Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **PTA**: The near - term TA start - up has increased slightly, polyester load has declined further, inventory has continued to accumulate, the basis has declined, and spot processing fees have weakened significantly. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. There may be a reduction in supply at the margin as the spot processing fee is extremely low. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [2]. - **MEG**: The near - term domestic coal - to - MEG restart has led to an increase in the start - up rate. With Saudi Arabian plants restarting, port inventory will accumulate next week. As Iranian and ethane supplies have not decreased, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to changes in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term supply has decreased due to the production cut of Ningbo Dafa. Production and sales have remained stable, and inventory has basically remained unchanged. Demand from the polyester yarn end has continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished product inventory increasing. Processing fees are expected to be range - bound as supply has neither decreased significantly nor increased [3]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The national explicit inventory has remained stable at a relatively low level but has not decreased seasonally. The price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Styrene**: No clear forward - looking view is provided in the data, only price changes are presented [6]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 10 to July 16, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.2, PTA spot price decreased by $20, and PTA processing fee increased by $19. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(+5) [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - term TA start - up has increased slightly, polyester load has declined, inventory has accumulated, and the basis has declined [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 10 to July 16, the MEG outer - market price decreased by $1, and the MEG coal - to - profit decreased by $8. The basis is around 09(+70) [3]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - term domestic coal - to - MEG restart has led to an increase in the start - up rate. Saudi Arabian plants are restarting, and port inventory will accumulate next week [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 10 to July 16, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by $35, and the short - fiber profit decreased by $30 [3]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - term supply has decreased due to the production cut of Ningbo Dafa. Production and sales have remained stable, and inventory has basically remained unchanged [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 10 to July 16, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by $50, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by $455 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory has remained stable, and Thai cup rubber price has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [3]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From July 10 to July 16, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by $10, and the price of styrene decreased by $25 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: Styrene domestic profit remained at $4 on July 15 and 16, and EPS domestic profit decreased by $110 on July 16 compared to July 15 [6].

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/11 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 7/04 68.3 579 840 4835 6885 78.11 261.0 256 139 82.8 78.2 33074 105 0.35 2025/0 7/07 69.6 577 842 4810 6770 66.98 265.0 213 52 82.8 78.2 36428 95 0.40 2025/0 7/08 70.2 587 847 4800 6760 72.30 260.0 175 50 82.8 78.2 45812 90 0.35 2025/0 7/09 70.2 598 850 4750 6700 83.76 252.0 107 33 82.8 78.2 46058 25 0.40 2025/0 7/10 68.6 591 852 4735 6645 87.87 261.0 83 -19 82. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, it has entered the inventory accumulation stage. The slope of inventory accumulation depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. The short - term processing fee has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of filament [2]. - For MEG, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. Considering the low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the supply has not significantly decreased due to acceptable profitability and inventory pressure. However, due to weak domestic demand, the upside potential of valuation is limited, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national visible inventory without seasonal depletion and the rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, crude oil price remained unchanged at 70.2, naphtha increased by 11 to 598, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3 to 850, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 50 to 4750, and polyester yarn POY 150D/48F decreased by 60 to 6700. The naphtha cracking spread increased by 11.46 to 83.76, PX processing margin decreased by 8 to 252, PTA processing margin decreased by 68 to 107, and polyester gross profit decreased by 17 to 33 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hainan Yisheng's 2 million - ton device increased its load [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA operation rate was stable, polyester operation rate declined faster, inventory slightly accumulated, the basis weakened significantly, and spot processing fee decreased [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 820, MEG outer - market price remained at 509, MEG inner - market price increased by 2 to 4347, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 2 to 583 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hainan Yisheng's 2 million - ton device increased its load [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - based plants had maintenance, the operation rate decreased slightly. Saudi plants had some accidents, port inventory decreased at the beginning of next week but was expected to accumulate again during the week. The basis was stable, and the profit - to - price ratio was maintained [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 5 to 6730, and short - fiber profit increased by 38 to 196 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information was provided [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end Jiangyin Huaxi reduced production, the operation rate dropped to 93.0%. Sales were stable compared to the previous period, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn decreased, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory continued to accumulate [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained at 1705, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 20 to 13860, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 60 to 13645 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The national visible inventory was stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 820, pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 731, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 910 [5]. - **Profit Changes**: Styrene domestic profit remained at 170, EPS domestic profit decreased by 80 to 60, and PS domestic profit decreased by 80 to - 314 [5].

| P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | POY 1 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 2025/0 6/30 | 67.6 | 573 | 874 | 5030 | 7020 | 77.17 | 301.0 | 267 | 117 | 85.7 | 78.2 | 34434 | 240 | 0.35 | | 2025/0 7/01 | 67.1 | 571 | 861 | 4980 | 6990 | 78.11 | 290.0 | 287 | 132 | 85.7 | 78.2 | 34428 | 200 | 0.30 | | 2025/0 7/02 | 69 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/06/24 850 517 4480 4495 4483 560 -726 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/25 850 515 4398 4415 4400 478 -808 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/26 850 511 4379 4395 4385 459 -824 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/27 850 508 4346 4360 4347 582 -858 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/30 850 508 4334 4350 4334 570 -867 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 变化 0 0 -12 -10 -13.00 -12.00 -9 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对09（+68）附近。 MEG装置变化 陕西榆能40万吨单线检修。 周度观点 近端国内油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, after the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester start - up increased, inventory slightly decreased, basis strengthened again, and spot processing fees improved. In the future, TA inventory start - up will gradually return, and it will enter the inventory accumulation stage. The monthly spread driver may fluctuate greatly between PX inventory depletion and polyester benefit compression [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic maintenance continued to resume, the start - up rate continued to rise, Iranian devices stopped intensively, port inventory decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. In the future, the domestic supply will return, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [7]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increased, production and sales remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated. The demand side was weak, but exports maintained a high growth rate. There are also production reduction plans in the future, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [7]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - For styrene, the prices of related products changed, and the domestic profits of some products also changed. A comprehensive analysis of these data is needed for investment decisions [7]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, crude oil remained at 67.7, PTA inner - disk spot price decreased from 5275 to 5020, PTA processing difference decreased from 369 to 375, and polyester gross profit increased from - 34 to 256. The basis of daily average transaction was 2509(+254) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials with a capacity of 3.6 million tons reduced its load [1]. - **Market Situation**: After the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester start - up increased, inventory slightly decreased, basis strengthened again, and spot processing fees improved. PX domestic start - up remained stable, overseas Middle - East devices had unexpected shutdowns, PXN and its structure strengthened again [1]. - **Future Outlook**: TA inventory start - up will gradually return, and it will enter the inventory accumulation stage. The monthly spread driver may fluctuate greatly between PX inventory depletion and polyester benefit compression [1]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850, MEG inner - disk price decreased from 4594 to 4379, and MEG coal - made profit decreased from 681 to 459. The basis of spot transaction was around 09(+72) [7]. - **Device Changes**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton device was under maintenance [7]. - **Market Situation**: The near - end domestic maintenance continued to resume, the start - up rate continued to rise, Iranian devices stopped intensively, port inventory decreased slightly, downstream stocking levels increased slightly, the basis weakened, and coal - made benefits continued to expand [7]. - **Future Outlook**: The domestic supply will return, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6995 to 6855, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 70 to 79 [7]. - **Device Changes**: Not provided - **Market Situation**: Fujian Jinlun restarted, the start - up rate increased to 95.1%, production and sales remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated. The demand side was weak, but exports maintained a high growth rate [7]. - **Future Outlook**: There are also production reduction plans in the future, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production reduction [7]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased from 1690 to 1700, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased from 13500 to 13640 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 850, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 748, and the domestic profit of styrene decreased from 140 to 165 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of related products changed, and the domestic profits of some products also changed [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: After the near - end TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, polyester start - up increases, inventory slightly decreases, the basis strengthens again, and the spot processing fee improves month - on - month. TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly drive may fluctuate between PX inventory de - stocking and additional production cuts due to compressed polyester profits [1]. - **MEG**: Near - end domestic maintenance continues to resume, start - up rate keeps rising. Iranian devices stop operation intensively, port inventory slightly decreases, and coal - based profits continue to expand. In the future, the inventory accumulation range is expected to be limited, and it is expected to be in a volatile pattern [4]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The start - up rate has increased, production and sales remain stable, and inventory has slightly accumulated. The demand side is under pressure, but short - fiber exports maintain a high growth rate. The processing fee is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to industry production cut implementation [4]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and there is no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [4]. - **Styrene**: The profit of domestic styrene production has changed, and attention should be paid to price and profit trends [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 19 to June 25, crude oil prices decreased from $78.9 to $67.7, PTA internal spot price decreased from 5190 to 5050, and PTA processing fee increased from 247 to 417 [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device reduced its load [1]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 19 to June 25, the MEG internal price decreased from 4585 to 4398, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased from 672 to 478 [4]. - **Device Changes**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 19 to June 25, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6890 to 6870, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 100 to 62 [4]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of the original staple fiber reached 95.1% after Fujian Jinlun restarted [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 19 to June 25, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1715 to 1680, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13630 to 13370 [4]. - **Related Spreads and Indicators**: There are changes in spreads such as the difference between the blended rubber and the RU main contract, and the number of SHFE RU warrants decreased [4]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 19 to June 25, the price of styrene (in Jiangsu) decreased from 8100 to 7880, and the domestic styrene production profit decreased from 55 to 280 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - For PTA, the near - term TA operation rate continues to rise, polyester operation rate slightly declines, inventory accumulates, basis remains strong, and spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic operation rate decreases month - on - month, overseas continues to rise, PXN and its structure continue to weaken. In the future, the contradiction in bottle - grade chips may drag down the polyester load, TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting processing fees at high prices [2]. - For MEG, the near - term maintenance returns, the operation rate rises significantly, port inventory slightly accumulates, downstream stocking levels decline, and basis weakens. The fastest de - stocking stage at ports has passed, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in Iranian imports [7]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory decreases month - on - month. The downstream polyester yarn operation rate declines, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory accumulates month - on - month. It is expected that the processing fee will remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [7]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. - For styrene, the prices of some raw materials and products decline. The domestic profits of some products change, and attention should be paid to the market dynamics [11]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, crude oil rose by 3.3, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 18, PTA internal - market spot price rose by 15, while the naphtha cracking spread decreased by 22.10, and PTA processing fee dropped by 88 [2]. - **Device Changes**: The 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the MEG internal - market price rose by 20, and the MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, while the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 76 [7]. - **Device Changes**: The 900,000 - ton device of Satellite was under maintenance, the 400,000 - ton device of Yankuang increased its load, and the 900,000 - ton device of Hengli restarted [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose by 20, short - fiber profit increased by 1, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 20 [7]. - **Operation Conditions**: The near - term device operation was stable at an operation rate of 92.1%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month [7]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of Shanghai 3L rubber rose by 50, and the price of Hainan glue rose by 100 [7]. - **Market Conditions**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [7]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the pure - benzene (East China) price decreased by 85, the styrene (CFR China) price dropped by 15, and EPS domestic profit increased by 115 [11].

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/12 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 65.3 557 820 4845 6930 78.19 263.0 368 155 85.3 81.3 65665 200 0.45 66.5 561 818 4895 6930 73.27 257.0 419 118 85.6 81.3 68473 215 0.40 67.0 568 808 4830 6850 76.50 240.0 417 102 85.6 81.3 73663 225 0.70 66.9 574 817 4855 6880 83.34 243.0 388 113 85.6 81.3 87345 215 0.55 69.8 572 812 4825 6880 60.09 240.0 383 138 85.6 81.3 87345 220 0.25 变化 2.9 -2 -5 -30 0.00 -23.25 -3.0 -5 25 0.0 0.0 0 5 -0.30 近端TA开工逐步回升，聚酯在瓶片减产下开工进一步下行，库存去化，基差震荡偏强，现货加工费仍有改善；PX海内外 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 5/28 64.9 563 837 4880 6990 86.78 274.0 298 162 87.3 76.4 56248 180 0.65 2025/0 5/29 64.2 570 852 4950 6980 99.28 282.0 292 96 87.3 76.4 56248 200 0.65 2025/0 5/30 63.9 559 842 4945 6990 90.11 283.0 334 106 85.3 76.4 56044 220 0.35 2025/0 6/03 65.6 562 824 4915 6990 80.56 262.0 409 137 85.3 76.4 55840 200 0.35 2025/0 6/04 64.9 563 825 4865 6950 87.21 262.0 360 161 85.3 76.4 55840 1 ...