Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise by 600 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.49 to 0.51 yuan per liter, with 92-octane gasoline potentially reaching 7.5 to 7.7 yuan per liter and 95-octane gasoline entering the "8 yuan era" [2] - The primary reason for the price increase is the uncertainty in the international crude oil market, exacerbated by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a surge in global transportation demand during the summer travel season [2] - The influx of speculative funds into the futures market has further pushed up oil prices, with Brent crude futures maintaining levels above 85 USD per barrel, providing cost support for domestic refined oil price adjustments [2] Group 2 - China's crude oil production has increased to 209 million tons from 2019 to 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, with production further rising to 143 million tons in the first eight months of 2024 [3] - The crude oil processing volume in China has shown a stable upward trend, reaching 70.3554 million tons in 2021, with a cumulative growth of 4.3% [4] - Analysts suggest that the tight supply-demand balance in the international crude oil market is unlikely to ease in the short term, and geopolitical risks remain, indicating that oil prices may continue to operate at high levels [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous oscillation and starting to break upward. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options for stock index options. In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.72% to - 0.79%. Volumes were 39,772.00 (current month), 2,237.00 (next month), 56,221.00 (next quarter), and 9,123.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 4,653.00, 623.00, 3,684.00, and 1,256.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with declines from - 1.12% to - 1.17%. Volumes were 20,919.00 (current month), 1,487.00 (next month), 32,852.00 (next quarter), and 3,919.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 2,572.00, 377.00, 4,634.00, and 1,039.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased, with increases from 0.23% to 0.27%. Volumes were 36,609.00 (current month), 3,200.00 (next month), 32,557.00 (next quarter), and 10,256.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 1,525.00, 922.00, 3,085.00, and 202.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with increases from 0.02% to 0.20%. Volumes were 55,188.00 (current month), 4,157.00 (next month), 113,010.00 (next quarter), and 21,753.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest changes varied, with a decrease of 663.00 in the current month and increases in other periods [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with IF next month - IF current month spread increasing from - 12.60 to - 9.60, IH next month - IH current month spread increasing from - 5.20 to - 4.40, IC next month - IC current month spread increasing from - 38.40 to - 37.20, and IM next month - IM current month spread decreasing from - 55.20 to - 56.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by - 0.61%, the SSE 50 index decreased by - 1.13%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.44%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.47%. The trading volumes and total transaction amounts of these indexes also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries showed different trends. Industries such as raw materials, telecommunications services had positive growth rates, while industries like real estate finance, major consumption had negative growth rates [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, inter - quarter) to the CSI 300 index changed compared to the day before yesterday, with the current month basis changing from - 25.22 to - 29.76, and so on [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by - 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by - 0.48%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by - 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by - 0.66% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.65%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.80%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.64% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The 2025 Listed Companies Forum was held in Wenzhou from June 28th - 29th, where the four major exchanges (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong) released multi - dimensional reform signals. Over 30 A - share companies have submitted H - share listing applications, and over 20 A - share companies have announced H - share listing plans [2] - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions in Japan under certain conditions [2] - A more proactive fiscal policy has been implemented this year. In the second half of the year, fiscal policy will focus on the early issuance and use of ultra - long - term special bonds and local government special bonds, and incremental reserve policies may be introduced [2] - The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, said that Hong Kong should play a connecting role and explore new business opportunities [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 1st, and it is predicted that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 600 yuan/ton [2] - The number of public fund managers reached a new high of 4,041 in the first half of this year, a 19% increase from the beginning of the year. At the same time, 182 fund managers left their positions [2] - Private banks have frequently lowered deposit interest rates this year, but some still maintain relatively high rates, and there is a significant differentiation among them [2] - From January to May this year, domestic passenger ships sent 113 million passengers, an increase of 7.37% year - on - year; international vessels had 179,800 port calls, an increase of 2.45% year - on - year; and the cargo carried by international vessels was 1.987 billion tons, an increase of 1.66% year - on - year [2]

Group 1: Domestic Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment will begin at 24:00 on July 1, with predictions indicating an increase of 600 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a rise of 0.49-0.51 CNY per liter [2] Group 2: Shanghai LEGO Resort Opening - The Shanghai LEGO Resort will open on July 5, featuring a six-tier ticket pricing system, with children's one-day tickets starting at 255 CNY and adult tickets as low as 319 CNY [3] Group 3: Global Digital Economy Conference - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference will be held from July 2 to July 5 in Beijing, showcasing new technologies and products, and hosting 46 thematic forums focused on emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and digital security [4] Group 4: Stock Unlocking Events - Over 816 billion CNY in market value of restricted stocks will be unlocked in the A-share market from June 30 to July 4, with 68 stocks facing unlocking, including Zhong无人机 with a market value exceeding 200 billion CNY [5][6] Group 5: New Stock Opportunities - One new stock, Tongyu New Materials, is set to be issued on the ChiNext board from June 30 to July 4, focusing on the research, production, and sales of electronic resins primarily used in copper-clad laminate production [9][10]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits slightly declined, with watermelon, banana, and grape decreasing by 3.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively [1] - Average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.13 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cauliflower, pumpkin, and garlic decreasing by 5.6%, 4.3%, and 4.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices continued to decline, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, while rice increased by 0.2% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly increased, with crucian carp, large yellow croaker, and silver carp rising by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices were mainly up, with pork at 20.30 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.1%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline rising by 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.0% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were mainly up, with methanol, sulfuric acid, and polypropylene increasing by 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with urea increasing by 0.2% and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained stable, with aluminum increasing by 1.0%, while zinc and copper decreased by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to decline, with coking coal and No. 2 smokeless lump coal decreasing by 1.0% and 0.1% respectively, while thermal coal remained stable at 750 yuan per ton [2] - Steel prices slightly decreased, with welded steel pipes, ordinary medium plates, and high-speed wire rod decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices of poultry products slightly declined, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 2.6% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits saw a slight decrease, with watermelon, banana, and citrus dropping by 3.1%, 2.2%, and 1.7% respectively [1] - Overall wholesale prices of meat decreased, with pork priced at 20.32 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.6%, while beef and lamb fell by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables remained stable at 4.14 yuan per kilogram, with certain vegetables like green beans, pumpkin, and bitter melon decreasing by 6.9%, 5.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable, with carp, large yellow croaker, and silver carp decreasing by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while soybean oil and peanut oil increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials generally increased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, and polypropylene rising by 1.2%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.6% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline all rising by 0.1% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with aluminum and copper increasing by 1.1% and 0.9%, while zinc decreased by 1.9% [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with specific types like channel steel, ordinary medium plate, and welded steel pipe priced at 3585 yuan, 3722 yuan, and 3775 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to decline, with coking coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 930 yuan, 1144 yuan, and 750 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.9%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices generally decreased, with urea dropping by 1.2%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with watermelon, citrus, and banana decreasing by 6.7%, 1.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.13 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with eggplant, green beans, and cucumber decreasing by 5.5%, 3.8%, and 3.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.60 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.5%, while lamb remained stable and beef increased by 0.2% [1] - Wholesale prices of grain and oil showed a stable increase, with flour, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil rising by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly increased, with carp, crucian carp, and grass carp rising by 1.5%, 1.5%, and 1.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel dropping by 2.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively [2] - Coal prices experienced minor decreases, with coking coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 962 yuan, 1165 yuan, and 753 yuan per ton, down by 0.9%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Steel prices generally decreased, with rebar, ordinary high-speed wire rod, and channel steel priced at 3451 yuan, 3659 yuan, and 3666 yuan per ton, all down by 0.4% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices mainly declined, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.7% and 0.6%, while aluminum increased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly receded, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene decreasing by 1.6% and 0.4%, while sulfuric acid remained stable and soda ash increased by 0.3% [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.4% from the previous week, with the average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables at 4.17 yuan per kilogram, down 1.7%. Notable declines include lettuce, cucumber, and green beans, which fell by 5.6%, 5.0%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with white strip chicken and eggs dropping by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Meat wholesale prices overall declined, with pork at 20.71 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3%, and beef down 0.2%, while lamb prices remained stable [1] - The wholesale prices of six types of fruits showed slight fluctuations, with watermelon, banana, citrus, and apple prices decreasing by 3.1%, 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively, while grapes increased by 3.7% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices experienced a slight increase, with grass carp, silver carp, and crucian carp rising by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Coal prices experienced a slight decline, with thermal coal, coking coal, and No. 2 smokeless block coal priced at 755 yuan, 971 yuan, and 1170 yuan per ton, down by 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid decreasing by 0.3%, while methanol, soda ash, and polypropylene increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices showed slight volatility, with 92-octane gasoline and 95-octane gasoline both decreasing by 0.2%, while 0-octane diesel increased by 0.2% [2] - Steel prices saw a slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and ordinary medium plates priced at 3615 yuan, 3861 yuan, and 3806 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices overall increased, with urea rising by 0.3% and the price of compound fertilizers decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly up, with aluminum and copper increasing by 2.4% and 0.7%, while zinc decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 2.5% and 0.5% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.7% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0%, with significant declines in tomatoes, zucchini, and green beans by 9.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.7% and 0.3% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly decreased, with pork at 20.77 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4%, while lamb and beef also fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable overall, with some fish types experiencing minor declines and others seeing slight increases [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil down 0.2%, while canola oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with grapes, apples, and pears rising by 2.0%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally decreased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene falling by 2.0%, 1.9%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0 diesel down by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals mainly declined, with aluminum and zinc decreasing by 1.2% and 0.1%, while copper saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2] - Coal prices experienced slight declines, with thermal coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and coking coal priced at 770 yuan, 1177 yuan, and 980 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices slightly retreated, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3462 yuan, 3670 yuan, and 3599 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with slight increases, as the price of compound fertilizer remained unchanged while urea rose by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.2% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows steady growth in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in yuan terms and 1.3% in dollar terms, indicating a recovery in the economy [1][2]. Trade Performance - In April, China's import and export value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. Exports saw a slight decline in growth rate to 9.3%, while imports turned from a decline to a growth of 0.8% [1][2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.5%, accounting for over 60% of total exports. Key products such as automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles saw growth rates of 5.6%, 14.7%, and 4% respectively [2]. - The import of crude oil increased by 0.5%, while imports of iron ore, coal, natural gas, soybeans, and refined oil saw a decrease, with overall prices (excluding refined oil) declining [2]. Trade Methods and Entities - General trade saw a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, making up 64% of total foreign trade. Processing trade and bonded logistics trade grew by 6.6% and 7% respectively [3]. - Private enterprises accounted for 8.05 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, representing 56.9% of total foreign trade, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. Trade Partners - Trade with neighboring countries reached 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with growth accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Notably, trade with ASEAN and Central Asian countries grew by 9.2% and 9.9% respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The proportion of high-tech industries in exports has increased, enhancing resilience against external pressures such as tariffs. The focus on market diversification and the development of new business models like cross-border e-commerce is crucial for maintaining market share [4]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: the increased share of high-tech industries, the dominant role of private enterprises in responding quickly to global market demands, and the proactive expansion into neighboring markets [4].

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.37 yuan per kilogram, down 3.3%, with lettuce, green peppers, and tomatoes decreasing by 7.8%, 7.2%, and 6.0% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Fish wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with large hairtail fish decreasing by 1.7%, while carp, grass carp, silver carp, large yellow croaker, and crucian carp saw increases of 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil and flour decreasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while rice and peanut oil remained stable, and rapeseed oil increased by 0.1% [1] - Meat wholesale prices were predominantly rising, with pork priced at 20.86 yuan per kilogram, up 0.2%, and beef increasing by 0.1%, while lamb decreased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw slight increases, with grapes, citrus, and bananas rising by 4.5%, 3.1%, and 1.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and polypropylene dropping by 3.0%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively, while soda ash increased by 0.1% [2] - The wholesale prices of refined oil generally declined, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 772 yuan per ton, down 0.5%, while two types of smokeless coal and coking coal increased by 0.3% each, priced at 1178 yuan and 981 yuan per ton respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained relatively stable, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while aluminum increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw slight increases, with urea and compound fertilizers both rising by 0.1% [2] - Steel prices were predominantly rising, with high-speed wire, rebar, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3677 yuan, 3472 yuan, and 3790 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.6% and 0.6% respectively [2]