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合成橡胶产业日报-20250923
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:05
Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F03139610 - Futures Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0021558 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation focus on the spot side is under continuous pressure. However, due to the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises, the inventory level is expected to continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some enterprises face export pressure. The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced [2]. - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position volume was 65,588, a decrease of 4,718 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 10 - 11 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,610 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers had some fluctuations. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 66.57 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.11 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 62.28 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 845 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of CFR China butadiene was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of CFR Japan naphtha was 595.63 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.12 dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 51.85%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons [2]. - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons [2]. 3. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days [2]. 4. Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% [2]. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. 5. Key Points of Attention - No news today [2]
合成橡胶:海外丁二烯供应预期下降 提振BR上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-29 02:11
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 28, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9590 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1095 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2900 yuan/ton and a basis of -30 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up 3% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, up 5.5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 56.97 million units, down 1.1% month-on-month but up 7.8% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.75 million units, up 1% month-on-month and up 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 28, the operating rate for the butadiene industry is 67.9%, down 0.4% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 75.8%, up 9.7% month-on-month; the operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 71%, down 1.3% month-on-month; the operating rate for full-steel tire manufacturers is 65%, down 0.1% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 27, butadiene port inventory is 24,000 tons, down 3,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 25,100 tons, up 1,900 tons, an increase of 8.2% month-on-month; trader inventory is 6,620 tons, down 790 tons, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month [3] - During the period from August 21 to August 27, domestic butadiene sample total inventory decreased by approximately 5.69% week-on-week, with sample enterprise inventory slightly down 0.16% week-on-week; port inventory decreased by 12.09% week-on-week due to limited ship arrivals and normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory [4] Market Analysis - On August 28, it was reported that the supply of butadiene from Singapore and India is expected to decline, boosting BR prices, with the main synthetic rubber contract BR2510 closing at 11,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the previous day's settlement price; there are no significant expectations for an increase in domestic butadiene production in the near term, while the main downstream industries maintain decent operating rates [5] - The supply side indicates that after multiple styrene-butadiene rubber facilities resume operations, production will continue to grow, but overall inventory reduction will be limited; on the demand side, semi-steel tire inventory remains high, increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it difficult to raise operating rates for semi-steel tires, while full-steel tire operating rates remain stable overall [5]
合成橡胶:供应未如期增量 丁二烯坚挺 且天胶走强 提振BR上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-08 02:06
Price and Market Overview - As of August 7, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9375 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1090 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11550 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up by 3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, up by 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 56.97 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month but up by 7.8% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.75 million units, up by 1% month-on-month and up by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 7, the operating rate of the butadiene industry is 69.8%, down by 0.3% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber is 68.2%, down by 5.9% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers is 69.7%, down by 0.4% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers is 60.1%, up by 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, the port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, up by 4,300 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, up by 350 tons, a 1.5% increase [3] - The inventory of traders is 7,290 tons, down by 230 tons, a 3.1% decrease [3] Market Insights - As of August 7, the supply of butadiene has not increased as expected, leading to a stable price, while natural rubber prices have strengthened, boosting BR prices [5] - The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,535 CNY/ton, with a 0.22% increase compared to the previous settlement price [5] - Despite some butadiene production facilities restarting, there are also ongoing maintenance activities, leading to a slight decrease in domestic production [5] - The expected increase in butadiene imports in August may not meet expectations due to shipping schedules concentrated in the latter half of the month [5] - The supply side shows a mix of restarts and short-term shutdowns, with limited inventory reduction expected for styrene-butadiene rubber [5] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains high, with increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it challenging to raise operating rates [5] - Overall, while cost support remains, the supply-demand balance for BR is expected to be loose, leading to short-term fluctuations [5]
合成橡胶:丁二烯装置临时停车 BR延续大幅上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-15 02:19
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 14, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1,030 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 12,650 yuan/ton, up by 500 yuan [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2,270 yuan, an increase of 350 yuan [1] - The basis is 270 yuan, up by 325 yuan [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 3.8% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 121,500 tons, down by 5.2% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.39 million units, a decrease of 7.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77% [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 13.08 million units, down by 4.5% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% [2] - As of May 8, the operating rate of the butadiene industry was 69.4%, an increase of 0.7% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber was 74.7%, an increase of 4% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 46.7%, a decrease of 30% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 41.7%, a decrease of 30% [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 14, the port inventory of butadiene was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, down by 1,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% [3] - The inventory of traders was 5,470 tons, down by 430 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [3] Market Insights - As of May 14, the inventory of butadiene at East China ports was approximately 30,870 tons, significantly down by 6,030 tons [4] - Recent shipments to ports have been limited, and downstream raw material inventories are being consumed normally, leading to a significant decrease in port inventories [4] - By May 14, 2025, the inventory of high-styrene butadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,100 tons, down by 1,400 tons, a decrease of 4.26% [4] - The price of butadiene continues to rise due to strong demand and unexpected supply-side maintenance, while production costs for styrene-butadiene rubber have surged [4] - The easing of US-China tariff issues has positively impacted the market, although challenges remain for the automotive and parts sectors [4] Analysis - On May 14, Hengli Petrochemical's butadiene unit underwent temporary maintenance, leading to a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2506 closing at 12,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.7% [5] - The butadiene market is currently experiencing strong supply-demand dynamics, with high downstream operating rates and rising supplier prices [5] - Despite the short-term strength in costs, medium-term upward drivers appear limited due to increased supply of styrene-butadiene rubber and potential demand declines from the automotive sector [5] - The natural rubber market is under pressure due to delayed harvesting in Thailand, while domestic production is progressing smoothly [5] Operational Recommendations - It is suggested to adopt a low-price strategy for BR2507-BR2509 [6] - The short-term outlook indicates a strong market trend [6]