1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors show various trends, with some being affected by cost, supply disruptions, and demand changes. For example, energy - related products are strongly influenced by the escalating Middle - East conflict, while some agricultural products are affected by planting area forecasts and supply - demand fundamentals [20][60][120]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is still volatile. Although there were short - term rebounds, trading volume did not increase significantly. It is recommended to use grid operations for single - side trading, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a double - buy strategy for options [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The safe - haven property of the bond market has increased. With the central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity, the bond market continued to recover on Wednesday. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The macro - environment has increased disturbances, and the market is in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to be cautious due to the large fundamental pressure. For single - side trading, there may be pressure but also potential for phased increases. MRM09 spread narrowing positions should be exited, and seagull put options should be exited [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to be long on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may be in a high - level shock in the short term due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The outer - market 05 corn is expected to be bullish on dips, and the 05 corn is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips and wait and see for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the price is generally declining. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and use seagull put options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong shock. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanuts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [43][44]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to short the June contracts on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][47]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price of high - quality apples is firm. It is recommended to exit and wait and see for the May contracts on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [49][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to be in a slightly strong shock. It is recommended to go long on dips for the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials provide support, and the steel price is in a shock. It is recommended to maintain a slightly strong shock on the single - side, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56][57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbances have increased, and it is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at high prices. For arbitrage, enter the 5/9 spread reverse arbitrage at high levels, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price is in a high - level shock affected by the crude oil price. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical escalation and the Fed's hawkish stance have put double pressure on gold and silver. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors short cautiously with a shock - bearish idea. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [67][69]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The rise in oil prices has broken the Fed's bottom - support expectation, and the precious metal prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, and wait for low - buying opportunities for platinum. Wait for the low - level long - position opportunity of the platinum - palladium spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. - **Copper**: The price has broken through the key support, and the center of gravity has moved down. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [73][74]. - **Alumina**: Concerns about the supply of bauxite in Guinea have increased the price volatility. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, buy spot delivery products and short futures for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [76][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns have jointly increased the price shock. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [80][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro and micro factors have not resonated, and it fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to fluctuate with the aluminum price on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price may be in a low - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips after stabilization, wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][86]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize before considering going long lightly [91][92]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage [94][95]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range shock. It is recommended to conduct range operations on the single - side, and there is no suggestion for arbitrage and options [96]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a short - term shock and waiting for policy guidance. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and there is no suggestion for arbitrage and options [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic and foreign problems have led to a weakening of the lithium price. It is recommended to be in a downward - moving shock range on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [101][103]. - **Tin**: The geopolitical conflict has escalated, and the tin price remains weak. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side, wait and see for options [104][105]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Iran conflict has escalated, and both sides have started to attack oil and gas facilities. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage [106][108]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The situation between the US and Iran is still unclear, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather in Western Australia. The long - term impact of the conflict on the dry - bulk shipping chain needs to be observed. There is no specific trading strategy provided [109][112]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still in the off - season, and the EU carbon price has fallen to an 11 - month low. The short - term carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a weak shock, and the long - term trend depends on official policies, geopolitical events, and the global energy supply recovery progress. For the Chinese carbon market, the second - batch quota transfer mechanism is expected to boost market activity. There is no specific trading strategy provided [113][116]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation has escalated again. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: The main refineries have increased production cuts, and concerns about raw materials continue. It is recommended to be in a strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical drivers continue, and the cost is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - **LPG**: It has risen sharply following oil and gas. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continue, and the upward trend remains unchanged. For international LNG, it is recommended to wait and see; for US HH, the short - term market is relatively loose, and the subsequent trend needs to be observed. There is no specific trading strategy provided [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [135][136]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is short, and the fundamentals are good. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle - East conflict has intensified. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [142][144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales are light. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP enterprises has increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts on the single - side, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, and wait and see for options [152][153]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is weak. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156]. - **PVC**: It is rising in a shock. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [158][159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction. It is recommended to be in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [160][161]. - **Glass**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction. It is recommended to be in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction on the single - side, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and wait and see for options [162][163]. - **Methanol**: It has led the rise significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [165][166]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [168][169]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price is weakly adjusted. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell SP2605 - P - 5000 options [170][172]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market purchases based on rigid demand. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options [174][175]. - **Log**: The import cost has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][177]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 and NR 05 contracts on the single - side, hold the short position of the NR2605 - RU2605 spread, and wait and see for options [180][182]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The monthly average price of crude oil has continued to reach new highs. It is recommended to go long on the BR 05 contract on dips, hold the short position of the BR2505 - RU2505 spread, and wait and see for options [184][186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 18, the market sentiment in the northern ports was positive, with strong price - holding intentions from upstream suppliers and a slight improvement in market transactions due to a small amount of downstream tendering and release of rigid demand. Market participants have different views on the future. Some think that high port inventories and rising freight rates will limit price increases, while others believe that international tensions support high energy prices, leading some terminals to turn to domestic trade, and with rising coal prices in major production areas, the market outlook is positive [2]. - From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output was 76,289,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The average daily output in January - February was 1,293,000 tons, a decrease of 117,000 tons from the previous month and 4,000 tons from the same period last year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: The prices of coal in different regions and types have different changes. For example, in terms of origin prices, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal is 580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton; in terms of port prices, the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 coal is 723 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton. The overseas prices of Indonesian FOB Q3800 coal is 59.8 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 8.8 US dollars/ton [1]. - **March Long - term Agreement Prices**: The long - term agreement price of port Q5500 coal is 682 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in the northern ports) is 0 [2].

Group 1 - Coal stocks in Hong Kong have risen against the trend, with Yancoal Australia leading the increase by over 6%, Yanzhou Coal Mining up over 4%, and China Shenhua Energy rising by 3.2%, all approaching historical highs [1] - The ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation has driven up oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 5.7% yesterday and over 3% today to reach $107.2, the highest since March 9 [1] - Newcastle coal futures jumped by 9.3% in March, reaching $150 per ton, indicating an increased demand for coal as an energy alternative due to external shocks [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of key coal companies is as follows: Yancoal Australia at $45.520 with a 6.49% increase, Yanzhou Coal Mining at $16.630 with a 4.26% increase, China Shenhua Energy at $48.980 with a 3.20% increase, Power Development at $2.290 with a 2.69% increase, and China Coal Energy at $14.480 with a 2.55% increase [2]

焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/3/19 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1468.00 | -15.00 | -15.00 | -15.00 | 16.05% Peak Downs | 216.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -3.50 | 33.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1092.00 | -8.00 | 46.00 | 77.00 | 26.98% Goonyella | 216.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -3.50 | 32.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1420.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 20.00 | 12.70% 盘面05 | 1173.00 | 3.00 | 12.50 | 46.00 | 9.83% | | 安泽主焦 | 1450.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -120.00 | 13.28% ...

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Group 1 - The report highlights the upward resonance of oil and coal prices due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to significant price increases in both markets [5][7]. - The supply side remains tight due to both "price-supporting" and "compliance" production cuts, indicating a continued reduction in coal supply [4][10]. - The demand for electricity and coal is expected to extend due to trends like "Electrification of China" and "Token going overseas," with chemical coal consumption showing a steep second derivative increase [4][9]. Group 2 - The report discusses the strategic importance of coal as a resource, with a focus on the restructuring of coal valuation systems, drawing parallels to Warren Buffett's investment in Occidental Petroleum [4][16]. - In the U.S., policies are being implemented to bolster the coal industry to meet the rising electricity demands driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure [13][16]. - The coal supply-demand balance indicates a projected increase in coal consumption across various sectors, with significant growth expected in the chemical industry [20][91]. Group 3 - The report notes that coal production in major regions is tightening, with a reported decrease in coal output in early 2026 compared to the previous year [23][25]. - The coal import data shows a decline in imports from Indonesia, while imports from Mongolia have increased, reflecting shifts in sourcing strategies [48][49]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the steel industry in coal consumption, with low inventory levels potentially enabling price rebounds [79][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The news has a significant positive impact on the expected cost and price of steel. Fundamentally, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate and strengthen in the future, but further increase still depends on the demand side. Investors or operators need to prepare for a long - term volatile market, especially pay attention to the development of the BHP event and the changes in the Middle East situation [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On March 18, the main contracts 2605 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose first and then fell, closing with all intraday gains erased and even lower than the previous day's closing price. They reached new highs since February 2 and January 20 respectively during the session [7] - The trading data of the main steel futures contracts on March 18 are as follows: for RB2605, the closing price was 3140 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; the trading volume was 860,500 lots, and the open interest decreased by 34,623 lots with a capital outflow of 0.85 billion yuan. For HC2605, the closing price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the trading volume was 358,351 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,990 lots with a capital outflow of 0.21 billion yuan. For SS2605, the closing price was 14020 yuan/ton, down 0.92%; the trading volume was 96,445 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,205 lots with a capital inflow of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - The long - short positions of the top 20 in the black - series futures on March 18: for RB2605, the long - short difference was - 20,832 lots with a deviation of - 2.18%; for HC2605, the long - short difference was 2,948 lots with a deviation of 0.35%; for SS2605, the long - short difference was - 560 lots with a deviation of - 0.65% [8] 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On March 18, some rebar and most hot - rolled coil spot market prices rose. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Xi'an rose by 20 yuan/ton, and in other cities such as Nanchang and Tianjin rose by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil prices in Chongqing and Chengdu rose by 50 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively, and in other cities rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [9] - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise slightly. The KDJ indicator of rebar showed a potential dead - cross trend. The daily MACD red bars of both contracts narrowed [9] 3.1.3 Future Outlook - News: In March 2026, China further expanded the import restrictions on BHP's iron ore, fully suspending the procurement of core products such as Mac Fines and Newman Fines/Block, which led to a significant increase in iron ore prices [10] - Fundamentals: The weekly output of the five major steel products rebounded to a new high since early February, the inventory accumulation speed slowed down significantly, and the weekly demand has been rising for two consecutive weeks to a new high since early February [10] - Raw materials: After the Spring Festival, the port iron ore inventory rebounded and reached a record high since December 2015, with about 20 million tons from BHP's locked - in inventory. The steel mills' iron ore inventory has remained at a 23 - day availability level for three weeks. The shipment volume of imported iron ore in the past four weeks increased by 13.3% month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 6.6% month - on - month, and it is expected to recover in the future. From March 9 to 14, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased slightly compared with the previous week, with an average increase of only 0.8%, generally remaining at a relatively high level of 175,000 - 196,000 tons. The coking coal inventories of steel mills and coking plants have rebounded slightly after reaching new lows since late June and late July last year respectively [10] 3.2 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, mainly in manufacturing and service industries, and the cumulative investment of such projects has reached $108 billion [12] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized that central enterprises should continue to play a stabilizing role in the national economy, formulate scientific business goals, expand development space, and increase effective investment [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized consolidating the stable and positive trend of the industrial economy, implementing the new round of the ten - key - industry stable - growth plan, and starting the "15th Five - Year Plan" major projects [12] - From January to February 2026, the total raw coal output of the top 10 enterprises was 390 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83 million tons, accounting for 51.3% of the above - scale industrial raw coal output [13] - In 2025, the operating income of CITIC Special Steel was 107.373 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.68% [13] - On March 11, a ship carrying high - grade iron ore from Simandou docked at WISCO's industrial port [13] - From January to February, key steel enterprises produced 131.62 million tons of crude steel (a year - on - year decrease of 5%), 118.74 million tons of pig iron (a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%), and 129.58 million tons of steel (a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%) [13] - In early March, the output of key coal - monitoring enterprises was 64.44 million tons, with a daily average of 6.44 million tons, a 6.3% increase from late February and a 1.4% increase year - on - year [13] - The natural gas consumption during the heating season from last winter to this spring was 180 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of over 2% [13] - On March 17, the Baotailong Donghui Coal Mine project started, with a total investment of 3.007 billion yuan, a designed production capacity of 1.8 million tons/year, and a service life of 52.7 years [13] - In February 2026, China exported 4.63 million tons of steel plates (a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%), and 9.33 million tons from January to February (a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%); exported 1.19 million tons of steel bars (a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%), and 2.32 million tons from January to February (a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%) [13] - In the first two months of this year, the import and export freight volume of Ganqimaodu Port reached 8.025 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%, and the import and export value reached 13.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88% [13] - On March 17, Spain approved the release of up to 11.5 million barrels of oil reserves in 90 days to deal with the oil supply shortage [14] - An Indonesian coal mining company, PTBA, received approval for its 2026 coal production plan with a maximum annual production of 53.2 million tons [14] - In February, Japan's purchase of US oil increased by 1587.1% year - on - year [14] - India is expected to have a peak power demand of 271,000 MW this summer, and the government plans to require some imported - coal - fired power plants to operate at full capacity [14] - Since the US - Iran conflict, US diesel prices have soared 34%, reaching $5.04 per gallon on March 17 [14] - The tense situation in the Middle East has led to a serious shortage of LPG in India, and the government is taking measures to ensure supply [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts [16][18][21][28][29][36]

Group 1: Coal Industry Insights - The coal production in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in January-February 2026, while coal imports increased by 1.5% during the same period [2] - The electricity generation from thermal power plants rose by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for coal despite the production decline [2] - The report outlines three phases of potential coal price increases driven by international market dynamics, including reduced production from Indonesia and geopolitical tensions affecting oil and gas prices [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies in Coal Sector - The report suggests that the domestic coal price is expected to rise towards the 1,000 yuan mark as international prices increase, particularly influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply constraints [2] - Companies with overseas coal operations, such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia, are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the expected price increases [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal chemical companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Guanghui Energy, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from rising coal prices and increased demand for coal-based chemical products [5][6] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Qiu Tai Technology reported a revenue of approximately 20.9 billion yuan for 2025, a 29% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of about 1.49 billion yuan, boosted by a one-time gain from the disposal of part of its Indian operations [8] - The company aims to achieve significant market positions in mobile camera modules and IoT optical systems, with a focus on vertical integration and emerging optical technologies [8] - Keda Control, a company focused on smart mining, is also highlighted for its potential growth in the sector [5] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Performance - Wancheng Group achieved a revenue of 51.46 billion yuan in 2025, a 59.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a 301.8% growth [12] - The company plans to expand its product offerings and store presence, particularly in northern markets, to enhance its growth potential [12] - The report indicates that Wancheng's strategy to diversify its product range and improve supply chain management will further boost its profitability [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the lingering stagflation risk, along with cautious expectations for the peak season, inventory pressure in the industrial chain, and limited bright spots in the fundamentals, result in insufficient upward drive for the market. However, due to uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in coking coal and coke prices following crude oil, continuous disturbances in the iron ore supply, tightened liquidity expectations for some spot varieties, and the expected increase in hot metal production, there is still support at the cost end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate due to supply and geopolitical disturbances. In the long - term, the high inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be greater, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [1] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply, providing some support for prices. It is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound of finished products and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, with hot metal复产 possibly faster. The cost - end price has risen, and the spot support is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the actual pressure on the fundamentals remains due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot price is unlikely to rise significantly. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. It may be strong if the geopolitical conflict persists, and oscillate if it eases [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, with high upstream inventory and resistance in cost transmission. There is significant selling pressure on the futures market, and the high - level valuation above the cost line has a callback risk [2][15] - **Silicon Iron**: The market inventory pressure is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose and suppressing the upward price space. The current futures valuation is much higher than the comprehensive cost, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [2][5][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][5][14] 3.5 Steel - The inventory pressure remains, and the upward drive is limited. The spot trading volume is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, hot metal production is expected to rise, and the overall supply of five major steel products is expected to recover from a low level. The demand shows resilience but lacks bright spots. The inventory is moderately high, and it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. The price upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2557.35, down 0.31%. The steel industry chain index on March 18, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.08%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 4.31%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.80% [103][105]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責， 對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何 部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) Kinetic Development Group Limited 力量發展集團有限公司 （股份代號：1277） 自願性公告 有關永安煤礦及韋一煤礦的最新情況 茲提述力量發展集團有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」）日期為二 零二四年十一月十一日有關永安煤礦聯合試運轉的公告（「該公告」）。除另有界定者 外，本公告所用詞匯與該公告所界定者具有相同涵義。 永安煤礦的最新情況 永安煤礦位於寧夏回族自治區，南北跨度約為6.5公里，東西跨度約為3.6公里，礦區 面積約為21.7平方公里。於本公告日期，永安煤礦煤炭資源總量約2.24億噸，其中包 括控制煤炭資源量約6,322萬噸及推斷煤炭資源量約1.61億噸。主要煤種為肥煤、1/3 焦煤、主焦煤，洗選後的精煤為優質煉焦煤，具有低灰分、高粘結等特點，可作為焦 化用煤、煉焦配煤、動力用煤、液化用煤等。 永安煤礦為井工煤礦， ...