长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-24 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：腌腊旺季考验，期价低位震荡 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 数据来源：Mysteel iFinD 卓创资讯 长江期货饲料养殖中心 u 期现端：截至11月21日，鸡蛋主产区均价报2.85元/斤，较上周五跌0.12元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报2.91元/斤，较上周五跌0.13元/斤；鸡蛋主力2601收 于3184元/500千克，较上周五跌51元/500千克；主力合约基差-604元/500千克，较上周五走弱79元/500千克。周度蛋价窄幅偏弱，市场缺乏节日提振， 终端需求较为平淡，下游渠道采购偏谨慎，消化库存为主，蛋价窄幅偏弱调整，不过蛋价跌至偏低水平会刺激下游补库需求，对蛋价形成支撑，预计 未来一周现货小幅反弹。盘面主力转为01合约，偏弱震荡挤压盘面升水，当前基差处于历史同期偏低水平。 u 供应端：11月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年7月补栏，环同比均下滑，但开产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The pig market has high supply pressure in the short - term, with prices having limited upward movement. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong due to expected capacity reduction [4][48]. - The egg market shows a marginal improvement in the short - term supply - demand situation, but the ample supply restricts price increases. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease as the inventory growth rate slows down [5][69]. - The corn market is in a phase of shock bottom - building during the new crop listing period. Short - term prices are expected to be weak, while in the long - term, there is strong cost support [6][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the national spot price was 11.82 yuan/kg, down 0.67 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg. The futures price of Live Pig 2501 closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the 01 contract was 175 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton from last week [4][11][48]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The average weekly slaughter weight was 128.3 kg, up 0.61 kg from last week. The proportion of small and large pigs in the weekly slaughter increased. The fat - standard price difference was 0.68 yuan, down 0.06 yuan from last week. The frozen product inventory rate was 20.03%, up 0.04% from last week [4][12][48]. - Demand - related data: The average daily weekly slaughter rate was 33.47%, down 1.36% from last week. The average daily weekly slaughter volume was 138,532 heads, down 5,604 heads from last week. The fresh - sales rate was 86.27%, up 0.23% from last week [4][12][48]. - Cost - related data: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 202.62 yuan/head, up 19.76 yuan/head from last week. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.91 yuan/head, down 10.21 yuan/head from last week. The profit from purchasing piglets was - 116.92 yuan/head, up 12.58 yuan/head from last week [4][12][48]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slowly. In September 2025, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, down 0.07% month - on - month and 0.66% year - on - year. My Agri's sample in October showed an increase, while Yongyi's sample showed a decrease [20][48]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%. The farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening and group enterprise slaughter. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong. Hold existing short positions in contracts 01, 03, and 05, and continue to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage. Be cautious about bottom - fishing in contracts 07 and 09 [4][48]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The futures price of Egg 2512 closed at 3,219 yuan/500 kg, up 73 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 419 yuan/500 kg, weakening by 3 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][54][69]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The national weekly utilization rate of egg - laying hen hatching eggs was 57%. The average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.80 yuan/chick. The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. - Demand - related data: The egg shipment volume was 6,300.06 tons, up 252.77 tons week - on - week. The sales volume in the sample sales areas was 7,300 tons, down 358 tons week - on - week [5][55][69]. - Profit - related data: The expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 24.44 yuan/hen, up 1.66 yuan/hen from last week. The profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly in October 2025, with 1.359 billion hens in production, down 0.09 billion month - on - month and up 0.72 billion year - on - year [5][69]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has a marginal improvement, and egg prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease. Short the main 12 - contract lightly when the price is high, and expect the 01 - contract to oscillate within the range of 3,250 - 3,450 [5][69]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of Corn 2601 closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, strengthening by 11 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][73][88]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The inventory of old - crop corn among traders in production and sales areas was low. The new - crop supply in the Northeast was increasing. In September, corn imports were 60,000 tons, up 50% month - on - month and down 80.6% year - on - year [6][75][88]. - Demand - related data: The feed demand increased due to the growth of pig and poultry inventories, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to wheat replacing corn in feed use. The deep - processing industry's profit turned positive, but the capacity utilization rate was still low [6][75][88]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The national grain - selling progress was 22% as of November 7, 3% faster than the same period last year. The progress in North China was 20%, 1% faster than the same period last year, and that in Northeast China was 18%, 3% faster than the same period last year [6][76][88]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, corn prices will be under pressure due to the concentrated listing of new crops. In the long - term, there is strong cost support. The main 01 - contract will oscillate within the range of 2,050 - 2,170 [6][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs remains, and the futures price is running weakly. In the short term, there is a risk of the pig price rising and then falling back, and in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to strengthen in the second half of next year but with caution [4][46]. - The demand for eggs has seasonally weakened, and the egg price is running weakly. In the short term, the egg price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - It is the new corn crop listing period, and the futures price rebound is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to run weakly, and in the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support [6][96]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary Live Pigs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the national spot price was 11.1 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11,670 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 390 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price first declined and then rebounded, and the futures price was under pressure [4][46]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of fertile sows increased slowly from May to November 2024 and decreased slightly after December. The overall sow capacity is abundant, and the production performance has improved. The supply of live pigs will be high until the first half of next year. In October, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased, and the secondary fattening and pressure - barring sentiment increased [4][46]. - **Demand End**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume rebounded from a low level. The cold weather increased demand, but the macro - economy and policies limited the increase in demand. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product storage rate increased [4][46]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening increased. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs decreased. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1, and the state plans to purchase 50,000 tons of pork [4][46]. - **Weekly Summary**: In October, the supply increased, and the short - term pig price lacked the power to continue rising. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will remain high until the first half of next year, and the price in the second half of next year is expected to strengthen but with caution [4][46]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, moderately reduce short positions; for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy; for the 07 and 09 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing [4][46]. Eggs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 2,805 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was - 275 yuan/500 kg, up 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The egg price first declined, then stabilized, and then rebounded slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell [5][76]. - **Supply End**: In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens remained high. The elimination of old hens increased, and the egg - laying rate recovered. In the medium - to - long term, the supply growth rate will slow down, but the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Demand End**: After the "Double Festival", the terminal demand weakened. The cold weather increased the storage period of eggs and stimulated the inventory demand [5][76]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the egg price will fluctuate at a low level. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, pay attention to the spot price; for the 12 and 01 contracts, try short - selling at high prices [5][76]. Corn - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,108 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 42 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The price of new corn in the Northeast decreased, and the futures price fluctuated widely at the bottom [6][96]. - **Supply End**: The old - crop inventory of traders is not high. After the festival, the supply of new corn in the Northeast increased, and the production situation is good, with expected high yields. The import of corn and other grains is at a low level [6][96]. - **Demand End**: The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat and the listing of new crops limit the demand for corn. The deep - processing profit has turned positive, and the start - up rate has rebounded but is still at a low level [6][96]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the price of corn is under seasonal pressure. In the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support, and the demand is moderately weak [6][96]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, adopt a short - selling strategy; pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure in the first half of next year, with potential improvement in the second half. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short - term and face long - term supply pressure. Corn prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and have cost support in the long - term [5][82][102] - For pigs, short - term supply exceeds demand, but policy support may limit the decline. For eggs, post - holiday demand is weak, and long - term supply adjustment takes time. For corn, new grain listing suppresses prices, and demand growth is limited [5][82][102] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary - **Pig**: The spot price has dropped unexpectedly, and the futures price is running weakly. Supply is increasing, demand is limited, and the price is under pressure. Policy support and other factors may limit the decline. Suggest a bearish view on contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, and focus on the long 05 short 03 arbitrage [5] - **Egg**: Demand has seasonally declined, and the egg price is running weakly. Short - term supply is sufficient, and long - term supply pressure remains. Suggest shorting contracts 12 and 01 after a rebound [82] - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. New grain supply is abundant, and demand growth is limited. Suggest a bearish view on the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [102] 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the national spot price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.04 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The futures price of 2511 was 11320 yuan/ton, down 1035 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract basis was - 130 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly average daily slaughter rate and volume decreased, and the frozen product storage rate increased. In terms of cost, the prices of piglets and sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and purchased piglet breeding increased [16] - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in August but remained at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. The production performance improved, and the supply in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year is expected to be high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in October increased [20] 3.2.2 Egg - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 0.48 yuan/jin from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2806 yuan/500 kg, down 232 yuan/500 kg. The basis was - 276 yuan/500 kg, weaker than before the holiday [63] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the laying rate recovered, and the inventory of laying hens in September was at a high level. In terms of demand, the post - holiday demand decreased, and the inventory in production and circulation links increased. In terms of profit, the breeding profit decreased [64] - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The number of newly - opened laying hens from November 2025 to January 2026 is expected to decrease. The supply growth rate will slow down, but long - term supply pressure remains [82] 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2180 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, weaker than before the holiday [88] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the old - crop inventory of traders was low, and new grain was gradually listed. In terms of demand, feed demand increased, but the substitution of wheat and the low - level operation of deep - processing limited the demand for corn. In terms of inventory, the inventory in the north port increased, and that in the south port decreased [90] - **Key Data Tracking**: The new - crop corn is expected to be abundant due to suitable weather during the growing period. The demand growth is limited, and the price is under pressure in the short - term and has cost support in the long - term [102]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the hog industry, in the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to increasing supply, high hog weights, and limited demand. In the long term, the supply will continue to grow until the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. However, the price may strengthen in the second half of next year due to expected capacity reduction, but caution is needed due to continuous cost - cutting in the industry [3][6][51][52]. - For the egg industry, in the short term, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand weakens seasonally, and the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [59][60][88][89]. - For the corn industry, in the short term, the market is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply from new grain listings and limited terminal demand recovery. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with strong cost support at the bottom [97][99]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hog Section Market Review - As of October 8, the national hog price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 2.03 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan hog average price was 11.71 yuan/kg, down 1.94 yuan/kg. On September 30, the main 11 - contract price was 12355 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan/ton (8.85% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was - 645 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from the end of last month. In September, the hog price continued to decline due to increased supply and limited demand. During the National Day, the hog price hit a new low [6][11]. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows was in a balanced upper - limit range, with production performance improving. The supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is at a high level, and the supply pressure before the first half of next year is still large. The hog inventory increased, and the proportion of large hogs decreased. The planned出栏量 of enterprises in September increased, and the出栏 pressure in October is still large [6][16][21]. Demand - In September, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 134508 heads, up 14.28% from the previous month and 21.57% year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the terminal demand was weak. After the double festivals, the consumption may decline, but the demand will gradually increase with the cooling weather. However, due to factors such as weak macro - economic recovery and frozen - product inventory, the demand increase is limited [6][32][33]. Cost - The prices of piglets and breeding sows decreased, and the breeding profit was in the red. The long - term breeding cost decreased. As of September 30, the selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 334 yuan/head, down 111 yuan/head from the end of last month. The price of binary sows was 1589 yuan/head, down 11 yuan/head [6][41]. Policy - The government requires the top 25 enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January. The national pig - grain ratio fell below the warning level, and the state carried out pork procurement and rotation. The procurement is expected to be a total of 50,000 tons, which mainly boosts market sentiment [6][47]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, the price is under pressure until the first half of next year and may strengthen in the second half of next year [51][52]. Valuation - The basis of the hog futures contracts weakened, and the valuation was relatively high [53][54]. Egg Section Market Review - As of September 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan/jin from the end of August. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin. The main contract price was 3038 yuan/500 kg, up 68 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 78 yuan/500 kg, up 182 yuan/500 kg from the end of August. The monthly egg price first rose and then fell [60][64]. Supply - In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens was still relatively high. The supply was sufficient in the short term and the pressure was still large in the long term, but the supply growth rate slowed down [60]. Demand - After the "double festivals", the terminal demand weakened. However, with the cooling weather, the storage period of eggs lengthened, and the low egg price may stimulate inventory demand [60]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [88][89]. Valuation - The main egg futures contract was at the lowest level since 2020, and the basis was at an average level, with a neutral valuation [93]. Corn Section Market Review - As of September 30, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the end of August. The main 2511 - contract price was 2143 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton. The main basis was 157 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The monthly corn price was weak, and the futures price followed the spot price [99][103]. Supply - The old - crop inventory of traders was not high. With the large - scale listing of new grain, the market supply was sufficient, and the price was seasonally pressured. In August, the corn import was 40,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The North and South port inventories decreased [99][115][131]. Demand - The increase in livestock and poultry inventories drove the increase in feed demand, but the high corn - wheat price difference and the new - grain listing led to a decrease in corn feed demand. The deep - processing industry remained in the red, and the start - up rate was low [99]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the market is expected to be weak. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom [99]. Valuation - The futures price was at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years, and the basis was at a relatively high historical level [137].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **For the hog industry**: Near - term hog price rebounds are limited due to increased supply and high weights. Medium - and long - term prices will face pressure as sow inventory is abundant and production performance is improving, leading to increased supply before May next year [6][47][48]. - **For the egg industry**: Short - term egg price rebounds are suppressed by sufficient supply. In the long run, supply pressure remains, but the growth rate may slow down, and attention should be paid to the near - term culling situation [56][84][85]. - **For the corn industry**: In the short term, the connection between old and new crops and policy grain supply make corn supply sufficient, and the price may be under pressure. In the long term, the 25/26 corn production is expected to increase slightly, and the overall supply - demand is relatively stable, with the valuation under pressure [93][131]. Summary by Directory 1. Hog Industry Market Review - In August, the average national hog slaughter price was 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The main 11 - contract price closed at 13,555 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton (2.38% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was 95 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the end of last month [6]. Supply - Sow inventory is still at the upper limit of the equilibrium range, and production performance has improved, leading to an increase in new - born piglets. The supply of hogs in the third and fourth quarters will increase. As of August 29, the average monthly slaughter weight of national hogs was 127.86 kg, down 0.72 kg from last month [6][17][27]. Demand - In August, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 116,895 heads, up 7.04% from last month and 25.09% year - on - year. The monthly fresh - sales rate dropped to 86.92%. In September, demand will gradually increase, but the increment is limited [31][32]. Cost - As of August 29, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was - 7.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan/head. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 12.83 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets for 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 13.02 yuan/kg [6]. Policy - As of the week of August 22, the national hog - grain ratio was 5.89:1, breaking the 6:1 third - level warning value. On August 25, the central government started to purchase 10,000 tons of frozen pork for storage, and the market expects a total of 50,000 tons [44]. Strategy - For the 11 and 01 contracts, short positions can be rolled for profit - taking. Wait for the rebound to add short positions at pressure levels. Pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting on 03 [6]. 2. Egg Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, and the main contract closed at 3,484 yuan/500 kg, down 359 yuan/500 kg from the end of July [56]. Supply - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, a year - on - year increase. In September, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain high, and the culling of laying hens is expected to increase [56][73]. Demand - Affected by the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg demand is expected to increase in early September but will decline significantly in mid - to late September. Egg substitution consumption has support [32][56]. Strategy - For the 10 and 11 contracts, take a short - biased approach to rebounds. For the 12 and 01 contracts, wait and see first. If the near - term culling does not accelerate significantly, wait for the rebound to conduct hedging [56]. 3. Corn Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,290 yuan/ton, and the main 2511 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the end of July [93]. Supply - In September, new corn in some areas of Northeast China will be listed, and together with policy grain, the supply will be sufficient. In July, corn imports were 60,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease [93]. Demand - Hog and poultry inventories are at a high level, driving feed demand. However, the substitution of wheat for corn has increased, and the demand for deep - processed corn is limited [93]. Strategy - For the 11 contract, wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [93].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in performance driven by both pork and chicken segments, achieving a notable turnaround from losses to profits [8][9]. - The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a substantial recovery from a loss of 6.39 billion yuan in the previous year [8][9]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in the coming years, with projected EPS of 1.40 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 1.92 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 104.86 billion yuan, a 16.64% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, recovering from a previous loss [8][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 24.32 billion yuan, up 11.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, also a recovery from a loss [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The pork segment sold 30.18 million heads, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan/kg, up 12.83% year-on-year [8][9]. - The chicken segment sold 1.208 billion heads, a 2.09% increase, with an average selling price of 13.06 yuan/kg, down 4.60% year-on-year [8][9]. Cost Management - The comprehensive cost of pork farming was approximately 7.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 1.2 yuan/kg year-on-year, maintaining a competitive edge in cost control [8][9]. - The chicken farming cost dropped significantly, with the total cost per chicken reaching 6 yuan/kg, down 0.8 yuan/kg year-on-year [8][9]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 109.30 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.23%, and further to 120.37 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 10.13% increase [3][9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in both pork and chicken segments, with expected increases in production and sales prices [9].