Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for expected production increases in India and Thailand's 25/26 sugar seasons is high, suppressing sugar prices. Brazil's overall sugarcane pressing situation is poor due to low precipitation, leading to a lower ATR value and an increased sugar - ethanol ratio. China's out - of - quota sugar import window has been fluctuating, resulting in a significant increase in July's import volume and an expected high volume in August [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include strong domestic sugar sales in some regions, sufficient end - of - season sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, poor production in Brazil's 25/26 season, and potential increased demand from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US. Negative factors include increased sugar production in some regions, expected production growth in Brazil and Thailand, early monsoons in India, large import volumes in July and expected high volumes in August, and poor sales in some regions in July [5][8]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR511C5800) at 30 - 40 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR511P5500) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 seasons suppress sugar prices. Brazil's poor pressing situation due to low precipitation leads to low ATR values, and China's fluctuating import window causes large import volumes [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of July, sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year, with higher sales rates and lower industrial inventory in some cases. India's 2024/25 end - of - season sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil's 25/26 season production is poor, and there are potential demand increases from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US [5][6][8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production increased in some regions. Analysts expect production growth in Brazil's 25/26 season and Thailand's 24/25 season. India's early monsoons may lead to a production recovery. July's import volume is large, and sales in some regions in July were poor [8][9]. 3.5 Price Data - **Base Price Changes**: On August 21, 2025, the base prices of sugar in different regions and contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of sugar futures contracts had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also changes in the spreads between different contracts [11]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, sugar spot prices in different regions and the regional price spreads had specific daily and weekly changes [12]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On August 22, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar had daily and weekly changes, as well as the price spreads compared to domestic prices [13].

进口量增加，抑制白糖上方空间 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 白糖市场周报 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑糖2601合约价格反弹，周度涨幅约0.11%。 国际方面，一方面，亚洲主要产糖国生产前景良好，全球供应预期偏松，另 一反面，市场担忧2025/26年度巴西甘蔗含糖量，且需求有改善迹象，原糖维 持低位震荡行情。国内方面，配额外利润窗口持续打开，进口压力释放，7月 食糖进口量环比大幅增加，为近十年同期最高，8-9月仍是高峰期。甜菜糖9 月开榨，届时供应阶段性增加。需求端，后市双节备货启动，需求有望增加。 库存方面，因前期产销进度良好，库存压力不大，但加工糖数量增加，当前 去库存进程明显放缓。新作方面，新榨季产量预计保持在近四年以来高位。 总体来说，目前国产糖库存压力不大，且短时间双节备货预期，为白糖价格 带来支撑，外盘价格低位震荡，外弱内强格局明显。不过与其同时，进口大 幅增 ...

北安农糖牧肥循环经济全产业链项目是落实新质生产力的标杆工程，作为北安"2+1"主导产业五大产业链的"链 主"项目，它深度融合地方资源与龙头企业优势，强力推动一、二、三产协同发展。塞北糖业项目在其中扮演 着不可替代的核心角色。该项目通过"产业链布局、集群化发展"的设计理念，将有效串联甜菜种植、青储玉米 与牧草配套、肉牛规模化养殖以及食糖、饲料精深加工销售等环节。其深度互补与高效协同效应，将强力驱动 北安市构建"种养加结合、农牧糖协同"的闭合式循环经济模式。 塞北糖业项目的稳步推进与即将释放的产能，不仅夯实了"农糖牧肥"循环产业链的加工转化中枢，更将以显著 的拉动效应，为地方经济高质量发展注入澎湃而可持续的新动能。一个依托资源禀赋、创新驱动、绿色循环的 现代农业产业集群，正在北安加速崛起。（黑河市融媒体中心） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 据黑河市融媒体中心8月21日消息，作为黑龙江省黑河市北安市农糖牧肥循环经济全产业链项目的核心引擎， 由北安塞北糖业投资建设的年加工60万吨甜菜及精炼糖建设项目正全速推进，全面融入北安市项目"大干快 上"的建设热潮。 该项目位于北安市延安大街北侧、长青水库东岸，总投资5 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 21 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 马来西亚进口 0.13 万吨;同期 21069062 项下进口预混粉 26.51 万吨，绝大部分 26.14 万吨从泰 国进口。 3、沐甜 21 日讯：广西:南宁中间商站台报价 6010 元/吨，报价上调 10 元，成交一般;南 宁仓库报价 5970 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。柳州中间商站台报价 6030 元/吨，仓库报价 5980-6000 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。广东:广州中间商湛江糖报价 6080 元/吨，报价不变， 成交一般。湛江中间商仓库报价暂无。 | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stocking phase due to the supply peak in Brazil, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is influenced by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and short - term traders can consider shorting at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,727 with a gain of 11 (0.19%), SR01 at 5,676 with a gain of 15 (0.26%), and SR05 at 5,633 with a gain of 14 (0.25%). The trading volume of SR09 decreased by 11,626 to 7,025, SR01 decreased by 17,130 to 153,382, and SR05 increased by 22 to 5,472. The open interest of SR09 decreased by 3,907 to 25,928, SR01 increased by 5,283 to 343,739, and SR05 increased by 171 to 26,617 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some fluctuations. In places like Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc., prices changed, with Liuzhou at 6030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Kunming at 5905 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. The basis for different regions ranged from 178 to 643 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 43 (down 1), SR09 - SR5 spread was 94 (down 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was 51 (down 4) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 4435 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5648 yuan/ton, with a spread of 382 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou prices and 402 yuan/ton compared to Rizhao prices. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 4453 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5671 yuan/ton, with spreads of 359 yuan/ton and 379 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: From January to July 2025, China imported 179 million tons of sugar, including 168,400 tons of white sugar and 1.6125 billion tons of raw sugar. In July, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 622,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 557,600 tons [7][8][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, due to the supply peak in Brazil, the global sugar inventory is expected to increase, and raw sugar prices have declined. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low, but a large amount of imported sugar is entering the market, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow the international trend [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, for unilateral trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14].

2025 年 08 月 20 日 国际市场：ISO 预计 24/25 榨季全球食糖供应短缺 547 万吨 (前值短缺 488 万吨)。UNICA 数据显示，截 至 7 月 16 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部甘蔗累积压榨量同比下降 9.6 个百分点，累计产糖 1566 万吨（-159 万 吨），累计 MIX51.02% 同比提高 2.69 个百分点。ISMA/NFCSF 预计，25/26 榨季印度总糖产量 3490 万吨， 24/25 榨季为 2950 万吨（+540 万吨）。OCSB 数据显示，24/25 榨季泰国累计产糖 1008 万吨（+127 万吨）。 白糖：7 月进口量同比大幅增加 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.3 | 0.06 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 55 | -9 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5990 | 0 | 15 价差（元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COFCO Sugar Holdings Co., Ltd. experienced abnormal trading fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days in August 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Trading Abnormalities - The company's stock price increased significantly on August 15, 18, and 19, 2025, leading to a classification of abnormal trading behavior as per the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [2][3]. - The company confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant information affecting the stock's trading fluctuations, based on self-inspection and consultation with its controlling shareholder, COFCO Group [4][5]. Group 2: Operational and Financial Status - The company reported that its production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in its main business despite a more complex external operating environment [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating a range of 42.384 million to 49.076 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 37.174 million to 43.866 million yuan compared to the same period last year, equating to a year-on-year decline of 43.10% to 50.86% [2][8]. Group 3: Management and Disclosure - The company and its controlling shareholder have confirmed that there are no undisclosed major matters related to the company [5]. - During the period of stock price fluctuations, there were no transactions involving the company's stock by its controlling shareholders, directors, supervisors, or senior management [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to start accumulating. Recent reports show high sugar production and a record - high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, leading to a likely higher - than - expected sugar output and a decline in raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress [11]. - Domestic market: The sales of domestic sugar are fast, and inventories are low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. Domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. In the short - term, consider short - selling at high prices. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. Sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures market**: SR09 closed at 5,716 with a decline of 20 (-0.35%), SR01 at 5,661 (-11, -0.19%), and SR05 at 5,619 (-7, -0.12%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [5]. - **Spot market**: Today's sugar prices in different regions are as follows: 6040 in Liuzhou, 5905 in Kunming, 6220 in Wuhan, 5980 in Nanning, 6175 in Bayuquan, 6050 in Rizhao, and 6370 in Xi'an. The price in Wuhan decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged. The basis and monthly spreads are also provided [5]. - **Import profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - free price is 4435, and the out - of - quota price is 5648. For Thai imports, the quota - free price is 4453, and the out - of - quota price is 5671 [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important information**: - Brazil exported 188.32 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August 2025, with a daily average of 17.12 million tons. In August 2024, the export volume was 392.08 million tons, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [7]. - In July 2025, the sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the recoverable sugar decreased by 4.8% [7]. - In July 2025, China's beverage output was 1796.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 11101.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [7]. - In July 2025, China's refined sugar output was 41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 982.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [8][10]. - In Yunnan, the average number of effective sugarcane stems per mu this year is 4200, an increase of 80 compared to last year. As of July, the average height of sugarcane is 127.2 cm, an increase of 3 cm compared to last year [10]. - **Logical analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazil's high - peak supply. Domestic sugar prices are influenced by international prices due to the entry of imported sugar [11]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling at high prices [12]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Options trading**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts, such as those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales rates of domestic sugar, basis, and price spreads [15][20][24][26][28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR2601 contract for sugar is expected to be prone to short - term decline but with limited downside space, finding support at the 5500 price level. Globally, the sugar supply - demand remains in a competitive situation. In the 2025/26 season, major producing countries are expected to increase production. In Brazil, the 2025/26 crushing season is in its peak, and with an abundant harvest expected, the market is mainly in a stable operation, though ethanol mixing has raised the price floor, providing short - term support for raw sugar. In China, the production and sales scale is relatively fast, but the third - party inventory situation is complex. With the increase in the arrival of raw sugar in recent months, the supply side remains loose. Terminal consumption has improved to some extent with the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling [3]. - It is recommended to conduct interval trading with a high - selling strategy for the SR2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5500 yuan per ton, and near this cost, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price and Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: This week, the ICE raw sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then rose. The basis between futures and spot slightly recovered, but the basis value slightly declined. As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 240 yuan/ton, and that of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 316 yuan/ton [8][13][14]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads among different futures contracts, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads, showed certain changes this week. The price spreads between different regions' spot white sugar also had corresponding fluctuations. The spread between starch sugar and white sugar was also presented in the report [8]. 3.2 International Supply - **Brazil**: The 2024/26 sugar - crushing season in Brazil has a fixed output of 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared to the previous period, but still within a historically high - output range. As of the first half of July in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in July showed an increase, and based on the weather in the second half of July and the first half of August, the short - term production is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 41 million tons. As of August 8, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil's São Paulo region was 65.57%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.51 cents per pound. As of August 13, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons from the previous week [33][34][61]. - **India and Thailand**: India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, reaching about 34.9 million tons. Thailand's 2024/25 season production reached 10.0418 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [81][86]. - **Global**: The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season has a marginally tightened loose pattern compared to the previous period. The 2025/26 season is expected to turn to a loose pattern. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus [96]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Production**: The 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in China has ended, with a total output of 11.1621 million tons. Guangxi's output was 6.46 million tons, and Yunnan's was 2.4188 million tons. Other regions also increased production due to the expansion of planting areas [105]. - **Import**: The quota - free import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, and the arrival of sugar continued to increase. It is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. The import of syrup and premixed powder is also under control, with the import of items under tariff code 170290 remaining at a low level, while the import of items under 2106.90.6 increased significantly [116][117][138]. 3.4 Sales and Inventory - **Sales**: As of the end of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5961 million tons, with a sales rate of 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the previous year. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 3.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons, with a sales rate of 85.01%, 2.51 percentage points higher than the previous year [150]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June 2025, the industrial inventory in China was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [154][161]. 4. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and also sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders looking to build inventory and buy sugar at low prices can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders with inventory aiming to sell at high prices can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises in need of raw materials worried about price increases can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises with high raw material inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5].

研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 巴西制糖比继续升高 外盘价格下跌 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，考虑到巴西迎来供应高峰，预计全球库存即将进入累库阶段，最近一期报告显示巴西双周白糖产量达到360多万吨， 双周制糖比例升至54.1%达到历史高位，巴西白糖累计产量减幅继续缩小，巴西双周制糖比继续升高，巴西白糖产量增幅可能要 超出预期，因此近期原糖价格有所下跌。关注巴西糖产进度。 国内市场，国产糖产销速度偏快，食糖库存偏低，但是近期有大量进口糖开始陆续进口到国内市场，国内白糖价格受国际糖价 影响预计郑糖价格将跟随外糖走势。 【交易策略】 1. 单边：短期内郑糖价格受内外市场影响预计偏震荡，短期可考虑逢高沽空。 2. 套利：观望。 3. 期权：观望。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 ...