Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

Core Viewpoint - The postal industry plays a crucial role in modernizing services, promoting consumption, and facilitating circulation, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation in response to national strategies [1][2][3] Group 1: Service Enhancement - The postal service aims to improve public service equality, enhancing accessibility and stability, with all remote villages achieving direct mail delivery [1] - Express logistics are being optimized for speed, quality, cost reduction, and market expansion, significantly boosting competitive capabilities [1] - Postal Savings Bank is actively supporting rural areas, urban residents, and SMEs, with revenue and profit growth leading among state-owned banks, maintaining a top position in global banking rankings [1] Group 2: Support for National Strategies - The postal service is committed to rural revitalization, developing tailored service systems for local industries and enhancing logistics and financial systems [2] - It is integrating with modern industries like manufacturing and commerce, exploring innovative service models to improve supply chain efficiency [2] - The organization is focused on supporting major regional strategies and ensuring service guarantees in key areas [2] Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The company is advancing digital postal services, with significant applications in logistics and finance, transitioning to intelligent and automated operations [3] - The theme for World Post Day emphasizes the commitment to serving the public and enhancing connectivity through a robust postal network [3] Group 4: Core Functions and Transformation - The postal service is enhancing universal service quality and playing a leading role in logistics, ensuring stability in disaster response and supply chain security [4] - It is shifting focus from consumer needs to also include production demands and national emergency services, enhancing collaborative efforts [4] Group 5: Circular Economy and Rural Support - The organization is leveraging its extensive network to improve circulation and service delivery, addressing challenges in rural sales, logistics, and financing [5] - It aims to create a comprehensive support system for rural revitalization, integrating logistics, storage, and financial services [5] Group 6: International Cooperation and Development - The postal service is strengthening international collaborations to enhance service offerings and resource integration, benefiting urban and rural development [6] - The organization is committed to high-quality development and connectivity, contributing to national modernization and revitalization efforts [6]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in economic output [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [2] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities have accelerated, with the production index reaching 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high [1] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating improved market demand [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.0%, indicating stability, while the service sector index is slightly higher at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [2] - Certain industries, including postal, telecommunications, and financial services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating strong growth [2] - However, sectors closely related to consumer spending, such as dining and entertainment, have seen indices drop below the critical point due to the end of the summer season [2] Economic Outlook - The production and operation activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations for the near term [2] - Analysts predict that the "year-end effect" and "holiday effect" will boost investment and consumption-related demand, particularly in construction and service sectors [2] - Overall, the macroeconomic environment is expected to continue improving in the fourth quarter, supported by potential policy measures and market confidence [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In September 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[13] - New orders index was at 49.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points but still in the contraction zone[13] Group 2: Raw Materials and Pricing - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased slightly to 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points[19] - The procurement volume index rose to 51.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated raw material purchases[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index fell to 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, with notable sector differentiation[22] - The construction business activity index was at 49.3%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the critical point[26] Group 4: Economic Policy and Risks - The government announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan to support project capital, aimed at boosting infrastructure activities[27] - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[28]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace equipment showed production and new order indices above 54.0%, indicating rapid demand release [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - The procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing production, as companies accelerated raw material purchases [1] - The new export orders index rose to 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of increase, supported by stable performance in traditional export sectors [2] - The production-related indices indicate a steady increase in manufacturing activities since the second half of the year, with supply-side vitality continuing to rise [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in the sector [3] - The service sector business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, with sectors like postal and financial services showing strong growth [3] - The financial sector's business activity index has risen above 60% for two consecutive months, indicating robust performance and support for the real economy [3] Group 4: Future Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for September is 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting positive market outlook among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The service sector business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future development [4] - Experts anticipate a demand surge in the restaurant and entertainment sectors due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which may boost industry performance [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, showing a slight decline from the previous month [1][5] - Overall, the composite PMI output index increased to 50.6%, suggesting a slight acceleration in economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index reaching 51.9%, the highest in nearly six months [2] - The new orders index improved to 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in market demand [2] - Key industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace showed strong production and new orders indices above 54.0% [2][3] - Small enterprises saw a PMI increase to 48.2%, while large enterprises maintained a stable expansion with a PMI of 51.0% [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion [5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly improved to 49.3%, reflecting a marginal recovery [5] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector remained optimistic at 56.3%, indicating stable growth expectations [5][6] Market Outlook - Analysts expect macroeconomic conditions to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by policy support and seasonal demand factors [4][6] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to continue its stable growth, supported by favorable market prices and completion of annual business targets [4] - The construction and service sectors are expected to see a rebound in activity due to year-end effects and holiday demand [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][2] - The production index rose to 51.9%, the highest in nearly six months, reflecting active manufacturing production [5] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, showing a slight improvement in market demand [5] - Small enterprises' PMI increased by 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%, indicating an improvement in their economic conditions [5] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods have PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [5] - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 54.1%, indicating a positive outlook for market development [5] Group 2: Services Sector - The services business activity index for September is 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [6] - Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating rapid growth [6] - The business activity expectation index for the services sector is at 56.3%, reflecting stable optimism among service enterprises [7] Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [8] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are 51.9% and 50.0% respectively, contributing to the composite index's growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for September indicates a slight acceleration in overall economic output in China, with the manufacturing PMI showing improvement while the non-manufacturing index remains stable at the critical point of 50.0% [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in economic conditions [2] - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, suggesting improved market demand [2] - Key industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace showed production and new orders indices above 54.0%, indicating robust activity, while sectors like wood processing and non-metallic mineral products fell below the critical threshold [2][3] - Small enterprises saw a PMI increase to 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in their economic conditions [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability in overall business volume [4] - The service sector maintained an expansion with a business activity index of 50.1%, supported by strong performance in postal, telecommunications, and financial services [4] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly improved to 49.3%, reflecting a small recovery in construction activity [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, standing at 51.9% and 50.0% respectively [5]