合成橡胶市场供需
Search documents
合成橡胶产业日报-20251230
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 08:51
本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11565 | -35 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 49563 | -9640 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -25 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11450 | 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11450 | 150 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11500 | 东(日,元/吨) 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 1 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20251218
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 09:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 in the short term. The supply pressure of the synthetic rubber industry remains high due to high levels of circulating resources and production device loads. On the demand side, tire companies are operating with weak capacity utilization, entering the seasonal off - season, with slow overall shipment rhythms and rising finished product inventories. Some companies have production suspension or limitation due to production and sales pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the main contract position was 101,376, a decrease of 4,040. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,560 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers (Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, etc.) increased by 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. Brent crude oil was 59.68 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.76 dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan was 532.88 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.75 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 870 dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 55.94 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.67 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 8,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 55.9%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber in November was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 71.57%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.07%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.58 days, an increase of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.51 days, an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. In November, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points compared with the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points compared with the same period last year. As of December 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20251208
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 09:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by the news of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive signs in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample producers increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week. However, the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 27,454, a week - on - week decrease of 2,743; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Brent crude oil was 63.75 US dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 60.08 US dollars/barrel; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 US dollars/ton; Naphtha CFR Japan was 559.75 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 850 US dollars/ton; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 56.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 73.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%; the producer inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.92%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this week, but downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance [2].
合成橡胶震荡筑底
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 02:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber futures market currently shows a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price of butadiene at the cost - end is weakly oscillating. The supply - side capacity utilization rate has increased, while the demand - side is weak. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillating bottom - building trend in the future, and the rubber price in December lacks the impetus for continuous rise [2][5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Supply - side Situation - In the butadiene market, due to the normal operation of some domestic petrochemical plants and new device production, as well as the expected high import volume, the supply is in a continuous loose pattern. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's butadiene rubber was 68.13%, down 3.27 percentage points from the previous month but up 0.53 percentage points year - on - year. The output was 13.01 tons, down 0.75 tons month - on - month with a decline of 5.44% but up 8.43% year - on - year. The inventory continued to grow. By the end of November, the inventory of sample enterprises reached 3.24 tons, up 5.05% from the end of October, and the warehouse receipts of synthetic rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 1.54 tons, up 79.25% from the end of October [3]. Demand - side Situation - The tire industry, the largest consumer area of synthetic rubber, performed below expectations in November. Affected by seasonal demand decline and trade barriers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased. As of the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points week - on - week and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points week - on - week and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. Since semi - steel tires use more synthetic rubber, the significant decline in their capacity utilization rate highlights the slowdown in synthetic rubber demand [4]. Inventory and Future Outlook - With the weakening of tire enterprises' material demand, the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is further highlighted. The average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire enterprises increased to 45.86 days, and that of all - steel tires was 40.24 days. High inventory led to low procurement willingness of tire factories. It is expected that this situation will continue in December, dragging down the overall output. Other downstream industries have no growth highlights. In general, the supply of synthetic rubber futures will remain abundant in the future, and the demand is not optimistic. The rubber price in December is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [5].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250923
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:05
Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F03139610 - Futures Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0021558 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation focus on the spot side is under continuous pressure. However, due to the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises, the inventory level is expected to continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some enterprises face export pressure. The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced [2]. - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position volume was 65,588, a decrease of 4,718 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 10 - 11 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,610 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers had some fluctuations. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 66.57 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.11 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 62.28 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 845 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of CFR China butadiene was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of CFR Japan naphtha was 595.63 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.12 dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 51.85%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons [2]. - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons [2]. 3. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days [2]. 4. Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% [2]. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. 5. Key Points of Attention - No news today [2]
合成橡胶:海外丁二烯供应预期下降 提振BR上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-29 02:11
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 28, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9590 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1095 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2900 yuan/ton and a basis of -30 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up 3% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, up 5.5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 56.97 million units, down 1.1% month-on-month but up 7.8% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.75 million units, up 1% month-on-month and up 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 28, the operating rate for the butadiene industry is 67.9%, down 0.4% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 75.8%, up 9.7% month-on-month; the operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 71%, down 1.3% month-on-month; the operating rate for full-steel tire manufacturers is 65%, down 0.1% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 27, butadiene port inventory is 24,000 tons, down 3,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 25,100 tons, up 1,900 tons, an increase of 8.2% month-on-month; trader inventory is 6,620 tons, down 790 tons, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month [3] - During the period from August 21 to August 27, domestic butadiene sample total inventory decreased by approximately 5.69% week-on-week, with sample enterprise inventory slightly down 0.16% week-on-week; port inventory decreased by 12.09% week-on-week due to limited ship arrivals and normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory [4] Market Analysis - On August 28, it was reported that the supply of butadiene from Singapore and India is expected to decline, boosting BR prices, with the main synthetic rubber contract BR2510 closing at 11,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the previous day's settlement price; there are no significant expectations for an increase in domestic butadiene production in the near term, while the main downstream industries maintain decent operating rates [5] - The supply side indicates that after multiple styrene-butadiene rubber facilities resume operations, production will continue to grow, but overall inventory reduction will be limited; on the demand side, semi-steel tire inventory remains high, increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it difficult to raise operating rates for semi-steel tires, while full-steel tire operating rates remain stable overall [5]
合成橡胶:供应未如期增量 丁二烯坚挺 且天胶走强 提振BR上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-08 02:06
Price and Market Overview - As of August 7, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9375 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1090 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11550 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up by 3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, up by 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 56.97 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month but up by 7.8% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.75 million units, up by 1% month-on-month and up by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 7, the operating rate of the butadiene industry is 69.8%, down by 0.3% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber is 68.2%, down by 5.9% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers is 69.7%, down by 0.4% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers is 60.1%, up by 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, the port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, up by 4,300 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, up by 350 tons, a 1.5% increase [3] - The inventory of traders is 7,290 tons, down by 230 tons, a 3.1% decrease [3] Market Insights - As of August 7, the supply of butadiene has not increased as expected, leading to a stable price, while natural rubber prices have strengthened, boosting BR prices [5] - The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,535 CNY/ton, with a 0.22% increase compared to the previous settlement price [5] - Despite some butadiene production facilities restarting, there are also ongoing maintenance activities, leading to a slight decrease in domestic production [5] - The expected increase in butadiene imports in August may not meet expectations due to shipping schedules concentrated in the latter half of the month [5] - The supply side shows a mix of restarts and short-term shutdowns, with limited inventory reduction expected for styrene-butadiene rubber [5] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains high, with increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it challenging to raise operating rates [5] - Overall, while cost support remains, the supply-demand balance for BR is expected to be loose, leading to short-term fluctuations [5]
合成橡胶:丁二烯装置临时停车 BR延续大幅上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-15 02:19
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 14, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1,030 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 12,650 yuan/ton, up by 500 yuan [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2,270 yuan, an increase of 350 yuan [1] - The basis is 270 yuan, up by 325 yuan [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 3.8% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 121,500 tons, down by 5.2% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.39 million units, a decrease of 7.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77% [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 13.08 million units, down by 4.5% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% [2] - As of May 8, the operating rate of the butadiene industry was 69.4%, an increase of 0.7% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber was 74.7%, an increase of 4% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 46.7%, a decrease of 30% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 41.7%, a decrease of 30% [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 14, the port inventory of butadiene was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, down by 1,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% [3] - The inventory of traders was 5,470 tons, down by 430 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [3] Market Insights - As of May 14, the inventory of butadiene at East China ports was approximately 30,870 tons, significantly down by 6,030 tons [4] - Recent shipments to ports have been limited, and downstream raw material inventories are being consumed normally, leading to a significant decrease in port inventories [4] - By May 14, 2025, the inventory of high-styrene butadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,100 tons, down by 1,400 tons, a decrease of 4.26% [4] - The price of butadiene continues to rise due to strong demand and unexpected supply-side maintenance, while production costs for styrene-butadiene rubber have surged [4] - The easing of US-China tariff issues has positively impacted the market, although challenges remain for the automotive and parts sectors [4] Analysis - On May 14, Hengli Petrochemical's butadiene unit underwent temporary maintenance, leading to a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2506 closing at 12,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.7% [5] - The butadiene market is currently experiencing strong supply-demand dynamics, with high downstream operating rates and rising supplier prices [5] - Despite the short-term strength in costs, medium-term upward drivers appear limited due to increased supply of styrene-butadiene rubber and potential demand declines from the automotive sector [5] - The natural rubber market is under pressure due to delayed harvesting in Thailand, while domestic production is progressing smoothly [5] Operational Recommendations - It is suggested to adopt a low-price strategy for BR2507-BR2509 [6] - The short-term outlook indicates a strong market trend [6]