Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has risen over 1.9%, indicating ongoing support for the industry's long-term prosperity [1] - In the thermal coal sector, supply is tightening due to reduced coal mine production and decreased railway shipments, while demand is increasing as power plants consume more coal due to cold weather [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to tighten supply further, with downstream inventory replenishment anticipated before the holiday, supporting thermal coal prices [1] Group 2 - The coking coal production is limited before the holiday, and imports have decreased, but prices remain resilient due to strong pre-sale orders and expectations of steel mill production recovery [1] - The coking coal market shows no significant supply-demand imbalance, although the steel market is weakening, which has temporarily halted the first round of price increases for coke [1] - The coal mining industry is expected to experience price fluctuations and dynamic rebalancing, driven by rising labor costs and increased safety and environmental investments [1] Group 3 - The coal ETF (515220) has a scale exceeding 8 billion yuan, tracking the CSI Coal Index (399998), which has a high dividend yield [2] - The tracked index is projected to have a dividend yield exceeding 6% over the next 12 months, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The "overproduction check" effect continues to push up the coal price center, with demand fluctuations causing rapid price changes. From July to December 2025, domestic raw coal production fell for six consecutive months year-on-year, significantly improving the coal supply-demand balance. The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rose from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 689 RMB/ton on January 20, 2026. In Q4 2025, despite significant monthly fluctuations in coal demand, the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 RMB/ton in Q3 to 765 RMB/ton in Q4, a rise of 13.8% [4][5] - The profitability of the sector is expected to rebound, with coking coal enterprises likely to see significant improvements. The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q4 2025 is reported at 765 RMB/ton, up 13.8% quarter-on-quarter. The long-term contract price for thermal coal also increased, with the average price for Q4 reported at 685 RMB/ton, up 2.3% [4][5] - Production levels are stable, with fluctuations among listed coal companies. The "overproduction check" policy strictly requires that annual production does not exceed announced capacity, impacting production levels in the second half of 2025. Major listed coal companies showed mixed production results in Q4, with China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reporting decreases of 5.0% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [4][5] - Cost control remains a key focus, although rising coal prices and year-end cost settlements may increase costs. In H1 2025, coal prices declined, prompting companies to shift from volume-based strategies to cost control. As coal prices rebound, costs are expected to rise slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][5] - The sector's performance is expected to continue its positive trend into Q4 2025, with anticipated earnings growth. The coal price has shown a quarterly step-down trend, but Q4 2025 is expected to see a rebound in performance due to rising coal prices [4][5] Summary by Sections - **Performance of the Sector**: The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased significantly in Q4 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector's profitability [4][5] - **Production and Supply**: The "overproduction check" policy has led to a decrease in production, stabilizing the supply-demand balance [4][5] - **Cost Management**: Companies are focusing on cost control, with expectations of slight increases in costs due to rising coal prices [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The coal sector is expected to see continued performance improvement into 2026, driven by supply-side policy changes and price rebounds [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining sector experienced a rise of 2.87% on January 26, with China Shenhua leading the gains, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Shenhua closed at 41.65, up 4.13%, with a trading volume of 685,700 shares and a transaction value of 2.828 billion [1] - Other notable performers included Tuokun Energy, which rose by 3.32% to 14.31, and Huai Bei Mining, which increased by 3.30% to 12.22 [1] - The coal mining sector's stocks showed a mixed performance, with some stocks experiencing declines, such as Zhengmei Electric, which fell by 4.81% to 4.35 [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 617 million in main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 656 million [2] - Major stocks like China Shenhua had a net inflow of 239 million from main funds, but a significant outflow of 203 million from retail investors [3] - Shaanxi Coal and Energy also reported a net inflow of 152 million from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest despite retail selling pressure [3]

型及広 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动,有望支撑 委员 娱炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 23 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500动力煤现货价收报 514、599、685元/吨，环比-8、-9、-10 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.11 万吨，环比上周减少 0.6 万 吨,降幅 0.39%,同比下降 4.12%,产地生产正常,降雪对运输的影响已消除。需求 端,寒潮来 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the leading coal producer in Mongolia, with a strong geographical advantage near the Chinese market. It is diversifying beyond coal into gold and copper, which are expected to contribute significantly to future profits [5][13]. - The gold business, initiated with the BKH gold mine, is projected to generate over $100 million in net profit by 2026, marking a substantial second growth curve for the company [5][6]. - The copper business, through the acquisition of UCC, is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, with plans for feasibility studies on the White Hill copper deposit [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest private mining enterprise in Mongolia, primarily engaged in coal production and export, with ongoing diversification into gold and copper [13]. - It was the first Mongolian company to list on the international capital market, with significant assets located in the Tavan Tolgoi coalfield [13][15]. Coal Business - The company operates two major coal mines, UHG and BN, with substantial coal reserves of 340 million tons and 272 million tons respectively, primarily producing high-quality hard coking coal [24][25]. - In 2024, the company achieved a peak raw coal production of 16.34 million tons, with a significant increase in sales through competitive bidding [39][41]. - The average selling price of coal is influenced by domestic market trends, with recent prices at $106 and $121 per ton for 2023 and 2024 respectively [44]. Gold Business - The BKH gold mine commenced commercial production in September 2025, with expectations to reach full production of 85,000 ounces by 2027 [5][6]. - The low All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of the gold business positions it as a high-margin contributor to the company's overall profitability [5]. Copper Business - The acquisition of a 50.5% stake in UCC provides access to the White Hill copper-gold project, which contains approximately 185,000 tons of copper and 52,000 ounces of gold [5][6]. - The company plans to conduct feasibility studies on the copper deposit to further reduce reliance on coal [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of $0.93 million, $2.63 million, and $3.77 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of less than 7 for 2026 [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Lu'an Environmental Energy has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in stock price recently but a significant decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 26, Lu'an Environmental Energy's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 13.21 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.80 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.97%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 39.517 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 11.95%, with a 4.43% rise over the last five trading days and a 10.08% increase over the last 20 days, while it has decreased by 11.64% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Lu'an Environmental Energy reported an operating revenue of 21.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 20.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.554 billion CNY, down 44.45% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 25.851 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 14.505 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of January 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Lu'an Environmental Energy increased to 83,000, reflecting a 2.47% rise, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.41% to 36,041 shares [2]. - Notable institutional shareholders include Guotai Junan CSI Coal ETF, which is the third-largest shareholder with 47.291 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 39.944 million shares, a decrease of 4.797 million shares from the previous period [3].

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动，有望支撑煤价 反弹 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资提示： | 1．近期行业政策及动态 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2．产地动力煤价环比下跌、焦煤价环比持平 | 5 | | 3．国际油价上涨 | 6 | | 4．环渤海港口库存环比下降 | 7 | | 5．国内沿海运费环比上涨 | 8 | | 6．重点公司估值表 | 9 | | 7．风险提示 | 9 | ⚫ 动力煤 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China Shenhua's stock has shown a slight increase, with a current price of 40.82 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 811.03 billion CNY, indicating a stable performance in the market [1] - As of January 26, the stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 0.79%, a 5-day increase of 0.29%, a 20-day increase of 1.72%, and a 60-day decrease of 2.95% [1] - The company primarily engages in coal and electricity production and sales, with coal accounting for 75.23% of its revenue, followed by electricity at 29.35% [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for China Shenhua reached 209,200, an increase of 29.69% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 23.09% to 79,468 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, China Shenhua reported a revenue of 213.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.05 billion CNY, down 15.24% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 480.47 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 159.94 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. has shown fluctuations in stock performance and financial metrics, with a notable decrease in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of January 26, the stock price of China Coal Energy increased by 2.07% to 13.33 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 176.738 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 7.15%, with a 1.83% increase over the last five trading days and a 4.96% increase over the last 20 days, while it has decreased by 3.41% over the last 60 days [1] - The company's main business segments include coal business (81.03% of revenue), coal chemical business (12.48%), and coal mining equipment manufacturing (6.24%) [1] Group 3 - For the period from January to September 2025, China Coal Energy reported operating revenue of 110.584 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.485 billion CNY, down 14.57% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 45.074 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 21.386 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 4 - As of October 31, the number of shareholders of China Coal Energy was 82,300, a decrease of 11.46% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person remained unchanged at 121,724 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 336 million shares, and Guotai Junan CSI Coal ETF, which increased its holdings by 44.101 million shares to 72.507 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].