长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供应压力仍存，期价偏弱运行 u 期现端：截至10月17日，全国现货价格11.1元/公斤，较上周跌0.04元/公斤；河南猪价11.28元/公斤，较上周涨0.09元/公斤；生猪2501收至11670元/吨，较上周跌470元/吨；01合 约基差-390元/吨，较上周涨560元/吨。周度生猪现货先抑后扬，北涨南跌，全国猪价窄幅调整，因周初养殖端出栏积极，而节后需求疲软，猪价偏弱下行，周中期需求低位回升， 低价屠企分割入库和二次育肥增加，价格止跌反弹；期货主力由11转为01，01因二次育肥介入供应压力后移承压显著，主力01升水，基差走强；周末生猪现货弱稳。 u 供应端：能繁母猪存栏2024年5-11月缓增，虽然2024年12月开始产能有所去化，但去化幅度有限，官方2025年8月能繁母猪存栏量处于均衡区间上限，整体母猪产能充裕，叠 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-13 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：现货超预期下跌，期价偏弱运行 u 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 u 期现端：截至10月10日，全国现货价格11.14元/公斤，较十一节前跌1.04元/公斤；河南猪价11.19元/公斤，较节前下跌1.38元/公斤；生猪2511收至11320元/吨，较节前下跌1035 元/吨；11合约基差-130元/吨，较节前跌345元/吨。周度生猪价格下跌，因双节期间养殖端出栏增量，而需求节后逐步转淡，供大于求令猪价进一步走弱；盘面跟随现货偏弱运行， 主力11小幅升水，基差走弱。周末现货继续偏弱调整。 u 供应端：能繁母猪存栏2024年5-11月缓增，虽然2024年12月开始产能有所去化，但去化幅度有限，2025年8月能繁母猪存栏量处于均衡区间上限，整体母猪产能充裕，叠加生产 性能提升，在疫 ...

长江期货养殖产业月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-9 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：供应增长压制，期价偏弱运行 目 02 鸡蛋：需求季节性转淡，蛋价偏弱运行 录 03 玉米：新作上市补充供应，盘面反弹承压 01 生猪：供应增长压制，期价偏弱运行 01 生猪：供应增长压制，期价偏弱运行 u 期现货：截至10月8日，全国生猪价格11.52元/公斤，较上月底下跌2.03元/公斤；河南生猪均价11.71元/公斤，较上月底下跌1.94元/公斤；9月30日，主力11合约价格收于12355元/吨，较上 月底下跌1200元/吨，跌幅8.85%；11合约基差-645元/吨，较上月底跌740元/吨。9月猪价重心继续下移，因供应持续增加，且9月16日农业农村部会议内容要求前25大企业1月底之前去化 100万头能繁，集团、散户出栏意愿较强，而需求跟进有限，供大于求令猪价下跌；盘面随着现货走弱估值下移。十一节日期间，养殖端出栏增量，猪价进一步下滑，猪价创新低，主力11 较现货升水明显 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **For the hog industry**: Near - term hog price rebounds are limited due to increased supply and high weights. Medium - and long - term prices will face pressure as sow inventory is abundant and production performance is improving, leading to increased supply before May next year [6][47][48]. - **For the egg industry**: Short - term egg price rebounds are suppressed by sufficient supply. In the long run, supply pressure remains, but the growth rate may slow down, and attention should be paid to the near - term culling situation [56][84][85]. - **For the corn industry**: In the short term, the connection between old and new crops and policy grain supply make corn supply sufficient, and the price may be under pressure. In the long term, the 25/26 corn production is expected to increase slightly, and the overall supply - demand is relatively stable, with the valuation under pressure [93][131]. Summary by Directory 1. Hog Industry Market Review - In August, the average national hog slaughter price was 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The main 11 - contract price closed at 13,555 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton (2.38% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was 95 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the end of last month [6]. Supply - Sow inventory is still at the upper limit of the equilibrium range, and production performance has improved, leading to an increase in new - born piglets. The supply of hogs in the third and fourth quarters will increase. As of August 29, the average monthly slaughter weight of national hogs was 127.86 kg, down 0.72 kg from last month [6][17][27]. Demand - In August, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 116,895 heads, up 7.04% from last month and 25.09% year - on - year. The monthly fresh - sales rate dropped to 86.92%. In September, demand will gradually increase, but the increment is limited [31][32]. Cost - As of August 29, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was - 7.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan/head. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 12.83 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets for 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 13.02 yuan/kg [6]. Policy - As of the week of August 22, the national hog - grain ratio was 5.89:1, breaking the 6:1 third - level warning value. On August 25, the central government started to purchase 10,000 tons of frozen pork for storage, and the market expects a total of 50,000 tons [44]. Strategy - For the 11 and 01 contracts, short positions can be rolled for profit - taking. Wait for the rebound to add short positions at pressure levels. Pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting on 03 [6]. 2. Egg Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, and the main contract closed at 3,484 yuan/500 kg, down 359 yuan/500 kg from the end of July [56]. Supply - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, a year - on - year increase. In September, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain high, and the culling of laying hens is expected to increase [56][73]. Demand - Affected by the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg demand is expected to increase in early September but will decline significantly in mid - to late September. Egg substitution consumption has support [32][56]. Strategy - For the 10 and 11 contracts, take a short - biased approach to rebounds. For the 12 and 01 contracts, wait and see first. If the near - term culling does not accelerate significantly, wait for the rebound to conduct hedging [56]. 3. Corn Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,290 yuan/ton, and the main 2511 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the end of July [93]. Supply - In September, new corn in some areas of Northeast China will be listed, and together with policy grain, the supply will be sufficient. In July, corn imports were 60,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease [93]. Demand - Hog and poultry inventories are at a high level, driving feed demand. However, the substitution of wheat for corn has increased, and the demand for deep - processed corn is limited [93]. Strategy - For the 11 contract, wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [93].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in performance driven by both pork and chicken segments, achieving a notable turnaround from losses to profits [8][9]. - The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a substantial recovery from a loss of 6.39 billion yuan in the previous year [8][9]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in the coming years, with projected EPS of 1.40 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 1.92 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 104.86 billion yuan, a 16.64% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, recovering from a previous loss [8][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 24.32 billion yuan, up 11.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, also a recovery from a loss [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The pork segment sold 30.18 million heads, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan/kg, up 12.83% year-on-year [8][9]. - The chicken segment sold 1.208 billion heads, a 2.09% increase, with an average selling price of 13.06 yuan/kg, down 4.60% year-on-year [8][9]. Cost Management - The comprehensive cost of pork farming was approximately 7.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 1.2 yuan/kg year-on-year, maintaining a competitive edge in cost control [8][9]. - The chicken farming cost dropped significantly, with the total cost per chicken reaching 6 yuan/kg, down 0.8 yuan/kg year-on-year [8][9]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 109.30 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.23%, and further to 120.37 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 10.13% increase [3][9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in both pork and chicken segments, with expected increases in production and sales prices [9].