上市企业：博实股份（002698）,亚星化学（600319）,阳谷华泰（300121）,双箭股份（002381）,齐翔腾 达（002408）,海达股份（300320）,软控股份（002073）,中化国际（600500）,三力士（002224）,彤程 新材（603650） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国合成橡胶行业市场供需态势及发展前景研判报告》 2020-2025年中国合成橡胶产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国合成橡胶产量为80万吨，同比下降20.2%；2025年1-12月中 国合成橡胶累计产量为893.2万吨，累计下降20.3%。 ...

截至1月29日，顺丁橡胶产业上游、中游与下游开工率分化，其中，丁二烯行业开工率为71.3%，环比 +2.6%；高顺顺丁橡胶行业开工率为76.4%，环比+0.3%；半钢胎样本厂家开工率为74.3%，环比 +0.7%；全钢胎样本厂家开工率64.5%，环比-0.1%。 【库存】 截至1月28日，丁二烯港口库存40500吨，环比+6000吨；顺丁橡胶厂内库存为27650吨，较上期-1400 吨，环比-4.8%；贸易商库存为6780吨，较上期+430吨，环比+6.8%。 【资讯】 隆众资讯1月29日报道：本周期(20260123-0129)山东轮胎样本企业成品库存环比涨跌互现。截止到1月29 日，半钢胎样本企业平均库存周转天数在48.78天，环比+0.25天，同比+6.45天；全钢胎样本企业平均库 存周转天数在46.78天，环比-0.02天，同比+0.09天。 【原料及现货】 截至1月29日，丁二烯山东市场价10650(+125)元/吨；丁二烯CIF中国价格1270(+0)美元/吨；顺丁橡胶 (BR9000)山东齐鲁石化（600002）市场价13000(+50)元/吨，顺丁橡胶-泰混价差-2450(-200)元/吨，基 ...

合成橡胶协会会长张孝明强调，2026年是充满机遇与挑战的关键之年，协会上下要坚持以服务为本、以 发展为要，紧紧围绕审议通过的工作计划，狠抓落实。他要求，各负责人、各分会及秘书处要勇担责 任、密切协作，引导广大会员单位坚定信心、开拓创新，共同推动行业实现更高质量、更可持续的发 展。 此外，会议还听取并审议了《2025年工作总结及2026年工作计划》。张孝明主持此次会议，协会负责 人、监事会成员、各分会负责人、协会副秘书长等参加此次会议。 中化新网讯近日，中国合成橡胶工业协会(以下简称合成橡胶协会)在京召开2026年会长办公会扩大会 议。会议旨在分析合成橡胶行业形势，总结合成橡胶协会2025年工作成果并谋划2026年工作方向。 会议指出，2025年合成橡胶协会在服务会员、推动行业进步、加强自身建设等方面取得成效；新年度协 会计划聚焦国家战略导向与行业实际需求开展工作，同时持续加强协会自身建设，不断提升规范化、专 业化水平，以更高效的组织能力和更优质的服务，回应会员期盼，担当行业责任。 ...

合成橡胶景气指数显示，结合顺丁橡胶、丁苯橡胶和SBS橡胶(苯乙烯-丁二烯-苯乙烯嵌段共聚物)生产 企业数据库来看，自2025年7月，合成橡胶景气指数呈现下降趋势；随着行业利润、供应及配送等各项 稳增长趋势表现，2025年12月合成橡胶景气指数处于回暖趋势，景气指数重回涨势。 合成橡胶景气指数是以合成橡胶行业供需动态、市场价格波动、企业效益水平及行业预期变化等多维度 核心数据为基础，通过科学模型编制而成。该指数通过系统整合生产、库存、配送、销售、利润及预期 等关键环节信息，以反映国内合成橡胶市场的供需平衡状态，为产业链上下游企业提供市场趋势研判的 量化依据。 隆众资讯分析师郭雅婷介绍，虽然合成橡胶行业2025年受到"反内卷、反倾销"等因素影响，但其产能、 产量均创新高水平。其中丁苯橡胶行业利润趋势可观，且供应量保持高位状态的影响下，景气指数迎来 反弹，处于景气区间的高位水平。 "当前合成橡胶行业正处于由传统能源化工迈向高端新材料的关键节点，产业生态的健康度、稳定性和 前瞻性直接关系到下游新能源汽车、轨道交通、航空航天、生物医疗等战略性新兴产业的原材料安全与 创新步伐。"合成橡胶协会秘书长李锦山表示，编制行业指数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - term bullish rating on butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical cycle has reached an inflection point, and the elasticity of BD/BR has significantly increased. With strong fundamental support for butadiene, the "high -开工, high - inventory" situation of cis - butadiene rubber continues, the number of warehouse receipts increases, and both spot and futures prices rise. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber still has further upward room [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped significantly and then rebounded rapidly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,200 to 12,200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the spot and mainstream supply prices fell continuously due to various factors. In the middle and late weeks, the price of raw materials increased significantly, leading to a rapid disappearance of the bearish sentiment in the spot market [4] 3.2 Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: The weekly output was [data unclear] tons last week, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the output release was limited. Maoming Petrochemical's plant restarted gradually [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Some private cis - butadiene plants in the north had production conversion and slight load reduction. Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance and was expected to restart at the beginning of the next cycle [3] 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel tires**: There was some stocking behavior in the all - season tire market for the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The trading volume of snow tires increased slightly due to low - temperature weather, but the terminal demand still needed further stimulation from snowfall [3] - **All - steel tires**: The market transaction was dull. In December, the industry stocked up a lot to complete purchase tasks. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the inventory digestion is slow. The secondary purchase ability is insufficient this month, and the industry focuses on payment collection [3] 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: The port inventory last week was 34,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.65%. The East China port showed a continuous destocking trend, and it is expected to continue due to reduced arrivals and lower capacity utilization [3] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The total inventory of enterprises and traders was 35,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of producers increased, while that of traders decreased, with a slight overall inventory build - up, and the warehouse receipt inventory pressure was high [3] 3.5 Price and Profit Analysis - **Price**: The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all increased this week. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene in Dalian Hengli increased by 950 yuan/ton from January 19th to January 23rd, with a weekly increase of 10.15% [7][8] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation - dehydrogenation was 1,260 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 2,944.06 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 615 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 4.62% [3] 3.6 Investment and Trading Strategy - **Investment view**: Bullish in the medium and long term [3] - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position and beware of the risk of capital profit - taking and price correction. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term. Short - term semi - steel tire production in some enterprises will remain at a high level due to foreign trade orders, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. All - steel tire enterprises still have device production control to control inventory. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises will change little in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 355 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 96,682, with a week - on - week increase of 2,956. The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 8,120 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 65.24 US dollars/ton, the CFR price of butadiene in China is 710 US dollars/ton, the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with an increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.56 days [2] Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in December was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of January 22, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [2]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 20, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 (-50) CNY/ton, and the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1180 (+0) USD/ton. The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (-100) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3150 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 15 (-80) CNY/ton [1]. Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production reached 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 144,000 tons, up 10.4% month-on-month. The production of semi-steel tires was 58.39 million units, a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The production of all-steel tires was 12.86 million units, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 5.5% year-on-year. As of January 15, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with the butadiene industry operating rate at 69.4%, down 2.7% month-on-month, while the high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 79.7%, up 0.7% month-on-month. The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.5%, up 13.7% month-on-month, and for all-steel tire manufacturers, it was 63%, up 13.5% month-on-month [2]. Inventory Levels - As of January 14, the port inventory of butadiene was 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons month-on-month. The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, up 550 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.09%. The inventory held by traders was 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons, which is an 18.8% month-on-month rise [3]. Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on January 20, the 5,000-ton/year butadiene unit at Maoming Petrochemical has resumed operation, while the downstream SBS unit remains shut down. The 10,000-ton/year butadiene unit is gradually restarting, with downstream styrene-butadiene rubber units also resuming operations [4]. Market Analysis - On January 20, the rubber sector continued to decline, with the main synthetic rubber contract BR2603 closing at 11,585 CNY/ton, down 1.61% from the previous day's settlement price. Starting from the second half of January, multiple domestic butadiene units are set to restart, but due to expectations of increased exports and decreased imports, net import volumes may shrink, leading to a high port inventory that is expected to decline. The supply side shows that some production enterprises in Shandong are selling butadiene resources to alleviate production losses, but the operating rates of styrene-butadiene rubber units remain high, with overall inventory levels also elevated. On the demand side, tire operating rates are expected to recover with the resumption of maintenance enterprises and an increase in export orders. In terms of substitutes, Thailand is still in the peak production season for natural rubber, and the seasonal accumulation of natural rubber in the Qingdao area puts upward pressure on prices. Overall, while the cost side for BR remains firm, the supply side faces significant inventory pressure, and market sentiment is declining, leading to a short-term correction for BR, although the fundamentals are relatively better than natural rubber, suggesting potential for cross-variety arbitrage [5]. Operational Suggestions - Attention is drawn to the opportunity for expanding the price spread between BR2603 and NR2603. The short-term outlook is characterized by volatility [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: January 21, 2026 [3] Report Core Content 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On January 20, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,585, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 665 [4]. - The open interest was 91,002, a daily decrease of 3,182 and a weekly decrease of 9,574 [4]. - The trading volume was 106,084, a daily decrease of 8,713 and a weekly decrease of 70,947 [4]. - The warrant quantity was 24,330, a daily decrease of 1,700 and a weekly decrease of 2,000 [4]. - The long - short ratio was 18.70, with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 0 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -32, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 215 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 315, a daily decrease of 180 and a weekly increase of 315 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was -25, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -40, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,035, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly increase of 125 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,050, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,550, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 450 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 11,450, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 500 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 400 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,550, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit was -340, a daily decrease of 99 and a weekly decrease of 144 [4]. - The import profit was -1,140, a daily decrease of 144 and a weekly decrease of 1,208 [4]. - The export profit was 1,496, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 886 [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 300 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 350 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,550, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - The CFR China price was 1,180, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was -23 on January 19, and data for January 20 was not available [4]. - The C4 extraction profit was 2,742 on January 19, and data for January 20 was not available [4]. - The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 710, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 280 [4]. - The import profit was -132, a daily decrease of 96 and a weekly decrease of 919 [4]. - The export profit was -758, a daily increase of 223 and a weekly increase of 1,926 [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 438, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. - The ABS production profit data after January 17 was not available [4]. - The SBS production profit was -645, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 60 [4].

Report Overview - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][10] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [3][11] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11] Report Content Summary 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on January 15 was 12,190, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly increase of 175 compared to December 17 [4][12]. - The open interest on January 15 was 99,183, a daily decrease of 1,393 and a weekly increase of 72,844 [4][12]. - The trading volume on January 15 was 150,035, a daily decrease of 26,996 and a weekly increase of 48,814 [4][12]. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 26,330, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2,000 [4][12]. - The virtual - real ratio was 18.83, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 13 [4][12]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -190 on January 15, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 125 [4][12]. - The styrene - butadiene spread was 110 on January 15, a daily increase of 110 and a weekly decrease of 75 [4][12]. - The 02 - 03 spread was -60 on January 15, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 10 [4][12]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -35 on January 15, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4][12]. - The RU - BR spread was 3,802 on January 15, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 210 [4][12]. - The NR - BR spread was 660 on January 15, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 275 [4][12]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 12,000 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4][12]. - The Transfar market price was 11,950 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4][12]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,450 on January 15, with no daily change [4][12]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,675 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 40 [4][12]. Profit - The spot processing profit was -273 on January 15, a daily decrease of 77 and a weekly decrease of 384 [4][12]. - The import profit was 75 on January 15, a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 211 [4][12]. - The export profit was 603 on January 15, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly increase of 222 [4][12]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 9,875 on January 15, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 425 [4][12]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,650 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 400 [4][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,550 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 450 [4][12]. - The CFR China price was 1,140 [4][12]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was -33 on January 15, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 9 [4][12]. - The carbon four extraction profit reached 2,648, with subsequent data unavailable [4][12]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 990 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 400 [4][12].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].