点击 关注我们 报告发布日期：2025年3月20日 报告名称:《LCD行业月报- 预计3月LCD TV面板价格延续增长 》 分析师：胡剑 S0980521080001/胡慧 S0980521080002/ 叶 子 S0980522100003 / 詹浏洋 S0980524060001 / 张大为 S0980524100002/李书颖S0980522100003 联系人：连欣然 完整报告请扫描下方二维码 国信研究 LCD行业月报-预计3月LCD TV面板价格延 续揭长 2025-03-20 | 胡剑 胡慧 叶子 张大为 连欣然 行情&业绩回顾：2025年2月至今面板(申万)指数 上涨2.24%,3Q24中国主要LCD厂商平均毛利率同环比下 滑行情回顾:2025年2月至今面板(申万)指数上涨2.24% ，跑输上证指数、深证成指、沪深300指数1.09pct、3.4 8pct、0.24pct;其中深天马A、龙腾光电分别上涨1.07% 、1.35%，京东方A、TCL科技、彩虹股份分别下跌3.36 %、6.39%、8.14%。估值方面,截至3月13日A股面板行 业总市值5624.67亿元,整体PB (LF) 为1.61 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [3][41]. Core Insights - The domestic electronic industry experienced a slight decline of 0.62% last week, with a valuation percentile of 80% over the past 10 years, indicating strong domestic performance compared to overseas semiconductor indices [3][8]. - Notable individual stocks that performed well include Shenghong Technology, Litong Electronics, Nanya New Materials, and Jianghai Co., which have gained market recognition [3][8]. - The semiconductor sector saw a year-on-year export growth of 11.91% in the first two months of 2025, with the top ten wafer foundries expected to achieve record revenues in Q4 2024 [4][26]. Industry Data Tracking - The DRAM market is showing signs of recovery, particularly for DDR5 products, with SK Hynix experiencing strong demand and prices rising to $4.95 per unit [10]. - The eMMC market is also seeing steady price increases, driven by strong demand despite limited transaction volumes [11]. - China's integrated circuit exports reached $25.104 billion, reflecting a significant increase in trade activity [26]. Key Industry News - The smartphone production is expected to increase by 9.2% in Q4 2024, driven by Apple's production peak and consumer subsidies in China [30]. - The PC market in mainland China is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, following a rebound in Q4 2024 [30]. - The panel market is facing potential price increases due to U.S. tariff policies, which may affect future pricing strategies [32]. Company Announcements - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit increase of 272.12% to 367.54% for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [34]. - The company Xinyuan Micro plans to acquire Aisheng for its display driver chips and related technologies [40]. - Huahai Chengke is set to acquire a 70% stake in Hengsuohuawei, a semiconductor packaging materials company, for 1.12 billion yuan [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [3][41]. Core Insights - The domestic electronic industry experienced a slight decline of 0.62% last week, with a valuation percentile of 80% over the past 10 years, indicating strong relative performance compared to overseas semiconductor indices [3][8]. - Notable individual stocks that performed well include Shenghong Technology, Litong Electronics, Nanya New Materials, and Jianghai Co., which have gained market recognition [3][8]. - The semiconductor sector saw a year-on-year export growth of 11.91% in the first two months of 2025, with the top ten wafer foundries expected to achieve record revenues in Q4 2024 [4][26]. - The smartphone production is projected to increase by 9.2% in Q4 2024, driven by Apple's production peak and subsidy policies in China [5][30]. - The report highlights the upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference as a significant event for monitoring technological advancements in AI and semiconductor sectors [41]. Industry Data Tracking - The DRAM market is showing signs of recovery, particularly for DDR5 products, with prices rising due to strong demand [10][11]. - The eMMC market is also experiencing steady price increases, although transaction volumes have not significantly surged [11]. - China's integrated circuit exports reached $25.1 billion in the first two months of 2025, marking an 11.91% increase year-on-year [26]. - The PC market in mainland China is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, following a rebound in Q4 2024 [30]. Key Industry News - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a significant increase in demand, with the top ten foundries projected to generate $38.48 billion in revenue in Q4 2024, a nearly 10% increase from the previous quarter [26][29]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to see a modest increase in smartphone production in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 1.5% [30]. - The panel market is facing potential price increases due to tariff adjustments, which may affect procurement strategies [32]. Company Announcements - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit increase of 272.12% to 367.54% for Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year [34]. - The company Xinyuan Micro plans to acquire Aisheng Technology, which specializes in display driver chips and related products [40]. - Huahai Chengke is set to acquire a 70% stake in Hengsu Huawai, a leading semiconductor packaging materials company, for 1.12 billion yuan [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The storage manufacturers have announced price increases, indicating a potential rebound in storage prices. Sandisk plans to raise prices by over 10% starting April 1, 2025, reflecting the upward trend in NAND Flash wafer prices due to supply constraints and reduced inventory [9] - The mismatch in supply and demand is identified as a primary reason for the price increase in storage. Major manufacturers like Micron and Samsung are reducing production, with Micron expecting a decline in NAND shipments in Q2 2025 and Samsung cutting its supply by 10%-15% [9] - The demand for storage is surging due to increased capital expenditures in AI, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft projected to spend a total of $297.2 billion in 2025, a 36.8% increase year-on-year [9] - The widening supply-demand gap in the storage market is expected to reverse previous pessimistic forecasts, potentially leading to a new investment cycle in the storage sector [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry index decreased by 0.62% in the week of March 10-14, 2025, ranking among the bottom three sectors [12] - The semiconductor sector saw a decline of 2.11%, while the components sector experienced the highest increase of 6.68% [14] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is undergoing significant changes, including the appointment of a new CEO at Intel and the rise of Northern Huachuang to the sixth position among global semiconductor equipment suppliers [32][39] - Northern Huachuang is the only Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturer in the top ten, with a projected 39.4% growth in sales for 2024 [39] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on the semiconductor industry, with U.S. tariffs prompting companies to relocate manufacturing to the U.S. [35] Consumer Electronics - Apple faces challenges in the Chinese market, with a projected 2% decline in iPhone sales in 2025 and a significant drop of 31.7% in wireless earphone sales [52][55] - The report notes that Apple is losing market share to domestic brands like Xiaomi and Huawei, which offer more affordable alternatives [55] Automotive Electronics - Global automotive sales increased by 49% in February 2025, reaching 1.2 million units, despite challenges posed by EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [60] - NIO has implemented a 10% workforce reduction, reflecting broader trends in the automotive sector [63]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The economic index for the entire industry continued to rise in February, indicating an improvement in the economic climate[1] - Key areas of improvement include midstream manufacturing, consumer goods, and certain cyclical products[1] - The real estate chain is recovering with a 32% year-on-year increase in housing sales in 30 major cities in February[4] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Significant improvement in midstream manufacturing, driven by demand in sectors like construction machinery, automation, and specialized equipment[2] - Excavator sales in January-February increased by 27.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand[2] - Prices for photovoltaic materials and battery components have rebounded, suggesting a recovery in supply-demand dynamics[2] Group 3: Consumer Demand - Domestic consumption is showing signs of recovery, particularly in dairy products and travel services, benefiting from the Spring Festival[3] - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation in February showed positive year-on-year growth, reflecting improved demand[3] - The price decline for milk has narrowed, indicating a potential price recovery in consumer goods[3] Group 4: Price Trends in Cyclical Products - Precious metals prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold prices increasing year-on-year[4] - Energy metals like cobalt and nickel are experiencing price strength, while lithium resources are showing short-term weakness[4] - Chemical products such as PVC and urea have seen price improvements, indicating a positive trend in the chemical sector[4] Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Risks include the possibility of domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations and external demand not meeting projections[6] - There is a potential risk of model failure, which could impact forecasts and investment strategies[6]

Core Viewpoint - The global LCD panel industry is undergoing significant changes due to capacity expansion, technological iteration, and supply chain restructuring, with Chinese manufacturers like BOE and TCL Huaxing emerging as dominant players, reshaping the global landscape [1] Group 1: Industry Capacity and Market Share - Chinese panel manufacturers have increased their capacity share from 20% in 2016 to over 60% in 2024, and it is expected to exceed 70% by 2025 [1] - In the TV and monitor panel sectors, Chinese manufacturers account for over 60% of shipments, with a significant lead in the large-size market [1] - The market share of Chinese panel companies in the notebook panel segment is currently at 50%, indicating ongoing expansion that pressures South Korean and Taiwanese manufacturers [1] Group 2: Television Panel Market Dynamics - The demand for television panels is expected to remain stable, with 2024 TV shipments projected at approximately 197.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 1.2% [3] - Domestic brands like TCL and Hisense are rising in global rankings, now positioned as the second and third largest TV brands [4] - The average size of TV panels is projected to increase from 51.5 inches in 2024 to 52.2 inches in 2025, driven by growing demand for larger panels [5] Group 3: Production Strategies and Supply Chain - The importance of production control strategies is highlighted, especially in response to demand fluctuations, with a focus on maintaining supply-demand balance [6] - The average utilization rate of the industry is volatile, necessitating adjustments in production capacity to stabilize supply and demand [6] - Domestic companies are increasingly taking over the polarized film market as Japanese manufacturers exit, indicating a shift in the supply chain [9][10] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - The market is witnessing significant consolidation, with LG Display's transfer of its Guangzhou factory to TCL Huaxing expected to drastically reduce LG's panel shipments while boosting TCL's [7] - Potential acquisition targets include the 8.6-generation line of Xi'an Rainbow Optoelectronics and Sharp's 10.5-generation line, which could enhance market concentration and bargaining power [8] Group 5: Overseas Expansion and New Technologies - Major panel manufacturers are expanding overseas production capacities in countries like Vietnam and Thailand to diversify supply chains and mitigate risks [12][14] - Chinese manufacturers are investing in new technologies, including Mini LED and OLED, to enhance their competitive edge in the market [18] - The industry is expected to focus on five core areas: production control, consolidation, domestic component supply chain enhancement, overseas capacity expansion, and new display technologies [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents the revenue performance of six Taiwanese panel manufacturers for February 2025, highlighting significant year-on-year growth across the board, indicating a positive trend in the display panel industry. Group 1: Company Revenue Performance - AU Optronics reported a revenue of NT$246.06 billion (approximately RMB 54.31 billion) for February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.07% [1][2][3] - Innolux Corporation announced a revenue of NT$185.04 billion (approximately RMB 40.84 billion) for February 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 33.44% [4][5][6] - HannStar Display Corporation's revenue for February 2025 was NT$9.55 billion (approximately RMB 2.11 billion), showing a year-on-year increase of 26.32% [8][9][10] - Lianjian Technology reported a revenue of NT$6.97 billion (approximately RMB 1.54 billion) for February 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.84% [12][13][14] - Ralco Technology's revenue for February 2025 was NT$2.03 billion (approximately RMB 0.45 billion), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.11% [15][16][17] - Hualing Optoelectronics reported a revenue of NT$1.57 billion (approximately RMB 0.35 billion) for February 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 35.36% [18][19][20] Group 2: Cumulative Revenue Performance - AU Optronics' cumulative revenue for 2025 reached approximately NT$462.49 billion (around RMB 102.07 billion), marking a year-on-year increase of 20.84% [2] - Innolux Corporation's cumulative revenue for 2025 was approximately NT$371.67 billion (around RMB 82.03 billion), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.39% [6] - HannStar Display Corporation's cumulative revenue for 2025 was approximately NT$18.98 billion (around RMB 4.19 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 9.44% [10] - Lianjian Technology's cumulative revenue for 2025 was approximately NT$13.46 billion (around RMB 2.97 billion), showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.55% [13] - Ralco Technology's cumulative revenue for 2025 was approximately NT$3.93 billion (around RMB 0.87 billion), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [16] - Hualing Optoelectronics' cumulative revenue for 2025 was approximately NT$3.46 billion (around RMB 0.76 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 15.17% [19]

Core Viewpoint - The latest TrendForce report predicts an increase in prices for TV and monitor panels in March 2025, while notebook panel prices are expected to remain stable [1]. Group 1: TV Panels - The average price for 65-inch TV panels is expected to be $177, an increase of $1 or 0.6% from the previous month [2]. - The average price for 55-inch TV panels is projected to be $127, reflecting a $1 increase or 0.8% growth [3]. - The average price for 43-inch TV panels is anticipated to reach $66, up by $1 or 1.5% [4]. - The average price for 32-inch TV panels is expected to be $36, increasing by $0.5 or 1.4% [5]. Group 2: Monitor Panels - The average price for 27-inch IPS monitor panels is projected to be $62.7, with a $0.1 increase or 0.2% growth [8]. - The average price for 23.8-inch IPS monitor panels is expected to be $49.4, reflecting a $0.2 increase or 0.4% growth [8]. Group 3: Notebook Panels - Prices for 17.3-inch TN notebook panels are expected to remain stable at $38.3, with a projected range of $37.7 to $39.8 [9]. - The average price for 15.6-inch Value IPS notebook panels is expected to remain unchanged at $40.3, with a range of $38.6 to $41.9 [10]. - Prices for 14.0-inch TN notebook panels are projected to stay at $26.9, with a range of $26.4 to $28.1 [11]. - The average price for 11.6-inch TN notebook panels is expected to remain at $25.1, with a range of $24.2 to $26.5 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cai Jing, reported a significant net loss of 5.325 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 1.177 billion RMB) for the year 2024, primarily due to low yield rates during the initial mass production of its new environmentally friendly display paper and increased development costs [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 of the previous year, Cai Jing's consolidated revenue was 2.864 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 633 million RMB), representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.98%. However, the company incurred an operating loss of 1.444 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 319 million RMB) and a net loss of 1.538 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 340 million RMB) [2]. - For the full year of 2024, Cai Jing's consolidated revenue is projected to be 9.964 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 2.203 billion RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 19.34%. The gross loss margin is expected to be 36.11%, with an operating loss of 5.558 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 1.229 billion RMB) and a net loss of 5.325 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 1.177 billion RMB) [2]. Product Development and Market Strategy - Cai Jing has developed a new environmentally friendly display paper that maintains visibility in outdoor conditions and extreme temperatures, enhancing device battery life. The company has diversified its applications to include desktop displays, laptops, electronic tags, and industrial control screens [3]. - The company faced challenges with low yield rates during the initial production phase, leading to increased costs. However, improvements in production yield are expected, with a focus on mature product lines to achieve positive gross margins [3]. - The LCD panel market is currently stable, and Cai Jing is shifting its product line away from consumer products to specialized fields such as automotive and industrial control, reducing the proportion of consumer products to below 45% [3]. - The automotive display segment has seen growth, with revenue contribution increasing to 25%. Future growth is anticipated between the second half of 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The company is also targeting the market for larger central control screens, which are increasingly being replaced by LTPS panels, despite facing intense competition [4].

Core Insights - The global smartphone panel shipment is expected to reach 2.157 billion units in 2024, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in new smartphone sales and demand for second-hand and refurbished devices [1] - In 2025, smartphone panel shipments are projected to decline by 3.2% to 2.093 billion units due to stable new device demand and a slight decrease in second-hand market demand [1] Company Summaries - BOE remains the leading smartphone panel supplier, with shipments expected to reach 613 million units in 2024 and 630 million units in 2025, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year increase [2] - Samsung Display is projected to ship 378 million units in 2024, benefiting from Apple's demand for high-end AMOLED panels, but is expected to see a slight decline to 365 million units in 2025, a decrease of 3.5% [3] - HKC is maintaining its position as the third-largest supplier, with shipments expected to grow from 228 million units in 2024 to 230 million units in 2025, a 0.7% increase [4] - CSOT is closely collaborating with Xiaomi, leading to a significant growth in shipments to 215 million units in 2024, an 83.2% increase, with a slight growth forecast to 223 million units in 2025 [5] - Tianma is expected to ship 158 million units in 2024, with a projected 10% increase in 2025 due to rising demand for AMOLED panels, despite facing challenges from declining LTPS LCD demand [7] Market Trends - The demand for AMOLED panels remains strong among smartphone brands, contributing to the overall increase in shipments across major panel manufacturers, a trend expected to continue into 2025 [7] - The market share of Taiwanese a-Si LCD manufacturers is gradually shrinking due to the rapid growth of HKC and CSOT, while Japanese manufacturers are exiting the smartphone supply market [7] - Korean manufacturers maintain a competitive edge in the high-end smartphone market with flexible AMOLED technology, holding a market share of approximately 20% to 21% in 2024, while Chinese manufacturers are rapidly expanding their market share to 69.8% in 2024, potentially exceeding 70% in 2025 [7]