研究中心能化团队 2025/6/23 | | | 指标 | 5/21 | 6/13 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 6/20 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11900 | 11390 | 11740 | 11770 | 11630 | -140 | 240 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 15064 | 19801 | 16777 | 15134 | 13196 | -1938 | -୧୧୦୮ | | | STET | 主力合约成交量 | 97613 | 206269 | 104964 | 81102 | 106439 | 25337 | -99830 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10490 | 12520 | 12290 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5890 | | | | 虚实比 | 7.18 | 7.91 | 6.83 | 11.41 | તે જેવી સ | -1 | 2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 300 | 210 | ...

综述：短期跟随原油，高位震荡 01 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究。隆众资讯 行情研判：短期跟随原油，高位震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年06月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 ➢ 期货端静态估值：目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为11400-12000元/吨，动态估值区间由于丁二烯成交偏中性，动态估值预计震荡运行。上 方估值而言，盘面12000-12100元/吨或为基本面上方估值高位。当主力BR2507合约升水山东地区市场价100元/吨左右（单月持仓成本90元/吨附 近），盘面产生持现货抛盘面的无风险套利空间，套保头寸将逐渐使盘面上方空间压力增大。下方估值而言，丁二烯预计从成本端对顺丁价格形成支 撑 。 预计盘面 11400 元 / 吨 为 下 方 的 理 论 估 值 底 部 区 间 。 顺 丁 的 理 论 完 全 成 本 估 算 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | | 指标 | 5/20 | 6/12 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12070 | 11035 | 11485 | 11740 | 11770 | 30 | 735 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 16991 | 21103 | 16181 | 16777 | 15134 | -1643 | -5969 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 94802 | 121876 | 111310 | 104964 | 81102 | -23862 | -40774 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10290 | 12820 | 12290 | 12290 | 6630 | -5660 | -6190 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.26 | 8.23 | 6.58 | 6.83 | 11.41 | 5 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 330 | 515 | 115 ...

r2508合约短线预计在11400-11900区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-19 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11770 | 30 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 15134 | -1643 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 140 | 20 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 800 | -4370 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000, ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 期货市场 | 11740 | 255 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 16777 | 596 | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -40 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 5170 | 0 | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 现货市场 东(日,元/吨) | 11600 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 11600 | 0 | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11600 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 0 | 11650 | 0 | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10 | 东(日,元/吨) -205 | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | 76.45 | 3.22 石脑油:CFR日本(日,美元/吨) | 625.63 | 1.5 | | 东北 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11485 | -80 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 16181 | -2138 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 160 | 5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 5170 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流 ...

BD 乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/17 | | | 指标 | 5/15 | 6/9 | 6/12 | 6/13 | 6/16 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12260 | 11270 | 11035 | 11390 | 11565 | 175 | ટતેર | | | | | 22783 | 22981 | 21103 | 19801 | 18319 | -1482 | -4662 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | | | | | | | | | | 探讨 | 主力合约成交量 | 126864 | 104086 | 121876 | 206269 | 159100 | -47169 | 55014 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11680 | 11630 | 12820 | 12520 | 12520 | 0 | 890 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.75 | 9.88 | 8.23 | 7.91 | 7.32 | ...

l 永 灰安期货 BR 免责 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 13000 r 120000 15000 12500 1000000 12000 13000 80000 11500 60000 11000 11000 40000 10500 9000 20000 10000 7000 9500 F 07合约 08合约 09合约 现货 -- 6/13 -- 6/12 -- 6/11 -- 6/6 -- 5/14 顺丁-BR基差 丁苯-BR基差 BR06-07 2500 1000 - 800 2000 600 500 1 200 400 1000 200 500 -200 -20Q -50Q a -400 -1000 -1000 -600 -1500 - -800 -1500 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 - 2024 - 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 · 2023 - - 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR07-08 18000 18000 1000 800 16000 16000 600 14000 14 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is bullish due to the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drives up international energy prices. However, in the medium - term, the supply in the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate exceeds the demand growth rate, so there is still fundamental pressure [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Futures Static Valuation**: The fundamental static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable, and domestic butadiene prices fluctuate around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. The short - term import volume is neutral. The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to show a pattern of support during fluctuations [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, and alternative demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, the synthetic rubber may follow the upward trend of oil products. In the medium term, the fundamental pressure is still high. The current main contradiction in the market is the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term for single - side trading; the spread between NR and BR is expected to narrow [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - side Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate is high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4]. - **Demand - side**: The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output**: The output is affected by the operating rate. Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month [4][40]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is approaching the break - even point, and the cost is mainly determined by butadiene prices [4][42]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Import and Export**: The import and export volumes show certain trends over time, but specific data are not deeply analyzed in the report [45][46]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Inventory**: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory [50][51]. - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of tires in Shandong Province are used to reflect the demand for butadiene rubber. The inventory and operating rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires show different trends [54][55].

下灰鼓期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/13 | | | 指标 | 5/13 | 6/5 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 6/12 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12205 | 10960 | 11230 | 11225 | 11035 | -190 | 75 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26422 | 26276 | 21708 | 22765 | 21103 | -1662 | -5173 | | | ： | 主力合约成交量 | 219791 | ਰੇਰੇਵਟਰ | 104597 | 112068 | 121876 | 9808 | 22217 | | | | | 11540 | 11800 | 11570 | 11420 | 12820 | 1400 | 1020 | | | | 仓単数量 | | | | | | | | | | | 虚实比 | 11.45 | 11.13 | 9.38 | 9.97 | 8.23 | ...