1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly synthesis rubber report suggests that the oscillation center has shifted upwards, with the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber decreasing this week and the demand maintaining a year - on - year high growth rate. The inventory has slightly decreased, and the valuation logic has changed. The short - term trading logic is diversified, and the price center has shifted upwards [2][4]. - The weekly butadiene report indicates that butadiene has rebounded in the short term. The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand from synthetic rubber is high, and the inventory is in a destocking state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamentals - Pricing stage: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation to the raw material end [8]. - Capacity expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries in some stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026 [10][12]. - Supply - side: - Production: This cycle (20251205 - 1211), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 113,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. Next week, it is expected to be around 113,400 tons, with limited fluctuations [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate has fluctuated, and some enterprises have carried out maintenance [14][15]. - Net imports: The data shows the monthly import and net import volume trends of butadiene in China [16]. - Demand - side: - Cis - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [18]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026. The operating rate and maintenance situation of some enterprises are provided [20][21][27]. - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [28][30]. - SBS: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [32][33]. - ABS and SBS fundamentals: The operating rate, profit, and inventory data of ABS and SBS are presented [35][36]. - Inventory - side: The weekly enterprise, port, and total inventory data of butadiene show the inventory trends over the years [37][38][39]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - butadiene rubber: - Supply: - Production: This week, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.87%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84 percentage points [4]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data over the years are provided [45][46][47]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [48][49]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise, trader, and futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber show the inventory trends [52][53]. - Demand: The inventory and operating rate data of Shandong Province's all - steel and semi - steel tires are provided, reflecting the demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [56][57].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's synthetic rubber industry, indicating a significant increase in production and a positive outlook for the market from 2026 to 2032 [1] Industry Summary - As of October 2025, China's synthetic rubber production reached 782,000 tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the total production of synthetic rubber in China was 7,387,000 tons, reflecting a growth of 10.9% compared to the previous year [1] - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the synthetic rubber sector include Boshi Co., Ltd. (002698), Yaxing Chemical (600319), Yanggu Huatai (300121), Shuangjian Co., Ltd. (002381), Qixiang Tengda (002408), Haida Co., Ltd. (300320), Ruankong Co., Ltd. (002073), Sinochem International (600500), Sanlisi (002224), and Tongcheng New Materials (603650) [1]

活控产状态，限制整体产能利用率提升幅度，随着成品库存继续攀升，后期不排除个别企业检修或降负运 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 行。br2601合约短线预计在10350-10800区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 105 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10710 | | 86990 | 6444 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 80% stake in Ningbo Aisikai by Daon shares is aimed at extending the industrial chain, enhancing business synergy, and enriching the product variety in the elastomer sector, which is expected to positively impact the company's future development [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Daon shares plans to acquire 80% of Ningbo Aisikai for 516 million yuan, making it a subsidiary and consolidating it into the company's financial statements [1] - The acquisition is based on an assessed net asset value of 647 million yuan for Ningbo Aisikai as of June 30, 2025, reflecting an 88.27% increase in value [2] - The payment for the acquisition will be made in three installments, contingent upon the completion of business registration changes [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The acquisition will enhance Daon shares' product structure and improve its comprehensive value and industry influence in the polymer materials sector [2] - By acquiring the EPDM business, Daon shares will gain critical core technologies in elastomer polymerization, improving both the breadth and depth of its technological capabilities [1][2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Ningbo Aisikai reported a revenue of 569 million yuan and a net profit of 107 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong profitability and cash flow [3] - The integration of Ningbo Aisikai is expected to significantly boost Daon shares' profits and enhance its financial performance, despite a potential short-term cash flow contraction due to the use of self-owned funds for the acquisition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the acquisition of 80% equity in Ningbo Aisikai Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. for 516 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market position in the synthetic rubber industry [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The board meeting is scheduled for December 10, 2025, to approve the acquisition proposal [1] - The acquisition will be funded using the company's own capital [1] - The transaction price does not include the transfer of related patents, proprietary technologies, and trademarks from SK Hong Kong's affiliates, which will be valued at no more than 64.7 million yuan [1] Group 2: Future Actions - As of the announcement date, the intellectual property transfer agreement has not yet been signed [1] - The company will sign the intellectual property transfer agreement with relevant parties before the change registration date, as stipulated in the equity transfer agreement [1]

【产量与开工率】 11月，我国丁二烯产量为48.36万吨，环比+5.8%；我国顺丁橡胶产量为13.03万吨，环比-5.3%；我国半 钢胎产量5831万条，环比+12.8%，1-11月同比+3.2%；我国全钢胎产量为1301万条，环比-5.5%，1-11月 同比+4.8%。 截至12月4日，顺丁橡胶产业上游、中游与下游开工率分化，其中，丁二烯行业开工率为70.4%，环 比-0.8%；高顺顺丁橡胶行业开工率为73.5%，环比+4.8%；半钢胎样本厂家开工率为68.3%，环比 +3.5%；全钢胎样本厂家开工率64%，环比+2%。 【库存】 截至12月3日，丁二烯港口库存41100吨，环比-6200吨；顺丁橡胶厂内库存为27100吨，较上期+200吨， 环比+0.7%；贸易商库存为5230吨，较上期-310吨，环比-5.6%。 【资讯】 隆众资讯12月9日报道：浙江石油化工有限公司10万吨/年镍/钕系顺丁橡胶柔性装置重启后正常运行。 【原料及现货】 截至12月9日，丁二烯山东市场价7250(-50)元/吨；丁二烯CIF中国价格860(+0)美元/吨；顺丁橡胶 (BR9000)山东齐鲁石化（600002）市场价1050 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by the news of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive signs in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample producers increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week. However, the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 27,454, a week - on - week decrease of 2,743; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Brent crude oil was 63.75 US dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 60.08 US dollars/barrel; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 US dollars/ton; Naphtha CFR Japan was 559.75 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 850 US dollars/ton; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 56.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 73.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%; the producer inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.92%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this week, but downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range in the short - term, with the upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and the lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. The NR - BR spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. The butadiene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a low - level oscillation in the medium - term [2][4] - The butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a 4.76% increase from the previous cycle, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, a 3.34 - percentage - point increase. Next cycle, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials are expected to resume production [4] - Some enterprises' production schedules are lower than normal levels, and some enterprises still have maintenance arrangements, which limit the increase in capacity utilization [4] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises is expected to increase next cycle, but the increase is limited due to slow shipment and production control by enterprises. In terms of substitution demand, the NR - BR spread remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation and the cost line of butadiene also providing support. The upper valuation of the disk is around 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Operate weakly within the short - term fundamental valuation range, with upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - This cycle (20251128 - 1204), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,200 tons, a 0.80% decrease from the previous cycle. Next week, it is expected to be about 113,500 tons, an increase from this cycle [5] - Due to the high ethylene cracking start - up in China in the fourth quarter, the domestic butadiene output and imports are at a year - on - year high. However, the Asian regional start - up rate has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in butadiene supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium - term, the start - up rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In the short - term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase in December. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and that from SBS remains stable [4][7] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (20251127 - 1203), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased by 7.41% from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased by 13.11%. As of December 3, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous cycle. The inventory is still at a relatively high level [7] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short - term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, the transaction improves, and the price stabilizes. The Asian butadiene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the fundamental pattern has improved marginally. In the medium - term, the high supply of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5] 3.3 Capacity Expansion 3.3.1 Butadiene - In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, it was 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026. The expansion speed and amplitude of butadiene are slightly faster than those of its downstream industries [12][14] 3.3.2 Downstream Products of Butadiene - **Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [20] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026 [22][23] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1,635,000 tons in 2025 and 1,300,000 tons in 2026 [30][32] - **SBS**: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [34][35]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen rapid development in China's chemical new materials industry, with continuous expansion of industry scale and enhancement of technological innovation capabilities. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on three key paths: pursuing high-end development, promoting green intelligence, and facilitating collaboration [1] Pursuing High-End Development - There is a significant imbalance in the development of chemical new materials in China, necessitating enhanced R&D for high-end materials. The self-sufficiency rate for engineering plastics is improving, but high-end products like optical-grade PC and medical polyether ether ketone have a domestic production rate of less than 30% [2] - The electronic chemicals sector faces challenges with insufficient high-end products. While mature processes have achieved domestic production for certain chemicals, the overall domestic production rate for advanced process chemicals remains low, indicating a critical area for future development [2] Promoting Green Intelligence - Green transformation is becoming a global imperative. The engineering plastics industry is encouraged to transition towards a "green circular" model, focusing on bio-based alternatives, recycling, and clean production methods [4] - The synthetic rubber industry is directed towards "green symbiosis" and "intelligent integration," emphasizing the development of bio-based and green materials, as well as the application of artificial intelligence to optimize production processes [4] Facilitating Collaboration - Collaborative innovation is essential for overcoming industry development bottlenecks. The engineering plastics sector is advised to establish a comprehensive collaborative innovation system, integrating various stages from monomer synthesis to application verification [5] - Standardization is highlighted as a crucial support for the electronic chemicals industry, with a need for a complete standard system to enhance consensus between chemical producers and downstream chip manufacturers [6]

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