证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 -30% -22% -14% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 34% 42% 50% 芯联集成 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 l 投资建议： 我们预计公司 2025/2026/2027 年营收分别为 81.0/101.0/126.6 亿元，归母净利润分别为-6.1/0.5/6.0 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 | 最新收盘价（元） | 6.46 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）83.83 | / 44.30 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）542 | / 286 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 7.34 / 4.17 | | 资产负债率(%) | 41.7% | | 市盈率 | -46.14 | | 绍兴市越城区集成电路 | | | 第一大股东 | 产业基金合伙企业(有 | | 限合伙) | | 研究所 分析师:万玮 SAC 登记编号:S1340525030001 Email:wanw ...

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump indicated a potential consideration for lowering certain U.S. tariffs on goods while reaffirming that broad import taxes are attracting investments and revitalizing long-struggling industries such as automotive and semiconductor manufacturing [1][2]. Tariff Adjustments - Trump mentioned that he might lower "some" tariffs while also suggesting that he would increase tariffs on others, particularly in response to voter concerns about high grocery prices [1][2]. - Recent tariff reductions approved by Trump were described as "insignificant exceptions" and not substantial [2]. Investment and Economic Impact - Trump claimed that there is an influx of $18 trillion into the U.S., referring to investment commitments from companies and countries seeking tariff reductions [2]. - He stated that due to tariffs, all automotive companies are returning to the U.S., highlighting a significant victory with the government's investment in Intel earlier this year, which he claimed resulted in a profit of $40 billion in about ten minutes [2].

Core Insights - The capital influx into AI infrastructure is far from peaking, with major tech giants competing aggressively, benefiting "picks and shovels" suppliers like chip manufacturers and energy producers [2][3] - AI-related capital expenditures are surging without signs of slowing down, driving significant market rebounds despite investor skepticism about sustainability [2][3] - Nvidia's GPU chips are central to the AI revolution, briefly making it the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, sparking discussions about an AI bubble [2] - Major companies like Amazon and Meta are allocating budgets of hundreds of billions annually for AI-related investments, indicating a long-term procurement trend across the tech industry [3] Industry Trends - The demand for electricity from data centers is expected to double by 2030, driven by large-scale, enterprise-level, and cryptocurrency mining facilities [3] - Leading tech companies are just beginning to tap into capital markets for the next phase of AI expansion, suggesting more capital is on the way [3] - The competitive mindset among major tech firms drives accelerated spending, even at the risk of over-investment, as they strive to avoid being outpaced in the market [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in chip manufacturing, energy production, and copper wire manufacturing are expected to see positive surprises that could drive stock prices up in the coming year [4]

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade import and export value reached 41.21 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In November, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding significantly from a decline of 1.1% in October, indicating a recovery to normal levels in the second half of the year [1][2] - The increase in exports is attributed to three main factors: a lower base from the previous year, a rebound in global trade, and accelerated growth in exports of chips and automobiles driven by domestic manufacturing upgrades and global AI investment [2][3] - Private enterprises have shown strong growth in imports and exports, with a total of 23.52 trillion yuan in trade, representing a 7.1% increase and accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [2] Group 2: Import Trends - In November, imports increased by 1.9%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, supported by a lower base from last year [4] - The rebound in exports has a direct positive impact on import growth, reflecting China's "large import and export" characteristics [4] - Future import growth may be supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government bond limits for project construction [4] Group 3: Sector Contributions - Mechanical and electrical products, along with high-tech products, continue to play a crucial role in China's export stability, with mechanical and electrical product exports reaching $205.9 billion in November, growing by 9.65% [3] - High-tech product exports exceeded $88.1 billion in November, with a growth rate of 7.68%, indicating a significant contribution to overall export performance [3]

在实验中，研究团队尝试利用声波"抓取"人体血栓或培养皿中的微小细胞，但传统IDT产生的平面声波 只能推动目标在平面内移动，难以实现空间操控。为此，需要构建能在微尺度上完成复杂运动和精细操 作的"声学手指"，以实现微小目标的精准操控。 研究团队还开发了多种新型片上器件方案，可在不同尺度和功率下运行，并生成不同能量分布的声波。 通过相位编码调控，这些器件能以前所未有的方式对声波进行倾斜、弯曲和耦合。最终，这一整套机制 被集成在单一电子芯片上，形成一体化声波操控平台。实验结果显示，该平台产生的声波能量束在传播 距离和能量集中度方面均优于传统IDT。 美国弗吉尼亚理工大学研究团队在片上声波操控领域取得新进展。他们研制出一种新型可编程声波芯 片，可在电子芯片上对流体和颗粒等微小目标进行灵活精准操控。该技术拓展了医学和工程领域的应用 前景，有望应用于非侵入性手术或体外血液成分分离。相关研究成果发表于最新一期《自然·通讯》杂 志。 该技术的核心优势在于"适应性"。团队能精确控制声波的能量传播方式，使其适用于不同需求，如声波 路径引导、流体和颗粒操控。这项成果不仅开创了可编程片上声波操控的新方法，也为未来在微纳制 造、半导体 ...

五年来，山东加力突破创新壁垒，发展动能竞相奔涌释放。规上工业企业研发机构覆盖率从2020年 13.3%提升至现在的近40%，创建国家制造业创新中心4家、工业设计中心54家，数量均居全国前列。引 育泰山产业领军人才730名，培育人才引领型企业60家。累计培育推广"四首"新产品4700余项，高热效 率柴油机、"山河号"智能盾构机、8K画质处理芯片等一批打破国外垄断、填补国内空白的重大技术实 现突破，C919大飞机、"蓝鲸一号"等国之重器都有"山东制造"的贡献。 发展人工智能是实现新型工业化的必答题。山东一手抓好产业培育、一手抓好赋能应用，2025年， 全省人工智能核心产业营收预计突破1200亿元，占全国10%左右，正加快构建起从智能算力、数据语 料、模型算法到智能应用的全栈式人工智能产业链。其中，纳入全省重点监测范围的大模型企业已达 170家、大模型产品249个，29个生成式大模型通过人工智能服务备案，预计今年完成大模型业务收入60 亿元。（记者 付玉婷） "十四五"山东工业增加值将由2.3万亿元提升至3.3万亿元 省政府新闻办12月8日召开新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期山东加快建设先进制造业强省相关情 况。"十 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market rose on Monday due to investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this week [1][11]. Market Performance - The KOSPI index increased by 54.80 points or 1.34%, closing at 4154.85 points [2][12]. - The KOSPI index has risen 73.16% year-to-date [9]. Investor Sentiment - There is an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting [3][13]. - Lower U.S. interest rates are expected to boost global risk appetite, making emerging markets, including South Korea, more attractive for investors [4][14]. Key Stocks Movement - Major stocks saw significant movements: - Samsung Electronics rose by 1.01% - SK Hynix increased by 6.07% - LG Energy Solution surged nearly 6% after winning a $1.4 billion order from Mercedes-Benz for electric vehicle batteries [4][6][14]. - Other notable movements include: - Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors rose by 0.16% and 1.62% respectively - POSCO Holdings increased by 2.57% - Samsung Biologics fell by 0.73% [4][15]. Foreign Investment - Foreign investors net bought 3.21335 trillion KRW in the KOSPI [7][15]. Currency and Bond Market - The Korean won strengthened against the U.S. dollar, closing at 1466.9, up 0.44% from the previous day [8][15]. - The yield on the three-year government bond rose to 3.037%, while the ten-year bond yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 3.399% [10][15].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. has been focused on China's rare earths but has overlooked the greater threat posed by China's dominance in lithium batteries, mature process chips, and pharmaceutical raw materials [1] Group 2 - In the lithium battery sector, China has established a near monopoly over the entire supply chain, with major companies like CATL and BYD leading the market [2][5] - By 2025, three out of the top five battery manufacturers globally will be Chinese, with China producing 79% of cathode materials, 92% of anode materials, 98% of refined graphite, 80% of refined cobalt, and 63% of lithium chemical products [5] - This dominance is attributed to strategic government policies since 2015, including substantial subsidies and requirements for local automakers to use domestic batteries [6] Group 3 - In the mature chip sector, China controls about one-third of the global production capacity for chips above 28 nanometers, which are critical for automotive, home appliances, and defense equipment [7][8] - China also holds 99% of the global gallium supply and a significant portion of germanium, with recent export licensing requirements impacting U.S. companies [8] Group 4 - The pharmaceutical sector is heavily reliant on Chinese raw materials, with over 80% of active pharmaceutical ingredients in common medications like Tylenol and Advil imported from China [9] - This creates a hidden supply chain dependency between China, India, and the U.S., where American consumers are largely unaware of their reliance on Chinese pharmaceutical inputs [9][13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that even if China's manufacturing sector stagnates for the next twenty years, the U.S. is unlikely to catch up to China's overall manufacturing capacity and industrial system advantages [1] Manufacturing Scale and Economic Comparison - In 2024, China's manufacturing value added is projected to reach $4.7 trillion, accounting for approximately 25% of its GDP, while the U.S. manufacturing scale is about $2.9 trillion, making up around 10% of its GDP [1] - When calculated using purchasing power parity (PPP), China's overall economic scale is $33.6 trillion, significantly higher than the U.S. at $25.7 trillion [1] - China's actual manufacturing output is estimated at $8.4 trillion, which is more than three times the U.S. output of $2.6 trillion [1] Structural Advantages - China's manufacturing density is characterized by a highly concentrated industrial chain, allowing for rapid production and assembly of components within close proximity [2][1] - The U.S. has a low-density, high-cost, and fragmented industrial ecosystem, making it difficult to replicate China's structural advantages [2] U.S. Economic Structure - The U.S. economy has become deeply financialized and service-oriented, with major tech brands like Apple and NVIDIA outsourcing hardware production to Asia [3] - U.S. companies have focused on design, branding, and software ecosystems, leading to a strategic offshoring of manufacturing, which has resulted in a decline in domestic manufacturing capabilities [4] Policy Challenges in U.S. Manufacturing - Recent U.S. policies aimed at bringing manufacturing back, such as the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act, face contradictions and challenges [5] - The U.S. government offers subsidies to attract companies like TSMC to set up factories while simultaneously imposing tariffs on key equipment and components [5] - Political instability and changes in administration hinder the continuity of industrial policies, complicating long-term investment decisions in manufacturing [5] China's Strategic Positioning - China maintains a clear and stable strategic positioning for its manufacturing sector, with consistent policy direction [6] - In response to U.S. technology restrictions, China is rapidly advancing its self-sufficiency in key technologies and components [6] - China employs asymmetric measures, such as rare earth export controls, to counter external pressures [8] Market Dynamics and Case Studies - China has the world's largest single consumer market, providing a complete market loop for domestic companies to innovate and scale [8] - Companies like BYD and CATL have rapidly grown due to the substantial domestic demand for electric vehicles and batteries, respectively [9] Conclusion on Manufacturing Ecosystem - The article concludes that while the U.S. may maintain a lead in specific advanced technology areas, China has established a formidable moat in the breadth, depth, and resilience of its overall manufacturing ecosystem [10] - A significant national-level re-industrialization revolution would be required for the U.S. to bridge the gap with China, which seems unlikely under the current political and social structures [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing price increases across the semiconductor supply chain, driven by rising raw material costs and surging demand from AI applications, leading to a widespread tightening of supply and price hikes across various components [3][4][6]. Group 1: Price Increases in PCB and Wafer Manufacturing - The price increase trend has spread to the PCB industry, with major players like 建滔 and 南亚 raising prices by 5% to 10% and 8% respectively due to rising raw material costs [8][9]. - TSMC has announced price hikes for advanced process nodes, with increases expected to be in the range of 8% to 10% starting in 2026, and potentially up to 50% for 2nm wafers [12][11]. Group 2: Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is experiencing significant price increases, with DRAM and NAND prices rising by 20% to 30% due to AI demand and supply constraints [15][19]. - Major manufacturers like 三星 and SK海力士 have suspended pricing for certain products, indicating a tightening supply situation [17][18]. - Flash memory prices have surged, with companies like 闪迪 announcing a 50% increase in NAND flash contract prices [21]. Group 3: Passive Components Price Adjustments - Passive component manufacturers are also raising prices, with increases driven by raw material costs and heightened demand from AI applications [32][33]. - Companies like 国巨 and 风华高科 have issued price hikes for various components, with increases ranging from 5% to 30% [35][36]. Group 4: Power Devices and Other Components - The power semiconductor market is seeing price increases, particularly following the 安世事件, which has led to a surge in demand for alternative products [42][44]. - 华润微 has confirmed price increases for certain IGBT products, citing rising raw material costs and strong order performance as key factors [45]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor market remains optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases and strong demand driven by AI and other emerging technologies [26][27][28]. - The storage market is anticipated to maintain a tight supply situation, with companies like 兆易创新 predicting further price increases in the coming quarters [23].