Macro Economic Overview - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with March CPI data indicating improvement, while manufacturing remains sluggish with a PPI decline of -2.5% [3] - Attention is on the upcoming April PMI data, which if above the threshold, could signal a positive outlook for industrial stocks [3] - The central bank is actively engaging in reverse repos, hinting at potential interest rate cuts, although caution is advised due to the Federal Reserve's stance [3] Market Sentiment - Recent trading volumes have decreased significantly, with the Shanghai market seeing daily transactions below 500 billion and Shenzhen around 300 billion [4] - Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD suggest a bearish trend, with a critical support level at 3200 points [4] Investment Opportunities - Three key sectors are highlighted for investment: - Technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and new energy, with significant investments from companies like ByteDance [4] - Consumer sector, featuring established brands like Moutai and emerging trends in prepared foods, with positive indicators from recent box office data [5] - Policy-driven opportunities, including state-owned enterprise reforms and increased freight volumes from the China-Europe Railway Express [5] Operational Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes maintaining a 50% position, gradually accumulating shares below 3200 points, and considering increasing positions if the market stabilizes above 3300 points [5]

3月31日，截至发稿，港股锅圈一度大涨超6%，成交额3662.2万元，换手率1.03%。 消息面上，3月28日，在家吃饭餐食产品头部品牌——锅圈食品(上海)股份有限公司(以下简称锅圈， 2517.HK)交出2024年成绩单。 2024年，锅圈全年收入64.70亿元，同比增长6.2%，核心经营利润3.11亿元，同比增长3.1%，实现收 入、核心经营利润双增长。同时，锅圈抛出约2亿元现金分红计划，拟派发现金股息较上年同期增长 39.8%。 与业绩稳健增长、回馈投资者相对应，2024年，锅圈在新店型开拓、新销售渠道开辟、会员经营以及产 业布局方面均获得良性发展。 作为起步于河南的现象级新消费品牌之一，锅圈秉承销供产一体化生态投资理念，依托万家门店、产品 创新、场景创新等，不断向市场输出极具质价比的产品。从业务展望来看，该公司将巩固目前在销售网 络、会员生态、产业端布局的既有优势，并在即时零售、出海业务等方面寻求增长点。 华泰证券认为锅圈是在家吃饭餐食产品龙头品牌，立足于高效的食材加工+物流供应链系 统，撬动加盟商万店渠道，为消费者提供"好吃不贵"的在家吃饭解决方案，形成规模效应的正向飞轮。 24年顺应理性消费趋势， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Jinlongyu, a leading player in China's grain and oil market, has reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the second consecutive year, indicating ongoing challenges in its business model of "low profit, high sales" [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the 2024 fiscal year, Jinlongyu achieved a revenue of 238.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.50 billion yuan, down 12.14% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's net profit has declined for four consecutive years, dropping from 6.00 billion yuan in its first year post-IPO to 2.50 billion yuan in 2024, representing a cumulative decline of over 58% [3][4]. Business Model and Challenges - Jinlongyu's low gross margin, which fell from a peak of 12.33% in 2020 to just 5.35% in 2024, has been a significant barrier to entry for potential competitors [4][5]. - The company faces high raw material costs, with direct material costs accounting for approximately 90% of operating costs over the past three years, limiting profit margins [5][6]. Diversification Efforts - To address stagnation in its core business, Jinlongyu is exploring new avenues such as central kitchens, soy sauce, vinegar, and plant-based meat products, although these ventures have yet to yield significant revenue [6][7]. - The central kitchen initiative, focusing on pre-prepared meals, has seen the establishment of 25 factories, but the business is still in its early stages and faces intense competition [7][8]. Food Safety Issues - Jinlongyu has encountered multiple food safety incidents, including allegations of improper handling of cooking oil and product quality issues, leading to a decline in consumer trust [9][10]. - The company has faced over a thousand complaints related to product quality and authenticity, further complicating its recovery efforts [10][11]. Overall Assessment - The combination of pressure on core business, weak performance in diversification efforts, and recurring food safety issues presents significant challenges for Jinlongyu as it seeks to recover from declining profits and market value [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the pre-prepared food industry in China, focusing on market size, major companies' revenue, and market share, to support leading enterprises in applying for specialized qualifications such as "Little Giant" and "Single Item Manufacturing Champion" [1][3][15]. Industry Overview - The pre-prepared food industry, also known as pre-cooked food, is essential for integrating various industries, meeting consumer upgrades, and ensuring residents' dietary health. It can be categorized into four types based on the degree of processing: ready-to-mix, ready-to-cook, ready-to-heat, and ready-to-eat [3][6]. - The industry has evolved through several stages, including foreign investment, local processing technology exploration, restaurant chain expansion, pandemic-driven consumer demand, and policy support for industry upgrades [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The pre-prepared food industry is currently experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support and changing consumer demands. The market is characterized by simultaneous scale expansion and structural adjustments [6][9]. - The penetration rate of central kitchens in the B-end has reached 35%, while the C-end has seen a 40% annual increase in sales of mid-to-high-end products, driven by live e-commerce [6][10]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is in a transitional phase with both "small, scattered, and weak" players and "high growth" characteristics. The top five companies hold less than 20% market share, indicating a fragmented market where over 80% is occupied by regional small enterprises [9][10]. - The industry is witnessing accelerated vertical integration, with leading companies acquiring regional brands and establishing control over the entire supply chain [6][9]. Policy Environment - The central government's first inclusion of the pre-prepared food industry in national planning has led to new regulations aimed at controlling preservatives and promoting standardization, which is pushing out small-scale production [6][10]. - The implementation of national standards for pre-prepared foods by 2025 is expected to further enhance industry quality and competitiveness [10][11]. Future Outlook - The report predicts that the pre-prepared food industry will continue to grow, with increasing international market penetration, particularly in North America and RCEP countries [6][9]. - The development of new consumption scenarios, such as camping and family reunion meals, is transforming pre-prepared foods from emergency supplies to a quality lifestyle choice [6][9].

Group 1: Baijiu Industry - The current PE-TTM for the baijiu sector is 19.31 times, which is at the 6.18% percentile over the past decade, indicating significant safety margins [1] - High-end baijiu brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to maintain market share through "price protection and volume control" strategies, with projected net profit growth rates of 13.3% and 12.7% for 2024 respectively [1] - Regional leaders such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Jinshiyuan are benefiting from channel penetration and the recovery of banquet scenarios, with sales growth expected to exceed 30% during the 2025 Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The beer sector continues to see high-end trends, with Qingdao Beer achieving an ASP of 4200 yuan per thousand liters and Yanjing Beer having over 25% revenue contribution from its U8 flagship product [3] - Functional beverages like Dongpeng Beverage, which holds a 31% market share, are rapidly expanding into coffee and energy tea, with a projected revenue growth of 45% year-on-year by Q4 2024 [4] - Health drinks such as Xiangpiaopiao's zero-sugar freeze-dried fruit tea have seen online sales double, with a projected PE of only 20 times in 2025 [5] Group 3: Snacks and Prepared Foods - Online sales for snack brands like Three Squirrels have surged, with a 200% year-on-year increase in GMV through Douyin, while Yanjinpuzi's quail egg product has annual sales of 1 billion [7] - The prepared food sector is benefiting from B-end restaurant recovery and C-end penetration, with companies like Anjifood seeing 30% of their revenue from prepared foods after acquiring Frozen Food Mr. [8] Group 4: Seasoning and Baking Supply Chain - Leading seasoning brands like Haitian Flavoring have reduced channel inventory to 2.5 months, while Qianhe Flavoring has over 50% revenue from zero-additive soy sauce, benefiting from restaurant recovery and household consumption upgrades [10] - Yeast leader Angel Yeast is experiencing over 25% growth in overseas revenue due to capacity release and cost reductions [11] - Innovations in raw materials are seen in companies like Lihai Foods, which has a 60% year-on-year increase in cream revenue, and Huirong Technology, with 30% of its plant-based cream revenue coming from exports [12] Group 5: New Tea Beverage Supply Chain - The IPO of Mixue Ice City has a significant impact, with a frozen capital of 1.77 trillion HKD, benefiting related A-share companies in the supply chain [14] - Companies like Anjifood and Xianle Health are positioned as suppliers of jam and frozen fruits, while Yudong Technology and Hexing Packaging are focusing on eco-friendly solutions and cost advantages in packaging materials [15][16] - The global expansion plan of Mixue, with 46,000 stores, could lead to a 30%+ increase in orders for supply chain companies [17] Group 6: Policies and Industry Trends - The Chinese government's "restore and expand consumption" policy is expected to result in over 300 billion yuan in consumer subsidies by 2025, directly benefiting the food and beverage sector [18] - Retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, with health food categories (low-sugar/low-fat) expected to exceed 20% growth [19] - Valuation shifts are evident, with many sub-sectors like seasoning having a PE of 28 times compared to a historical average of 40 times, alongside noticeable foreign capital inflows [19]