Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing slight movements while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw initial gains followed by a decline and a late recovery [1][2] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a strengthening yuan, which is expected to improve risk appetite [2][3] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, computer equipment, and automotive parts performed well, while tourism, energy metals, automotive services, and fertilizers lagged behind [1] - The technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 Index, led the major indices, with strong performances in the consumer electronics and semiconductor chip sectors [3] Investment Trends - Foreign capital showed confidence in Chinese assets, with net purchases of domestic stocks and bonds in August, indicating a positive outlook for the market [1] - There is a gradual shift of household savings towards the capital market, creating a sustained source of incremental funds [1][2] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend amidst fluctuations, with a focus on structural optimization to seize investment opportunities [1] - The current market liquidity remains active, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust market environment [2] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a slow bull trend, with the foundation for continued strength remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [3] - The upcoming long holiday may lead to a stabilization in trading activity, but the overall sentiment remains positive with expectations of further market improvements [3]

Group 1 - The current urea market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with daily production gradually recovering, but seasonal demand is not meeting expectations [1] - The low-end price of small particle urea in mainstream regions has recently touched 1580 yuan/ton, while the futures main contract price has been adjusted to around 1670 yuan/ton due to weak market sentiment [1] - There is still an expectation for demand improvement, with a need to monitor export orders and autumn preparation for fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The short-term "weak reality" is evident as the sluggish compound fertilizer market directly drags down urea demand, with sample enterprise inventories remaining at a historical high of 826,200 tons [2] - Compound fertilizer companies are adopting a "production based on sales" strategy, maintaining cautious procurement of urea and focusing on minimum safety stock levels [2] - The long-term "strong expectation" is driven by two main factors: the approaching end of the export window and the gradual initiation of storage work, which is expected to support demand [2] Group 3 - Supply is gradually recovering due to the resumption of previously shut down production facilities, with the overall industry operating rate exceeding 81% and daily production surpassing 200,000 tons [3] - The commissioning of three large urea production facilities in the third quarter adds approximately 1.5 million tons/year of new capacity, intensifying supply pressure and altering regional supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 4 - Due to lower-than-expected demand release and continuous supply increase, industry inventories have risen to 1,165,300 tons, nearly a 50% increase since early Q2 [4] - High inventory levels are causing significant capital occupation pressure for companies, leading some to adopt discount promotion strategies to accelerate cash flow [4] - The urea market is likely to experience a dual increase in supply and demand, with supply expected to rise due to the resumption of production and new installations, while demand improvement relies on the rapid execution of export orders and concentrated autumn demand release [4]

Report Overview - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Date: September 21, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the domestic urea spot market continued to decline. The market had sufficient supply, rising social inventories, and persistent supply - demand pressure. Low - price transactions dominated the market [2] Section Summaries 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - From September 15 - 21, 2025, urea futures contracts had similar prices with small overall spreads, showing a volatile trend. UR510 closed at 1,570 yuan/ton, opened at 1,586 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,608 yuan/ton, a low of 1,567 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.76%, trading volume of 6,745 lots, and an open interest of 5,219 lots. UR601 closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, opened at 1,666 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,704 yuan/ton, a low of 1,656 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 615,000 lots, and an open interest of 297,000 lots [3] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 19, according to Steel Union data, small - granular urea in East China's Hualu Hengsheng was priced at 1,650 yuan/ton (basis - 11 yuan/ton), in Central China's Henan Xinlianxin at 1,660 yuan/ton (basis - 1 yuan/ton), and in Northwest China's Ningxia Petrochemical at 1,530 yuan/ton (basis - 131 yuan/ton), reflecting local demand differences with mild overall fluctuations [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of September 19, 2025, according to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, there were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, a slight increase from last week, indicating a short - term market in a wait - and - see equilibrium [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - Supply: The urea industry is expected to achieve a net new capacity of nearly 4 million tons this year, with a capacity growth rate exceeding 4%. Coal prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Coal - based urea production maintains some profit, while natural - gas - based urea is in a loss state. If the loss persists, the operating rate of gas - based plants may decline slightly. The annual output growth is expected to be around 5% - 6%, but if the spot price drops further, the operating rate may adjust negatively, and the output growth rate may fall to 1% - 2% [10] - Demand: Traders are gradually picking up goods for export, reducing the possibility of a significant short - term inventory build - up. Although the pressure of pending orders and inventory has increased, leading to a decline in spot quotes, the market may experience a phased recovery as export channels gradually expand. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the industry fundamentals are expected to face pressure in the second half of the year [11] - Policy: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024 [11] 4. Market Outlook - This year, urea capacity is expected to grow by over 4%, and the output growth rate is about 5% - 6%, but falling prices may suppress the operating rate. On the demand side, export orders support inventory, while weakening agricultural demand pressures the market in the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve starting an interest - rate cut cycle, the macro - environment is becoming more accommodative. The urea market may have a short - term phased rebound, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals remain under pressure. Future attention should be paid to changes in the operating rate and export policies [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the urea market remains loose and has not reversed. Although the market shows oversold signals, it lacks driving forces and is currently bottoming out at a low level. Attention should be paid to potential rebound opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Since the weekend, upstream urea factories have mostly reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. There is still room for price cuts before the National Day holiday. The daily output of urea has recovered to over 190,000 tons, and high production suppresses prices. Near the Double - Festival, downstream has pre - stocking demand, and they buy on dips. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased but the growth rate has slowed, and terminal demand is weak. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume was 307,400 lots (+10,142 lots). Among the top 20 long and short positions, long positions increased by 6,149 lots and short positions increased by 10,783 lots. On September 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, a decrease of 275 from the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: Since the weekend, upstream factories have reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and some factories in Hebei quote 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, mainly for export orders [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 40 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On September 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 200,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.51% [10]

Group 1 - The company, Yuntu Holdings (002539), is currently preparing its Guangxi Guigang project, having obtained the necessary filing certificate [1] - The first phase of the project involves a 900,000-ton high-efficiency compound fertilizer initiative, which has received environmental assessment approval, with other preliminary approval procedures progressing steadily [1]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Outlook - Fertiglobe is a leading global producer of urea and ammonia products, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, UAE, with an 86.2% ownership by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company[2] - The company is optimistic about the urea market, expecting continued supply tightness due to high energy costs in Europe and potential production halts among fertilizer manufacturers[3] - Fertiglobe aims to achieve an EBITDA growth of at least $1 billion by 2030, based on comparable prices from the fiscal year 2024[2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Profitability - The company plans to enhance profitability by nearly 60% over the decade, focusing on operational efficiency and cost advantages to rank among the top quartile in the industry[2] - Fertiglobe emphasizes its cost advantage as one of the lowest producers of fertilizer globally, primarily due to low-cost natural gas as a feedstock[3] - The company is advancing its low-carbon ammonia projects, which are expected to command a price premium over traditional ammonia products, thereby supporting profit margins[4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Fertiglobe anticipates that global urea demand will exceed supply, with China’s urea exports projected at 2-4 million tons annually[3] - The global urea capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high throughout the decade, influenced by production halts in Europe and export restrictions from China[3] - The tight supply outlook is seen as favorable for urea prices and Fertiglobe's business prospects[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].

Group 1 - The company, Yuntu Holdings (002539), is preparing its Guangxi Guigang project in an orderly manner and has obtained the filing certificate [1] - The first phase of the 900,000-ton high-efficiency compound fertilizer project has received environmental assessment approval, and other preliminary approval procedures are progressing steadily [1]

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply Recovery, Limited Demand Support [1] Core View - Urea prices fluctuated this week, with the futures price slightly down and the spot price also decreasing. The supply has increased as maintenance devices resumed operation, while agricultural demand is scattered. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers has slightly improved, but urea production and sales are still weak, and enterprise inventories have continued to accumulate. The port is exporting, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and the positive - spread trading opportunity of the 1 - 5 spread [3]. Market Changes - **Price**: On September 19, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,661 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.12%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 1.22% [3][6]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis weakened. On September 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 36 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from - 51 to - 35 yuan/ton [3][8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan/ton, and the weekly range was from - 61 to - 48 yuan/ton [3][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 80.24%, an increase of 2.78 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output was 190,000 tons. Next week, some Shanxi manufacturers' devices are planned to stop or undergo maintenance, while the maintenance devices of Henan Xinlianxin are gradually resuming. It is expected that the spot supply will still increase, with the daily output ranging from 185,000 to 195,000 tons [10]. Cost - The anthracite market increased slightly. As of September 18, the含税 price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 10 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: National agricultural demand is scattered at this stage. Autumn harvest is underway in the Northwest, Jianghan, and Southwest regions. In Chongqing, the harvest of rice and corn is basically completed, and the soybean harvest is over 50%. In Sichuan, about 70% of the rice and 60% of the corn have been harvested. In Guizhou, about 40% of the autumn grain has been harvested. In Hubei, nearly 70% of the corn, nearly 60% of the soybeans, and nearly 20% of the single - cropping rice have been harvested [3][19]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 799,800 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved [3][19]. - **Other Industrial Demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.76%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 27,480 tons. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation for nearly two months. Urea port inventory was 837,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week. There were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 156,200 tons [3][25]. Key Points of Attention - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 22 日 尿素：趋势承压 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,661 | 1,670 | - 9 -1365 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,666 | 1,671 | - 5 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 112,725 | 114,090 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 297,254 | 286,823 | 10431 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,810 | 8,188 | -378 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 375,627 | 381,295 | -5668 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | -21 | -30 | 9 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -151 | -151 | 0 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最 ...