周末两天，比特币强劲拉升。 截至发稿，比特币涨近3%，涨至86600美元上方，盘中一度突破87000美元，其余加密货币，以太坊， 狗狗币等也大幅上涨。 CoinGlass网站数据显示，近24小时内，加密货币共有超11万人爆仓。 值得注意的是，上周五（11月21日），美股迎来久违反弹，主要原因还是美联储三号人物威廉姆斯周五 的讲话，押注再次转向更高的降息概率。 威廉姆斯表示，"在不久的将来"降息可能是合理的，这推动投资者提高了对12月降息的预期。 责编：彭勃 校对：王朝全 美国财长贝森特表示，利率敏感行业正处于衰退期，但对（此类行业）2026年的增长前景充满信心。 不过，就在11月22日，波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯表示，她认为美联储没有在12月继续降息的必要。 这番表态进一步凸显出决策者对未来货币政策行动的分歧。 据报道，自10月29日政策会议以来，美联储主席鲍威尔本人尚未公开发言。目前12名有投票权的联邦公 开市场委员会成员中，已有5人表态倾向维持利率不变，几乎形成势均力敌的局面，这意味着无论12月 10日做出何种决定，都可能出现反对票。 中信证券研报称，判断11月20日美股下跌由宏观因素主导，而非AI泡沫破 ...

Core Viewpoint - ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, is increasing its investments in the cryptocurrency sector despite a significant market downturn, indicating a bullish stance amidst widespread pessimism [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Actions - ARK Invest purchased nearly $600,000 worth of Bitcoin ETFs, specifically through its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), showcasing a contrarian approach to the current market sentiment [9]. - The firm has been actively buying shares of crypto-related companies, including Bullish, BitMine, Circle, and Robinhood, with notable purchases totaling approximately $10.1 million in Coinbase, $9.9 million in BitMine, and $9 million in Circle on a single day [10][11]. - Over the week, ARK's total investments included about $2 million in Bullish, $830,000 in BitMine, and smaller amounts in Circle and Robinhood, reflecting a systematic accumulation strategy [5][7]. Group 2: Market Context - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing one of the largest outflows of funds since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with nearly $1 billion in net outflows recorded on a single day, marking the second-largest daily outflow in history [3]. - Bitcoin prices have dropped approximately 30% from recent highs, contributing to a cumulative net outflow of around $4 billion from these ETF products over the past month [3]. - ARK's actions contrast sharply with the broader market, which is facing significant investor confidence issues, as evidenced by the substantial outflows from Bitcoin ETFs [9].

二、"钥匙"是如何被找到的？技术漏洞成突破口 尽管陈志方面采取了诸如"喷洒-漏斗"等洗钱手段以规避追踪，将资金分散至数百个地址再行归集，但 其在私钥管理环节出现致命失误。 据安全专家分析，其使用的私钥生成工具存在"弱随机数漏洞"（如CVE-2023-39910），导致私钥熵值 大幅降低，理论上可在数小时内被暴力破解。这为外部力量控制相关钱包提供了技术可能。尽管资产后 续转移路径复杂，但初始漏洞成为整条资产控制链的起点。 近日，美国司法部对柬埔寨太子集团创始人陈志名下价值约150亿美元的12.7万枚比特币完成没收，成 为加密货币史上最大规模的资产收缴案件之一。该案不仅因涉案金额巨大引发关注，更因涉及链上追 踪、漏洞利用、跨境司法管辖等复杂议题，折射出加密货币在全球化时代面临的法律与治理困境。 一、案件脉络：从盗取到没收，一场横跨五年的资产追踪 2020年12月，LuBian矿池遭遇黑客攻击，12.7万枚比特币被盗。令人意外的是，这批资产并未被立即转 移或变现，而是在链上沉寂近四年。直至2024年6月至7月期间，比特币被分批转入新地址，并于2025年 10月被美国司法部宣布没收。 值得注意的是，区块链记录显示，早 ...

Market Overview - Recent significant volatility in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experiencing consecutive declines, reflecting fragile market sentiment [1][3] - Concerns over economic slowdown, investment bubble risks, and profit-taking by investors have contributed to the most notable intraday fluctuations in months, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 2% last week and a cumulative decline of 3.5% in November [3] Nvidia's Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia's earnings report, which was widely anticipated to boost market confidence, failed to sustain its positive impact, leading to a sharp decline in the S&P 500 index by over 2% within two hours after the report [5] - CEO Jensen Huang's comments regarding AI bubble discussions drew parallels to former Cisco CEO John Chambers' optimistic statements before the 2000 tech bubble burst, highlighting the potential for a similar market reaction [8] Impact on Popular Stocks and Cryptocurrencies - Popular stocks have suffered significant losses, with Robinhood's market value shrinking by 25% in the month, Coinbase Global's stock plummeting by 30%, and Palantir Technologies down approximately 23% [6] - The cryptocurrency market has also faced severe downturns, exacerbating overall market pressure due to the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks [6] AI Investment Concerns - Despite strong profit growth from AI companies like Nvidia, there are increasing worries about whether capital expenditures can effectively translate into profits, with over $1.5 trillion in AI-related investments announced globally in recent months [7] Private Market and Cryptocurrency Interactions - The private market is gaining attention from stock market investors, with concerns arising from a major bankruptcy in the private credit sector, where companies previously financed at low rates now face high refinancing pressures [9] - The downturn in the cryptocurrency market has further dampened market sentiment, with significant sell-offs from companies heavily invested in cryptocurrencies, leading to a 37% drop in related trading strategies this month [9] Leverage and Market Dynamics - Current market volatility is closely linked to leveraged trading and year-end profit-taking, with broker-dealer financing balances reaching a historic high of $1.1 trillion by the end of October [11] - High leverage can amplify gains during market upswings but increases risks during downturns, creating a vicious cycle of selling to meet margin requirements [11][12] Behavioral Finance Factors - Investors are increasingly engaging in profit-taking, despite the S&P 500's 12% year-to-date gain, driven by concerns over potential profit reversals [12] - Collective behavior among hedge fund traders to secure year-end bonuses often leads to simultaneous selling during market weakness, further exacerbating downward pressure [12]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：张晓波 ） Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan在X平台发文分析指出，当前市场回调的混乱局面中很多信息都被 忽略，比如以太坊即将到来的Fusaka升级(预计12月)将显著提升代币价值捕获能力，本次升级还会引入 Layer 2记录数据的最低费用，市场很快就会开始关注Fusaka带来的积极影响，可以说Fusaka是一个被低 估的催化剂，也是以太坊或将引领加密货币市场反弹的原因之一。 ...

吴说获悉，Solana 社区提出 SIMD-0411 提案：建议将通胀减速率从 -15% 直接翻倍至 -30%。这一简单 参数调整将使通胀率从当前 4.18% 加速降至 1.5% 的长期目标（从原计划的 2032 年初提前至 2029 年 初），仅需约 3.1 年而非 6.2 年，预计未来六年减少 2230 万 SOL 发行（约 29 亿美元），降低 staking 收益压力并提升 SOL 持有效率。该提案简单可预测，已进入治理讨论阶段。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

受经济放缓忧虑、投资泡沫风险及投资者获利了结共同影响，美股近期出现数月来最显著的日内波动。标普500指数上周下跌近2%，11月累计跌 幅达3.5%；以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数当月跌幅超6%，创下自4月以来最大三周跌幅。 市场尤为意外的是，被普遍看好的英伟达财报未能延续提振作用。其强劲业绩公布后股价冲高回落，标普500指数随后两小时内暴跌逾2%。有波 动率交易员指出，市场当时充满无法归因的恐慌情绪。 本轮波动中，此前热门股遭受重创：Robinhood市值月内缩水四分之一，Coinbase Global股价暴跌30%，Palantir Technologies下跌约23%。与此同 时，近期加密货币集体遭遇重挫，而加密货币与科技股之间的联动效应显著放大，加剧整体市场压力。 人工智能泡沫争议 尽管英伟达等AI企业仍保持强劲利润增长，但市场对其资本支出能否有效转化为盈利的担忧日益加剧。过去数月全球已宣布逾1.5万亿美元的AI相 关投资，然而相关股票的估值倍数尚未达到2000年互联网泡沫破裂前的水平。 近期，汽车零部件集团第一品牌的倒闭事件，引发市场对私募信贷领域大规模贷款的担忧。该公司曾从债权人处融资约110亿美元。伦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic shifts, high leverage in the market, and emotional trading, rather than a systemic collapse of the cryptocurrency market [32]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, but fell to around $90,000 within a month, resulting in a total market cap loss of approximately $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, about a quarter of its peak value [1]. - The most significant drop occurred on October 10, known as "10·10 Liquidation Day," where nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, leading to a $1 trillion decrease in market value [3][4]. - The leverage ratio in the crypto market remains high at 18%, which exacerbates the risk of cascading liquidations when prices breach critical support levels [7]. ETF Impact - The largest Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. (IBIT) experienced a record redemption of $1.6 billion from late October to mid-November, contributing to a total outflow of $3.7 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since October 10 [11]. - Continuous net redemptions from ETFs indicate a lack of confidence among institutional investors in the short-term market outlook [11]. Investor Behavior - Short-term investors holding 2.8 million Bitcoins are currently at a loss, similar to the situation during the FTX collapse in 2022, leading to panic selling and further price declines [21]. - In contrast, long-term holders have been cashing out profits, with a reduction of 450,000 Bitcoins from long-term addresses since July 2025, indicating a strategic reallocation rather than a bearish sentiment [23]. Historical Context - The current downturn is not unprecedented; Bitcoin has experienced similar significant pullbacks in the past, with two instances of larger declines since 2024 [26]. - Unlike the severe market disruptions seen in 2022 with the collapse of major platforms, the current situation is viewed as a correction rather than a collapse [26]. Regulatory Environment - The European Union is advancing new regulations that will enhance oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges, which may create short-term uncertainty but is expected to stabilize the market in the long run [28]. - The interplay between regulatory developments and Federal Reserve policies will be crucial in determining future market trends [30].

最新的动态发生在本周五，根据交易通知，ARK Invest进一步加大了对加密领域的敞口。该公司买入了加密货币交易所Bullish、比特币矿企 BitMine、稳定币发行商Circle以及在线券商Robinhood的股票。 ARK的逆市操作与当前市场的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比。美国比特币现货ETF市场正经历自推出以来最严重的资金外流潮之一。 在加密货币市场遭遇大幅回调、投资者信心动摇之际，由Cathie Wood"木头姐"掌舵的方舟投资（ARK Invest）正逆势而行。 仅在周五，12只ETF产品合计录得近10亿美元的净流出，创下历史第二大单日流出记录。过去一个月，随着比特币价格从近期高点回落约30%， 这些产品的累计净流出额已高达约40亿美元。 全面增持，重点押注Bullish 本周五，ARK的增持行动覆盖了多个目标。 其中最大的一笔收购针对Bullish，ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)、ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF)和ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) 三只基金合计买入了约200万美元的Bullish股票。当天 ...

吴说获悉，SharpLink CIO Matt Sheffield 在 X 发文称，美国资产管理公司持仓披露的 13F 报告通常在每 个季度末后 45 天内提交，数据天然存在滞后。以太坊联合创始人 Joseph Lubin 随后表示认同，称上市 公司增持加密资产的信息披露确有时滞；加密市场正随宏观环境调整而重定价。Lubin并称，机构投资 者一直在稳步增持 SharpLink 头寸，所有权数据显示机构信心在增强。 （来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 ...