| 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/13 | | | | 2025/5/6 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | SA05合 约 | 沙河重碱 1330.0 | 1330.0 | 1330.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 1281.0 | 1291.0 | 1262.0 | -19.0 | -29.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1290.0 | 1300.0 | 1300.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1337.0 | 1305.0 | 1282.0 | -55.0 | -23.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1330.0 | 1318.0 | 1291.0 | -39.0 | -27.0 | | ...

璃以天然气，煤炭，石油为原材料制作的玻璃，整体利润小幅增加，主要原因来自于原材料成本下跌，产 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 量整体保持平稳。需求端，个别企业灵活操作，下游拿货积极性一般。华南市场白玻价格维稳操作，下游 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 根据订单刚需采购为主，企业库存有所增加。目前期货价格已经毕竟生产成本价格，成本支撑可能会短期 免责声明 见效。操作上建议，玻璃主力合约2509，暂时观望,目前纯碱主力合约2509，暂时观望。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/12 | | | | 2025/5/6 | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/12 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | FG09合约 | 沙河安全 1198.0 | 1194.0 | 1194.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | | 1071.0 | 1034.0 | 1034.0 | -37.0 | 0.0 | | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | FG01合约 | 沙河长城 1194.0 | 1185.0 | 1181.0 | -13.0 | -4.0 | | 1117.0 | 1078.0 | 1078.0 | -39.0 | 0.0 | | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/8 | 2025/5/9 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/8 | 2025/5/9 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | FG09合约 | 沙河安全 1220.0 | 1198.0 | 1194.0 | -26.0 | -4.0 | | 1082.0 | 1057.0 | 1034.0 | -48.0 | -23.0 | | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | FG01合约 | 沙河长城 1207.0 | 1190.0 | 1185.0 | -22.0 | -5.0 | | 1131.0 | 1106.0 | 1078.0 | -53.0 | -28.0 | | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Thailand's delay in the rubber tapping season by one month boosts raw material prices, and the improvement in macro sentiment drives a slight rebound in rubber prices. However, the tariff policy weakens demand expectations, suppressing the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate widely, with an operating range of 14,500 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton (0.34%), and the whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 140 yuan/ton (87.50%). The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.35%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 40 yuan/ton (12.90%). The prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market dropped to 0, with a decline of 100%. In Xishuangbanna, the price of rubber blocks remained unchanged, and the price of glue decreased by 400 yuan/ton (-2.92%). The mainstream prices of raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-1.19%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-4.23%), and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton (24.44%) [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, Thailand's production decreased by 197,200 tons (-56.93%), Indonesia's production increased by 11,700 tons (5.92%), India's production decreased by 21,000 tons (-28.38%), and China's production increased by 15,800 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 14.08 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 11.47 percentage points. Domestic tire production in March increased by 188,600 pieces (1.79%), and tire export volume increased by 1,853,000 pieces (42.34%). The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 90,900 tons (18.07%), and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 7,500 tons (-9.87%) [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,797 tons (-0.62%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 3,527 tons (4.96%). The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 2.18 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: Information about maintenance plans and price - holding in the soda ash market disturbs the market, and the market trend is volatile. If maintenance is implemented, it will relieve supply pressure. In the short - term, the supply side may face more pressure due to high - level production and the expected production of Lianyungang Soda Industry in May. The recent reduction in float glass production capacity and the resumption of photovoltaic production bring some demand for soda ash, and the inventory of soda ash plants has remained stable. Future maintenance situations can be tracked. If maintenance occurs, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. One can consider short - term high - selling operations for single - side rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads for inter - month operations [4]. - **Glass**: The policies issued by the State Council Information Office last week had limited impact on the actual demand for glass, and the market reaction was muted. Recently, the spot price of glass has weakened, and the prices in the Shahe market have generally declined. The sales of futures - cash merchants have affected the production - sales rate of manufacturers. Although the downstream deep - processing orders have improved seasonally from April to May, the macro - environment is weak, and there is an expectation of a summer rainy season starting in June, which will slow down demand. It is expected that the short - term glass price will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to observe whether the 1000 level can support the 09 contract [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The price of Glass 2505 decreased by 6 yuan/ton (-0.57%), and the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-2.18%). The 05 basis increased by 6 yuan/ton (3.43%) [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.54%), and the price of Soda Ash 2509 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.39%). The 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-3.41%) [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.97 percentage points, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 14,000 tons (-1.89%), the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 3,000 tons (-1.71%), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased by 1,300 tons (1.32%). The price of 3.2mm coated glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased by 257,100 heavy boxes (3.96%), the soda ash factory inventory increased by 29,000 tons (1.74%), the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21,000 tons (5.89%), and the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The price of industrial silicon has remained weak. Although the industry is facing high supply and high - warehouse receipts pressure and the main demand continues to weaken, there are some signs of improvement. The supply in Sichuan has increased, but the reduction in Xinjiang has led to a significant weekly output decline, and warehouse receipts are being digested. Some enterprises in Xinjiang are reluctant to lower prices. The price fluctuation range is 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton. With limited demand growth, attention should be paid to whether there will be further production contractions [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and its basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-2.91%). The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and its basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-2.60%). The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.59%), and its basis decreased by 75 yuan/ton (-7.81%) [7]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-33.33%), the 2506 - 2507 spread remained unchanged, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton (14.29%), the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-25.00%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, the national industrial silicon production increased by 52,700 tons (18.20%), Xinjiang's production increased by 44,300 tons (26.57%), Yunnan's production increased by 1,400 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 170 tons. The national开工率 increased by 6.78 percentage points, Xinjiang's开工率 increased by 30.41 percentage points, Yunnan's开工率 decreased by 2.16 percentage points, and Sichuan's开工率 increased by 53.13 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 15,100 tons (-8.04%), the production of polysilicon decreased by 700 tons (-0.73%), the production of aluminum alloy increased by 28,000 tons (11.67%), and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 830 tons (-15.82%) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 400 tons (1.87%), the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan remained unchanged, the social inventory decreased by 700 tons (-1.16%), the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 540 tons (-1.57%), and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 160 tons (-0.62%) [7]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View There is a significant divergence between long and short positions in the polysilicon futures market, and the futures price has fluctuated significantly. The short side believes that demand decline will lead to inventory accumulation, price decline will be transmitted upstream, and cost reduction will open up downward space. The long side believes that production enterprises will increase maintenance and reduce production in May, which is expected to lead to slow inventory reduction. The futures price has fallen too fast and is at a large discount to the spot price, and the cost of deliverable products is higher. As of mid - May, there are still few warehouse receipts, and 20 lots of warehouse receipts have been cancelled, which is favorable for the long side. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 36,000 - 42,000 yuan/ton. One can try to go long at low prices or engage in positive spreads [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 880 yuan/ton (-24.79%), and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 880 yuan/ton (-13.44%). The average prices of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased, and the average prices of some battery cells and components also decreased [8]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The price of PS2506 increased by 880 yuan/ton (2.38%). The spreads between some contracts increased, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 800 yuan/ton (53.16%), and the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 80 yuan/ton (17.78%) [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 0.94 GW (-7.07%), and the weekly production of polysilicon decreased by 0.10 million tons (-4.46%). In April, the production of polysilicon decreased by 0.07 million tons (-0.73%), the import volume of polysilicon in March decreased by 0.02 million tons (-7.10%), the export volume decreased by 0.02 million tons (-10.40%), and the net export volume remained unchanged. In April, the production of silicon wafers increased by 7.59 GW (14.95%), the import volume in March decreased by 0.03 million tons (-32.03%), the export volume increased by 0.13 million tons (28.29%), and the net export volume increased by 0.16 million tons (42.57%). The demand for silicon wafers in April increased by 8.28 GW (14.36%) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons (-1.53%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.49 GW (-12.08%), and the polysilicon orders increased by 10 (33.33%) [8].

然橡胶产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月8日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月7日 | 5月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -110 | -115 | 5 | 4.35% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14400 | 14450 | -50 | -0.35% | | | 非标价差 | -410 | -365 | -45 | -12.33% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | રૂડે રેટ | 53.05 | 0.50 | 0.94% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 59.50 | 59.25 | 0.25 | 0.42% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13000 | 13000 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased by 22.0, from 1220.0 to 1198.0; that of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 13.0, from 1207.0 to 1194.0; and the lowest price of 5mm large - plate glass in Hubei decreased by 30.0, from 1140.0 to 1110.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The FG09 contract price decreased by 8.0 from 1082.0 to 1074.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased by 16.0 from 1131.0 to 1115.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 1.4 (from 265.7 to 264.3), and the cost decreased by 3.6 (from 907.3 to 903.7). The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 134.3, while the profit of North China natural - gas glass decreased by 5.0 (from - 203.2 to - 210.3) [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' glass price was around 1168, and the one - price offer for spot - futures was 1180 with weak transactions. The lowest price of factories in Hubei was around 1110. The sales - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 82 in Hubei, 105 in East China, and 115 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 (from 1340.0 to 1330.0), and that in Central China decreased by 20.0 and then increased by 10.0, finally reaching 1300.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 30.0 and then another 10.0, reaching 1220.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The SA05 contract price increased by 4.0 (from 1292.0 to 1296.0), the SA01 contract price decreased by 42.0 (from 1369.0 to 1327.0), and the SA09 contract price decreased by 29.0 (from 1352.0 to 1323.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process increased by 6.4 (from - 122.1 to - 107.0), and the cost decreased by 6.4 (from 1413.4 to 1407.0). The profit of North China combined - soda process decreased by 22.2 (from 40.5 to 18.3) [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1300, that at Shahe warehouses was around 1330, and the terminal delivery price was around 1350 - 1380. There are many maintenance expectations in May [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on glass and soda ash prices, profits, and related market indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 29 to May 6, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in some regions decreased. For example, the price of Shahe Safety 5mm large - plate dropped from 1220.0 to 1198.0, a decrease of 22.0; the price of Hubei large - plate low - price dropped from 1140.0 to 1110.0, a decrease of 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 1108.0 to 1071.0, a decrease of 37.0; the FG05 contract price decreased by 36.0 from April 29 to May 6 but increased by 7.0 from April 30 to May 6 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China coal - fired profit increased from 258.7 to 268.5, an increase of 9.8; the 09FG disk surface natural gas profit decreased from - 286.2 to - 313.6, a decrease of 27.3 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' price was around 1173, and the Hubei factory low - price was around 1110. The sales volume in Shahe was 98, in Hubei was 93, in East China was 107, and in South China was 114 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 29 to May 6, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1350.0 to 1330.0, a decrease of 20.0; the price of Central China heavy soda decreased from 1350.0 to 1290.0, a decrease of 60.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1329.0 to 1281.0, a decrease of 48.0; the SA01 contract price decreased by 50.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China ammonia - alkali profit decreased from - 84.7 to - 122.1, a decrease of 37.5; the North China combined - alkali profit decreased from 69.5 to 18.4, a decrease of 51.1 [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The heavy soda spot price in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1290, and in Shahe warehouses was around 1340. There were many maintenance expectations in May [1].

分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There is no explicit core viewpoint presented in the report. It mainly provides detailed data on glass and soda ash prices, profits, production and sales, etc. Summary of Glass Section Price Data - The price of 5mm large - plate glass from different manufacturers changed from April 22 to April 29, 2025. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1278.0 to 1220.0, with a weekly change of - 58.0 [1]. - Futures contract prices also changed. The FG09 contract price decreased from 1124.0 on April 22 to 1108.0 on April 29, with a weekly change of - 16.0 [1]. Profit Data - The profit of glass production using different energy sources and in different regions changed. For example, the profit of 09FG盘面 natural gas decreased from - 257.4 on April 22 to - 286.2 on April 29, with a weekly change of - 28.8 [1]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratios in different regions on April 29 were: Shahe 70, Hubei 89, East China 88, and South China 96 [1]. Summary of Soda Ash Section Price Data - The price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions changed from April 22 to April 29, 2025. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda increased from 1290.0 to 1350.0, with a weekly change of 60.0 [1]. - Futures contract prices also changed. The SA05 contract price increased from 1274.0 on April 22 to 1329.0 on April 29, with a weekly change of 55.0 [1]. Profit Data - The profit of soda ash production using different methods and in different regions changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased from - 149.8 on April 22 to - 84.7 on April 29, with a weekly change of 65.1 [1]. Other Data - The SA month - difference 05 - 9 decreased from - 41.0 on April 22 to - 47.0 on April 29, with a weekly change of - 6.0 [1].