Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reported that Galaxy Entertainment (00027) declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, a 40% increase year-on-year, exceeding the bank's expectation of HKD 0.6 per share [1] - The dividend yield stands at 3.5%, which is less attractive compared to a payout ratio of 59%, up from the previous 50% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was HKD 3.162 billion, a 1% decrease year-on-year but a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter, representing 79% of the EBITDA from the second quarter of 2019, falling short of both the bank's and market expectations [1] Group 2 - The reported EBITDA for Galaxy Entertainment was HKD 3.569 billion, reflecting an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 12% year-on-year increase, which is 82% of the EBITDA from the second quarter of 2019, benefiting from a 4.4% increase in VIP room win rate [1] - Excluding the City Club, the mass gaming revenue increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 130% of the second quarter of 2019, with market share increasing by 20 basis points to 19% [1] - Due to a business mix favoring VIP rooms and rising operating costs, the EBITDA margin was weak, with the reinvestment rate for mass gaming increasing by 150 basis points to 19.8% [1]

中金发布研报称，金界控股将于8月底公布1H25业绩。该行预计公司1H25EBITDA同比增长240%，环比 增长28%；预计公司1H25总博彩收入同比增长20%，环比增长31%。该行认为，公司EBITDA的强劲增 长，主要得益于访客人数与外国直接投资额持续增长带动的复苏好于预期。 金界控股(03918)尾盘涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5%，报4.41港元，成交额4294.51万港元。 该行续指，2025年4月，中国重申中柬紧密合作关系。2024年，柬埔寨吸引外国直接投资总额达到69亿 美元，同比增长40%，其中来自中国的贡献占比持续超过50%，继续居于首位。1H25中国赴柬旅客同比 增长51%，环比增长28%；其中中国商务旅客同比增长46%，环比增长31%。该行认为，中国对柬埔寨 投资额的增加有望带动公司业务量(尤其是贵宾业务)上升，主要得益于商务旅客来访或将更加频繁，以 及可能有更多的外派人员到达柬埔寨，需求有望提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its forecast for the Macau gaming industry for the third time in three months, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Target Prices - Galaxy Entertainment's target price has been raised from HKD 42 to HKD 53, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - MGM China’s target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 23, also with an "Overweight" rating [1] - Sands China’s target price has been adjusted from HKD 18 to HKD 24.5, retaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - SJM Holdings' target price rose from HKD 2.2 to HKD 3, with a "Neutral" rating [1] - Melco International's target price increased from HKD 2.6 to HKD 4.5, but the rating is "Underweight" [1] Group 2: Industry Growth Projections - The total gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to grow by 13% in the second half of 2025, with a 4% increase in the first half [1] - Strong cash flow is expected to drive accelerated EBITDA growth, with forecasts of a 12% increase in Q3 and a 16% increase in Q4, surpassing market expectations [1] - Continuous positive revisions and normalization of price-to-earnings multiples suggest a potential average stock price increase of approximately 35% for the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment reported a 8.27% year-on-year increase in revenue to HKD 23.246 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with a 19.44% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to HKD 5.24 billion [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 23.246 billion, up 8.27% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 5.24 billion, reflecting a 19.44% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were HKD 1.198 [1] - The company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.7 per share [1] Segment Performance - "Galaxy Macau™" was the largest source of revenue and profit for the group, generating net revenue of HKD 19.1 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was HKD 6.3 billion, up 18% year-on-year [1] - The high net win rate in the gaming business contributed approximately HKD 755 million to the adjusted EBITDA increase [1] - After normalizing the net win rate, the adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 would be HKD 5.6 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [1]

格隆汇8月12日｜银河娱乐公布，二零二五年上半年，集团录得净收益为232亿港元，按年上升8%；经 调整EBITDA为69亿港元，较去年增加14%。第二季度，集团净收益为 120亿港元，按年增加10%，按 季增加8%；经调整EBITDA为36亿港元，按年升12%，按季升8%。银娱的最新酒店项目——极致奢华 的澳门银河嘉佩乐已于五月提供独家预览，为集团在黄金周期间录得强劲表现作出贡献。于六月，银河 综艺馆带来了韩国流行歌星G-Dragon和香港著名歌手张学友的演出，促使澳门银河™创下单日客流量 超过12.3万人次的新高。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the overall increase in Hong Kong's gaming stocks, with specific companies like MGM China, Sands China, and Galaxy Entertainment showing notable gains [1] - Citigroup's research report indicates that the high-end gaming turnover in Macau rose by 5% year-on-year to 1.34 billion HKD in August, while the number of high-end players decreased by 5% to 624, suggesting a 10% increase in per capita betting amount to 21,543 HKD, marking four consecutive months of double-digit growth [1] - Galaxy Entertainment leads the market with approximately 34% share of high-end gaming turnover, followed by Sands China at about 23%, reflecting the appeal of the Capella Hotel and Eason Chan's concert to high rollers [1] Group 2 - The article notes that MGM China, Sands China, and Galaxy Entertainment have implemented various strategies and new betting options to attract customers [1] - The stock performance of several gaming companies is detailed, with MGM China up by 2.07%, Sands China by 1.96%, and Galaxy Entertainment by 1.16% [1] - The overall trend indicates a positive outlook for the gaming sector in Hong Kong, driven by increased spending from high-end gamblers despite a decline in their numbers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's parent company, Wynn Resorts, reported weak performance in its Macau segment for Q2 2025, leading to a 7.4% drop in stock price. The company plans to invest approximately $750 million in enhancing its non-gaming competitiveness and high-end offerings from 2025 to 2026 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's Q2 2025 net revenue was $880 million, flat year-on-year and up 2% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, down 10% year-on-year and flat quarter-on-quarter, impacted by low VIP win rates [1] - Total Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached $900 million, recovering to 66% of Q2 2019 levels, compared to the industry average of 83%. VIP gross revenue was $150 million, recovering to 21% of Q2 2019 levels, while mass market gross revenue was $690 million, recovering to 120% of Q2 2019 levels [1][2] - EBITDA margin (EM) for Wynn Palace was 29.1%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The overall EBITDA margin for Wynn Macau was 28.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Competitive Landscape - The non-gaming offerings of Wynn are considered weak compared to competitors, with outdated attractions and limited appeal to the mainstream Chinese consumer. Competitors like Galaxy and Sands are enhancing their entertainment offerings to attract high-end customers [2] - Wynn has announced plans to invest $750 million to develop a new club, renovate hotel rooms, and build a convention and entertainment center, with completion expected by 2028 [2] Market Outlook - The Macau gaming sector is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of 2025, supported by favorable policies and increased visitor numbers. The introduction of new entertainment events is anticipated to benefit the overall market [2] - The company has revised its GGR and adjusted EBITDA forecasts downward for 2025-2027, reflecting the challenges in both mass and VIP segments [3] Rating and Target Price - The rating for Wynn has been downgraded to "Hold," with a target price adjusted to HKD 6.7, reflecting a valuation based on an 8.0x EV/EBITDA for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.70 [1][11]. Core Views - The company is facing weak performance in the VIP segment and increased competition, leading to a need for significant investment to enhance its offerings and competitiveness [7][9]. - The management remains optimistic about future growth, planning to invest approximately USD 750 million in expanding and renovating facilities to improve high-end and non-gaming competitiveness [7][9]. - The company's current non-gaming offerings are considered weak compared to competitors, which may hinder its ability to attract customers effectively [9][11]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be HKD 28,491 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.87% from the previous year [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly to HKD 3,325 million in 2025, a growth of 3.96% [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is forecasted to be HKD 91 billion, down 6.9% from previous estimates [11][58]. Market Position and Competition - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovery is lagging behind the industry average, with a current recovery rate of 66% compared to the pre-pandemic levels [8][10]. - The VIP segment's gross revenue is only recovering to 21% of the levels seen in 2019, significantly lower than the industry average of 47% [8][10]. - Competitors are enhancing their non-gaming offerings and entertainment options, which may further challenge the company's market position [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face a challenging environment with intensified competition in the gaming sector, particularly in the VIP segment [11][58]. - The anticipated recovery in the Macau gaming sector is expected to continue into the second half of 2025, supported by favorable policies and increased tourist arrivals [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's 2Q25 performance fell short of market expectations, with net revenue of $883 million, flat year-on-year and up 2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 75% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted property EBITDA was $254 million, down 10% year-on-year and up 1% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 74% of 2Q19 levels, missing Bloomberg consensus of $274 million [1] - Total gaming revenue market share decreased from 12.3% in 1Q25 to 11.8% in 2Q25 [1] - Daily average operating costs increased to $2.66 million in 2Q25, up 4.5% year-on-year [1] Business Trends - Strong business performance in June 2025, stable activity in April, but offset by a lackluster May [1] - Despite no major concerts in July 2025, gaming volume accelerated due to increased visitor numbers [1] - Average daily EBITDA adjusted for theoretical win rate was $3.3 million in June and July 2025 [1] - The company is constructing an event center at the Wynn Palace North Entrance, expected to open in early 2028 [1] - Expansion of the Chairman Club and renovation of Wynn Tower guest rooms have commenced, with capital expenditures projected between $200 million and $250 million for 2025 [1] - Competitive rebate marketing levels remain stable despite new product launches from competitors [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged [2] - Current stock price corresponds to 9x 2025 EV/EBITDA, with a target price of HKD 6.90, indicating a 2% upside from the current price [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling over 200 points, closing below 25,000 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 1.56% [1] - Major technology stocks saw a broad decline, with Alibaba down 2.4% and JD.com down 1.44% [2] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with SMIC dropping over 8%, marking the worst performance in the sector [4] - Gaming stocks also fell sharply, with Wynn Macau down over 7% and MGM China down over 6% [6] - The paper industry saw declines, with Chenming Paper down over 8% [7] - Innovative drug stocks continued to decline, with Hutchison China MediTech down over 15% and Zai Lab down over 10% [8] Positive Performances - Gold stocks led gains in the metals sector, with Zhaojin Mining and Lingbao Gold both rising over 3% [3][10] - Heavy machinery stocks showed resilience, with Zhonglian Heavy Industry rising nearly 6% [3] - Cement stocks performed well, with Shanshui Cement up over 6% [9] - Wind power stocks also saw increases, with Goldwind Technology rising over 10% [11] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 6.271 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 3.28 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 2.992 billion HKD [12] Future Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market is due to adjustments in expectations, but the medium-term liquidity remains accommodative. They recommend focusing on sectors with improving conditions and low valuations, particularly in technology [13]