1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, it is recommended to hold off. For options, the strategy is to short put at 77,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current low domestic TC price makes copper prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. Combined with the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong performance of precious metal prices, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips for copper operations, with the suggested buying range between 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a -0.54% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,760 yuan/ton and closed at 78,940 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remained strong. SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,550 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 - 280 yuan/ton to the current contract, and an average premium of 210 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. Considering the approaching delivery date and downstream stocking demand on Friday, the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: In the US employment market, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1,953,000, also lower than expected. US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years. The stronger - than - expected employment and inflation data may put downward pressure on copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: Australia's second - largest gold miner is seeking to increase its investment in copper, with the potential to raise the proportion of copper business revenue to 40% from the current 25% [4] - **Smelting and Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of cathode copper by 24 domestic sample enterprises was 7.1346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.78%. In July, the output was 1.0751 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.84% and a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. An Indian copper smelter with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons has applied to LME to become a listed copper delivery brand [5] - **Consumption**: The rapid construction of AI data centers may further tighten the global copper market, potentially leading to a supply shortage of 6 million tons by 2035. The copper demand in this industry is expected to average about 400,000 tons per year in the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028 [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 875 tons to 155,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,634 tons to 24,434 tons. On August 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.256 million tons, a change of - 60,000 tons from the previous week [7]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices showed narrow fluctuations, opening at $9777.5 per ton and currently at $9776.5 per ton, with a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - On August 14, LME copper futures had an opening price of $9795.0, a highest price of $9836.5, a lowest price of $9714.0, and a closing price of $9768.5, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% [1] - The current ratio of electrolytic copper spot prices between Shanghai and London is 8.1, indicating a profit/loss of 44.55 yuan per ton for imports, compared to a loss of 75.3 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The El Teniente copper smelter of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, has resumed operations [1] - As of August 14, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,800 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,050 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; total copper inventory stands at 155,850 tons, down by 25 tons [1]

Group 1 - Hudbay Minerals dropped over 4%, while Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, and Ero Copper fell more than 2% [1] - The Chilean National Copper Corporation significantly revised down its copper production growth forecast for 2025, now expecting a 1.5% increase compared to last year's figures, which is only half of the growth predicted in May [1] - The downward revision in production growth is attributed to a decline in output from BHP's Escondida mine (the world's largest copper mine) and the Collahuasi mine operated by Anglo American and Glencore [1]

据各类财经网站数据显示，今日三大指数集体呈下滑趋势，其中上证指数下跌0.46%，深证成指下跌 0.87%，创业板指下跌1.08%。受大盘影响，山西板块今日整体表现疲软，下跌1.96%。 山西上市企业今日突出表现： 今日山西板块有2只股票在整体下跌趋势中逆风翻盘，分别为：广誉远（600771）涨幅为1.08%；北方 铜业（000737）上涨0.43%。 广誉远（股票代码：600771） 北方铜业（股票代码：000737） 资料显示，广誉远是现存历史最悠久的中药企业之一。其前身广盛号药店诞生于明嘉靖二十年（公元 1541年）。2006年，广誉远被认定为首批"中华老字号"。2021年，广誉远重回山西国资体系，通过践 行"全产业链打造高品质中药"的发展战略，以"做高品质中药引领者"为使命愿景，以振兴中医药产业为 己任，正在成为具有一流中医药产品力、品牌力、组织力、创新力的旗舰企业之一。 北方铜业股份有限公司成立于2002年12月,是我国华北地区最大的铜生产企业。2020年6月，北方铜业与 上市公司南风化工集团股份有限公司进行重大资产重组，并于2021年10月18日取得中国证监会的核准批 复，2021年11月26日完成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective decline in U.S. copper stocks, with major companies like Rio Tinto and BHP experiencing notable pre-market drops due to revised copper production forecasts from Chile's National Copper Corporation [1] - Chile's National Copper Corporation has significantly lowered its 2025 copper production growth forecast to 1.5%, which is half of the previously predicted 3% increase made in May [1] - The downward revision in production growth is attributed to decreased output from major mines, specifically BHP's Escondida mine and the joint-operated Coya Sur mine by Anglo American and Glencore, which saw a decline in June production [1] Group 2 - Pre-market performance shows Rio Tinto down nearly 2% at $63.570, BHP down 1.4% at $54.730, Freeport-McMoRan down 0.54% at $42.740, and Southern Copper down 0.20% at $99.500 [1] - The article provides specific stock price changes and percentages, indicating a broader trend of declining investor confidence in copper-related equities amid production concerns [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Recommendations - Copper prices continued to rise. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79,360. Overnight US CPI data was lower than expected, leading the market to further bet on a 25BP interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index declined, which was positive for copper prices. The spot price rose 325 to 79,475, and the spot premium remained flat at 200. As the delivery was approaching, domestic supply was still tight, but imported supply supplemented. It was expected that the premium would slightly decline. The spot Shanghai-London ratio dropped to 8.088, the import loss narrowed to 75, and the 0-3C structure widened to 87. The premiums of warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. In the short term, the domestic spot market was stronger than the overseas market. With the opening of the expectations of interest rate cuts in China and the US, the market's bullish sentiment rebounded. It was recommended to buy copper on dips [10] Group 3: Industry News - Codelco's copper production in June increased by 17% year-on-year to 120,200 tons [11] - According to Industrial Online data, in June 2025, China's household air conditioner exports ended a two-year growth trend. The export volume in that month decreased by 25.6% year-on-year to 6.496 million units [11] - The unadjusted annual CPI rate in the US in July remained the same as the previous month, recording 2.7%; the unadjusted annual core CPI rate in July rose to a five-month high, recording 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates immediately, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [11] - According to recycled copper rod enterprises, the investment promotion policy may be cancelled on September 1, 2025. Currently, no enterprise has received an official notice, but many enterprises are worried that if the preferential policies for enterprise operations stop, they will need to purchase recycled copper raw materials with a 13% VAT in the future. Therefore, recycled copper rod enterprises may temporarily stop production and wait until September 1 to see if the notice is actually implemented before making production plans [11]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-13 降息预期上升叠加现货地域性紧缺 铜价震荡上升 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-08-12，沪铜主力合约开于 78750元/吨，收于 79020元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.00%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79220元/吨，收于 79410 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.49%。 现货情况： 消费方面，近期市场表现分化明显，受终端提货放缓影响，部分企业主动减产控制库存，拖累整体开工水平；而 铜价低位运行则促使多数企业维持平稳生产。行业库存呈现双降态势，原料库存减少6.67%至3.5万吨，成品库存下 降5.62%至6.89万吨。线缆行业表现相对亮眼，开工率环比提升2.55个百分点至69.89%，主要受益于电网订单集中 交付，但建筑等民用领域仍显疲软。随着月初资金面改善及减产企业逐步复产，预计本周精铜杆开工率将回升至 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-13 70.79%，而线缆行业受制于民用需求不足，开工率或小幅回落至68.92%。当前市场仍呈现\"电力强、民用弱\"的差 异化 ...

Group 1 - The rapid construction of AI data centers is expected to tighten global copper supply, potentially leading to a supply gap of 6 million tons by 2035 [1] - The average annual demand for copper in the AI sector is projected to be around 400,000 tons over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028, with a cumulative total usage exceeding 4.3 million tons by 2035 [1] - Demand for copper from other industries, such as power transmission and wind energy, is also surging, with expected usage nearly doubling by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The increase in AI capacity is putting pressure on an already tight market, exacerbated by years of insufficient investment in new copper supply [1] - Following the unexpected announcement by former U.S. President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff, COMEX copper futures experienced a significant drop of 20% in late July [1] - As demand accelerates and supply growth lags, analysts predict copper prices will peak at $13,500 per ton by 2028 [1] Group 3 - By 2035, the global copper supply is expected to be only 29 million tons, significantly below the 35 million tons needed to meet demand, indicating a worsening supply shortage [1] - Copper accounts for nearly 6% of the capital expenditure in a data center project [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Hong Kong copper stocks, particularly Minmetals Resources, which surged over 9% after announcing its interim results [1] - Minmetals Resources reported a revenue of $2.817 billion for the first half of the year, representing a 47% year-on-year increase [1] - The company's profit attributable to equity holders reached $340 million, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 1511% [1] Group 2 - The revenue growth for Minmetals Resources was primarily driven by increased sales volume and rising commodity prices [1] - Profit growth was attributed to enhanced copper production from three copper mines, rising market prices for copper, gold, silver, and zinc, as well as a decrease in unit costs at Las Bambas [1] - Analysts noted limited global copper mine production growth, with Chile's copper output increasing by 17% in June, but significant declines at Escondida (down 33%) and Collahuasi (down 29%) [1] Group 3 - The market anticipates a rebound in demand for copper due to increased infrastructure, power grid investments, and the renewable energy sector in China after September, which may further drive up copper prices [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Copper prices rebounded after hitting a low. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract remained unchanged from the previous day. With the extension of the China-US tariff truce and the upcoming US CPI data, the market is in a wait-and-see mood. The spot copper market is strong domestically and weak overseas. Considering the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, it is recommended to buy on dips [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rebounded after hitting a low. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 70,920, unchanged from the previous day. The market's optimistic sentiment recovered due to the extension of the China-US tariff truce, but the upcoming US CPI data led to a wait-and-see mood. Spot copper prices remained unchanged, and the premium rose by 50 to 200. LME inventories decreased by 700 tons, and the 0 - 3C structure widened. The import copper spot window is approaching to open. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] 2. Industry News - Far East Co., Ltd. received contract orders worth over 10 million yuan in July 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 42.61% and a month-on-month increase of 8.51%. From January to July, the total contract orders reached 18.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.77% [11] - Codelco's copper production in June increased by 17% year-on-year to 120,200 tons. However, the copper production of BHP's Escondida mine decreased by 33% to 76,400 tons, and the production of the Collahuasi copper mine jointly operated by Anglo American and Glencore decreased by 29% to 34,300 tons [11] - In July, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. The export of new energy vehicles in July was 225,000, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 120% [11][12]