从资金流向上来看，当日饲料板块主力资金净流入2.1亿元，游资资金净流出9204.2万元，散户资金净流 出1.18亿元。饲料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 傲农生物 | | 1.25亿 | 21.95% | -4285.39万 | -7.55% | -8179.88万 | -14.41% | | 002891 中宠股份 | | 1.00亿 | 16.21% | -5697.18万 | -9.22% | -4324.54万 | -7.00% | | 002100 天康生物 | | 6868.94万 | 11.89% | 734.41万 | 1.27% | -7603.35万 | -13.16% | | 002385 | 大北农 | 677.98万 | 2.02% | -499.73万 | -1.49% | -178.25万 | -0.53% | | 301498 乖 ...

Group 1 - The company Tangrenshen (SZ 002567) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase approximately 9.96 million shares, which represents 0.7% of its total share capital, with a total transaction amount of about 50.1 million yuan [1][1][1] - The share buyback will occur through a centralized bidding method, with the highest transaction price set at 5.52 yuan per share and the lowest at 4.68 yuan per share [1][1][1] - As of the report date, Tangrenshen's market capitalization stands at 6.9 billion yuan [1][1][1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition is as follows: feed industry accounts for 60.25%, pig breeding industry for 34.1%, meat industry for 5.58%, and animal health industry for 0.06% [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector in the A-share market is showing resilience, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a notable increase, indicating a potential investment opportunity as valuations remain low [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) saw an intraday increase of 1.5%, currently up by 0.7%, and is expected to achieve a four-day consecutive rise [1]. - The ETF has recorded a real-time net subscription of over 46 million units [1]. - The sector's valuation is at a low point, with the price-to-book ratio of the underlying index at 2.61 times, placing it in the 34.9% percentile over the past decade, highlighting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [1]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy has been reinforced multiple times since May, positively impacting pig prices for the upcoming year [1]. - Recent policy implementations are showing initial positive effects, with expectations of accelerated capacity reduction in the pig industry as prices have entered a loss zone [1]. - It is anticipated that the pig prices may experience a new upward trend in the second half of next year due to increased policy enforcement and market adjustments [1]. Group 3: ETF Composition - The agricultural ETF (159275) passively tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with major holdings including leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2]. - The index has a high concentration in its top ten industries, which account for over 90% of its weight, focusing on opportunities across the entire agricultural and animal husbandry supply chain [2].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the pig farming industry, highlighting both offensive and defensive investment opportunities, with a potential downward trend in pig prices expected in 2025 due to breeding sow efficiency and market conditions [1] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, with food prices down 4.3%, and pork prices specifically down 16.1% year-on-year [1] - The agricultural trade deficit in August was $10.647 billion, a slight decrease of 2.54% year-on-year, with imports at $18.748 billion and exports at $8.102 billion [1] Group 2 - The agricultural index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index from early September to September 26, with a decline of 1.36% while the CSI 300 rose by 1.19% [2] - Within the agricultural sectors, feed saw a relative increase of 0.86%, while agricultural product processing and animal health sectors declined by 5.11% and 3.78%, respectively [2] Group 3 - As of August, the breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the pig price hitting a new low of 13.71 yuan/kg on September 17, down 16% from the end of 2024 [3] - The overall industry losses may lead to capacity reduction, with breeding profits for self-bred and purchased piglets at -74 yuan/head and -237 yuan/head, respectively [3] - The report anticipates a year-on-year decline in average pig prices for 2025, influenced by the optimization of costs by leading pig companies [3] Group 4 - In August, the export value of pet food was 834 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, while the export volume increased by 3.53% to 29,500 tons [4] - The cumulative export value from January to August was 6.764 billion yuan, down 2.35% year-on-year, with an export volume of 230,400 tons, reflecting a 6.23% increase [4]

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.67% on October 9, with Lude Environment leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) closed at 54.15, up 1.77% with a trading volume of 68,900 shares and a turnover of 369 million yuan [1] - Aonong Biological (603363) closed at 4.88, up 1.67% with a trading volume of 522,900 shares and a turnover of 251 million yuan [1] - Jinxinnong (002548) closed at 5.08, up 0.99% with a trading volume of 352,400 shares and a turnover of 175 million yuan [1] - Petty Co., Ltd. (300673) closed at 18.00, up 0.78% with a trading volume of 87,400 shares and a turnover of 157 million yuan [1] - Dabeinong (002385) closed at 4.11, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 738,600 shares and a turnover of 301 million yuan [1] - Lude Environment (688156) closed at 19.56, down 2.64% with a trading volume of 32,000 shares and a turnover of 63.07 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 54.98 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 40.28 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for selected stocks are as follows: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 33.07 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Aonong Biological experienced a net outflow of 14.05 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Petty Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 11.22 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tangrenshen (002567) had a net inflow of 6.93 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the hog industry, in the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to increasing supply, high hog weights, and limited demand. In the long term, the supply will continue to grow until the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. However, the price may strengthen in the second half of next year due to expected capacity reduction, but caution is needed due to continuous cost - cutting in the industry [3][6][51][52]. - For the egg industry, in the short term, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand weakens seasonally, and the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [59][60][88][89]. - For the corn industry, in the short term, the market is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply from new grain listings and limited terminal demand recovery. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with strong cost support at the bottom [97][99]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hog Section Market Review - As of October 8, the national hog price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 2.03 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan hog average price was 11.71 yuan/kg, down 1.94 yuan/kg. On September 30, the main 11 - contract price was 12355 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan/ton (8.85% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was - 645 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from the end of last month. In September, the hog price continued to decline due to increased supply and limited demand. During the National Day, the hog price hit a new low [6][11]. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows was in a balanced upper - limit range, with production performance improving. The supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is at a high level, and the supply pressure before the first half of next year is still large. The hog inventory increased, and the proportion of large hogs decreased. The planned出栏量 of enterprises in September increased, and the出栏 pressure in October is still large [6][16][21]. Demand - In September, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 134508 heads, up 14.28% from the previous month and 21.57% year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the terminal demand was weak. After the double festivals, the consumption may decline, but the demand will gradually increase with the cooling weather. However, due to factors such as weak macro - economic recovery and frozen - product inventory, the demand increase is limited [6][32][33]. Cost - The prices of piglets and breeding sows decreased, and the breeding profit was in the red. The long - term breeding cost decreased. As of September 30, the selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 334 yuan/head, down 111 yuan/head from the end of last month. The price of binary sows was 1589 yuan/head, down 11 yuan/head [6][41]. Policy - The government requires the top 25 enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January. The national pig - grain ratio fell below the warning level, and the state carried out pork procurement and rotation. The procurement is expected to be a total of 50,000 tons, which mainly boosts market sentiment [6][47]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, the price is under pressure until the first half of next year and may strengthen in the second half of next year [51][52]. Valuation - The basis of the hog futures contracts weakened, and the valuation was relatively high [53][54]. Egg Section Market Review - As of September 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan/jin from the end of August. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin. The main contract price was 3038 yuan/500 kg, up 68 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 78 yuan/500 kg, up 182 yuan/500 kg from the end of August. The monthly egg price first rose and then fell [60][64]. Supply - In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens was still relatively high. The supply was sufficient in the short term and the pressure was still large in the long term, but the supply growth rate slowed down [60]. Demand - After the "double festivals", the terminal demand weakened. However, with the cooling weather, the storage period of eggs lengthened, and the low egg price may stimulate inventory demand [60]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [88][89]. Valuation - The main egg futures contract was at the lowest level since 2020, and the basis was at an average level, with a neutral valuation [93]. Corn Section Market Review - As of September 30, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the end of August. The main 2511 - contract price was 2143 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton. The main basis was 157 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The monthly corn price was weak, and the futures price followed the spot price [99][103]. Supply - The old - crop inventory of traders was not high. With the large - scale listing of new grain, the market supply was sufficient, and the price was seasonally pressured. In August, the corn import was 40,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The North and South port inventories decreased [99][115][131]. Demand - The increase in livestock and poultry inventories drove the increase in feed demand, but the high corn - wheat price difference and the new - grain listing led to a decrease in corn feed demand. The deep - processing industry remained in the red, and the start - up rate was low [99]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the market is expected to be weak. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom [99]. Valuation - The futures price was at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years, and the basis was at a relatively high historical level [137].

Core Viewpoint - Jin Xin Nong's stock performance shows a slight increase, but financing activities indicate a net outflow, suggesting potential liquidity concerns [1][2]. Financing Summary - On September 30, Jin Xin Nong's stock rose by 0.80%, with a trading volume of 153 million yuan. The financing buy-in amount was 13.52 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 28.62 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 15.09 million yuan [1]. - As of September 30, the total financing and securities lending balance for Jin Xin Nong was 183 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 4.52% of the circulating market value, which is below the 40th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing position [1]. - The securities lending data shows no shares were sold or repaid on September 30, with a remaining securities lending balance of 1,006 yuan, which is above the 70th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high securities lending position [1]. Business Performance Summary - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Jin Xin Nong was 44,500, a decrease of 3.35% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 3.47% to 18,064 shares [2]. - For the first half of 2025, Jin Xin Nong reported operating revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 23.51 million yuan, although this represented a 43.74% improvement compared to the previous year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Jin Xin Nong has distributed a total of 368 million yuan in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [2]. Shareholding Structure Summary - As of June 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder of Jin Xin Nong was the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF, holding 8.0051 million shares, an increase of 307,900 shares from the previous period. Meanwhile, the CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy Mixed Fund has exited the top ten circulating shareholders [2].

Core Points - Tangrenshen's stock price decreased by 0.62% on September 30, with a trading volume of 89.15 million yuan [1] - The company reported a financing net buy of -8.62 million yuan on the same day, with a total financing and securities balance of 459 million yuan [1] - As of June 30, the company achieved a revenue of 12.468 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.05% [2] Financing and Securities - On September 30, Tangrenshen had a financing buy of 8.06 million yuan, with a current financing balance of 458 million yuan, accounting for 6.66% of the circulating market value [1] - The financing balance is above the 50% percentile level for the past year, indicating a relatively high position [1] - The company had a securities lending balance of 1.16 million yuan, which is below the 10% percentile level for the past year, indicating a low position [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, the number of shareholders decreased by 10.95% to 78,400, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 12.29% to 18,252 shares [2] - The top three circulating shareholders include Guotai Zhongxin Livestock Breeding ETF, which increased its holdings by 825,200 shares, and Southern Zhongxin 1000 ETF, which increased its holdings by 254,800 shares [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's feed industry, with a projected production of 29.27 million tons in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1] - Cumulative feed production from January to August 2025 is reported at 219.49 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 6.7% [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the feed industry include New Hope (000876), Haida Group (002311), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438), Dabeinong Technology Group (002385), and Yuehai Feed (001313) [1] - The data source for the feed production statistics is the National Bureau of Statistics, with analysis provided by Zhiyan Consulting [2]

Group 1 - The company, New Hope (000876), has diversified its business beyond pig farming to include a feed business, which has also shown good profitability this year [1]