每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五"|专访贺铿：必须改变以往将资金过度集中于房屋建设和基础 设施建设的倾向，更加突出民生领域投入 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，泰山石油（SZ 000554，收盘价：7.19元）10月22日晚间发布公告称，公司第十一届第十 五次董事会会议于2025年10月21日在公司三楼会议室以现场与通讯表决方式召开。会议审议了《2025年 三季度度报告全文》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，泰山石油的营业收入构成为：油品及天然气占比100.0%。 截至发稿，泰山石油市值为35亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Global Investment Conference will be held in Guangzhou, continuing the theme "Investing in the Greater Bay Area, Creating a Better Future" [1][2] - The conference aims to enhance investment and trade cooperation with developed countries and emerging markets, showcasing the economic vitality and investment potential of the Greater Bay Area [1][2] Summary of Achievements - The previous three conferences resulted in 3,645 signed projects with a total investment amount of 7 trillion yuan, including 92 projects exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - As of September this year, the overall project commencement rate from the three conferences is 88.1%, with an investment progress rate of 37.6% [2] - Notable projects from major companies such as Siemens Medical, Shell, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have progressed well, boosting strategic emerging industries in the province [2] Participation and Activities - Over 450 representatives from global Fortune 500 companies and foreign business associations are confirmed to attend, including 63 executives at the vice president level or above [1][2] - The conference will feature a series of activities, including a main event, nine regional investment conferences, and various domestic and international roadshows [2][4] Innovations in the Current Conference - This year's conference focuses on enhancing brand quality, integrating investment and trade, and promoting regional collaboration [4][5] - New initiatives include a special roundtable for unicorn companies and targeted investment promotion for strategic industry clusters [4] - The conference aims to attract high-quality projects and improve resource allocation across the region [5] Foreign Investment Trends - In the first nine months of this year, Guangdong established 24,000 new foreign-invested enterprises, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, with actual foreign investment amounting to 78.13 billion yuan, up 8.8% [5] - The province plans to further enhance support for foreign investment and create a top-tier business environment [5]

Group 1 - China Petroleum's stock increased by 1.62% on October 21, with a trading volume of 1.959 billion yuan [1] - The financing buy-in amount for China Petroleum on the same day was 187 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 183 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 3.44 million yuan [1] - As of October 21, the total balance of margin trading for China Petroleum was 2.31 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 2.291 billion yuan, accounting for 0.16% of the circulating market value, which is below the 30th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - China Petroleum's main business includes exploration, development, production, transportation, and sales of crude oil and natural gas, as well as new energy, refining, and chemical products [2] - As of June 30, 2025, China Petroleum reported a revenue of 1.450 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 83.993 billion yuan, down 5.21% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, China Petroleum has distributed a total of 875.28 billion yuan in dividends, with 247.08 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of China Petroleum included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several ETFs, with notable increases in holdings for some [3]

Market Overview - On October 22, the market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.89% [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in the deep earth economy sector, with companies like ShenKai Co. and Petrochemical Machinery achieving three consecutive trading limit increases [1] - The plant-based meat sector remained active, highlighted by Double Tower Food reaching its trading limit [1] - The robotics sector saw a rebound, with companies such as CITIC Heavy Industries, Ruineng Technology, and Southern Road Machinery also hitting their trading limits [1] Declining Sectors - The gold sector experienced a collective pullback, with Hunan Silver falling over 8% [1] - Other sectors that faced significant declines included communication equipment and forestry, which had the largest drops [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Since September, global crude oil loading volumes have increased significantly, mainly from the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Guyana. Guyana's loading volume increased from 700,000 barrels per day to 950,000 barrels per day after the commissioning of the Yellowtail FPSO project, with a faster - than - expected increase in shipments. Saudi Arabia's recent shipments have also increased to nearly 7 million barrels per day. Iraq's northern crude oil exports are expected to grow in the future as the recovery has not been reflected in shipping data [2]. - Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and previous short positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 30 cents to $57.82 per barrel, a 0.52% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 31 cents to $61.32 per barrel, a 0.51% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.64% at 439 yuan per barrel [1]. - Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, higher than the market expectation of 2.3%. The main driving factors were the narrowing year - on - year decline in gasoline prices and rising food prices. The probability that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 is over 86%. If the cut occurs, the benchmark policy rate will drop to 2.25%. Canada's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month in September, compared with a 0.1% decline in August [1]. - In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports climbed to a 29 - month high, approaching the highest level after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The four - week average export volume from its ports reached 3.82 million barrels per day, an increase of 80,000 barrels from the data for the period ending October 12, the highest since May 2023. However, exports may be approaching their peak [1]. - Malaysia's national oil company has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to jointly promote oil and gas exploration and production cooperation in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [1]. - The Russian military attacked Ukraine's energy facilities on the night of October 20 [1]. Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil loading volumes have increased significantly, with notable increases in Guyana and Saudi Arabia, and potential growth in Iraq's northern exports [2]. Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and previous short positions should be held [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is advancing the renovation of its Hainan regional headquarters project in Haikou's Jiangdong New Area, aiming for completion by the end of the year [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in the Jiangdong New Area headquarters economic zone, covering a total construction area of approximately 23,000 square meters and a total building area of about 75,000 square meters [2] - Upon completion, CNPC plans to leverage Hainan's free trade port policies and geographical advantages to further integrate resources and promote high-quality business development in Hainan [2]

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - On the institutional trading leaderboard, 27 stocks were listed, with 11 experiencing net buying and 16 facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: Online Offline (155 million), Bluefeng Biochemical (70.78 million), and Matrix Co. (25.64 million) [1] - Bluefeng Biochemical reported a 71.04% year-on-year increase in revenue from its photovoltaic segment, with N-type TOPCon component efficiency exceeding 23.6% and a double-sided rate over 85% [1] Group 2: Deep Earth Economy - The deep earth economy encompasses economic activities and related industrial chains focused on the development of deep earth resources and space utilization, including oil, gas, and mineral resources [2] - Analysts suggest that the deep earth economy is likely to be included in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 3: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - China’s largest heavy equipment manufacturing enterprise, CITIC Heavy Industries, is developing hydraulic pile drivers to meet future offshore wind power construction and marine infrastructure needs [4] - Wuhan's state-owned assets have surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with 206.15 billion yuan in assets revitalized and 111.05 billion yuan in revitalization income achieved by the end of September [5] - There is an increasing trend of mergers and acquisitions among central state-owned enterprises, driven by optimizing traditional business, exploring new sectors, and enhancing asset securitization [5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw a positive performance on October 21, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65% to 26,027.55 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.26% to 6,007.94 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.76% to 9,302.66 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened 301.41 points higher at 26,160.24 points, reached a peak of 26,367.35 points during the day, and closed with a gain of 168.72 points. The main board recorded a trading volume exceeding 264.6 billion HKD [1] - There were 1,315 stocks that rose, 884 that fell, and 1,000 that remained unchanged by the end of the trading day [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced gains, particularly in chips, AI healthcare, insurance, and brokerage stocks. However, sectors such as oil and gas, building materials, and banks showed mixed results, while gold, non-ferrous metals, coal, and new consumption sectors mostly declined [1] Notable Stocks - Individual stock movements included: - Jushuitan surged by 23.86% - Xiaomi Group fell by 1.44% - Meituan decreased by 0.16% - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose by 0.68% - China Construction Bank increased by 0.90% - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation gained 1.43% - Giant Bio fell by 4.01% - Yaojie Ankang dropped by 11.48% - Zijin Mining decreased by 0.37% - Ding Shi Capital surged by 33.12% - Tencent Holdings rose by 0.48% - Geely Automobile increased by 3.23% - NIO rose by 2.78% - CATL increased by 3.03% [1] Top Traded Stocks - The top three traded stocks included: - Alibaba, which rose by 1.98% with a trading volume exceeding 18.5 billion HKD - Pop Mart, which fell by 8.08% with a trading volume exceeding 9.8 billion HKD - SMIC, which increased by 3.13% with a trading volume exceeding 9.1 billion HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects from previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon, with a potential natural gas shortage in China after five years, positively impacting China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The La Niña signal appears to be strengthening, which could lead to a colder winter and a potential natural gas shortage in China [1] - Natural gas consumption in China is projected to accelerate from a 2% increase in summer to a 9% year-on-year growth this winter [1] Group 2: Company Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 10.25 for China Petroleum, rating the stock as "Overweight" due to significant profit upside potential [1] - The company is viewed as the preferred natural gas investment in China, benefiting from wholesale natural gas pricing reforms, reduced import costs, retail participation, and structural demand growth [1] - The natural gas business of China Petroleum, including exploration, production, distribution, and pipelines, is considered a utility asset, with expected natural gas profits potentially reaching about twice that of oil profits under oil prices between USD 60 to 65 per barrel [1]

大摩相信，中石油将仍是中国首选的天然气投资标的，因其批发端的天然气定价改革、进口成本下降、 零售的参与以及结构性需求增长。大摩将公司的天然气业务(勘探与生产、分销和管道)视为公用事业资 产，预计在油价介乎每桶60至65美元的背景下，明年中石油的天然气利润很可能达到石油利润的约两 倍。 大摩续指，拉尼娜信号似乎正在增强，如果真的出现，今个冬季可能变得更为寒冷，从而导致潜在的天 然气短缺。因此，天然气消费可能激增，批发和零售价格或上涨。今年冬季的天然气需求增长可能从今 夏的2%加速至同比增长9%。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，随着冬季即将来临，由厄尔尼诺现象造成的上两个暖冬影响已消退，因此即将 到来的冬天预期较以往更寒冷。此外，若拉尼娜信号(代表更冷的气候)持续增强，中国可能在久违五年 后，重新出现天然气短缺现象，中国石油股份(00857)或有显著的盈利上行空间，予该股目标价10.25港 元，评级"增持"。 ...