大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 1/7 农产品日报 2025 年 06 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3591 | 3565 | 26 | 01-05 | 237 | 245 | -8 | | JD05 | 3354 | 3320 | 34 | 05-09 | -301 | -354 | 53 | | JD09 | 3655 | 3674 | -19 | 09-01 | 64 | 109 | -45 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...

25年3-4月补栏量依旧较高，对应25年7-8月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力 增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。 6月5日全国鸡蛋生产环节平均库存0.94天，较前一天增0.02天；流通环节库存1.03天，较前一天持平。 消息面回顾： 周四，主产区鸡蛋均价为2.84元/斤，较前日持平，主销区鸡蛋均价为3.06元/斤，较前日持平。鸡蛋单 斤成本约3.5元，同比下降3.85%，窄幅震荡。 截至2025年6月6日当周，鸡蛋期货主力合约收于2859元/500千克，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持 5300手。 本周（6月3日-6月6日）市场上看，鸡蛋期货周内开盘报2930元/500千克，最高触及2933元/500千克，最 低下探至2856元/500千克，周度涨跌幅达-2.46%。 机构观点汇总： 方正中期期货：基本面上，当前整体消费即将进入淡季，鸡蛋将会再次进入年度供强需弱，蛋价迎来季 节性次低点。2025年上半年蛋鸡产业周期可能继续下行，蛋价中期跌破养殖成本的概率仍然较高。操作 上，农产品整体氛围出现反复，拖累蛋价重心下移，鸡蛋期价绝对价格偏低，0 ...

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-06-04 将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性，对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 盘面来看，现货价格持续处于低位，拖累期价总体偏弱，不过，远月跌势明显放缓，短期暂且观望。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2877 | -20 ...

Core Insights - The egg prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and supply pressure, with average prices in major production areas showing a downward trend [1][4] - As of June 3, the national average egg prices in various regions are reported, with notable prices in Shandong at 6.90 yuan/kg and Fujian at 7.00 yuan/kg [2] - The futures market shows a decline in egg futures, with the main contract closing at 2897.00 yuan/500 kg, down 1.16% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of May, the monthly sales volume of eggs in major consumption areas is 37,200 tons, a decrease of 5.68% compared to April [3] - The inventory levels in the production and circulation stages are at historically low levels, with production inventory at 0.98 days and circulation inventory at 1.07 days [3] - The number of laying hens as of May 2025 is 1.334 billion, showing a slight increase compared to previous months, indicating a high supply level [3] Market Dynamics - The firm corn prices are providing cost support for egg production, while the current egg prices are at a low level for the year, leading to replenishment demand in the market [4] - High levels of laying hen inventory and increased production pressure from newly added hens are contributing to a sufficient supply of eggs [4] - The impact of hot and humid weather is raising storage costs for eggs, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream distributors [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.30」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货持续偏低运行 期价维持低位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋低位震荡，09合约收盘价为3757元/500千克，较前一周-5元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑，且蛋价处于年内地位，市场逢低有补货需求， 叠加端午节前备货带来一定的支撑。不过，目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压 力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。且受湿热天气影响，鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采购谨慎，蛋 价处于同期偏低水平。如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积 极性，对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，现货价格持续处于低 位，拖累期价总体偏弱。 「 期现市场情况 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货再度转跌 期价维持低位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡微跌，09合约收盘价为3762元/500千克，较前一周-26元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑，且蛋价处于年内地位，市场逢低有补货需求， 且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑。不过，目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压 力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足，供强需弱格局难改。如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘 汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性，对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面 来看，现货价格持续处于低位，拖累期价总体低位偏弱震荡。 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 4 Ø 鸡蛋期货09合约震荡微跌，持仓量88094手，较前一周+7908 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.98 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas is 3.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [3][6]. - In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - In the week of May 16, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. As of the week of May 15, the average culling age of culled hens was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - As of the week of May 15, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.12 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week. On May 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan per bird, an increase of 0.8 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the price of culled hens across the country decreased, and the average price in the main production areas was 4.99 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.04 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - Options: Wait and see [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.01 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is approximately 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatch and Culling**: In April, the monthly chick hatch volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From May 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of May 15th was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of May 15th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 8716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 16th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.12 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.8 yuan/jin from the previous week. Today, the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 5.03 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8][9]. II. Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. III. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Wait and see [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 鸡蛋市场周报 存栏压力牵制下 期价维持低位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡微涨，09合约收盘价为3788元/500千克，较前一周+21元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑，且连续走低后，蛋价处于年内地位，市场逢低 有补货需求，且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑，现货价格有止跌回弹倾向。不过，目前蛋鸡存 栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足，供强需弱格局难改，或限 制其上涨空间。如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性， 对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，期价跌至前期低位后，总体 跌势放缓。 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 1、周度要点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent detection of antibiotic residues in "antibiotic-free" eggs sold by Hema has sparked significant consumer anxiety regarding food safety, raising questions about the reliability of such labels in the market [1][3][14]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On May 8, the Shandong Provincial Market Supervision Administration announced that a batch of "antibiotic-free" eggs from Hema was found to contain excessive levels of veterinary drug residues, including banned substances [1][3]. - The specific antibiotics detected were dimetridazole and trimethoprim, with the latter exceeding the maximum residue limit set by national standards [5][14]. - The affected eggs were sold by Qingdao Hema Network Technology Co., Ltd. and sourced from Xiaochi Egg Industry (Shandong) Co., Ltd. [3][5]. Group 2: Consumer Reaction - Consumers expressed disbelief and anger upon discovering that the "antibiotic-free" eggs they had been purchasing for years were not safe, leading to a surge in refund requests [9][10]. - Social media platforms saw a rapid increase in discussions and tutorials on how to obtain refunds for the affected eggs, highlighting the urgency of the situation [9][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The incident has led to a broader trust crisis in the market for "antibiotic-free" eggs, with consumers questioning the safety of all egg products [14][19]. - The concept of "antibiotic-free" eggs emerged in response to public concerns over antibiotic residues in food, but the lack of a unified national standard for such products has created confusion [19][22]. - The price of "antibiotic-free" eggs is significantly higher than regular eggs, with some consumers now questioning whether the premium is justified given the recent findings [23][25]. Group 4: Industry Standards and Practices - The absence of clear and consistent standards for "antibiotic-free" labeling allows for varying interpretations among producers, leading to potential consumer deception [19][22]. - The incident has prompted discussions about the need for stricter regulations and clearer definitions regarding what constitutes "antibiotic-free" products in the market [19][22]. - The reliance on self-regulation by companies, such as the claims made by producers about their products, raises concerns about accountability and consumer safety [19][22].