Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the non-automotive large-size LCD industry Core Insights - The non-automotive large-size LCD industry primarily involves the processing and manufacturing of LCDs 7 inches and above, adopting a sales-based production model with cyclical characteristics. The competition between LCD and OLED technologies is stabilizing, with LCD maintaining competitiveness in the mid-to-low-end market. In 2021, multiple replacement cycles and the surge in remote work and online education drove LCD shipments and prices to historical highs. However, the maturity of panel technology limits the price increase capability of LCDs, leading to a market entering a mature phase where shipment volume is more cyclical than growth-oriented, primarily influenced by replacement cycles and population size, with average prices expected to stabilize in line with global CPI fluctuations [4][40][43]. Industry Definition - LCDs are flat-panel display devices widely used in various electronic devices with medium to large screens. The core working principle is based on the properties of liquid crystal molecules, which control the polarization direction and light transmission by adjusting the electric field intensity. This technology allows LCDs to provide clear and stable visual effects while maintaining low energy consumption. The non-automotive large-size LCD industry is a sub-sector focused on the processing and manufacturing of LCDs 7 inches and above [5]. Industry Characteristics - The non-automotive large-size LCD industry exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, primarily driven by consumer electronics with a typical replacement cycle of 3-5 years. The demand for these products is closely linked to economic conditions and consumer price sensitivity, further enhancing the cyclical nature [16][17]. - The industry mainly adopts a sales-based production model, supported by the mature technology of LCDs, which has a short stocking cycle and low industry entry barriers, making supply unlikely to restrict industry development [18]. - The competition between LCD and OLED technologies is stabilizing, with LCD maintaining strong competitiveness in the mid-to-low-end market despite OLED's advantages in high-end applications [19]. Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream of the LCD industry chain includes liquid crystal materials, glass substrates, polarizers, and chemical materials, providing qualified components and materials to the midstream. The midstream consists of LCD panel manufacturers responsible for producing non-automotive large-size LCDs, while the downstream includes manufacturers of LCD televisions, laptops, tablets, and monitors, which are responsible for consuming and connecting with end consumers [23]. - The report highlights that the bargaining power of upstream companies varies, with a general trend of squeezing midstream companies. For instance, the leading polarizer company Nitto Denko achieved a net profit margin of 13.54%, while Chinese polarizer companies had significantly lower margins [24][30]. Market Size and Trends - The non-automotive large-size LCD market size fluctuated from $51.56 billion in 2020 to $41.35 billion in 2024, with expectations of gradual recovery to $47.79 billion from 2025 to 2030 [40]. - The report attributes the historical changes in market size to multiple replacement cycles and the surge in demand for computers due to remote work and online education in 2021, which drove LCD shipments to historical highs [41][42]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the non-automotive large-size LCD industry is characterized by high intensity, with major players including BOE Technology Group, TCL Technology, Sharp, and Panasonic in the first tier. The second tier includes companies like Rainbow Optoelectronics and Xiaomi, while smaller companies occupy the third tier [50][51]. - The report indicates that the profitability of mid-sized enterprises is relatively limited, leading to a risk of elimination in a highly competitive environment. The overall investment return rate in the industry is low, discouraging new entrants and contributing to increased industry concentration [53][54].

Group 1 - The price of liquid crystal television panels has stopped declining for the first time in two months, influenced by the release of new national subsidy funds, panel manufacturers controlling production based on demand, increased industry concentration, and a recovery in panel procurement [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of special national bonds to support the consumption of old goods in exchange for new ones [4] - After a rapid destocking by television brands in the second quarter, the demand for television panels is showing signs of weak recovery in the third quarter, with manufacturers adopting a production strategy based on demand [4] Group 2 - The concentration of the liquid crystal television panel industry is increasing, providing more possibilities for manufacturers to produce based on demand and stabilize prices [5] - Following TCL Huaxing's acquisition of LGD's Guangzhou 8.5-generation panel production line, BOE announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which may become an important part of BOE's television panel capacity layout [5] - Sigmaintell predicts that the market share of major liquid crystal panel manufacturers, including BOE, TCL Huaxing, and Huike, will expand to over 70% in the global liquid crystal television panel market [5]

Core Insights - In May, industrial enterprises' profits turned negative year-on-year, with a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.1% compared to the previous year, and a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone [16][29] - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) showing resilience while resource sectors and essential consumption face challenges [29] Industry Overview - The industrial profit margin weakened due to factors such as export slowdown, insufficient effective demand, and price pressures, leading to a negative profit growth in May [3][29] - The TMT sector experienced a year-on-year profit growth of 11.9%, driven by strong demand for smart consumer devices, with some industries like intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing seeing a profit increase of 101.5% [28][29] - In the resource sector, profits in the mining industry saw a year-on-year decline of 29.0%, while manufacturing and electricity sectors also reported reduced profit growth [20][29] Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both increased, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor market [31] - DDR4 DRAM prices rose by 4.42% for 8GB modules and 5.88% for 16GB modules, reflecting a recovery in memory prices [34] - North American PCB shipments turned positive year-on-year, although order growth has slowed [31][34] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation in China increased year-on-year, indicating growth in the renewable energy sector [4][30] - Prices for silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry declined, while production of packaging equipment and metal forming machine tools saw a slowdown in growth [4][30] Consumer Demand - The report noted an increase in pork prices and a rise in profits for pig farming, while prices for chicken chicks decreased [4][30] - The film industry showed positive trends with box office revenues increasing year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [4][30] Resource Sector Tracking - Industrial metal prices generally increased, with a decline in inventories, while coal prices remained stable [4][30] - The cement price index showed a downward trend, indicating challenges in the construction materials market [4][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense price competition in the Chinese television market during the "6.18" shopping festival, highlighting the impact of government subsidies and consumer preferences for larger, high-efficiency TVs. The competition is characterized by significant price drops, with some products being sold at prices comparable to their panel costs, leading to concerns about profit margins for manufacturers [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Sales Performance - The average price of televisions during the "6.18" festival has decreased by over 10% compared to last year's "Double Eleven" sales, particularly for large-sized TVs [2][4]. - Sales of large-screen TVs (75 inches and above) have surged, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi leading in sales rankings [1]. - The overall sales revenue in the domestic TV market is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year during "6.18" due to the influence of government subsidies [6]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences and Product Trends - Consumers are increasingly opting for high-quality, larger TVs, with Mini LED technology gaining popularity [8][10]. - The market is seeing a shift towards energy-efficient and high-end products, with over 90% of sales attributed to high-efficiency TVs [8]. - The promotion period for "6.18" has been extended from five weeks to six weeks, indicating a strategic shift by e-commerce platforms to capture more sales [5]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies of Major Brands - Major brands like TCL and Hisense are focusing on product differentiation and technological innovation rather than solely competing on price [8][10]. - TCL has introduced a diverse range of products across different price segments, leveraging both government and corporate subsidies to boost sales [8]. - Hisense is emphasizing smart, large-screen, and energy-efficient TVs, aiming to attract consumers looking for value [9][10]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Panel Pricing - The price competition in the TV market is supported by stable panel prices, with manufacturers like BOE and TCL focusing on high-value products [13]. - Liquid crystal panel prices have remained stable, but there are concerns that if TV sales do not meet expectations, it could lead to adjustments in panel procurement and pricing strategies [13][14]. - Panel manufacturers are advised to maintain rational production levels and avoid excessive price competition to stimulate demand for larger TVs [14].

Core Viewpoint - The global flat panel display industry is transitioning into a supply stock era after two years of market reshuffling, with a focus on on-demand production and high-end product upgrades driven by government policies [1][2]. Industry Overview - The industry is moving from competition based on scale and market share to a focus on high profitability applications, high value-added products, advanced technologies, and strong brands [2]. - The average size of flat panel TVs in China is projected to reach 65.1 inches in 2024, significantly larger than the global average of 51.4 inches [2]. - The compound annual growth rate for shipments of TV panels larger than 65 inches is expected to be 59% from 2020 to 2026 [2]. - The OLED screen market share for Chinese manufacturers reached 50% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in domestic production capabilities [6]. Company Performance - BOE Technology Group achieved a revenue of 198.38 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.66%, with a net profit of 5.323 billion yuan, up 108.97% [4]. - In Q1 2024, BOE reported a revenue of 50.599 billion yuan, marking a 10.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.614 billion yuan, up 64.06% [4]. - The gross margin for BOE is projected to rise to 15% in 2024, maintaining industry-leading levels [5]. Strategic Initiatives - BOE's "Screen IoT" strategy aims to integrate more functions into screens and establish a diverse ecosystem based on semiconductor displays and IoT innovations [4]. - The company is actively pursuing the automotive display market, with its subsidiary achieving over 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [7]. Shareholder Returns - BOE has implemented a shareholder return mechanism, with a cash dividend of 1.87 billion yuan planned for 2024, representing 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [9]. - The company has consistently paid cash dividends for ten years, totaling nearly 22 billion yuan, and has a buyback plan of 1.5 to 2 billion yuan for A-shares in 2024 [9].

Group 1 - The global large-size LCD TV panel shipment volume reached 63.0 million units in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8% [2] - The shipment area for large-size LCD TV panels was 46.7 million square meters in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [2] - The average size of LCD TV panels increased to 49.5 inches in Q1, up by 0.2 inches compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - Major manufacturers like BOE and TCL achieved record high shipments in Q1, with BOE exceeding 17 million units and TCL nearing 5 million units in March [3] - The domestic TV market experienced a decline in volume but an increase in revenue, with Q1 sales volume at 6.91 million units, down 2.2% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 3.4% to 26.4 billion yuan [4] - The trend towards larger TV panels contributed significantly to revenue growth, with over 5.4% of sales coming from products priced above 10,000 yuan [4] Group 3 - Companies like TCL reported substantial profit increases, with net profit growth of 321.96% and 329% for its semiconductor display business [4] - The panel market is expected to see a decline in shipments in Q2, with a projected decrease of 3%-5% [5] - The industry is focusing on "demand-driven production" and enhancing large-size demand to maintain stable growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The liquid crystal display (LCD) panel market is experiencing a decline in shipment volume, while the shipment area is growing due to increased demand for larger sizes. The OLED television market is showing a significant growth trend in shipment volume. LCD Panel Market Analysis - The global LCD television panel shipment volume has been decreasing, with a drop to 226 million units in 2023, but is expected to rise to 237 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [5][7] - Despite the decline in shipment volume, the global LCD television panel shipment area has increased from 162 million square meters in 2019 to an expected 175 million square meters in 2024 [7] OLED Television Market Analysis - The global OLED television shipment volume is on an upward trend, with an expected shipment of 7.09 million units in 2024, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 34% [10][8] Competitive Landscape - In the OLED market, key players include BOE Technology Group, Visionox, and Huaxing Optoelectronics, with BOE and Visionox being prominent in China's OLED market due to their strong financial capabilities [11] - The TFT-LCD market is led by companies such as BOE, Huike, and Innolux, which have significant production capacity advantages [11]

Group 1 - The April Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the capital market, indicating a commitment to controlling downward risks in the A-share market [1][4][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive fiscal policies, focusing on the effective implementation of existing funds and the issuance of special government bonds to support economic stability [6][8] - Monetary policy will introduce new structural tools to support the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [8][9] Group 2 - The meeting underscored the significance of expanding domestic demand, with a focus on consumer spending and support for low-income groups, indicating a long-term policy direction towards consumption [5][12] - The industrial policy aims to alleviate pressures on enterprises and support the integration of domestic and foreign trade, with a focus on financing support and regulatory improvements [9][10] - The real estate policy aims to stabilize the market through urban renewal initiatives and optimizing existing housing supply, indicating a cautious approach to new land supply [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests focusing on artificial intelligence and self-sufficiency in technology as key investment areas, particularly in high-end chips and foundational software [12] - The consumption sector is expected to remain a primary focus of policy, with potential expansions in areas like service consumption and trade-in programs [12] - The overall market sentiment is anticipated to improve due to a combination of stable economic conditions and increased liquidity, which may enhance risk appetite among investors [1][4][13]