, and Zhejiang Yongtai [16] Separators - Domestic separator production in the first half of 2025 was 13.62 billion square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49%; wet-process separator production was 11.18 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 60%; dry-process separator production was 2.43 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [17] - The top 5 companies in wet-process separator production are Enjie Co., Jinli New Energy, China National Materials, Xingyuan Material, and Housheng New Energy [18] - The top 3 companies in dry-process separator production are Xingyuan Material, Zhongxing New Materials, and Huqiang New Energy [19] Copper Foil - Domestic lithium battery copper foil production in the first half of 2025 was 466,900 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 30.4% [20] - The top 5 companies in copper foil production are Longdian Huaxin, Defu Technology, Huachuang New Materials, Jiayuan Technology, and Nord Co. [20] Aluminum Foil - Domestic battery aluminum foil production in the first half of 2025 was 228,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.9% [21] - The top 5 companies in aluminum foil production are Dingsheng New Materials, North Aluminum, Shenlong Baoding, Anhui Jinyu, and Nannan Aluminum Foil [21] Sodium Batteries - Domestic sodium-ion battery production in the first half of 2025 was 2.1 GWh [22] - The top 5 companies in sodium-ion battery production are CATL, Zhongke Haina, BYD, Haishida, and Weike Technology [23] Sodium Battery Cathode - Domestic sodium-ion battery cathode material production in the first half of 2025 was 720 tons [24] - The top 5 companies in sodium battery cathode production include Jiana New Energy, Zhongke Haina, Wanrun New Energy, Yingna New Energy, and Dandeng Technology, with polyionic cathode materials accounting for 69.18%, layered oxide cathode materials for 28%, and Prussian blue/white cathode materials for 2.79% [25]

Group 1 - Li Daxiao suggests that the Chinese stock market may enter a "short squeeze bull market," indicating a strong upward movement driven by major funds [3] - Recent market performance shows the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, with significant net inflows from northbound funds, particularly in growth sectors like batteries and semiconductors [3] - The total market turnover has exceeded 1.5 trillion, indicating a recovery in trading volume, although it still falls short of the 1.6 trillion needed for a stable 3500 points [3] Group 2 - The policy environment is supportive, with a financial "combination punch" targeting consumption and technology sectors, particularly benefiting commercial real estate and lithium battery industries [3] - The establishment of a "Chinese version of a stabilizing fund" with an 800 billion yuan quota from the central bank is seen as a safety net for the market [3] - Historical context suggests that short squeeze markets can rise quickly but may also decline rapidly, highlighting the need for caution among investors [4] Group 3 - Three investment directions are recommended for medium to long-term investors: consumption upgrade sectors, technology growth stocks with a focus on fundamentals, and high-dividend blue-chip stocks [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the A-share market is approaching historical averages, with some technology stocks, like Nvidia, showing high valuations that warrant caution [4] - The overall economic recovery remains fragile, and the ability of corporate earnings to keep pace with market movements is crucial [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small, and the volatile pattern may continue [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts of lithium carbonate increased, with the 2509 contract closing at 64,400 and the 2511 contract at 64,080. The trading volume and open interest of the 2509 contract decreased, while the trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased and the open interest increased slightly. The warehouse receipt volume was 13,281 hands, showing a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The basis between spot and futures contracts showed different changes. For example, the spot - 2509 was - 1,100, and the 2509 - 2511 was 320 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [1]. - **Industry Chain Consumption - related Data**: The prices of some materials such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable or decreasing [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price and Production Data**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,485 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 266 yuan/ton. The weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,813 tons, an increase of 690 tons from the previous week, and the industry inventory was 140,793 tons, an increase of 2,446 tons from the previous week [2]. - **European Union Policy**: The EU will allocate 852 million euros (about 7.16 billion yuan) to develop electric vehicle batteries, which is part of the "IF24 Battery" plan. The selected projects are expected to be put into operation before 2030, reducing about 91 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions and achieving an annual production capacity of about 56 GWh of electric vehicle battery cells [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electric new energy industry, particularly focusing on the electric vehicle (EV), wind power, and energy storage sectors for the year 2025 [1][4][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Electric Vehicle Market Growth**: The domestic passenger car market is expected to grow by 40% in 2025, while the European power market is projected to grow by approximately 20%. The overall demand in the energy storage market is anticipated to increase by nearly 30% [1][4]. - **Wind Power Development**: Domestic offshore wind power projects are expected to reach an installation scale of around 10GW in 2025, with over 30GW of reserve projects ensuring high growth. The overseas market is stable at 4-5GW annually, with expectations to reach 10GW by 2026 [1][5]. - **Energy Storage Sector Outlook**: The energy storage industry is expected to perform well in the second half of 2025, with new technological advancements and policy support likely to address supply-demand imbalances. Data from January to May indicates a total of 32GWh, with projections for the first half of the year to reach 40-50GWh [1][8][10]. Notable Companies and Performance - Companies such as Daikin and New Strong Union are highlighted for their strong performance. Tian Shun and Hai Li are noted for their potential turnaround, while Lu Feng shows promising profitability improvement. Hai Feng is recognized for its robust performance, with a recommendation for higher weight in investment [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Telecom Industry Strategy**: The mid-term strategy for the telecom industry in 2025 focuses on three main directions: theme continuation, bottom reversal, and exploring new directions, particularly in lithium batteries, wind power storage, and power equipment [2]. - **AI and Robotics Investment Opportunities**: The AI and robotics sectors are identified as significant future investment opportunities, impacting traditional industries and creating new application scenarios [6][17]. - **Seasonal Market Changes**: The market experiences seasonal variations that can affect stock prices, with expectations for new technology catalysts, such as solid-state battery technology, to influence market dynamics [13]. - **Solar Industry Challenges**: The solar industry is facing challenges with a basic structure showing signs of bottoming out after seven consecutive quarters of losses. New technologies and policy support are crucial for recovery [14][16]. Conclusion - The electric new energy industry is poised for significant growth in 2025, driven by advancements in electric vehicles, wind power, and energy storage. Companies demonstrating strong performance and potential for recovery are highlighted as key investment opportunities. The integration of AI and robotics is expected to further enhance industry dynamics, while the solar sector faces challenges that require strategic adjustments.

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen a surge in Chinese companies going global, transitioning from "manufacturing exports" to "intelligent manufacturing exports" and from "single operations" to "industry chain collaboration" [1][2] - A total of 3,667 A-share listed companies disclosed overseas business income in 2024, accounting for 68% of A-share companies, with total overseas income reaching 9.52 trillion yuan, a 56.58% increase from 2020 [2] - Manufacturing companies have shown remarkable performance, with overseas income reaching 6.39 trillion yuan in 2024, a 75.42% increase from 2020 [2] Industry Performance - The new growth drivers in foreign trade include new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, with companies like Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile seeing over 600% growth in overseas income compared to 2020 [3] - CATL's overseas income reached 110.34 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 14 times since 2020, with significant investments in Indonesia [3] - The engineering machinery sector has seen overseas income share rise from 11.38% in 2020 to 47.48% in 2024, with major companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion contributing over half of their revenue from overseas [3] Strategic Trends - The trend of "industrial chain going overseas" and "ecosystem going overseas" has become prominent, with leading companies enhancing efficiency by leveraging their chain advantages [4] - ASEAN has become China's largest export market, with significant investments in production capacity in Southeast Asia, such as Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle base in Thailand [4] - Latin America is emerging as a new growth area, with companies like BYD and Linglong Tire making substantial investments in Brazil [5] Cross-Border M&A Activity - Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have seen a resurgence, with 216 disclosed cases in 2024, a 32.52% increase year-on-year, marking a five-year high [6] - M&A activities are categorized into three types: acquiring overseas brands, core technology acquisition, and channel acquisition, with significant examples in advanced manufacturing and biomedicine [6] Capital Market Developments - In 2025, leading companies in hard technology are accelerating their overseas strategies, with over 50 A-share companies announcing plans to list in Hong Kong [7] - Notable companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine have successfully listed in Hong Kong, with CATL raising 35.3 billion HKD, the largest IPO globally for the year [7] Future Outlook - Industry experts express optimism about the future of Chinese companies going global, highlighting opportunities in green exports, capacity expansion, and infrastructure projects [10] - The focus on protecting national security and intellectual property while targeting high-end markets is emphasized for companies in high-tech sectors [10]