山西板块26日整体表现较弱，小幅下跌0.06%，逆势于市场主要指数的上涨趋势，成交额为103.50亿 元，较25日成交额74.24亿元，放量约29.26亿元。 涨跌情况方面，山西板块41只个股，11只上涨，21只下跌，9只平盘。 上涨股中，华阳股份为领涨股，涨幅为6.10%。此外，北方铜业上涨5.22%，锦波生物上涨3.00%，派林 生物上涨1.58%。潞化科技（维权）、晋控电力、晋控煤业等7只个股涨幅低于1%。 文 | 张阳阳 12月26日，A股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.1%，深证成指涨0.54%，创业板指涨 0.14%；北证50涨0.35%。沪深两市成交额约21601.91亿元，较前一个交易日放量约2356.69亿元。 下跌个股中，跨境通由25日领涨，变为26日领跌股，跌幅3.36%。此外，太钢不锈、金利华电、大禹生 物等9只个股跌逾1%；晋西车轴、壶化股份、大秦铁路等11只个股跌幅在1%以下。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...

Group 1: Metal Market Performance - The main contracts for copper, gold, silver, and platinum futures reached historical highs, with lithium carbonate futures breaking through 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strength, with leading stocks Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting historical highs, with market values of 886.8 billion yuan and 421.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - Copper prices are expected to continue rising due to ongoing adjustments in global copper inventory, supply shortages, and expectations of mid-term easing from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold remains in an upward channel but is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations; future trends depend on the interplay between declining real interest rates and a weakening US dollar [3] - Silver shows stronger short-term certainty due to a high gold-silver ratio indicating potential for correction, alongside increasing demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics [3] Group 3: New Energy Sector Dynamics - The new energy sector, particularly the lithium battery supply chain, solar energy, and energy storage, is experiencing a rebound, with leading stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply and BYD seeing significant gains [4] - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and production adjustments by major cathode material manufacturers are key catalysts for the rebound in the new energy sector [5] - The lithium battery supply chain is emerging from a clearing phase, with demand growth exceeding expectations and signs of supply tightness in certain segments, indicating a recovery in the overall industry [6]

东方证券发布研报称，2026年铜精矿长单加工费归零，凸显铜矿供给与冶炼端结构性矛盾。传统需求筑 底叠加新兴领域强劲增长，矿端供不应求局面或将延续，支撑铜价中枢。中期随大型矿山复产及国内冶 炼行业调整，加工费或存边际改善空间。建议关注资源型矿企与自给率提升的冶炼龙头。 东方证券主要观点如下： 尽管中期铜精矿供小于求局面或不改，但从边际角度来看供给端与冶炼端供需矛盾或有改善潜力。当前 全球第二大铜矿Grasberg已宣布重启和复产计划，产量有望在26-27年持续增长，可供应全球约1.5%铜 矿产量的第一量子旗下Cobre Panamá铜矿的重启谈判也有望于26年初开启。该行认为，在中期矿端干扰 被逐渐排除的情况下，如Grasberg、Cobre Panamá等铜矿的重新恢复正常生产或将显著贡献矿端增量， 从而缓和铜矿供给与铜冶炼之间的供需矛盾，叠加国内铜冶炼"反内卷"措施出台落地的预期，铜精矿现 货加工费有望向上改善。该行看好铜冶炼企业在缓和预期下盈利改善的潜力，继续看好中期矿价与冶炼 费边际同涨。 投资建议与投资标的 铜矿端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业（601899） (601 ...

期货行情： 2025-12-25，沪铜主力合约开于 95910元/吨，收于 96210元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.11%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 96,410元/吨，收于 96,280 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.57%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价贴水400至260元/吨，均价贴水330元/吨，较昨日下跌20元。1#电解铜价格 区间为94300-95220元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约震荡上行，午前收于95230元/吨附近。现货市场报价继续走弱，部分 冶炼厂低价出货，下游需求整体疲软。早盘主流平水铜贴水360-300元/吨，好铜货源稀少，报价难寻。第二时段后 平水铜贴水扩大至400元/吨附近，整体成交清淡。跨月价差维持C220-C180元/吨。随着交易转向下月票，预计现货 流动性将进一步下降，升水或延续下行趋势。 圣诞假期海外休市 但铜价依然维持偏强态势 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 市场要闻与重要数据 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，12月25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trajectory of China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production, projecting an increase in output and emphasizing the investment potential in the electrolytic copper foil industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's refined copper production is expected to reach 1.2 million tons in October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of refined copper in China is projected to be 12.295 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 9.7% [1] Market Research - The report titled "2025-2031 China Electrolytic Copper Foil Industry Market Status Analysis and Investment Prospects Assessment" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the current market conditions and future investment opportunities in the electrolytic copper foil sector [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aerospace satellite sector soared again on Thursday, driving the growth - style indices stronger, and the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that global stocks have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with earnings in 2026 continuing to support the market. The total return rate, including dividends, will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - The Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from "expectation - driven" to "earnings - driven". Chinese corporate earnings may grow by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, the aerospace satellite sector led the growth - style indices higher. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.92 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The CSI 500 index closed at 7410 points, up 58 points or 0.80%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7579 points, up 73 points or 0.97%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3032 points, up 7 points or 0.25%; the SSE 300 index closed at 4642 points, up 8 points or 0.18% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, satellite ETFs, aerospace ETFs, etc. led the gains, while gold stock ETFs, mining ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the two - market sector indices, aerospace equipment, motor manufacturing, etc. led the gains, while precious metals, energy metals, etc. led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net inflows of 1.3 billion, 1.1 billion, and 0.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. 2. Important Information - Since December, a large number of investors have been deploying in the A - share market by subscribing to CSI A500ETF, becoming one of the main incremental funds in the recent market. The significant net inflow of A500ETF is due to the "calendar effect" of "volume - boosting" at the end of the quarter and the balanced industry configuration of the CSI A500 index [1]. - Goldman Sachs judges that global stocks have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market. With dividends included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - The offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar have broken through key levels, hitting new highs since the end of September 2024. The market has a consensus expectation of RMB appreciation in 2026 [1]. - The deputy chief designer of Zhuque - 3 hopes to achieve successful recovery by mid - 2026. Once successful, the three rockets already produced will be quickly iterated [1]. - Russia plans to build a nuclear power plant on the moon by 2036, and the US NASA plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030 [1]. - Jiangxi Copper has successfully acquired Australian miner SolGold, with a transaction value of up to $1.17 billion, gaining control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador [2]. - The US dollar has been sold off significantly this year, while non - US currencies have strengthened across the board, and gold has hit a record high [2]. - OpenAI is planning the advertising commercialization path of ChatGPT, which may pose a potential challenge to the trillion - dollar digital advertising market dominated by Google and Meta [2]. - Western auto giants such as Ford and Renault are compressing the new - car development cycle to about two years, learning from the "Chinese model" [2]. - The US job market shows signs of recovery, with the number of initial jobless claims falling last week [2]. - US regulatory agencies have proposed to relax bank regulations, and the total market value of six major US banks has increased significantly [2]. - Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds to about 17 trillion yen next fiscal year, the lowest in 17 years [2]. 3. Market Logic - The aerospace satellite sector's rise on Thursday drove the growth - style indices higher, and the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - As of December 20, ETFs investing in Chinese assets have received a cumulative net inflow of $83.1 billion in 2025. The technology sector has received the most foreign capital inflows, reaching $9.5 billion [2]. - In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major incremental funds in the stock market, and the scale of public - offering fixed - income + products will at least double [2][3]. 4. Future Market Outlook - The growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first. Chinese corporate earnings may grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan or 56% [3]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. - JPMorgan believes that in 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline [3]. - Google plans to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [3]. - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [3]. 5. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, as some institutions have started the spring market in advance, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are continuously strengthening. After the short - term technical indicators are repaired, the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market. The trading strategy has shifted from defense to offense, and investors should establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indices as the main targets in batches [3]. - For stock index option trading, as an upward market is expected to gradually unfold, investors should open call options on the CSI 1000 index at an appropriate time [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper has successfully acquired SolGold plc, a leading copper-gold mining company in South America, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Copper Hong Kong Investment, at a price of 28 pence per share, valuing the entire issued and to-be-issued share capital of SolGold at approximately £867 million, equivalent to about 8.07 billion yuan [2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Jiangxi Copper became the largest shareholder of SolGold nine months prior by purchasing 157 million shares for approximately $18.07 million, increasing its total holdings to 366 million shares, representing 12.19% of SolGold's issued shares [3]. - The acquisition offer was initially rejected by SolGold's board, leading Jiangxi Copper to increase its offer from 26 pence to 28 pence per share, which represents a premium of approximately 42.9% over the closing price before the initial engagement [4][5]. - The acquisition will result in SolGold becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jiangxi Copper, which will consolidate SolGold's financials into its own [7]. Group 2: Project and Resource Development - SolGold's core asset is the Cascabel project in Ecuador, one of the world's most significant undeveloped porphyry copper-gold deposits, with proven and probable reserves of 3.2 million tons of copper, 9.4 million ounces of gold, and 2.8 million ounces of silver [8]. - Jiangxi Copper aims to leverage its technical capabilities and financial resources to develop the Cascabel project, aligning with its long-term strategic goals to enhance resource reserves [9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported revenues of 139.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.09%, and a net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, up 94.68% year-on-year, driven by rising copper prices [10]. - As of December 25, 2025, Jiangxi Copper's stock price was 43.92 yuan per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 124.77% [11].

2025年国内电解铜价格走势 数据来源：上海钢联 ◎记者 霍星羽 王敬博 铜价变动常被视为经济晴雨表，因此被称为"铜博士"。2025年，"铜博士"站上了"风口"。 这一年，铜价强势突破前高，站上新高度：LME铜价突破11952美元/吨的峰值，沪铜主力合约首次超越 94000元/吨大关。 这一年，铜的史诗级大戏上演：全球铜库存向美国"迁徙"，纽约铜价一度高出伦铜近3000美元/吨，而 这一差距又在一个交易日内大幅收窄。 这一年，铜的金融属性熠熠生辉：铜价对美联储降息的预期和落地作出反应，市场提前交易降息预期， 但铜价又在"靴子落地"后受到支撑。 这一年，铜的战略价值也为更多人所知：首次被列入美国关键矿产清单，矿业巨头跨界竞逐铜标的， AI算力浪潮下"新能源基建金属"地位强化，"铜博士"已悄然升咖。 2026年，铜的前景仍然值得期待：除铜精矿外，精炼铜供应或也转紧，宏观与基本面共振下，铜价重心 有望进一步上移。 价格震荡上行，产业冷暖不均 2025年铜价中枢上行，沪铜、伦铜接连突破历史前高。 数据印证着市场的热度。2025年前11个月，LME铜基金净持仓维持净多状态，且较去年大幅增加；国 内A股铜概念板块年内涨幅 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with the main copper futures contract slightly rising by 1.00% to 96,210.00 yuan/ton [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 10,000 to 214,000, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain high due to weak employment [2] - Global copper production has declined by 4.7% year-on-year due to frequent accidents in major copper mining regions like Chile and Indonesia, leading to a historical low in copper concentrate processing fees at -40 USD/ton [2] Group 2 - The demand for copper remains resilient, driven by the growth in the renewable energy sector, AI data center construction, and global power grid renovation [2] - China's smelting plants have agreed to a processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026, reducing it from 21.25 USD/ton to 0 USD/ton, indicating pressure on the smelting sector and potential reductions in refined copper supply [2] - Since the reduction in Indonesian copper mine production in September, the copper supply-demand situation has tightened, with computing power and green electricity consumption being long-term drivers for copper prices [2]