可控核聚变：国际堆建设及国内招标大年 20250508 摘要 • 全球可控核聚变产业加速发展，预计多数公司将在 2025-2035 年实现商 用发电，打破了传统"50 年建成"的预期。美国 CFS 公司和中国 BEST 项目是产业化最靠前的标杆项目，均展现出超预期的建设进度。 • 中国可控核聚变产业由中核集团和中科院牵头，分别成立了可控核聚变联 合体（33 家成员）和聚变产业联盟（200 家成员），两大产业联盟初步形 成并逐步壮大，推动产业发展。 • BEST 准示范堆项目进展超预期，2023 年 12 月开工，2025 年 5 月启动 总装，较原计划提前两个月，预计 2025 年集中释放招标金额，对相关企 业形成利好。 • 国内民营企业积极参与可控核聚变竞争，能量基点、新奥集团、新环巨能、 瀚海巨能和聚变新能等企业在技术上取得突破，部分企业计划在 2027 年 底至 2028 年初推进商业示范堆建设。 • 可控核聚变领域融资活动自 2022 年以来逐步增加，能量基点融资额显著 攀升，中国聚变能源获得浙能电力和上海未来产业基金入股，表明资本市 场对该领域的关注和支持。 Q&A 可控核聚变领域在国内和国际上的最 ...

Summary of Fusion Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The fusion industry is experiencing significant strategic development opportunities, with total approved investments reaching 111 billion RMB, indicating high policy emphasis and future growth expectations [1][10] - The industry is transitioning from research to practical applications, marking 2025 as the year of large-scale investments in fusion technology [2] Key Developments - The BEST device's assembly was completed two months ahead of schedule, marking a critical phase in the project, with total investment increasing from 4.5 billion RMB to 15 billion RMB [1][8] - Major domestic projects are progressing, such as the Chengdu Circulation No. 3 project achieving significant temperature parameters and the Jiangxi Star One hybrid reactor expected to exceed 20 billion RMB in total investment [3][14] Investment Trends - Capital expenditure in the fusion sector is expected to significantly increase, with average annual investments projected at approximately 18.5 billion RMB from 2025 to 2030, surpassing previous global cumulative investments [3][11] - The recent surge in fusion-related activities is attributed to multiple project launches and increased bidding activities, with significant investments in projects like the Hefei Sentoria engineering demonstration pile [9] Notable Projects and Companies - Key projects include the BEST device, which aims for operational readiness by 2027, and the Chengdu hybrid reactor project, which is set to see formal bidding information in 2025 [8][14] - Notable companies in the fusion supply chain include Guoguang Electric, Hezhong Intelligent, and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, which are involved in device operation planning and integrated equipment [6][12] Technological Advancements - The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics has made breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting magnet technology, achieving magnetic field strengths above 20 Tesla [17] - The Shanghai region is developing a cluster of superconducting material industries, with significant investments from local enterprises and government support [18] Government and Private Sector Involvement - Government support for fusion projects is substantial, with state-owned capital playing a significant role in funding initiatives like the Anhui Juyuan New Energy project [20] - Private enterprises, such as the New Energy Group and Shanghai Energy Point, are also making notable advancements in fusion technology, contributing to the overall growth of the sector [15][16] Conclusion - The fusion industry is on the cusp of a transformative phase, with substantial investments, technological advancements, and strong government support paving the way for future developments and potential commercialization of fusion energy solutions [2][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant advancements in controlled nuclear fusion technology, particularly the completion of the world's largest superconducting magnet system by the ITER organization, marking a crucial step towards achieving controlled nuclear fusion energy [1][3] - The controlled nuclear fusion sector has seen a notable increase in stock prices, with companies like Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry and Fujian Snowman Group experiencing significant gains, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence in this emerging industry [1] - The BEST project in Hefei has commenced ahead of schedule, aiming to demonstrate fusion energy generation and contribute to the development of fusion energy in China, building on the foundation laid by the EAST project [2][3] Group 2 - Nuclear fusion energy is recognized as an ideal future energy source due to its high energy density, wide availability of raw materials, and high safety standards, with global fusion investment projected to reach $7.1 billion in 2024 [3] - Companies are actively positioning themselves within the nuclear fusion supply chain, with Jiangxi Lianchuang Optical Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developing the world's first 100-meter high-temperature superconducting cable, showcasing advancements in superconducting magnet technology [3][4] - The "Spark One" nuclear fusion project in China, with an estimated investment exceeding 20 billion yuan, aims to integrate the advantages of fusion and fission technologies, promising enhanced safety, reduced scale, and lower costs, while also addressing key issues in clean energy supply [4]

由杰夫·贝佐斯支持的加拿大初创公司General Fusion Inc.在筹集了超过3亿美元用于开发一套利用恒星能 量的系统后，正在向投资者发出呼吁。"我们已准备好执行我们的计划，但受制于经济和地缘政治环 境，我们不得不等待，"首席执行官Greg Twinney在一封公开信中写道。"我们现在需要的是完成这项工 作所需的资金。" ...

Core Points - The ITER project, involving over 30 countries, has achieved a significant milestone by completing the construction of the world's largest and strongest pulsed superconducting magnet system, marking a crucial step towards controllable nuclear fusion energy [1][2] - ITER aims to simulate the nuclear fusion process of the sun, exploring the commercial viability of fusion technology, with a focus on using hydrogen isotopes to produce helium and release vast amounts of energy [1][2] Group 1: Technical Achievements - The newly completed pulsed magnet system is referred to as the "electromagnetic heart" of the tokamak device, essential for magnetic confinement fusion [2][3] - The central solenoid of the magnet system is 18 meters tall and 4.25 meters in diameter, with a magnetic field strength of 13 teslas, capable of lifting an aircraft carrier [2] - The entire pulsed magnet system will weigh nearly 3,000 tons, showcasing the scale and complexity of the project [2] Group 2: Global Collaboration - ITER is recognized as a model of international cooperation, having maintained its collaborative framework despite geopolitical changes, involving contributions from the EU, China, the US, Japan, South Korea, India, and Russia [3][4] - The project has seen thousands of scientists and engineers from hundreds of factories across three continents working together, with over 100,000 kilometers of superconducting wire produced by nine factories in six countries [3][4] Group 3: Commercial Prospects - The past five years have seen a surge in private investment in fusion energy research, with ITER encouraging collaboration between member states and the private sector to accelerate the realization of fusion energy [4][5] - Predictions for the commercialization of fusion energy vary widely among private sector representatives, ranging from 2028 to 2040 or even longer, due to differing technological pathways and foundational engineering challenges [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The completion of all components for the world's largest and strongest pulsed superconducting magnet system marks a significant milestone in the field of fusion energy, as announced by the ITER organization [1] Group 1: Component Manufacturing - The last component manufactured is the sixth module of the central solenoid, which was produced and tested in the United States [1] - This module will be transported to the ITER site in Saint-Paul-lez-Durance, France, for assembly [1] Group 2: System Specifications - The central solenoid will be the most powerful magnet in the entire system, capable of lifting an aircraft carrier due to its strong magnetic force [1] - The central solenoid will work in conjunction with six toroidal field (TF) magnets, which are manufactured and delivered by Russia, Europe, and China [1] - The total weight of the fully assembled pulsed magnet system will be nearly 3,000 tons [1] Group 3: Role in Fusion Reactor - The pulsed magnet system will serve as the "electromagnetic heart" of the ITER tokamak reactor, playing a crucial role in its operation [1]

Core Insights - The ITER project has achieved a significant milestone by completing the manufacturing of all components of the world's largest and most powerful pulsed superconducting magnet system [1][2] - The final component, the sixth module of the central solenoid, was manufactured and tested in the United States and will be assembled in France, where it will serve as the strongest magnet in the system [1] - The entire pulsed magnet system weighs approximately 3000 tons and is considered the electromagnetic "heart" of the ITER tokamak reactor [1] Summary by Sections - **Pulsed Superconducting Magnet System**: The completion of the pulsed superconducting magnet system marks a critical achievement in fusion energy, with the central solenoid capable of lifting an aircraft carrier [1] - **Operational Efficiency**: Once fully operational, ITER will require only 50 megawatts of input heating power to generate 500 megawatts of fusion power, demonstrating a highly efficient energy production process [2] - **International Collaboration**: The ITER project involves over 30 countries, showcasing a unique international cooperation framework that allows for progress in addressing climate change and energy security challenges [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's "artificial sun" is expected to light its first lamp by 2035, marking a historic turning point in fusion energy development [1][2] - The private company New Hope Group has achieved a significant breakthrough with its "Xuanlong-50U" hydrogen-boron fusion device, realizing a million-ampere discharge for the first time globally [1][2] - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is anticipated to lead to an exponential increase in energy capacity, akin to a leap from the "carriage era" to the "high-speed rail era" [1] Group 2 - China is rapidly advancing from laboratory research to power generation, with a six-step process for the commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion [2] - The China Nuclear Industry Group aims to enter the demonstration phase around 2045, while the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) is planned to complete its demonstration pile by 2035 [2] - The New Hope Group's hydrogen-boron route is being accelerated using AI algorithms, emphasizing safety, fuel freedom, and a short construction period as its key advantages [2]

Core Insights - The "Xuanlong-50U" spherical tokamak fusion device developed by Xin'ao has achieved a significant breakthrough by realizing high-temperature, high-density million-ampere plasma current, marking an important step towards the commercialization of hydrogen-boron fusion [1] - This experiment represents the first instance of achieving high-performance parameters for million-ampere hydrogen-boron plasma discharge internationally, positioning China among the top three countries with megampere spherical tokamak devices [1] Group 1 - The "Xuanlong-50U" device is China's first medium-scale spherical tokamak experimental facility, designed and built independently in 2019, and upgraded from the previous "Xuanlong" device [1] - The device was completed by the end of 2023 and exceeded its expected plasma current targets in August 2024, with plans to focus on high-parameter hydrogen-boron plasma discharge research starting in 2025 [1] - The experiment utilized high-concentration hydrogen-boron fuel, achieving plasma electron temperatures of 40 million degrees Celsius and a density of 1×10^20 m^-3, while also addressing technical challenges in efficiently generating spherical tokamak plasma currents [1] Group 2 - The Xin'ao fusion research team aims to achieve even higher hydrogen-boron plasma parameters, targeting ion temperatures of 100 million degrees Celsius by 2026, and generating a certain number of 200 keV high-energy protons for hydrogen-boron fusion reaction experiments [2] - The "Helong-2" device has been designed with a goal of reaching ion temperatures of 500 million degrees Celsius to comprehensively validate the feasibility of hydrogen-boron fusion [2] - The spherical tokamak hydrogen-boron fusion technology route has been incorporated into the national fusion energy strategy, with magnetic confinement spherical tokamak hydrogen-boron fusion being one of the three key research routes proposed by the Ministry of Science and Technology [2]

Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly empowering fusion research, aiming to reshape the ecosystem of nuclear fusion studies through deep collaboration among academia, industry, and policy [1][4] - Nuclear fusion, often referred to as the "artificial sun," simulates the energy release mechanism of the sun, requiring extreme conditions to fuse light atomic nuclei into heavier ones, thus providing a virtually limitless energy source [1][2] Group 1: Current Developments in Fusion Research - The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project involves resources from 35 countries globally, while China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) collaborates with ITER, creating an innovative network covering approximately 70 countries and over 150 research institutions [2] - China's "Circulation Three" project is set to open for international collaboration by the end of 2023, with the first round of joint experiments in 2024 attracting participation from 17 global institutions, research institutes, and universities [2] Group 2: AI's Role in Fusion Research - AI has demonstrated significant advantages in handling complex data related to nuclear fusion, enabling precise predictions and intelligent control, transforming plasma data analysis from "hours of modeling" to "milliseconds for solutions" [3] - The introduction of AI allows for 300 milliseconds of advance prediction, effectively preventing interruptions in fusion reactions due to plasma instability, a feat traditional commercial software cannot achieve [3] - AI models can integrate specialized knowledge, expert experience, and experimental records, potentially leading to the establishment of a cross-device database, fundamentally revolutionizing fusion research paradigms [3] Group 3: Future Implications - The deepening integration of AI and fusion research is expected to pave the way for an open-source ecosystem, breaking down data barriers and enhancing resource integration to lower research and development risks [3] - This collaboration will also reduce the marginal costs of knowledge integration, promoting cross-disciplinary cooperation and accelerating the fusion research process [3][4] - The combination of AI and nuclear fusion represents a pinnacle challenge in science and engineering, serving as a test of human collaborative intelligence [3][4]