聚变技术突破临界点，产业化进程驶入 快车道 2026 年 02 月 27 日 【投资要点】 行 业 研 究 / 机 械 设 备 / 证 券 研 究 报 机械设备行业深度研究 示范堆与商业堆建设相关招标密集落地，拉动上游磁体、真空等环节 设备需求。据 IAEA 统计，2025-2030 年全球预计有约 10 个工程堆与 商业堆项目陆续开建，我们预测将带来约 350 亿美元设备市场；到 2050 年随着商业堆比例提升，产业链市场空间有望扩张至万亿美元级 别。以中国"夸父启明"（BEST）装置为代表，线圈、偏滤器等关键 子系统招标密集落地，显现出对磁体、真空等环节的强劲拉动；BEST 于 2023 年启动土建，目前处于核心设备建设高峰；2024-2025 年间 其线圈系统、偏滤器靶板、屏蔽包层等关键子系统招标密集展开，仅 2025M10-M11 便落地七项千万级中标项目。即将启动的 CFETR 等示 范堆工程体量及系统复杂度显著高于当前在建装置，后续有望推动磁 体、包层、低温、电源及加热等子系统率先放量，成为未来 5-10 年行 业景气度的核心支撑，相关设备公司有望持续受益。 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） ...

【中信证券新材料/机械/电新】核电行业重点推荐——高端制造估值重估，短期业绩高增远期空间广阔 ‼核心观点：①核电为低位、低估值、高科技属性大容量板块，同时国内外利好催化密集；②大部分标的长期估值 受限，但短期板块将业绩高增，同时四代堆/小堆/核应用/出口/乏燃料将贡献增量；③聚变资本开支基准有望迎事 件切换，大幅拔高远期估值。 ‼高利润率高成长，估值长期受限。 25年我国核 【中信证券新材料/机械/电新】核电行业重点推荐——高端制造估值重估，短期业绩高增远期空间广阔 ‼核心观点：①核电为低位、低估值、高科技属性大容量板块，同时国内外利好催化密集；②大部分标的长期估值 受限，但短期板块将业绩高增，同时四代堆/小堆/核应用/出口/乏燃料将贡献增量；③聚变资本开支基准有望迎事 件切换，大幅拔高远期估值。 ‼高利润率高成长，估值长期受限。 25年我国核电发电占比约4.82%，世界平均水平10%，发达国家普遍在20%以上，AI需求引发行业复兴，空间广 阔。 行业壁垒导致核岛核心设备毛利率在30%以上。 在历史业绩稳健增长、毛利率较高的背景下，零部件企业估值提升长期受限，我们认为核心原因是市场对核电"远 期成长"信心不足 ...

随着核聚变行业逐步逼近商业化现实，相关初创公司正加速从实验室走向资本市场，头部企业通过 SPAC上市的步伐正在加快。 据《金融时报》引用PitchBook的数据显示，风险投资公司去年参与了43轮核聚变领域的融资，创下历 史记录；总投资额达到23亿美元，为2021年以来的最高水平。投资者正大举涌入这一领域，寄希望于这 项承诺提供廉价、丰富且无碳能源的技术终将具备经济可行性。 尽管大部分资金仍来自私募市场，但头部企业已开始寻求公开上市以支持耗资数十亿美元的项目。 General Fusion上月宣布将通过与SPAC合并上市，估值约10亿美元，预计2026年中期完成交易后将成为 首家上市的纯核聚变公司。此外，TAE Technologies也表示计划通过与特朗普媒体与科技集团（Trump Media & Technology Group）进行全股票合并寻求上市，估值达60亿美元。 资本涌入与上市热潮 核聚变技术旨在复制太阳产生能量的反应，通过极端高温或高压迫使原子核结合以产生能量。与产生核 废料的裂变不同，聚变被视为清洁能源的"圣杯"。尽管目前尚无私营核聚变公司实现商业上可行的聚 变，即证明其技术产生的电力多于消耗 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that AI is reshaping manufacturing demand, with mature manufacturing moving towards global markets, and the mechanical industry is expected to benefit significantly from technology and export growth in 2026 [1][9][10] - The mechanical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 by 23.25 percentage points in 2025, with a 40.91% increase in the mechanical industry index compared to a 17.66% increase in the CSI 300 [9][10] - AI technology is expected to have a profound impact on the manufacturing industry, with AI infrastructure reshaping demand patterns and applications driving hardware manufacturing equipment demand [9][11] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant increase in demand for equipment driven by AI infrastructure, including semiconductor equipment, liquid cooling equipment, and gas turbines [13] - The demand for AI hardware manufacturing equipment and components, such as humanoid robots and 3C automation equipment, is expected to rise [13] - Export-oriented equipment, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, is anticipated to show strong growth in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow, with global sales expected to reach $125.5 billion in 2025, a 7.4% increase, and further growth to $138.1 billion in 2026 [34][40] - The report highlights that the domestic semiconductor equipment market in China is expected to reach approximately 230 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [41] - The PCB industry is entering a new development cycle driven by AI demand, with a projected global PCB market value of approximately $73.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase [54][56] Group 4 - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential due to the increasing power consumption of AI servers, with the global liquid cooling component market expected to reach $5-10 billion in 2025 and $25 billion by 2030 [84][86] - The report indicates that the demand for liquid cooling solutions will significantly increase as AI processing power continues to rise, making traditional cooling methods inadequate [70][84] - The introduction of advanced liquid cooling systems, such as NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300, is expected to drive market growth and innovation in cooling technologies [84][86]

Core Viewpoint - China's nuclear fusion development is accelerating, transitioning from basic scientific research to engineering applications, supported by AI technology, positioning the country as a global leader in the nuclear fusion industry [3][4]. Group 1: Development Progress - As of now, there are 58 fusion companies globally, with China accounting for 14, nearly 25% of the total, making it a significant player in the fusion industry [6]. - The EAST facility achieved a world record by maintaining a plasma temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for 1066 seconds, marking a critical milestone for stable fusion reactions [6][7]. - The BEST and CRAFT facilities have also made significant advancements, with the BEST's major component installation and CRAFT's key system achieving a 2 MW steady-state power output [7]. Group 2: Strategic Framework - The "three-step" strategy for fusion commercialization includes: completing fusion power demonstration by 2027, constructing a Chinese fusion engineering demonstration reactor by 2030, and developing commercial reactors by 2040 [7]. - The commercialization process involves six stages: principle exploration, scale experiments, burning experiments, construction of experimental reactors, demonstration reactors, and commercial reactors [7]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Talent Development - The ecosystem supporting nuclear fusion commercialization is built on a cluster of large scientific devices, including EAST, BEST, and CRAFT, which provide a comprehensive system from basic research to engineering validation [9][11]. - Over 200 member units have joined the Anhui Fusion Industry Association, covering twelve key areas of the fusion supply chain, indicating a growing industrial ecosystem [11]. - A talent cultivation model combining academic training and funding support has been established, with plans to set up 10-20 fusion colleges across the country in the next five years [12][13]. Group 4: Capital Support - A capital system has been created to support the "three-step" strategy, including a 1 billion yuan venture capital fund focused on key technological breakthroughs and industrial cultivation [15]. - The establishment of the "Fusion Financial Institutions Alliance" aims to provide comprehensive financial services to fusion industry enterprises [16]. - Current capital expenditures for commercial fusion projects like BEST are nearing 200 billion yuan, with expectations for market expansion as the industry progresses towards commercial reactors [16].

Core Viewpoint - Hefei is accelerating the commercialization of nuclear fusion through a collaborative model of "policy + technology + capital + industry," positioning itself as a global leader in the nuclear fusion industry [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Achievements - Over the past year, the question of how far China is from achieving a "man-made sun" has frequently appeared in trending searches, indicating a growing public interest in nuclear fusion [1]. - Hefei has transitioned from basic scientific research to engineering applications, supported by AI technology, which is expected to expedite the process beyond initial expectations [1]. - The city has established a comprehensive industrial chain, evolving from controlled nuclear fusion research initiated in the 1970s to a cluster of world-class fusion devices, including EAST, BEST, and CRAFT [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Framework - The "three-step" strategy for fusion commercialization includes the development of experimental, engineering, and commercial reactors, with specific milestones set for 2022-2035 [6]. - The first phase (2022-2027) focuses on completing fusion power demonstration verification using BEST, while the second phase aims to construct China's fusion engineering demonstration reactor (CFEDR) by 2030 [6]. - The final phase targets the establishment of commercial reactors by 2040, led by commercial companies in collaboration with industry chain enterprises [6]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Talent Development - Hefei's nuclear fusion ecosystem is supported by a large scientific apparatus cluster, with the Plasma Physics Research Institute at its core, which has developed significant devices for fusion research [7][9]. - The establishment of the Anhui Fusion Industry Association has brought together over 200 member units, covering key areas of the fusion supply chain [9]. - Hefei is addressing the shortage of engineering talent in the fusion field by creating a "college training + fund support" model, with plans to establish 10-20 fusion colleges across the country in the next five years [9][10]. Group 4: Capital Support - Hefei has developed a capital system characterized by "state-owned guidance + social participation + full-cycle service" to support the three-step strategy [12]. - A venture capital fund focused on fusion energy has been established with an initial scale of 1 billion yuan, aimed at matching the long-term characteristics of technology breakthroughs and industrial cultivation [12]. - The "Fusion Financial Institutions Alliance" has been formed to provide comprehensive financial services to fusion industry chain enterprises, enhancing capital accessibility [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights accelerated integration in the US fusion industry, with frequent technological breakthroughs and a continuous strengthening of the "engineering" logic [1] - International cooperation is advancing, with significant policy support at both national and international levels, emphasizing the strategic urgency of major economies in seizing future energy dominance [1][13][17] - The report notes substantial progress in various technological pathways, particularly in Tokamak device construction and other fusion technology routes, indicating a robust trajectory towards commercialization [2][19][25] Policy Insights - National policies are increasingly supportive of fusion energy, with the Chinese government explicitly including fusion technology in its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][11] - A cooperation agreement between China and France has been established, marking a new phase in international collaboration on fusion technology [13][14] - South Korea has advanced its fusion energy goals by moving the timeline for fusion power generation from the 2050s to the 2030s, highlighting the urgency among global economies [17][18] Industry Developments - Significant advancements in Tokamak devices include the completion of key plasma control coils for the JT-60SA, which is set to facilitate high-parameter experiments in 2026 [2][19] - The CRAFT facility has successfully passed its first performance test, confirming that its core components meet design specifications [21] - China's ITER project has officially commenced mass production of its first wall components, a critical step in the development of fusion reactors [22] Capital Market Activity - The US fusion industry is experiencing rapid consolidation, with notable mergers such as Trump Media and Technology Group's acquisition of TAE Technologies, which is set to launch the world's largest commercial fusion power plant [3][27][29] - Initial public offerings and significant funding rounds for startups in the fusion sector are on the rise, indicating growing investor confidence in fusion technology [3][33][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on midstream equipment companies such as Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Xuguang Electronics, and others, as well as upstream material suppliers like Yongding Co. and West Superconducting [4][37]

Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is transitioning from laboratory research to engineering and commercialization, with expectations to see the first operational fusion energy by around 2030 [1] - The core of fusion commercialization lies in finding a technically feasible and economically viable path [1] - China's fusion sector is characterized by a unique collaboration model involving state-owned enterprises, private companies, and diverse partnerships [1] Group 1: Technological Developments - Advanced tokamak devices like the "EAST" and "China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor" are leading the scientific exploration in China's fusion research [3] - The construction of key facilities for fusion technology research and verification is underway, aiming for operational demonstration by 2030 [3] - Private enterprises are diversifying technological approaches in fusion, with companies like Xinghuan Energy and Xineng Xuanguang focusing on innovative solutions [3] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises enhances the efficiency of technological iterations in fusion energy [3] - Major scientific advancements are driving demand for upstream industries such as superconducting materials and vacuum equipment [4] - Cross-domain collaboration is effectively integrating research resources and industry needs, significantly improving engineering progress [6] Group 3: Talent Development - The establishment of specialized educational institutions, such as the Fusion Science and Engineering College at Hefei University, is aimed at cultivating interdisciplinary talent [6][7] - Companies are enhancing practical capabilities through major projects and initiatives like the Xiyuan Fusion Innovation Fund to support young researchers [7] Group 4: Financial Support - Financial institutions are increasingly supporting the fusion industry, with the establishment of a Fusion Financial Alliance to align financial services with industry needs [9] - A new venture capital fund focused on fusion energy aims to create an investment evaluation system tailored to the industry's characteristics [9]

该联盟的宗旨是"产融共生、聚力创新"。据科大硅谷公司董事长吴海龙介绍，联盟将计划通过定期沙 龙、专题研讨、项目路演、企业调研等常态化活动，促进信息共享与精准对接。其首次项目路演将于1 月17日在中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院等离子体物理研究所举行。 安徽依托EAST、BEST等大科学装置，打造科研产业一条龙集群；四川凭借中国环流系列装置，深耕硬 装备制造；上海则利用资本和国际化优势，攻坚高温超导磁体等核心技术，布局未来产业标准……当 前，我国核聚变产业高地正在竞逐生态化发展，它们共同勾勒出核聚变商业化的早期版图。 "十五五"规划建议提出，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移 动通信等成为新的经济增长点。这意味着核聚变不仅是能源安全的远景保障，更是驱动高质量发展、塑 造新质生产力的重要抓手。2026年1月15日，《中华人民共和国原子能法》正式施行，从法律层面明确 支持聚变能源发展。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:马俊卿】 聚变新能（安徽）有限公司董事长严建文说，核聚变行业技术壁垒高、商业化周期长，仅靠科研经费和 初期投资难以支撑其走向商业应用。而这正是聚变金融机构联盟要解决的核心命题。 新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Titanium alloys are expected to continue penetrating various applications, driven by advancements in powder metallurgy and 3D printing technologies, which will further expand their usage [1][2][3]. Group 1: Titanium Alloy Applications - The first foldable screen product from Apple is anticipated to be released in 2026, which is expected to significantly increase the demand for titanium alloys due to their high strength, corrosion resistance, and favorable surface texture [3]. - Key applications of titanium alloys in foldable screens include: 1. Middle frame: Titanium alloy frames exhibit superior bending resistance compared to aluminum alloys while achieving lightweight, thus better protecting the screen and internal components [3]. 2. Screen backing: It supports the screen to ensure display quality and touch experience, guiding the screen to bend at specific angles during folding and unfolding, reducing creases. Using pure titanium backing can significantly lower the device's weight, balancing weight, performance, and processing costs [3]. 3. Other applications: Due to better toughness and corrosion resistance, titanium alloys are expected to be used in components like foldable screen axis covers [3]. - The development of 3D printed titanium alloys offers high design freedom, enabling the production of complex hollow or integrated structures that CNC cannot achieve, with gradual applications in aerospace, medical fields, and high-end consumer electronics [3]. Group 2: Domestic Enterprises and Market Demand - Domestic companies are deeply engaged in titanium alloy production and are expected to benefit from a surge in downstream demand [4]. - Powder metallurgy can also be utilized to prepare advanced fusion materials, with domestic enterprises actively overcoming critical bottlenecks. As global demand for sustainable energy grows, the commercialization of nuclear fusion continues to advance [4]. - The materials used in nuclear fusion reactors must withstand extreme conditions, including high-energy neutron irradiation, high temperatures, high heat flux, and strong magnetic fields, necessitating high-performance materials [4]. - Companies like Tiangong International are making significant progress in developing fusion materials through powder metallurgy, including advanced reduced activation ferritic-martensitic (RAFM) steel and high-boron steel for nuclear power, with core applications in shielding layers and vacuum chamber interlayers, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming demand for nuclear fusion [4].