业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2605合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.38%。 行情展望：巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西1月份出口食糖201.75 万吨，同比减少2.09%。巴西2025/26榨季（4月-次年3月）以来截至2026年1月巴 西糖累计出口3023万吨，同比减少7.15%，1月巴西出口糖同比由增转降，供应压 力稍有所减少。国内春节备货结束，销区成交相对清淡，贸易、终端存货意愿不强， 传导销区销量下滑。基本面等待产量预期落地后，价格进行修复。主产区广西、云 南、广东产销数据表现一般，现货价格持稳为主，预计后市郑糖价格窄幅震荡，长 假临近，注意风险控制。 未来关注因素： 1、国内进口 2、需求 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图1、ICE美糖主力合约价格与CFTC原糖净持仓走势 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源：w ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to the previous low and then rose sharply due to expected lower sugar production and higher consumption in 2026/27, although India's sugar production may exceed expectations. [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from increased supply during the peak crushing season, but the pressure is expected to ease due to the sharp rebound in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, with prices likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom after hitting the bottom and rebounding, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to have a bottom - oscillating price. [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options, and expect a bottom - oscillating trend for the unilateral position. [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,214 with a rise of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with a rise of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with a rise of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262). [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), in Bayuquan 5435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 120, 225, 205, and 540 respectively. [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (up 5), and the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (down 6), and the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (down 1). [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 3921 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 4977 yuan/ton, with a spread of 383 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 341 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the quota - free price was 3966 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5036 yuan/ton, with a spread of 324 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 282 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the 2026/27 sugar - crushing season, the EU's beet planting area is expected to decline by 5% - 7%, and the sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons in 2025/26 to about 15.5 million tons. [5] - **Important Information**: Brazil's ethanol production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by 7.9% year - on - year to a record high of 36.5 billion liters. The increase may exceed the domestic market's digestion capacity and promote an increase in exports. [6][7] - **Important Information**: As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, with a cumulative cane crushing of 87.029 million tons (an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season) and a sugar production of 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar production rate of 9.27%. [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence has declined, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production may exceed expectations, sugar prices have risen after falling to the previous low due to expected lower production and higher consumption. Domestically, the sugar price pressure is expected to ease, and prices are likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral position, expect a bottom - oscillating price for international sugar and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach. [9][10][11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between different regions and varieties, and basis and spreads of different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND. [13][17][20]

2026 年 02 月 05 日 白糖：广西产糖率大幅下降 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.44 | -0.19 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 46 | 31 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5290 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -4 | 6 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5210 | 43 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 80 | -43 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：截至 1 月 15 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 22%。巴西 12 月出口 291 万吨，同比增 加 2.9%。中国 12 月进口食糖 58 万吨（+19 万吨）。截至 1 月底，25 /26 榨季广西累计产糖 403 万吨（-79 万 吨），产糖率 12.05%，同比下降 1.14 个百分点。关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政 ...

（张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： 消息方面，截至1月31日，2025/26年榨季广西累计入榨甘蔗3343.06万吨，同比减少309.71万吨；产混合 糖402.90万吨，同比减少78.80万吨；混合产糖率12.05%，同比下降1.14个百分点；累计销糖155.06万 吨，同比减少83.03万吨；产销率38.49%，同比下降10.94个百分点。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价 区间为5260~5340元/吨，报价持平；云南制糖集团报价5110~ 5180元/吨，下调10元/吨。原糖方面，周 边市场波动剧烈，基本面方面影响弱化。国内方面，假期临近，现货成交一般，昨日广西云南等产销数 据公布，基本符合预期。销售进度确实较慢，预计节后仍将成为制约反弹的重要因素，当前市场以窄幅 震荡对待。 棉花： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周三，ICE美棉下跌0.14%，报收62.22美分/磅，郑棉 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,214 | 37 | 0.71% | 25,546 | -14196 | 116,869 | 696 | | SR01 | | 5,318 | 38 | 0.72% | 968 | 619 | 2,391 | 743 | | SR05 | | 5,210 | 43 | 0.83% | 215,851 | -68473 | 451,761 | 262 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5360 | 5150 | 5620 | 5320 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 第二部分 行情研判 【重要资讯】 1. Covrig Analytics 首席农业分析师 Claudiu Covrig 表示，2026/27 年度全球糖过剩量预计 将缩减至 140 万吨低于 2025/26 年度的 470 万吨。Covrig 在迪拜糖业会议上指出，全球产量 预计将下降 1.3%至 1.916 亿吨，而消费量则有望增长 0.5%至 1.903 亿吨。 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,177 | -45 | -0.86% | 39,742 | 6672 | 116,173 | 4915 | | SR01 | | 5,280 | -43 | -0.81% | 349 | 83 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of migrant sugarcane workers, referred to as "sugar chasers," in the sugarcane harvesting industry in Guangxi, China, particularly in the city of Chongzuo, which is known as "China's Sugar Capital" [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Guangxi's Chongzuo city has a stable sugarcane planting area of over 4 million acres, with a target of 4.1 million acres by 2025, making it the largest sugarcane production base in China [2]. - The sugarcane harvesting season for 2025/2026 is expected to last until mid-March, indicating a robust production cycle [2]. Group 2: Workforce Dynamics - The article describes the diverse age range of sugarcane workers, from young individuals in their twenties to seniors over seventy, showcasing the labor force's dedication and resilience [1][2]. - Workers like 72-year-old Pan Xiuquan can harvest over 70 bundles of sugarcane daily, earning around 200 yuan, while others, such as Pan Jianping, can harvest about 100 bundles a day, contributing significantly to their household incomes [2][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The influx of approximately 1,000 "sugar chasers" each year helps efficiently meet the labor demands during the sugarcane harvesting season, addressing local labor shortages and facilitating timely agricultural activities [6]. - The article notes that the mechanization of the sugarcane industry is advancing, with 485 sugarcane harvesters and 4,888 sugarcane elevators expected to meet current harvesting and transportation needs by 2025 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate overnight, with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to the seasonal increase in sugar supply during the peak crushing season of southern sugar mills, unexpected high imports in December, and weak spot - market price and pre - holiday consumption [4]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated strongly overnight and maintained an overall strong trend. Driven by long - position funds and a weakening US dollar, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased trading volume. Although the pre - holiday replenishment of downstream textile mills provides some support and spot sales are smooth, the follow - up demand support needs to be observed as the replenishment is approaching the end [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For sugar futures contracts (2609, 2605, 2603), prices decreased with declines of - 0.80%, - 0.78%, - 0.57% respectively compared to the previous two days. For 11 - number sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the price of 2603 remained unchanged, while 2607 and 2605 decreased by - 0.43% and - 0.42% respectively. There were also changes in持仓 volume and trading volume, with some contracts seeing an increase and others a decrease [1]. - **Price Difference Information**: The present values of price differences between different sugar futures contracts and 11 - number sugar futures contracts have changed compared to the previous values [1]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot Price**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5360 and 5175 respectively, showing a decrease compared to the previous values. The basis values in different regions also changed [1]. - **Sugar Import Price**: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, decreased compared to the previous values. The differences between futures prices and Thai sugar prices also slightly decreased [1]. Inventory and Position - The current sugar warehouse receipts are 14069, with an effective prediction of 197, and the total of warehouse receipts and predictions is 14266. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar and their ratio also changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry News - **Import Forecast**: The Ministry of Commerce reported that the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in January was 0 tons [2]. - **Brazilian Shipping Data**: As of the week ending January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 178.26 million tons, with 163.03 million tons being high - grade raw sugar. The waiting sugar quantities at Santos and Paranagua ports were also reported [2]. - **Brazilian Production Forecast**: StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous forecast, while ethanol production is expected to be 36.5 billion liters, an increase of 0.4 billion liters [2]. - **Indian Production Data**: As of January 31, 2026, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The number of operating sugar mills also increased. Different states in India showed varying degrees of production growth. Also, 18 sugar mills had stopped operating, and relevant data on cane crushing and sugar production were reported [3].

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | 5,222 | -42 | -0.80% | 33,070 | -3601 | 111,258 | 539 | | SR01 | 5,323 | -34 | -0.63% | 266 | -124 | 1,434 | 16 | | SR05 | 5,207 | -41 | -0.78% | 319,755 | 4466 | 441,083 | -11054 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | 5360 | 5175 | 5620 | 5330 | 5460 | 5415 | 57 ...

数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5207 | -41 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 441083 | -11054 353 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 14069 | -50 期货前20名持仓: ...